SPX500 Plan for the Upcoming Week — H1 speculation during CovidContext & Navigating markets during COVID-19
Due to COVID-19 outbreak happening on top of an uptight bond market and weak economic fundamentals, the OANDA:SPX500USD — along with other major indexes — has tanked from its 3396 historical high in a straight line untill it found a yet to confirm or break H1 support on the 2855 area which happens to be the 50% fibonacci retracement of the December 24th 2018 to Febuary 20th 2020 rise fueled by the series of Federal Reserve's interest's rate cuts.
Since then the market has demonstrated extreme volatility on lower timeframes, thus highlighting profilic opportunities for speculators. After confused reaction to the FED's emergency 50 basic points rate cut on Tuesday, the market ended up rejecting twice the 50% retracement at 3130$, a fib level that usually isn't supposed to show much reaction, displaying how weak the buyers were by not being able to push throught 61.8% (much more attractive for short sellers risk management). The market was then vowed to retest, if not break its support. The bulls showed very low interest on the range support area of 2960 - 2920 (highlighted by fib retracement and fib extension) only a few hours before the weekly close, which led me to believe that we were going to break the support either before closure or at the next opening. MACD and RSI were not showing any kind of bullish signals anyway therefore i decided not to buy the support as i previously planed to. However volumes sudently rised up and printed a 3 min range which broke to the upside the 3min bearish trendline and closed the week with a 1 hour green engulfing candle, thus quickly sending a whole bunch of bullish signals :
Trade
As a result, i intend to buy any retracement of the aforementioned engulfing candle with an invalidation level under the 2830 level. Regarding the objectives of that trade, i wouldn't target anything higher than 3191 - 3270$ which are respectively the 61.8 & 76.4 retracement of the "corona" bearish wave; i'll even go so far as look to reinforce my daily shorts on that very atractive area. Average risk ratio of the trade is 1/4 (2.5 stop for 10% gains) but that might change slightly given the price you enter at. Targeting new historical highs from there seem completly unrealistic and that is especially considering the underlying context and daily technical structure which seems to be a bearish trend that may drag us to as low as 2700$ if not way lower (see my future long term analysis on the stock market).
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Go easy on leverage and don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
Kindly,
J.M.K
