Get started

Spx500short

Dumb money is about to have the rug pulled againUsing Patterns and Technical Analysis including dumb/smart money I show what I believe is a reversal about to happen. It will be forming the right shoulder of a large Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the daily which will continue the bear market. I also believe the downside will soon accelerate after one more up after it reverses next week. Note: I use only public available indicators in all my charts. Nothing is custom or private!
SP:SPXShort
by TheUniverse618
12
Era of mean reversion, SPX year timeframeHi traders, I'm sure everyone who watches markets has made some kind of chart like this over the past six months, but I thought I'd share for those of us more comfortable with reading price action rather than economic reports or the news (obviously one needs both to be a truly excellent trader or analyst). I marked off with the pink vertical lines every low during a correction of SPX below its 21 year EMA (yellow line), before it started back up over the 21 EMA again. Soon after that low, the 21 EMA crosses the 21 year SMA of the Bollinger Bands (red line). Highs just before each of the pink vertical lines are marked by circles. The periods of both the correction low (pink vertical line) and the aftermath (21 EMA crossing 21 SMA) represent some of the toughest periods in recent economic history, at least as measured by this particular market. NOT ADVICE: From a trader's perspective, assuming we're starting to see another correction that will follow a similar pattern (i.e., a correction in which price crosses down over 21 EMA and hits a low before crossing back up), a reasonable target for SPX to cross down over the 21 EMA would be 2169, assuming 3:1 reward/risk. Corresponding stop-loss would be 4610 (NOT ADVICE). On this high timeframe I interpret that 4610 value not as any kind of actual stop loss for an actual trade, but as a rational expectation for the highest SPX level we can expect over the next few years during the correction. NOT ADVICE On a (even) darker note, the CT moving average crossover indicator currently registers "impossible" for the 21 EMA to cross the 21 SMA. To me that suggests either (1) that a much greater drop of currently unknown proportions in SPX is required below the 21 EMA (i.e., below 2169) to bring the 21 EMA down to the 21 SMA or (2) a period of consolidation and slow drift toward the 21 SMA, in order to shrink the difference between the 21 EMA and 21 SMA. I suppose the former could be called a "hard landing" and the latter a "soft landing". In my opinion, the "impossible" reading on the CT moving average crossover indicator suggests the latter scenario is at least the more rational position to take, at this point, though I plan to be ready for either scenario, of course. NOT ADVICE Good luck, everyone.
SP:SPX
by jer8877
SPX to see a temporary move higher?US500 - 22h expiry - We look to Sell at 4018 (stop at 4057) Buying pressure from 3867 resulted in all the initial daily selloff being recaptured. An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning. A move to 4022 will form an intraday bearish Gartley pattern. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 3921 and 3901 Resistance: 4017 / 4022 / 4086 Support: 3924 / 3900 / 3820 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
1
"Crash landing" instead of "soft landing"?Yesterday, U.S. inflation came up in line with expectations, and the market continued to enjoy relief after last week’s route. However, while the FED is progressing in fighting soaring prices, many problems are still on the horizon (declining corporate profits, rising unemployment, the persistence of tight monetary policy, problems in the banking sector, etc.). As such, market developments are starting to align for the “crash landing” instead of the “soft landing” that everyone was so eager to forecast just a month or two ago. With that said, we remain bearish on the U.S. stock market and expect it to decline by 20-30% in the coming months. Accordingly, we maintain our price target for SPX at $3 400. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
14
US02Y: BOND MELTDOWN / 4.00% CROSS / MACD CONVERGENCE / RSIDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. POINTS: 1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with it's lowest 1% points. 2. Overlapping Orange Line represents ES1! a US Market Future. 3. Dotted Green Lines represent continuous downward momentum in past Bear Markets (2002 & 2008). 4. Bubbles overlapping dotted green lines represent initial break of supporting bond percentage %. IMO: In my opinion the most concerning factor to take into consideration when it comes to current bond positioning is the STEEP RISE IN PERCENTAGE especially when the overall US market momentum is tied to BOND PERCENTAGE during both RISES & FALLS & the STEEPER THE INCLINE THE STEEPER THE DECLINE can become. MACD: Notice a complete meltdown of Bonds when MACD confirms convergence to MEDIAN & eventually breaks past median and falls into into negative territory. RSI: Notice that unlike in other recessions RSI levels have seen more consistent exposure to MEDIAN of 50. But as of lately from a MACRO perspective that is not the case as we have seen current RSI levels linger around 70 or above in EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY. SCENARIO #1: In a very BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through a complete free fall. SCENARIO #2: In a less BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through an extended consolidation phase with PERCENTAGE LINGERING ABOVE 4%. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:US02Y
TVC:US02YShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
SPX - bottom in 2024 (NEW)hi traders! In September this year we have published a trading idea where we identified the Rising Broadening Wedge on SPX chart, which is a bearish pattern and we predicted more downside to come: In November we looked at the chart from a different angle and we published the idea where SPX continues the downtrend as it's getting rejected from the downsloping resistance line: Both publications are still valid and we expect those targets to be reached. Today, in this trading idea, we would like to show you something very interesting on a monthly time frame. What you can see on the chart is that: -Major trendline was acting as a support from the beginning of 2009. It's a very important support as we've never seen a monthly close below this trendline. In 2020 (COVID crash), the price faked out but eventually it closed above the trendline. -Last retest occured in March/April 2020 -We expect that the next retest of this key trendline will be in 2024 as probably the recession will get worse in 2023 . On the other hand, we don't expect such a huge drop like in 2008 /2009 when SPX dropped 57 %. False breakout below the trendline may occur like in 2020 but we believe that a monthly close will be above this major trendline. 2023 and 2024 will be a great time to accumulate stocks (and crypto) at huge discounts. The opportunity will present itself but it's not there yet. Patience is the key. Do you agree? Will the trendline hold this time? Or maybe you think that SPX won't retest it in 2023/24 and SPX has already bottomed out? Share your opinion in the comment section!
SP:SPXShort
by vf_investment
3
Mini-Rally?Well, Last week, I was right - until I was wrong. Thanks to CRM and a Fed Chairman talking about "only a .25 rate hike", the market was behaving as forecasted.\ Why blame CRM? Not only did it manage to pull up on the DJI, it pulled up on the S&P (Since it is calculated into both averages). So, here we are - new week, new data and the data changed from last week.. What do things look like? The signal generated is bullish, the forecasts are the coming week is between: (4326 - 4113) with a mean of 4159. The 5 period Stochastic still isn't showing full upward commitment from the index. This can change this week. The 5 period value still places the index in a position of indecision. It is still unsure of what is it going to do. The 2 period Stochastic is suggesting it is going to challenge it's 2 period high of 4052. Not a difficult task since the close (4045) is so near to the high. It is in consolidation between: 4052 and 3928. We know that 4052 is going to be challenged, but the close of the week might return to between these values if a reason to stay above doesn't materialize. Have you seen the economic situation? When we are grabbing on any good news for a short term rally. I guess the market is hunting the good stuff. Monthly S/R Range is: 4195 - 3491. Close was above to 8 period moving average. So prices are at a premium to the 8 week average - a bullish indication of things to come. Yet still at a discount to the 5 week (~1 month) average. I am still bearish - Need a monthly close above 4195 to change my mind. However - I am not immune to playing a mini-rally for fun and profits. If you are playing inverse ETFs, you may get stopped out this week. Yet, don't give up on the bear. The signs that it has left the market have not appeared yet. The FED speaks in a couple of weeks. Depending on what is said can break the consolidation. Then we go 2 months without hearing from the FED. Stay frosty! Keep your stops in place. This is going to be an interesting, if not wild week. -PriceProphet
SP:SPX
by priceprophet
SPX to find resistance at previous levels?US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4014 (stop at 4034) Posted a Bullish Hammer Bottom on the Daily chart. Buying posted in Asia. Bespoke resistance is located at 4014. The previous swing high is located at 4018. A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 3942 and 3940 Resistance: 1014 / 4018 / 4030 Support: 3966 / 3942 / 3925 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
SPX: First Down Then UpIt looks like the SPX has topped out temporarily. This woudn't be too farfetched as the previous couple uptrends lasted for 34, 36, 21, 23, 40, and 33 days. Right now, we're looking at a top which has been formed after 28 days. From the looks of it, its trying to form a falling channel. The properties of this pattern are: - Declining parralel support and resistance lines - Price oscilating between the support and resistance lines - Bottom at an important support zone - Going sideways after hitting the bottom, preferibly with a daily bullish divergence I'm still bullish on the SPX for 2023, but for now i'm expecting a small correction.
SP:SPXShort
by FetchTeam
1
SPX short term trend has turned negative.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4091 (stop at 4127) Price action has posted a bearish Outside Day and is negative for short-term sentiment. An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning. Bespoke support is located at 3997. Previous support, now becomes resistance at 4091. Bespoke resistance is located at 4091. Our profit targets will be 4001 and 3991 Resistance: 4091 / 4155 / 4174 Support: 4051 / 3996 / 3974 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
2
SPX to stall at trend line resistance.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4151 (stop at 4186) Trading within a Corrective Channel formation. Trend line resistance is located at 4154. Bespoke resistance is located at 4151. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. The medium term bias is neutral. Our profit targets will be 4074 and 4041 Resistance: 4151 / 4154 / 4194 Support: 4074 / 4041 / 3979 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
S&P500 Trading Ideas Ahead of the Fed 0.25 Rate HikeThe S&P500 is looking bearish ahead of the much awaited Fed Interest Rate decision later today. Sellers looks to be in control in anticipation for the rise in the USDX value. On the daily chart, MACD shows slightly overbought signs. Selling opportunities exist at the current price 4055 with tight stop loses around 4076. Should the USDX surge later today. The S&P500 may retrace to the 4025 mark, touching the trendline as indicated by the arrow. On the flip side should the USDX break below the 101.4 - which is unlikely - the buyers will be taking control once more.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by ciryjuma008