ES-MINI RISK-OFF Q2With recession fears growing, a lot of individuals are short here, and will accept a bull case scenario if we see a break of 4200, or a break of the February highs.
Thus, what I'd like to see is price going up and taking out the February highs during either Monday or Tuesday.
Then, on Wednesday, with the Core CPE data coming out, I'd like for that news to be a catalyst to see an initial move up, purging the liquidity, and turtle souping, above the highs created on Monday/Tuesday. I'd like to see price go up into the weekly FVG that I have highlighted from where we should see some sort of distribution in the smaller timeframes to then start a new swing move lower.
My first initial target would be the BISI at 4052.50. Price could play around at this level, or reverse or a bit.
If we manage to break through that BISI, I'd like to see price take out the low beneath it.
US SPX 500
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1! ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEK
Are we seeing the bearish ascending triangle already?
As with NQ, tendency to take rotational trades has diminished.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rejection short at 4175 / 4068
2) If market decides to spring a surprise, long on test of break of
4198 and finds support
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4198 4068
3928 3788
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ATTENTION: S&P 500 - Medium Term Right Side is DOWNTechnical Analysis:
- S&P is going to finish wave ((B)) in black in the next 2-4 weeks
- Short Term Right Side (H4) is turning up
- Medium Term Right Side is down to complete a wave II in red
Technical Information:
- Don't buy now S&P if you're a swing trader
- If you're a position trader please wait for wave II in red to be completed
Activation of the investment market is...hello?
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** Analysis of the BTC chart publishes new ideas once a week.
** However, we publish new ideas when volatility occurs or when we show signs of diverging from our expectations.
** Excluding the above situation, BTC analysis is listed as a daily update.
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(NAS100USD chart)
The key is whether there is a movement outside the 12896.2-13418.8 section, which is an important volume profile section.
If it rises above 13231.6-13480.9, it is expected to continue its upward trend around 14710.6.
If not, and it falls below 12497.5-12716.0, I would expect a decline around 11366.9-12119.2.
The important thing is that it is maintaining an uptrend along the uptrend channel plotted on the 1D and 1W charts.
However, since the 1M chart has not yet formed an upward channel, it is necessary to check the situation in the future.
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(SPX500USD chart)
The key is whether you can maintain the uptrend along the rising channel drawn on each chart.
If it fails to do so and starts to break out of the uptrend channel one by one, it is likely to lead to a sharp decline.
If it shows an uptrend along the rising channel, I would expect it to rise above 4310.8.
Since the 1M chart's HA-High indicator is formed at 4419.8, you need to check whether it can rise above the 4252.2-4310.8 section.
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(DXY chart)
The question is whether it can move sideways below 101.494.
If it does not, and rises above 102.020-105.873, the investment market is expected to slow further.
If it moves sideways in the 98.244-101.494 section, the investment market is expected to be active.
The activation of these investment markets means that there is a high possibility of showing results different from the actual economic situation.
Therefore, it is not good to predict the prospects of the investment market, that is, the coin market, based only on the current global economic situation.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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4666good eve'
decided to share my full local count of this b wave.
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i'm basically looking at it as a double zig-zag from the lows.
a double zig-zag is a 3-three-wave move (labeled 3-3-3).
it channels beautifully, and it aligns with my general outlook over the next 360 days.
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once this b wave is completed,
the market should enter into a c wave,
which i also theorize will see an extension.
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🌙
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Inverse H & S on Weekly SPX Analysis We are nearing an important event tomorrow where we will come to know about Fed funds rates and FOMC guidance for upcoming months. These events are known for creating extreme volatility. We can easily swing up and down 100- 150 points on days like these and set in motion what's to come for the next few months.
No matter how big of a volatile move we will see tomorrow in the price action, it will be a small blip on a larger timeframe and that's what we are here to analyze.
On weekly Time frame I am looking at this inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
Let's analyze this structure based on RSI indicator.
In the main chart we can see that, since the time inverse H & S began to form, the RSI has been trading in a Rising wedge formation which is a bearish pattern. Every time we touch the top edge of the wedge, we have been getting a rejection on RSI and big move down in SPX. In the begenning of the structure and RSI we got huge moves to the downside, but those moves have been getting smaller and smaller both in RSI and Price Action. This is called compression
which is followed by explosive moves once the pattern is broken.
Last week we again got a rejection from the top edge of the wedge and have begun to move down, I have placed the measurements on the chart about how much we have been dropping every time we touch top edge of the wedge on RSI and based on the patterns in price drop and how much time it took to drop to the lower edge. We can expect a drop of about 5+ % from the current top and reach there in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
Now once we have reached there RSI will have to decide whether to bounce back up or finally break the pattern. The break to the downside has descent chances of happening as per the Rising wedge pattern rules where it says the pattern break occurs in last 33% of the structure and it looks like we should be there by end of this month. If it does break below the inverse H & S pattern will fail.
The best way to protect you from entering wrong trades : is to never be too sure about any analysis and always consider all possibilities. Following are the possibilities I see with RSI which can make or break the structure:
We must monitor all the trendlines in RSI and see what PA is doing, it may not go all the way down and bounce back up from one of the trendlines in the middle.
The following are all scenarios I am watching for the movement of RSI.
I used a simple but powerful RSI indicator to gain insight on SPX Price action. If you are not familiar with this indicator, or if you have basic understanding but want to fully understand this indicator in detail: You can ago through the post in the links below:
I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
SPX500USD Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 4170.8.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 4234.1 level.
P.S
We determine overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P500 - Bearish MACD cross!Upon examination, it is evident that each instance of a bearish MACD cross above the zero line has resulted in a subsequent downward movement. Moreover, S&P is exhibiting a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern while facing significant resistance. The prevailing market sentiment leans towards a bearish outlook, suggesting the possibility of a downward trend in the near future.
4-27-23 [spx]gm gm,
quick update to the local trajectory on the spx500.
after invalidating the 5th leg up locally (via my last post),
it becomes abundantly clear to me, that all of these moves - are in fact 3 wave moves.
being this corrective by nature, i can now conclude my entire theory by saying this is in fact a massive B wave,
and spx will undergo a significant break down once wave b has been completed (quite possible sub-covid-low).
---
no downside targets at this time,
but i got you whenever i see it.
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>keep in mind, these posts are very general, and you should consistently be doing your own dd, and analysis on the ever-changing market structures.
✌
4-25-23 [spx]good afternoon anon,
are you feeling bearish all of a sudden?
it's okay, that's natural.
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spx looks to be in a local 4th wave right now -
4073.75 is the hard invalidation on this local wave.
if it is breached, the upside move is invalidated and bears take full control over the next 2 weeks.
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>if the bulls are succesful in this local setup,
>i am estimating a move up to 4250 into this friday where i believe pce comes in hot,
>and sends the market tumbling down into the dungeons.
---
nfa, do your own research and dd.
Significance of the 12896.2-13231.6 sectionHello?
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(NAS100USD chart)
Looking at the 1W chart, the 4th week showed sideways movement in the range of 12896.2-13418.8.
The key is whether this week, the fifth week, can continue sideways.
If not, you need to make sure it is supported on the 12716.0-12896.2 range, which is the 1st segment indicated on the 1D chart.
Looking at the 1M chart, the HA-Low indicator is formed at 13480.9.
Therefore, it needs to rise above 13480.9 to continue the uptrend on a long-term basis.
Looking at the 1W chart, the HA-High indicator is formed at 12497.5.
Therefore, it can be seen that it is maintaining an upward trend from a mid- to long-term perspective.
Looking at the 1D chart, the HA-High indicator is formed at 12946.5.
So, if it finds support around 12946.5, it is expected to rise above 13231.6.
If you fall below the HA-High indicator and receive resistance, you should basically think of falling around the HA-Low indicator and think about countermeasures.
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(SPX500USD chart)
The key is whether it can be supported around 4116.0-4123.5 and rise above 4169.6.
If not, you need to make sure it is supported around 4045.2.
Looking at the 1W chart, point 4116.0 is the section where the volume profile section is formed.
Therefore, being supported in the 4116.0-4169.6 section means that you can create a new wave.
However, it means that the resistance is strong, so it is good to check the upward breakout.
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(DXY chart)
- It broke out of the rising channel of the 1M chart.
- The key is whether it can fall along the 1W chart's downtrend channel.
- The key is whether it can fall below 101.494 on the 1D chart.
In order for the investment market to be active, I think it should show sideways in the 98.244-101.494 section.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
---------------------------------
S&P500 short limit at 4135.5Intraday trading idea with 4.8R on the table.
Supply and demand pockets followed with impulsive inefficient moves have been reliable on ES.
Closest pocket of supply that broke higher timeframe market structure is around tested Support-turn-Resistance line.
I am expecting the price to retrace to the 4135-4145 area and then continue downwards.
Entry: 4135.5
Stop: Top of the supply zone 4144.5
Target: 4091.5
4.89R trade
Looser Stop loss at 4150 still gives 3R trade. Depending on the market conditions, but I will most likely play this as soft and hard stop loss, adding into position after confirmation of the validity of the setup.
Setup is invalid if we just continue downwards - and break the low of 4091.5.
PX500 - goes to test the global trend line!Hello trader Today I have prepared a new idea for you. Like and subscribe to the channel there is a lot of useful information✅
Technical - the stock market may test the global trend line, at the moment it acts as support for the SPX500. Usually such tests are met with squeezes and after that the price returns again to test the support, can we bounce back to the 4150 points zone again, technically everything looks like this, let's see where this correction will lead.
Fundamentally - there are rumors that the correction in the stock market began due to the problems of one of the FIRST REPUBLIC BANK banks, which may go bankrupt soon, the bank's shares have already fallen by -40%, another bank in the Fed's piggy bank, the printing press is probably already refueling with ink))
SPX - ABC. Allowing Bank Capitulations? 25/02/23We could be setting up for a classic deep ABC pattern here. Since my last post of a WXY count, it seems that we instead finished a 5 count as previously shown:
Since previous low, price has formed a convincing ABC correction to where we sit now. No move down is technically confirmed just yet but there's certainly an increasing probability day by day that this count can come to fruition.
Let us not forget what happened in 2008:
There's also the hot topic of inflation rebounding. Did the FED ease off the pedal too quickly? Maybe. Just Maybe.
This is not financial advice and always DYOR .
SPX is overvalued and risk while DAX outperformsThe SPX or the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued according to this critical red line in the Fibonacci levels, Fibonacci. With potentially deteriorating market conditions, many have left the stock markets globally to park their money .in safer assets like money markets. Most investors are getting better performance because of higher interest rates than taking risks in the stock market. I have lost all confidence in trading in the stock market currently due to higher volatile pricing action. Is there a significant calamity on the way? There are better-producing stock markets internationally out there, including Germany.
Whether the investment market is active or not is a DXY chart...Hello?
Traders, welcome.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a good day.
** Analysis of the BTC chart publishes new ideas once a week.
** However, we publish new ideas when volatility occurs or when we show signs of diverging from our expectations.
** Excluding the above situation, BTC analysis is listed as a daily update.
-------------------------------------
(NAS100USD chart)
The key is whether it can rise above the volume profile section of 12896.2-13231.6.
(1D chart)
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether it can rise to the 13231.6-13480.9 section and be supported.
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(SPX500USD chart)
The key is whether it can rise above the volume profile section of 4116.0-4169.6 and continue its rise along the rising channel.
(1D chart)
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(DXY chart)
Looking at the 1M chart, it shows a breakout from the uptrend channel.
Accordingly, the key is whether it will form a new trend.
In my opinion, for the investment market to pick up steam, DXY needs to show sideways decline below 101.494.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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