Spx500short
SPX Pullback This Week Expected (600-1000ish pips)Short Term: Bear
Long Term: Bull
Unknowns: Fundamentals (Stimulus talks/reaction to gold creating instability in the dollar, Crude Oil Inventory Wednesday, Unemployment claims Thursday)
For the past week and a half we've had a good bull run on the SPX. I myself made plenty of good trades and was able to hold the position and ride the wave. But I'm afraid it might temporarily be over. I've outlined the impulses/rallies in blue and the pullbacks in gold going back to June. After our last major resistance turned support (designated in the pink bordered box) that area was never retested once it left the building. After the big dip on the 11th creating and creating a new high on the twelfth, you can see the RSI and MACD see a shift in momentum. I drilled a little deeper into this segment here.
SPX did not create a new high and side stepped the channel we've been following for the last two weeks. Which means another channel will be forming and I have the idea in the original chart. I believe we'll be following that channel probably making a few big drops along the way to the 3290-3280 area. Which would currently give us roughly 880 pips. What will be interesting to see is how it reacts with the 3330-3334 level. It is possible for that level to maintain support as it moves sideways. But I believe that is highly unlikely. Instead I believe it will drop through that level and retest for the sell down to the 3280 area. The two scenarios are loosely depicted below.
What I'm personally hoping for is a quick/deep re-tracement bouncing off S/R levels along the way in which I will setup a sell down to the 3280 level for the major sell that would look something like this.
Lastly I had to take a fibonacci re-tracement into consideration. The 3280 level sits just above the 618 re-tracement as is with the current high and 3280 being "1" fibonacci level. It would not be surprising If we see bullish action and a new All Time High (ATH) created around 3205 come Sunday/Monday that would then push that 618 re-tracement level up to match the 3280 level. This would be the ultimate trade scenario and such a scenario would be as follows.
The one thing that could happen that I'm not considering is if we fall straight through that 3280 level. So I'm not going to worry about that.
Thank you for checking out my analysis! Let me know what you think, please and thank you.
Don't forget Gaps Traders,
Here we have SPX on 4h chart.
We have:
1- Overbought on RSI will lead to bearish divergence in the next few days to fill the gap before the black day of the crash.
2-Double bottom chart pattern that had broken neck line with TP 3231 "Nice level to resist this bull run.
3-After confirming Bearish divergence on RSI will have Major support at 89 MA and lower one at 200 MA which is located at the first GAP of Mid May
If it all goes well I'll update this idea Like if you want updates.
Regards,
SPX500 Trend Reversal PendingA few days ago I posted about a potential double top forming on SPX500 after a strong uptrend. Well Price has yet to break the resistance level.
It is also forming another double top on the 1hr Timeframe. I would keep my eye on this to catch the beginning of a new downtrend.
Also on the daily price shot down to create a lower low prior to this price action we are seeing now.
The Big Short. (Skip this trade at your own risk)So for sometime at Trading Group 101 we have been discussing and looking to work out the next move in the stock market during COVID-19.
To do this successfully you need to look beyond the initial stock charts of the major indices and view the whole financial world. So with this in mind I am sharing some charts that not many people likely view (or even know exist) to give some insight into our thesis for the next big stock market crash.
In the first chart (DBPK) we are looking at an ETF for shorting the stock market, this is showing us where people are not only withdrawing their money away from the stock market and into a cash position, but they are actively putting money into profit from any downside in the S&P 500. People do this for a variety of reason and not just to profit from a crash, but also to hedge their portfolios against a negative move. Price is at a level 33% lower than the start of the COVID-19 crisis. This does not agree with the real fundamental outlook of the economy where most of Europe is seeing case numbers rise, and leading doctors in the US admit the virus is still not under control there.
The second chart (CRUDI) is an inversely correlated ETF against Crude Oil prices. In any market condition where the virus starts to peak again, we can expect Oil demand to fall and consequently prices to fall. This is where we will see this CRUDI chart rise as it did during the emergence of COVID-19.
The third chart may be more familiar to people (VIX) measures the volatility of the stock market. Our analysis is telling us the VIX will soon start to rise which will be yet another indicator of the upcoming market crash.
To back up this thesis we have to have a fundamental viewpoint - Essentially in so many different industries the 'new normal' isnt profitable. Restaurants with social distancing means they are not full, airlines are the same and this goes for many industries.
If you have some ideas on this please comment below.
SPX S&P500 double top A double top is an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern that forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs.
If you are interested to test some amazing buy and sell indicators, which give the signal at the beginning of the candle, not at the end of it, just leave me a message.
Sell-off before new wave up?Some time ago we discussed a possible retest of 3400 in SP500. That is exactly what is happening right now. 3400 is the magnet now. The Advance Decline Line is weak. So, likely we will see a profit booking near the double top. Besides, we see signs of distribution in volumes. Big players are getting out of the market slowly during the last few weeks. I am looking to take short signals in this market. Based on the Fed Funds Forecast I expect this sell-off will give a great buying opportunity. However, let’s take it step by step.
SPX500 REVERSAL???Potential double top could be forming on the daily hinting at a new downtrend coming soon.
NFP last week pushed us up but the bear quickly brought SPX back down to reality and now we are looking at a further push to the downside should price break the necessary trendlines.
I am seeing heavy consolidation at this resistance level when scaled down to 1 and 4hr time frames.
A pinbar has also formed on the 1HR so I would be looking to take up short positions on SPX in the coming days once price breaks out of the consolidation box.
Comments welcome! Happy Trading!!
markets will crash soonhistory repeats itself, long term is time for crash, dollar so watered down, debt is way to far gone, cryptos will soon see this money rushing in as the dollar loses and smart money starts exiting the markets. give it time.
SPX500 Trendline BreakWaiting for a trendline break for a sell entry. On the daily we see price forming a bearish pinbar at the resistance level.
I'd expect to see lower numbers next week.
Happy Weekend Traders!!!
Breakout or Reversal? It's Almost Time! (SPX500)It's almost time to see if the market want's to continue this rally or reverse off the previous top.
The month of August is going to be a hot time to make some big boy decisions for your portfolio.
3391 keep your eyes on it and watch that trend. Stay patient.
SPX - Resistance Galore! Lots of trendline resistance combined with the gap fill should roll this market over Thursday and Friday.
I anticipate a bad continuing claims number on Thursday following the bad ADP numbers we had today as a potential negative catalyst.
Short-term target of 3200 on the SPX should hold as support and could be a first target.
Classic Diamond Top Reversal Pattern Forming - MUST READ!This is a classic diamond top reversal pattern. As we have now closed the Feb gap we start to go down finally. We will then bounce around within the diamond before finally heading down to our Buy Zone which is measured by subtracting the height of the diamond from the estimated break down point.
Amazingly this point coincides with the green long term support line formed by the support created at the bottom of BOTH the 87 and 2008/09 Market Crashes; AS WELL as the green dashed resistance turned support of the Dot Com and 2008 Market tops!!!
Buffet Indicator and Gold at the all-time highs... I just don't get it, we currently have:
Gold at the all-time high
Buffet indicator is at the all-time high (because of a huge GDP drop in Q2 )
But we're only 3% below the all-time high on S&P and VIX is at the lowest levels since Feb.
Something is wrong here, I think we should definitely see another correction. V-shape recovery is too easy for these kinds of conditions.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and/or the script don’t provide any financial advice.
SPX - Heading to possible TOPThe TIme is running and SPX is heading to a possible TOP to finally start the Correction. Waiting for a strong reversal SIgnal to get in that short.
No financial advice, only my idea
