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Spx500long

Something's not right here.The indicator on the bottom is called the cash in/cash out indicator and it's averaged over 100 periods. It indicates net selling since the first Jpow rate cut at the end of July. There has been net selling to the tune of a running sum of -124,924,564,001.and some change the past 100 trading days on SPY. But, we're now up another 8% from the lows of 10/08.. That's a divergence. It doesn't make sense. In order for there to be a healthy bull market/trend there needs to be the normal breathing of the security price. Trend, counter trend, trend, counter trend. Now it's never that simple but for something like the SPX to go on such a tear over the course of a month is not normal. Especially when you have net outflows on both SPY, and the QQQ. That means more people are getting out than in. But the market's going up, quick like. We're not trading on fundamentals or earning's. We're trading on fed fuel and headlines. Meaning the market is pricing in on hell of a deal, and expecting more QE if shit goes sideways (which they'll probably get). "As the central bank’s balance sheet has expanded, the S&P 500 has grown at almost the exact pace." "The results: a $175 billion expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.07 trillion, representing growth of 4.5% since the operations began. During that time, the S&P 500 has risen just shy of 4%." www.cnbc.com We're inflating a bubble. Again. If we don't have some sort of a correction or pullback shortly i'm expecting a blow off the top and it'll be fucking ugly.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
2
SPX Breaking record for broken recordsI thought I’d include a little oped and some political analysis seeing as how that is part of my expertise & biggest passions. This publication was intended to be made at the start of the market open but I got wrapped up in this circus called life; C’est La Vie. The SPX 500 index is shattering all analysts expectations as Trump did say we would ”Win BIGLY!...winning so often that we‘d get tired of winning!” , and in doing so while both hands tied behind his back is a PHENOMENAL (and truly ironic; in the sense that they want to impeach him.) ahead of the systemic breakdown of the deep state. I truly detest that conspiratorial connotations attached to that entity, what else do you call a cabal of unelected officials (mostly Obama holdovers) in the highest levels and upper echelons or our government literally conspiring with the legacy media in cahoots with big tech and the propaganda engine that is: Jeff squared (Zucker/Bezos) & lets not forget to give a shoutout to Media Matters Tom Steyer for letting their hatred of one New York businessman/real estate tycoon be substantially greater than their love or our constitutional democratic republic— -as the slow moving coup commences to unseat a duly elected official , WallSt once again slaps Adam “Schifty” Schiff & Nancy “Powerless” Pelosi right across the race with the metaphorical equivalent of political chess mate with milestone after historic achievement after milestone after historic achievement.. •.Kim summit • Energy sufficiency • >2 Dozen NASDAQ ATHs • ROARING economy in an otherwise unsettled and anxious; polarized social environment despite 401(K)s and wage growth • Not to mention historic unemployment and • Only President to fulfill every campaign promise in modern history.. • Defeated caliphate and Baghdadi The list could go on... I’ll include a more in depth, meticulously written oped when I get on my PC (yes I’m on my mobile phone right now) including and especially pertaining to the modern history from the start of the postmodern era and why it is quintessential for traders to understand modern history (From post World War II era 1945 is a solid place to start) and how it is literally The combination of the series of events that took place Between 1939 to 1945 where America was ranked 17 out of 17 in terms of military my versus just six short years later leaving 2 empires and Europe in ashes as the Phoenix and Not only military but economic powerhouse has been us ever since, a fact l I think is often overlooked/undermined (our economic leadership and not just military) Now with an unstoppable economic track record; SPX is clearly flourishing. When all is said and done history will remember President Trump has all of the most consequential POTUS in history...believe me I was never a fan (at first) however I am a patriotic objective and pragmatic individual (unlike our elected officials) and when I see something that is good for the nation, regardless of the uncalibrated moral compass of the POTUS in question — he is still our commander-in-chief and it’s funny because i travel very frequently and often hear dnc hacksn in the legacy media say that the world is laughing at us because of his behavior; from my experience this is a falsehood.... Most of the people that I talk to would wish they had a president as fervently dedicated to putting nationalistic policy agendas in motion—- “ America First” and their nations respect his unapologetic, magnanimous persona.... but I digress. I will update more later... In the meantime I will proceed with more signals! I have been slacking as of late and for that I am double sorry. Follow / like / share / subscribe if you want to hear more from me about Political science and consumer based sociology, modern history and current events. @a1mTarabichi I apologize for the almost 4 H late publication!! You know what they say... Better late than never but never late is better..
SP:SPX
by a1mtarabichi
In For A Big Move SomewhereAs my previous posts may have shown, i'm not really a huge fan of this rally. We truly do live in the twilight zone right now and TA is being washed out by many different factors including news, QE that's not QE, rate cuts, tweets, hopium, etc. Technically we've been on this $23 rally on declining average volume, on massive RSI bearish divergences on every TF including the monthly, and up straight out of a half completed descending triangle. Now there's nothing stating this can't keep pumping from here but it seems like the China happy talk crack pipe got a little too hot the past couple days and we've stalled out. We've left multiple gaps down below, and that mixed with the low volume we had on the way up we could see this proverbial house of cards get blown down with a pretty small gust of wind. It seems like the futures traders are the ones who have been sending us higher and it seems like they've wanted to turn this over the past day or two. With the Bollinger Bands on the hourly tightening, which generally precedes a move in either direction, the market has been working off it's 'overboughtness' the past couple days. we could definitely just be bull flagging, but those gaps are like a nagging itch in the back of the markets head that needs to be scratched. Keep that in mind. Be wary and goodluck.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
1
I mean we do live in the twilight zone As everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these negative divergences and this entire pump has been on half volume. Here in the next week few weeks one of two things is going to happen. 1.) We truly are in the twilight zone and all TA is essentially null and voided by rate cuts, QE that's not really QE, and just cheap and fast capital/leverage sending us on another leg up from here. 2.) The technicals end up playing out and we break downwards out of this wedge and make our way down to at least the 0.382 fib ($2569) or roughly there abouts. That is also likely where the 200 period MA will be as well. BUT, weekly MACD just crossed, and RSI is breaking the downtrend. There needs to be a conviction break of the top of the ascending wedge on higher than average volume for me to start thinking differently. I don't buy this bullshit for one minute until we do. Until then i'm short SPY and long bonds. Top of the bollinger is 3059.
TVC:SPXShort
by merkd1904
1