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Spx500long

Buying SPX at previous resistance.US500 - 8h expiry - We look to Buy at 3851 (stop at 3825) Trades at the highest level in 6 weeks. An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning. The previous swing high is located at 3912. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Bespoke resistance is located at 4065. We look to set longs in early trade for a further test of the fragile looking resistance. Our profit targets will be 3925 and 4060 Resistance: 3912 / 3925 / 4065 Support: 3869 / 3850 / 3800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
Time to forecast the quick run upIn addition to wave theory I have developed a line theory of sorts. I draw lines based on only two points to judge support, resistance, or potential trends. I personally do not call things a trend until 3 occurrences are observed so marking these lines based on two points are not a trend. I draw the following: Red lines = Beginning of wave 1 to top of wave 2 generally contains entire impulsive wave. Green lines = End of wave 3 of 1 to end of wave 5 of 1 generally gets end of wave 5 of 3. Yellow lines = Beginning of corrective wave (A1) to end of wave C3 generally gets end of corrective wave (C5). Blue lines = End of Micro 2 to end of Macro 2 or 4 confirms end to macro impulse. White lines = End of wave 2 to end of wave 4, break beyond confirms impulse is over. I have remained in the camp of still being in Intermediate wave 5 down for at least a few more weeks, but some of the Line Theory above along with Elliott Wave Theory has me thinking otherwise. There are two main reasons I believe Cycle wave A has likely ended. 1 - Some Elliott Wave (EW) theorists hold that Wave 4 cannot go into the same realm of Wave 1 which has now occurred as of Friday. Intermediate wave 1 ended with a bottom of 3886.75. While this level remained a solid resistance, it was broken on Friday and Intermediate wave 4 is now above it. While this is a principal or rule of EW theory to some, I have seen these broken multiple times in my studies that otherwise kept waves intact and I do not give strong consideration on its own. 2 - Two major breaks with my light blue lines. Minor 2 inside of Intermediate 1 to Intermediate 2 was broke on October 25. This would confirm the current impulse has ended. Second, the light blue lines from a micro 2 to a macro 2 or macro 4 are always downward when that is the direction of the trend Minor 2 inside of Intermediate 3 to the current position (assuming end of Intermediate 4) is nearly flat while barely downward in the moment. This is stemming from the Minor 2 top at 3907.07 to the current top of 3905.42. Monday will likely tip this line upward. Here is the chart of my old theory with the two violations. If we are still in Cycle A and Intermediate wave 4, we have retraced 65.93% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement which puts this into the final quartile based on historical data. New Theory - Cycle B The only two things I do not like about this theory is that Intermediate wave 5 inside of Primary 5 would have been quite short at only 6 days. Granted this tied the all-time minimum length so its not impossible. Secondly, my early top estimates are around 4600, however, our recent gains have us moving so fast that we could hit that mark well ahead of schedule. Granted we will swing up in Primary wave A, down in B and then back up to our final top during wave C. I plotted out the full length of the bear market back on July 4th ( ). At that time I forecasted the length to be around 813 from start to finish which would place the bottom around March 2025. I also plotted the bottom in October this year and next major top in the summer of 2023. On August 20th, I broke down what a bear market over 813 trading days would look like based on historical wave lengths and relationships ( ). Cycle wave A is was estimated to last around 25% of the length of Supercycle wave 2. This would place Cycle wave A ending around October 18th. As of now, the bottom was October 13th, which is only 3 trading days earlier than estimated. This implies the bear market bottom remains on track for around March 2025 for now. If we are in Cycle wave B now, this would mean the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand SuperCycle 5, SuperCycle 2, Cycle wave B and most likely Primary A, Intermediate 1, Minor wave 4. The full short reference to this point is 152BA14. Total stats for Cycle wave A had it begin at 4818.62 on January 4, 2022. It ended 195 trading days later at 3491.58. By October 13, 2022, the market had dropped 1327.04 from top to bottom which was a loss of 27.54%. Projection for Cycle wave B: Gain 1108.42 points over 190 days. LENGTH: Based on waves ending in 152B, the models weakly forecast the full length of Cycle B to last 29, 39, 65, 143 or 223 days in length. 142 days is near early summer estimates around May 10, 2023 while 223 days lines up with the late summer 2023 estimate near September 5. Based on waves ending in 52B, the same lengths are possible with the addition of 117, 146, and 165 days. The most model agreement is 195 days which would tie the length of Cycle A and end around July 26, 2023. Lastly, waves ending in 2B provide strongest model agreement at 98 days (March 23, 2023) followed by 195 days again. Waves ending in 52B tend to comprise 21-27% of the wave they reside inside. If the overall larger wave is around 810 days (new target based on Cycle wave A length), 21% could make Cycle wave B 170 days long while 27% is 218 days. Even though waves ending in 152B rarely last the same length or longer than the wave A that precedes them, I will place the estimate at 190 days for now. GAIN: Based on waves ending in 152B, the first quartile of movement retracement of wave A is at 51.30% while the median retracement is 71.43% and third quartile is 72.07%. Wave B has retraced 113.17% of wave A before which would present new all-time highs for the index if that occurred here. Waves ending in 52B have a first quartile retracement of 67.02%, median at 81.39% and third quartile of 94.28%. Lastly, waves ending in 2B have a reduced first quartile at 58.61%, median at 76.51% and third quartile of 88.81%. FORECAST: For now, I am projecting a top around 4600 by mid to late July 2023. This would be a gain of 1,108.42 points, or 31.75% off the bottom, in nearly 190 days. Based on these projections I am plotting Primary wave A and wave B at the following locations. PRIMARY WAVE A tends to contribute 12.5 – 61.93% to the length of the overall wave it resides inside. With an overall projection at 190 days, this could make Primary wave A 22 – 117 days long. The first quartile is 23.77%, median is 35.19%, and third quartile is 52.91%. That equates to day lengths of 45, 67, and 100 respectively. Wave As in generally account for around 25% of the waves the reside in. We will bump the estimated length to around 50 days which aligns with the final trading day before Christmas. The movement tends to contribute 24-156% of the overall move with the first quartile at 49.86%, median at 73.33% and third quartile at 89.84%. These find levels could place the next market top in 2022 at 3756.60 (already past), 4044.29, 4304.38, 4487.44, and 5223.26. At the breakneck pace the market has travelled in two weeks, a top around 4375-4430 is most likely. PRIMARY WAVE B tends to contribute 8 - 50% to the length of the overall wave it resides inside. The potential lengths based on the minimum, quartiles, and maximum would be 15, 24, 41, 60 and 95 days long. Additional datapoints can provide more numbers when considering the historical relationships between waves A and B. Wave A tends to be at least twice the length of wave B pitting the potential median length of this wave B near 22 days long. When considering the first quartile relationship wave B could be longer at 66 days. There is a Federal Reserve meeting at the beginning of February which would be approximately 25 days into wave B and another in late March at 59 days into wave B. We will plot the bottom of B at the latter meeting for now as the Federal Reserve should be able to see some inflation improvement from the 2022 rate hikes and the legislative agenda of a new Congress. Wave B’s movement is likely to make up 18-45% of the larger wave which would take it to roughly today’s trading prices. Coincidently, in March 2023 this would be around the market’s current resistance line. The line that began at the beginning of the bear market with the second point at the end Primary wave 2 is roughly the same as the line from the end of Primary wave 2 and Primary wave 4. These have been resistance lines for the market thus far, but once we break above them, they are likely to become new support levels. This would see wave B lose about 600 points or 13% over 59 days in the first quarter of 2023. These dates and levels will change as more data comes in from Primary wave A and line theory is plotted as well. The final set of projections will be the intermediate waves inside of Primary wave A. Wave 1 could last 5-10-13 days based on the quartiles and it is currently at 11 days. I project it to currently be in the final leg of Minor wave 5 with the Federal Reserve likely being the top and end of Intermediate wave 1 at 14 days long. The quartiles could deliver Intermediate wave 1 gains of 280-336-677 points. So far we have gained 413.84 which is above the median and we are not done yet. 677 points is possible placing the top around 4168 which is another 200 points up over 3 days. However, my line theory could place the top around 4030 which is just over 100 points from Friday’s close. Early guess is folks believe the Fed is taking a breather while my analysis is telling me they are about to do something unexpected set to temporarily shock markets. Wave 2 could last 1-4-5-8-17 days based on minimum-quartiles-maximum. The ratio of wave 1 length to wave 2 narrows the field to 2-5-11 days long. I will plot it around 5-6 days for now. The market could be looking at a drop of 172-220-358 based on the quartiles for movement inside of the larger wave while movement based on 1:2 ratios points at quartiles of 295-367-452. I will plot around a 330 drop for now. This places the bottom the day after election day. The market will likely rejoice if there is guaranteed gridlock in Washington. This is a perfect place to begin an expansive wave 3 rally. The data gets looser the more estimated variables deeper we get so I won’t get too specific yet. Based on contribution to larger wave, wave 3 could last 8-14-19-22-27 days. Based on relationship to wave 1 it could last 7-16-23-35 days and based on it relationship to wave 2 it could last 9-33 days. I will plot it around 17 days for now. CPI release would be 23 days deep so that is something to consider as well. The gain could take us up near 4300. Wave 4 could see a drop down toward 4100 over 5 days before wave 5 finishes out Primary A before Christmas. Ultimately the run up will not be close to sustainable which will finally force everything down where it belongs. The billionaires stating the economy is not in a good position will be correct soon, but lets enjoy the run up while we can.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
SPX update Oct 28thTodays candle, if it closes up (it seems that it will), going to cancel the topping pattern candles we had last 2 days, means more squeeze to come. Next stop is at 3907-09SPX for the top of this move. Support is at 3725-35SPX and I will be buying it for that last target with a stop I have posted in comments this am: That my 50% short was stopped at BE other 50% I took off after the AMZN move, also some protective longs sold yesterday evening at a loss and rest this am with a small gain. I went back to sleep in am and now its a more clear picture to me. Im still in that B wave down camp, only it might be a start of a new wave and that C can be shorter as we are approaching 3907-09. If it does want to extend then we could see very well 4k, but Im not in that camp just yet. My target is the same for the next low - 3690-3718SPX at min, below we could see a retest of Oct lows, which I personally think will be re-tested and it should make new lows into 34 and 32 handle. Again there is no more crash window, but month of Nov is a seasonally bearish month after Oct high! Note this, that its bearish during the bear market, which we are now! Many will be looking for a bullish month of Nov based on regular seasonal pattern. My swing short is quite under the water after those being BE last night, Im holding those for my targets mentioned above
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17
The market is ready to turn, will it?Analysis of the spx 500 index 10/27/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index. And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day. What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at 3830. Yesterday we saw a stabilization in motion and a decline in the market, as I mentioned earlier idea link below. In the near future, I expect an attempt to develop a correction. Today I expect that the market will continue to develop a correction and reach its bottom at 3780-3750. However, if this attempt is broken, then the market will continue its growth, where you need to look for places to open short positions from the level of 3970. What I'm looking forward to today: Today, I continue to expect the beginning of a correction and an attempt by the market to go down to the level of 3750. However, the market also has the possibility of a sharp fall in the index, so long positions are prohibited. Here are my trading recommendations for today. What I recommend If you want to go short: Short positions are possible from 3950 which would be a perfect place to sell this week, limit your losses. If you want to go long: Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you are out of the market: Long positions are possible from the level of 3750, but it is risky. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3970, limit your losses. Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
1
Long term chartThis is how I see the whole move developing into end of Q1 of the next year. I do expect we will bottom on Mar/Apr (May if stretched) 2023 and then rally up into a bigger B wave up. There is a chance that we will see 1550-1750SPX as well as 4300-4500 within next 10 years, doubt we see new highs till after 2032 Please note Im not a Nostradamus or a person who predicts the future, my view can be changed at any time if I see changes on long term charts. Few numbers to watch - 3196 is 61.8% retracement off 2020 lows - 3238 is where 38.2% retracement off 2009 lows Maj support for the whole move down is at 3200-3240SPX - A wave B wave up to 4k+- (to be determent) C wave down to my low 24 handle next year to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
Chop Chop continues. Its Friday - Dont Overtrade!No follow through today, really in a no mans land. A bull flag is a worry for the bears and the H&S (which is quite big) is a worry for the bulls. Peak your side:) Wont rule out a move to 3770-80SPX to have everyone believe that we have broken the bull flag to the upside, then we finally reverse and re-visit Oct 2nd low at min Im seating out and waiting for a right setup to come as well as holding my swing short. Dont want to miss the bus when the things starts moving. Its Friday, DO NOT OVER-TRADE! Keep your weekly gains, dont give those back!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
I'm going all in.Dear Trading View Fam, I will throw everything at this level as I have a bias that the bottom for the S&P has been reached. My speculation is based around that by the time the good news comes out and the sad news of unemployment numbers increasing, the bottom is nearly always in before hand. I think we have reached peak fear and fear itself has become a bit of a bubble. Even if the bottom is not in a reasonable rally needs to happen before we even consider going lower. As price doesn't go up forever, it also doesn't go down forever. This is my personal strategy and have no fear max bidding the running of stops below 3600 and closing of gap. I think earnings come out relatively neutral and that should be the catalyst to sweep the 3600 levels. On the lower time frame it should look like a reverse head and shoulders pattern. A small reminder that what I will do is considered to be classed as an irresponsible trade and please don't copy trade. However for me my gut is telling me buy and TA is telling me to sell. I'll go with my gut on this one. Have a great week all.
SP:SPXLong
by Monovon
3605 a small but important level before the rise to 3840.Analysis of the spx 500 index 10/20/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index. And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day. What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at 3695. And over the past trading day, we saw a slight decrease in the index, but there was no sharp drop, the market continues to be in the support zone. Today the market has every chance to fall to the level of 3605. However, if this attempt is broken, the market will fall to the level of 3200. Thus, globally, nothing changes. What I'm looking forward to today: Today at the open, I expect the market to try again to drop to the level of 3605-3670. But there is also a high probability of a sharp fall to the level of 3200 on the market. Therefore, long positions are prohibited. Here are my trading recommendations for today 10.20.22 What I recommend: If you want to go short: Short positions are possible from the 3840-3815 level, this will be the ideal place to sell this week, limit your losses. If you want to buy: Long positions are prohibited. If you are not in the market: Long positions are possible from the level of 3605 - 3570. If you want to open a short position, it is better to do it from the level of 3840 - 3815, limit your losses. Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. If you want to help me promote my content, then press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation and help promote the content. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
2
Buying SPX previous resistance.US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3687 (stop at 3613) Buying pressure from 3560 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. A weaker opening is expected to challenge bullish resolve. Support is located at 3680 and should stem dips to this area. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 3857 and 3900 Resistance: 3840 / 4140 / 4600 Support: 3680 / 3590 / 3200 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA