Ninja Talks EP 19: Let The Trade PassThere's a completely logical but not often used "technique" (if you can call it that) I see only very experienced traders use.
When I do it I can understand why very few people actually stick to it.
Yes it's profitable.
Yes it will make you money both in the short term and the long term.
But you will feel extremely uncomfortable.
The technique I'm talking about is what I call "letting the trade pass."
The basic idea is that Bambi traders jump into trades too early, so as a "letting the trade pass" practitioner your goal is to not jump in early, but instead wait for data to print.
Why do we want more data to print?
Because with each candlestick we gain more and more awareness on the situation.
"Letting the trade pass" simply means just that, you hold off until the "best entry" has passed you by aka you let it pass!
Don't worry you'll have plenty of time to get in on pullbacks and bounces.
Remember price doesn't move in a straight line (only when price reaches terminal velocity does this happen).
Another thing:
As we allow data to print, our certainty level will either increase or decrease depending on if it's proving our thesis correct or incorrect.
Here's the basic steps to follow:
1. Analyze the charts, build a thesis for long or short, if/then/when scenario.
2. Allow data to print (Warning: This can be very uncomfortable) - FOMO will begin to creep in.
3. Let the trade pass - if price confirms your thoughts then allow it to pass by
4. As price is leaving hop on like a train surfer and get a free low risk ride to profit town.
Make sense?
It's all about waiting for data to print and your certainty level to be at an all time high before entering a trade.
This is how you master psychology.
Market Psychology is the forgotten art, invest your time in it and the rewards are exponential.
Hope this helps, follow for more.
Nick
US SPX 500
Looking for SPX dips.US500 - 24h expiry
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 4350, resulting in improved risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 4350 (stop at 4325)
Our profit targets will be 4420 and 4440
Resistance: 4435 / 4580 / 4685
Support: 4355 / 4300 / 4195
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Possibility of trying new challengesHello?
Traders, welcome.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a good day.
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(DXY chart)
The question is whether it can drop below 102.034.
This is because if DXY moves sideways below 102.034, the investment market is expected to be active.
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(SPX500USD chart)
The 4419.8 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1M chart.
Therefore, if it finds support around 4419.8, it is expected to renew the new high (ATH).
However, if resistance is found around 4419.8, a decline near the HA-Low indicator on the 1M chart is likely.
Therefore, if it falls, it is expected that a new HA-Low indicator on the 1M chart will be created.
Looking more closely,
1st: 4255.2-4310.8
2nd : 4116.0-4189.0
You need to make sure that it is supported in the vicinity of the 1st and 2nd above.
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(NAS100USD chart)
Like the SPX500USD chart, it is located near 15090.3, the point of the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, after the volatility period around June 28th, it is necessary to confirm that it can maintain above 15090.3.
If not,
1st: 14328.9-14710.6
2nd : 13231.6-13480.9
Tertiary: 12716.0-12896.2
You need to make sure it is supported around the 1st-3rd order above.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Ninja Talks EP 17: OJ Simpson-itusFunniest thing always happens in a bear market;
You get influencer guru wannabe gigachads acting like they're OJ Simpsons lawyer trying to argue a case they know is wrong.
If the glove fits, right?
When the ships sinking peeps turn into three people;
(1) They admit they were wrong, reassess and act accordingly (2) They deny their lying eyes and continue to nuke their Trading account (3) They secretly close their positions, but tell the world they're still open, until it eventually proves to be unpopular in which case they are already safe from any disasters.
That last one is particularly offensive, it's like the elite of the world going into underground bunkers secretly before meteors strike the earth.
Cowardly.
But It's hard to hold people accountable, nor do I care to really do so - the only thing I can do (and you too by proxy) is to not be (2) and (3) - makes you less of a superhero when you are wrong, humans are more relatable anyway.
+ Your audience will appreciate you serving them rather than your own selfish self interests.
Just some food for thought.
Admitting when you were wrong, allows a bonding experience greater than any other.
When was the last time I was wrong?
Well...
I picked the exact top on Tesla, Bitcoin and the stock market, but I didn't think Bitcoin would crack 60k, I had it stopping sooner - but I was wrong - luckily I didn't bet on it or tell anyone else to bet on it, but the fact remains...
...own your loss like a champion and people will respect you.
Or just deny reality, like the guy who says "I'm not crying, my eyes are hot!".
It's up to you Ninja.
Decide what type of financial speculator you want to be.
That's all for this ep, give a like and comment for the algo.
Nick
$SPY: 50%-61.8% Retrace Seems Likely Before Continuation HigherThe SPY seems likely to pull back to the levels of $420 to $400 before it can later decide whether it wants to continue the overall Bullish Trend to all-time highs. In the meantime, we are dealing with Double Bearish Divergence on the MACD, Overbought Conditions on the RSI, and a Bearish Engulfing Candle on the 4 Hour all while trading at the 1.13 Retrace of the local range it just broke out of.
$SPX500 - Breaching Macro Golden Zone - FX:SPX500 breached through Macro Fibbonaci Golden Zone,
taken from the Highs of 4812 $ to the lows of 3489 $.
Although managing to do so, must be noted that FX:SPX500
is Dead in Volume(below average volume) and overbought in RSI .
Weekly Close in 2Days 13hrs.
Regarding it's Price Action, the overall condition of
current uptrend still intact, as long as it maintains
the support trendline and remains above HL (to have a BoS).
TRADE SAFE
*** This is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor
before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this idea
The beginning of a week in which new changes can occurHello?
Traders, welcome.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a good day.
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(DXY chart)
An important trend on the DXY chart is expected to start with a breakout from the 102.034-105.873 zone.
Therefore, it is necessary to check in which direction out of the 102.034-105.873 range.
In order for the investment market to be active, I think it should show a sideways trend by falling below 102.034.
Therefore, in order for the coin market to continue its upward trend, I think it needs to show a decline below 102.034.
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(SPX500USD chart)
The 4255.2-4310.8 section is an important support and resistance section.
Therefore, if it rises above this range and shows support, it is likely to surge around 4419.8.
The 4419.8 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1M chart and corresponds to an important support and resistance section from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, it is the time to split and sell.
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(NAS100USD chart)
The 14710.6-15090.3 section is an important support and resistance zone on the 1M chart.
Therefore, it is the time to split and sell.
If it is supported and rises in the 14710.6-15090.3 section, it is expected to surge around 15978.3.
If the 14710.6-15090.3 section is unsupported and falling, you should check to see if it is supported around 12896.2-13418.8.
Around June 12th is a period of volatility.
Therefore, it is necessary to keep a close eye on the movement until June 13th.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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SPX Must hold 3970 tomorrow am or its goneAs you can see there is a lot of confluence at 3970 level (This chart become quite busy with the trendlines)
If we do gap down tomorrow below 3970, I will be looking to buy 3928-39SPX level for a broken trendline test, if not more.
This chart is similar to the ES, but has a higher level of support, so they have a bit different short term look one from another to my eyes, but the main picture is the same.
I really dont have much of a support if 3890-3910.50 is gone till 3744SPX!
So it better hold that level and ideally the 3928-39SPX support box.
Same as the ES, SPX has its trading cycles bearish now, expect short the rips all the way till the 19th of Dec!
Have a good night
SPX - Structure & Downside TargetsSPX continues to trend after failing to break resistance at $4200 (floor of H&S market top) - 4 touches on my count.
- Environment: Support for banks tricking folk into thinking there is QE. Analysts with Bearish scenarios are being shot down by critics.
Waiting for this market to make a decision - Value is to the downside, Bearflag TP would support the following targets - first stop $3300. TA at key Fib @2900, Stretch, $2800
Best, Hard Forky
Short Top
$SPY bull market? Nope. Here are the important levels from here.There are many people who have turned long term bullish because they've been surprised by the recent move to the upside. And while my short term bias did turn bullish on Jan 4th, I think we're closer to a local top than we are to seeing a new bull market commence from here.
I came across this old chart today-- it has to be one I created over a year ago, and what was interesting to me when I pulled it up is the levels that were marked off back then have all been tagged as support or resistance since the bear market has begun. $428, $358, $322 and $287. I added a couple extra levels onto the chart $276 and $421 as potential support/resistances and/or to account for wicks.
That said, I think these will end up being important levels on the way down for continuation of the bearish trend.
I am not one to buy into the idea that we are in a new bull market. In fact, I think quite the opposite. The worst of the bear market is yet to come. I think the two levels above from here $421 and $428 will end up being important resistance levels. And if we can't close above those levels, then we'll end up seeing continuation to the downside.
I think we'll end up getting below $300 in the S&P to the lower support targets by September/Octoberish timeframe. I've marked off key dates to watch for changes in price action.
Good luck trading this, I have a feeling that the market is going to get increasingly difficult to trade from here.
Is there stock market drop based on around SPX possible? As we have all seen, the stock market has been on a steady rise for some time now, but I fear that we may be on the brink of a significant drop.
There are several reasons for my concern. While governments and central banks have taken measures to mitigate the effects of this past pandemic disruption, the long-term impact on the economy is still uncertain.
Secondly, we are seeing signs of overvaluation in many sectors of the market. Companies that are not yet profitable are seeing their stock prices soar, and the valuations of some of the largest tech companies are reaching levels that are difficult to justify.
Finally, we are seeing a significant increase in market volatility, with large swings in both directions becoming more common. This volatility is a clear sign that investors are becoming increasingly uncertain about the future of the market.
Given these factors, I believe it is important for traders to be wary of the current stock market rally. While it is always difficult to predict the future, I believe that the risks of a significant market drop are high.
As such, I encourage you to be cautious in your trading decisions and to consider taking steps to protect your investments. This could include diversifying your portfolio, investing in defensive sectors, or even reducing your exposure to the market altogether.
In conclusion, I urge you to take these warnings seriously and to be prepared for the possibility of a significant market drop. While I hope my concerns are unfounded, I believe it is better to be safe than sorry.
Riding the hype: Why gut investments can lead to lossesInvesting in exciting and promising prospects, such as all-healing biotech or artificial intelligence and robotics companies, where investors look for stocks with interesting stories, is all the rage right now. In the long run, however, this is not always a good strategy, as most of these stocks do not generate sustainable profits and eventually disappear into oblivion. Even the biggest companies in the fast-moving technology sector often disappear. It is an emotional challenge to resist the pull of good stories, but historical experience shows that it is more rational to avoid such stocks.
A lower number of shares outstanding is usually good for returns. Companies with a declining number of shares have outperformed the market by about 3% per year over the past 100 years. In contrast, companies with an increasing number of shares have underperformed the market. These correlations are consistent across market phases and industries. Companies that continually raise capital tend to be poor investments because they often have no or negative cash flow and are constantly dependent on the capital market.
Issuing employee options dilutes shares and hurts shareholders. Many companies simply exclude the cost of options to improve profitability. However, this increases the number of shares outstanding and dilutes shareholder ownership. Buying back shares on credit can also be problematic because higher interest rates can hurt earnings per share. Companies should fund share repurchases out of free cash flow rather than by increasing debt. Share buybacks are particularly useful in value investing, where undervalued shares are purchased. Buybacks increase ownership and future earnings without requiring shareholders to put up additional capital. This leads to an increase in earnings per share, especially when profits are rising.
It is therefore worth monitoring the share count and avoiding companies that cannot finance themselves or have large employee option programs.
SPX500USD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
SPX500USD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 4282.6
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Goal - 4330.1
My Stop Loss - 4255.7
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPX500USD Is Going Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 4279.4.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 4177.9 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P index is Breaking through Strong Pressure !S&P index is Breaking through Strong Pressure !
This chart shows the line chart chart of the S&P index since mid August 2021. The graph overlays the line between the high and high points at the top of the S&P index, the line between recent low and low points, and the horizontal line at key positions at the current stage. As shown in the figure, the S&P index is currently showing an accelerated upward trend with an angle greater than 45 degrees. S&P index has reached a bearish starting point of 4274 before the recent bottom, and is about to challenge the neckline of 4350 at the top of the head and shoulders! In the future, we should focus on the rising speed and slope of the S&P index to determine the size of the upper space!