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US SPX 500

S&P500 Retracement 30.01.2024U.S. Indices experienced a rapid movement upwards late yesterday. Retracement today is happening, the question is if it is going to return to the 61.8 Fibo level as depicted by the arrow. __________________________ Information Regarding Important News and Figures can be found here in our Economic Calendar: mau.bdswiss.com/economic-calenda... Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350).
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by Stuart_Cowell
1
5050 is the next point stop?I prefer to ignore reality and focus only on what the graph will show me, because every new week we have good news regarding the American economy, but the good news will have to come to an end at some point, as there is a saying that goes like this; "There is no such thing as a free lunch. If you didn't pay for it, someone else will have to." In the long term we are still in a strong upward pivot, and amazingly, it could reach the gold region at 5050. What a great thing, right? Note: The red lines are resistances. If defeated, they project highs up to the yellow lines (targets). On the medium-term chart, the trend is strong, but the SETUP used is indicating that the bulls are losing strength, therefore, we may not reach the golden target at 5113, remaining only at the long-term golden target reported above (5050). Note: The red lines are resistances. If defeated, they project highs up to the yellow lines (targets). On the hourly chart, we have the following: the loss of the 4909 range projects the falls reported in the chart below. The salvation for this correction would be for bulls to act quickly and force prices above the safety level at 4922. Note: The red lines are support points. Loss of it leads prices to seek the yellow lines (targets) Click here and see the latest BTC analysis In conclusion we have: a) Prices are at an all-time high, a beautiful achievement, but the bulls need to continue their rises and look for the golden target on the long-term chart in the region of 5050. If this does not happen, we could have strong corrections up to the level of 4459. b) The 4960 region is a resistance that needs to be overcome this week for the long-term uptrend to materialize. So, pay attention to this track as this week begins. c) Prices working below the 4909 range the best thing to do is stay out, or, if you are brave, working on the short end is the best alternative, but remember. This is a region with strong fights between bulls and bears, so traps will be constant. SPX here! Do your analysis and good business. Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss. See other graphical analyzes below.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MacD_Bollinger
Whenever this occurs, it signals the bottom of the market.Whenever this occurs, it signals the bottom of the market. In this weekly chart, the blue line represents the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the black line represents the 100 SMA. As we can see the 50 has inverted the 100. Whenever the 50 crosses below the 100 on the weekly chart and then price moves above the 50, the market doesn't set a new low until a new high is established this has happened 13 times in the past (now the 14th time). The only exception to this was in March of 2002, where the market failed to hold three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA. If you are wondering, last weeks close marked three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA, which now means we have a greater than 92% chance that the market has indeed bottomed. To summarize This has happened 13 times in the recorded chart data we have and 12 out of those times the market had bottomed. 12 times out of the 12 times we had closed above the 50 for three consecutive weeks the market had bottomed. Right now we are in the 14th time and we have closed 3 consecutive weeks above the 50SMA. If we set a new low before a new high, this will be the first time ever after closing three weeks above the 50 SMA I have presented the information for all the times this has happened in history, and you can also verify it. In one of my previous ideas, I mentioned we were back testing a Bullish Megaphone pattern and that we should hold there, which we have done since then (see the link below)." Please like if you find it useful Please note this is not a financial advice.
SP:SPX
by BlackisKing
58
NAS100 & SPX500 - WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY? (CONFLICTED)We are at a pivoting point in the markets, everything seems to be bullish and yet I have this bearish itch. Markets seem to be overpriced, notably the NQ. However the S&P500, has had a healthier correction and the continuation of its rally makes more sense. Since both markets are highly correlated, it would be absurd to short the NQ while the S&P500 looks so bullish. Why do I want to short the NQ? Technically it hasn't retraced as sanely as the S&P500 but that may be the nature of both markets. The NQ being more irrational (more speculative) than the rest, especially with the AI craze. So here's my two cents worth on the matter! What is on the charts? (follow the steps) 1) Highs that wicked many times in the daily bearish FVG. 2) Significant high that as I'm writing this has been taken out. 3) The retail sales session that took out lows and this is also what has me question the rally. If it is supposed to be bearish info why isn't price dropping? These are the reasons why I do not trade on certain days because I do not see clearly all the time. 4) Asian session lows, a great target for shorts. 5) A retest (or break of the daily FVG). I am not a breakout trader which is why I am not focusing on the bullish outcome because I couldn't tell you how to trade it optimally. 6) The bearish structure (that may never present itself). This all depends on the S&P500, for me to accept a short I need that double confirmation. So right now I accept everything as bullish unless shown otherwise. 7) Asian session lows taken out. 8) Finally the healthier correction that I'd want for the NQ to accept a more bullish approach. As always, happy trading everyone and have a lovely day! ;)
FX:NAS100
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Chinese equities falling, VIX skyrocketing, and rally stallingOvernight, multiple Chinese stock markets established new lows, setting the negative tone for the European trading session and futures markets in the United States, with all major U.S. indices diving into the negative territory ahead of the regular trading hours. So far, the SPX has failed to get through the psychological resistance of $4,800 and establish new highs. At the same time, other indices like the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Russell 2000 have been moving sideways since late December 2023. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the market’s bullish momentum continues to stall, which follows a period of extremely low VIX and cheap protection to the downside (two things that often precede a downturn in the market). As a result, we are closely monitoring an opening gap in the VIX; if the gap is not closed and the VIX continues to grow, it will strongly bolster the bearish case. The same applies to the decline in MACD, Stochastic, and RSI (plus its failure to break through 70 points) on the daily graph. In addition to that, there are signs of a double-top forming on the daily and weekly chart (not validated yet, though). Therefore, we continue to approach the market with heightened caution. Illustration 1.01 The image shows three major Chinese stock market indices: the Hang Seng Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the Shanghai Composite Index. The Hang Seng Index has continuously declined since early 2018, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 have declined since early 2021; the performance is measured from the all-time highs until the latest market close. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates the opening gap in the VIX, a notable event, given its increase of more than 10% from the previous close. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily and weekly chart of the SPX. Yellow arrows indicate two peaks, which could potentially evolve into a double-top formation. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
3
SPX500 - SHORT STRUCTURE IDEA (TARGET 4725)What's on the chart? 1) An old high that marked a strong year for 2023. 2) A rebound in a weekly FVG that earlier served as a bullish signal for prior trading sessions. 3) In the process of that rebound, a 4H bullish FVG was formed which will serve as our target area + fibs. 4) The 2023 high was broken. 5) IMPORTANT: the new high wasn't taken out. Hmmm.. suspicious. That to me is a sign of weakness from the bulls. 6) On this flop of bullish momentum, a bearish 4H FVG was formed. 7) Market structure shift with a low taken out. Do we expect a rebound? Well I don't know. I'm not here to claim that I predict the future like most twitter gurus will imply. But if it does, this is how I see the rest go down. 8) A rebound in the 4H FVG, this is crucial for a short setup because it would imply a lower high. Super important!! Price doesn't need to go that high though to find a short setup. We could just break our imaginary trendline and that's it. 9) The descent into the abyss of short profits (or liquidations lol).
FX:SPX500Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
Bullish Megaphone Backtest (Update)Please Do your DD as this is not a financial advice The CPI report came in hotter than expected but still seems to be going down now at 8.2 from the June Peak of 9.1. I am reminded at the depths of covid how everyone was negative and bearish but the few who bought then made a lot of gains. I am still cautiously optimistic that this is a back test of the bullish megaphone structure that I posted a while ago and will be looking to see how it holds. However if it doesn't hold this trend line we could be headed for a deeper recession. Looking at the Put call ratio, the Macd, the amount of stocks under the 200 MA, we could have bottomed or nearing the bottom. Please do your own research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BlackisKing
8
📊⤴️⤴️ EURUSD VIP BULLISH MOMENTUM LONG TRADE)⤴️⤴️📊Hello trader’s what do you think about eurusd)? dear traders I think 4H trand line this week Cpi news soo I think eurusd fullback resistance levels my Postens open 01.09000 Long trade) bullish momentum) Target 1.10357) Target 1.10837) Target 1.11657) GBP/USD remained consolidative on Thursday, bid just above 1.26 and offered just above its 10-DMA at 1.2707, as traders cogitate over U.S. and UK rate pivots later this year, looking toward Friday's payrolls data and next Thursday's CPI data for clues about the timing and depth of Fed rate cuts. For now, traders are reacting to Wednesday's slightly dovish Fed minutes, which noted prior rate hikes are having their intended effect reducing inflation and growth, and near-unanimity that rates will be lower by year-end 2024. Sterling traders' reluctance to move GBP/USD out of its 1.26-1.27 range hints at consensus that both the BoE and Fed are at peak rate levels. Though futures are pricing a near-80% chance the Fed will begin rate cuts in March 2024 (0#SRA:), ahead of the BoE expected in May 2024 (0#SON3:), the near-symmetrical rate paths foreseen for the two central banks in 2024 is keeping GBP/USD anchored near current levels. U.S. jobs data on Friday could disrupt the current GBP/USD rate stasis. Should payroll and earnings data surprise to the upside, a delay in Fed cuts is likely to weigh on GBP/USD, putting multiple support levels in the 1.2630s in sharper focus. FX:EURUSD
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
4750 Target met, trends in some conflict nowSo, we did hit that 4750 range, and ended up hitting it within just a few hours of my assessment that was the next area for us to head. That opens up a few trends to take us lower, specifically the 1hr and 2hr, as seen below in the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4722 Downtrend (1/8/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 4757 Uptrend (1/5/2024) Lower High 2Hr - 4757 Uptrend (1/5/2024) Lower High 3Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4759 Downtrend (12/20/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4762 Uptrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High So now the shorter timeframe trends are in some conflict with the longer timeframe trends, and being I capitalized well last week, I am in no rush to get between this fight. Economic Data; I could see the public debt today being a big issue, but the major one this week will be CPI data on Thursday, as covered in the video. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to be a concern as well. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Bullish Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
3
End of Bullish Supertrend? Journey from Support to SupportDear Esteemed Members, The supertrend was bullish, but two sell signals concluded with a bearish price action. The rejections happened around the resistance level from a previous top. The price is now below the upper green support level. I think the S&P 500 market will reach the next support level: around $4600. So, I'd consider a short position. You can target the bottom support level of $4600, but keep a stop loss if the market reverses from the proximity of the violated support level. You can observe a similar setup on my yesterday ES analytics, where I explained a bearish MACD, RSI, BBP, and MFI. Kind regards, Ely
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Elysian_Mind
3
Will US500 suppress the early optimism?US500 - Intraday Previous support level of 4700 broken. Short term bias has turned negative. We are trading at oversold extremes. We look for a temporary move lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. - We look to Sell at 4700 (stop at 4729) Our profit targets will be 4645 and 4615 Resistance: 4750 / 4820 / 4920 Support: 4610 / 4500 / 4415 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
$SPY top at $472-474 and to bottom below $300If you've been following my ideas over the last few weeks, you'll know that I have a macro bearish view going into next year. I think the market is setup to drop 30-40%+. I know everyone is calling for new highs (Tom Lee, looking at you), but it's not going to happen IMO. We're not in a bull market, this is still just a bullish bounce within a bear trend. I'm not sure what the fundamental catalyst will be that will bring markets down so much... it's hard to ever know before it happens, but there will be something in Q1 that will be very negative for markets. However, until then, I think we have a little bit more upside in SPY as I shared in this analysis (short term view). Essentially, I think we have one more move higher to about $472-$474 and then I think we'll top and start moving lower. I've taken short term calls to express this view w/ expiration 12/29, and after some of the names I bought hit their target, I will start buying long term puts with expirations out to 3/18 and 6/21 2024. Let's see if this plays out over the coming weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
8
⤴️⤴️EURUSD BULLISH MOMENTUM Fullbacks)🚀🚀🚀The dollar edger higher on Friday but is set to end 2023 with its first yearly loss since 2020 against the euro and a basket of currencies, on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates next year as inflation moderates. Questions for 2024 will be when the Fed begins cuts, and whether the first rate reduction is made to avoid over-tightening as inflation drops, or due to slowing U.S. economic growth. With markets already pricing in aggressive cuts, debate is also focused on how much further the dollar is likely to fall. “We’ve already weakened quite a bit in anticipation of a Fed cut cycle to come,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York. The dollar's decline accelerated after the Fed adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone and forecast 75 basis points in rate reductions for 2024 at its December policy meeting. Markets are pricing in even more aggressive cuts, with the first reduction seen likely in March and 158 basis points in cuts expected by year-end. (FEDWATCH) The Fed’s tone contrasted with other major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), which maintained they will hold rates higher for longer. But “I do think they will capitulate. European growth is just struggling too much and inflation’s coming down relatively fast … same in the U.K. in many ways,” said Bechtel. “If all three central banks are cutting, it's going to be very hard for the dollar to weaken significantly." Against a basket of currencies, the greenback on Friday gained 0.13% to 101.32 DXY , rising from a five-month trough of 100.61 reached on Thursday. It is on track to lose 2.10% this year and is down 4.62% this quarter, the worst performance in a year. The euro EURUSD dipped 0.19% to $1.1040, hovering just below a five-month peak of $1.11395 reached on Thursday. It is heading for a 3.04% gain for the year, its first positive year since 2020. "Markets are looking for a cut earlier in the U.S. and are less certain that the European Central Bank will cut as quickly, so that's why the dollar is very soft," said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. "We also have positive risk appetite which is another negative for the dollar. Going into 2024, the soft dollar will be a theme towards the March central bank meetings," Christensen added. Policymakers at the ECB and the BoE did not signal any imminent rate cuts at their policy meetings this month, but traders are pricing in 162 bps of cuts by the ECB next year, with the probability of two cuts by April. The BoE is also expected to cut rates by 148 bps in 2024. "While it feels like the market might have moved too far too fast, the facts are that growth is non-existent in Europe, slowing in the U.S., and inflation is falling globally," said CJ Cowan, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors. "The ECB is famously slow to change policy course so almost two cuts priced by April looks aggressive, even if it might be the right thing to do." Sterling GBPUSD rose 0.08% to $1.2745 and was on track for a 5.39%
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point