It all comes down to this point - the battle for 2900.We are approaching an exciting moment. A big battle in the far right corner, with SPX retesting the support line it broke out from last week, and meanwhile finding support on exactly the same level on the trendline going from the low late march to the recent low’s early may. A downwards trendline. An upwards trendline. Colliding.
And that exactly on the 2900 level. How is it possible? I don’t know.
Where will it go? No clue.
Should we step in if it breaks out? Hell yeah.
The battle of 2900.
This is the moment that waiting is more important than action.
Spx500long
LONG MCDKeep your trading simple
Bullish Swing
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I always leave 1/3 of my position for long term gains - moving my stop to my entry if I need to give room for the volatility or using trailing stop for maximum gains.
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H&S SPX, High R/R sell opportunityIn my previous post I indicated my change in sentiment from bullish to bearish because of two trendlines that were invalidated due to new local low’s. I initiated a good sell zone in the top blue bar, given that price would move there.
Yesterday we saw a strong rally up, moving into my sell zone, and even beyond. Instead of heading to my aimed level of 2885, the high around mid April, the bulls pushed it through till 2900.
I do not sell before I see confirmation/reversal. There was an early sign of reversal on the 5th of May at 05:00 but it was not strong enough for me to enter. Now, after a night of sleep we see market pushed till 2900, and got rejected. A perfect head and shoulder pattern is forming with rejection of the major psychological 2900 level.
We are still in my sell zone box after rejection and a correction downwards. For me that is enough indication to sell.
Sell at 2865, with a SL at 2905(tight) or 2925(wider) and a TP of 2755(tight) or 2670(wider).
This 2670 is the Weekly 200EMA and the 0.618 Fib retracement with the March 2180 low as starting point and last week's 2970 as high.
Below you can see my analysis from last post, waiting to see correction upwards to enter a sell:
Careful! Sign of strength in SPXIn my previous post I indicated a good R/R sell opportunity. A small update now given the latest development.
We see SPX is retracing back up. It found support on a trendline (clearly testing it), and locally we do not see a lower low but a higher low. It seems SPX is gonna test the resistance of the right shoulder top(orange line) that was recently formed. However, if it finds again support on the trendline it is a good opportunity to battle to new local high's.
I'm not saying the good R/R entry is invalidated, but a signal of strength has been given by the market with the higher low/support on trendline. Be careful. Let the market give clear signs of direction first - one of the two drawn scenario's - before you take position.
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Today we are looking to see if the uptrend can continue with the S&P (SPY, SPX, SPX500USD, etc). Longing the uptrend in equities has been profitable recently, let's assume that trend continues and talk about entries, exits, and key levels.
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1. S&P is currently in an uptrend within a channel as illustrated on the chart. We recently saw a reaction off the bottom of the channel which produced a long signal.
2. With the strategy in use we want to go long ONLY when Fractal Trend signals an uptrend (Green background color) AND Breakaway Scalper then signals an uptrend (Green bar color).
3. With a long signal having been recently produced, we are watching R1 and R2 for reactions. If rejected at R1 we will watch for a retest of the trend line or even a trip down to S1. If price can get past R1, then the levels to watch above are R2 and R3.
4. If the uptrend channel is broken, S1 and S2 are the next levels to watch for support.
5. Regardless of which way the price goes, we will be using the built in trailing stop on Breakaway Scalper to reduce risk and lock in profits if we move to the upside.
Buy opportunity - SPX retracingYesterday we made a new high at 2970, bullish signal. Of course, we see retracement.
Looking at the hourly graph, we see SPX is retracing towards 2850, the high off 14th of April and the battling around the same level early March.
Since RSI on hourly is getting oversold now, and we have a trendline starting on 7th of April and being tested twice, this could act as support. On top of that, we see the Daily 50 EMA coincides with this trendline.
Two supports and oversold market, a strong uptrend last month: seems a good level to buy.
If you want to be long, buy 2850 for guaranteed position, or wait for 2820 or 2800 for better entry.
Profit level for small trade: 2900 (Daily 100 EMA)
For more profits, and risk, profit level around 2930(0.618 fib level), 2950 (Daily 200EMA and Weekly 50 EMA), or around 3000-3100 if you are very bullish and can accept the risk.
Note that I am aware we broke out of the rising wedge yesterday, which is a bearish signal. We can trade down very fast, but I think we will see the bulls fighting back after breaking this wedge. Therefore, the long idea.
For a short opportunity, wait for retracement up to one of the profit levels mentioned for my long trade, and short. Could be a fantastic trade risk/reward wise.
S&P 500 Index (1H) / Primary Apologizes for the change in colours, I will try to keep a more standardized format from now on between the cash and the futures S&P 500 indices. We have a clean 5-wave move in green 1 or red A. Futures are down in pre-market, we might not get our 7th swing to make our pink flat X possible.
SPX - battle at 2900 - where will it go?Minor update for what is going on with SPX. I was bullish SPX and I believed the wedge outbreak on the downside was a false breakout, thus invalid. That made me update the previous wedge.
We see SPX is hovering around 2900 level(Daily 100EMA), and it is caught between the Daily 100 EMA and the Weekly 100 EMA. In a wider band we see it is caught in between the Daily 50EMA and Weekly 50EMA.
Around the 2930 we see Fib 0.618 retracement and around 2950 we see Daily 200EMA and Weekly 50EMA. Given all these levels, there is a lot of resistance and therefore I expect heavy battling around the 2950 zone. For good sell sentry, sell around 2950 with SL 3050 and TP 2850.
We will for sure see retracement from 2900 levels. On a small scale, back to 2850, on large scale, potentially 2800. With the new highs however, I do believe we will test 2950 and potentially break it.
The interesting zones are indicated by blue boxes.
One trade idea could be wait for retracement and buy around 2850 with SL 2775 and TP 2950.
With strong believe, enter anywhere long in the blue box and aim for 3000-3100. Why not wait for retracement? Good exit is far more important than good entry.
Note that my long term view is definitely bearish. I just think we are just not done yet with the uptrend.
Trade well.
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Another idea for SPX :)
New high's to be expected on SPXIn my last post I stated I saw upside till at least 2900 levels. Now we are there, I can continue makingnew assumptions.
Since we are in a clear bull trend this month, RSI is still not overbought and the market has shown very little sign of weakness, I am bullish.
We went from my previous post's level of 2760 to 2900, and I expect we will make new highs soon since we broke previous high and are now at a new local high of 2915.
If market is in doubt, we will hover around 2900. When weak, we could retrace to some levels indicated in the chart. With my bullish sentiment, I think we will move up after retracement to the 200 MA/EMA levels of around 2950-3000. Of course, we will find resistance here, but at the moment I do not see why we could not reach the high's of early March around 3100.
Very likely to see retracement here and there, but 3 bullish bars in a row, combined with a new high, and still room till moving averages and previous high's, I think this will ramble on.
If FED comes with very positive news or statements today, I think we will not hover too long and start heading towards 3000 in the next days.
New information might change my view, but at the moment definitely bullish with possible paths drawn. Note that I do not specifically expect every retracement line to head to the higher level indicated. It's just some levels of low's and some levels of high's.
SPX500USD TARGET TO 3000 ! NICE LONG TRADEHello !
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I'm waiting for this moments long time. Price 2 months resistance was broken. Price will check horizontal resistance. I think it will break and keeping up to next resistance zone /target again 3000/.
- Bullish candlestick
- 1D Resistance was broken/ 4H resistance was broken/
- Rsi up
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