Get started

US SPX 500

SPX 500 Futures: Analyzing Price Movements and Predicting TrendsAs a trader, keeping an eye on market trends and understanding how to interpret them is crucial to making informed decisions. In this article, I'll explore the price movements of the S&P 500 (SPX) futures since the beginning of February 2023. Whether you're a beginner or an intermediate trader, this analysis will provide insights into the market's behavior and hopefully help you make better decisions for your portfolio. The Roller Coaster Ride: February to March 2023 At the beginning of February 2023, the ES futures hit a high near 4200, marking the start of a steep decline. The descent was impulsive, and prices dropped to almost 3800, stopping short by about 30 points. There are two ways to interpret the downward movement: either as a 5-wave structure or a 3-wave structure. The choppiness and overlap of the moves make it difficult to determine the exact structure, but one thing is clear: a significant bottom was reached around March 13, 2023, the same date as the bottom in 2020 . The Rebound and the Big Question Since that bottom, the ES futures have rebounded, practically returning to their starting point at 4200. Now, we face a critical question: what happens next? From a trading standpoint, it appears that we're in a rising wedge , forming an ending diagonal with multiple 3-wave structures. If the lower trendline is breached, the market could be on its way to testing 4000, or even lower . However, if the upper trendline is broken and the market surpasses 4200, a slow grind up to 4300-4500 is possible, although I'd give it a 20% chance at this point. Key Trendlines and Moving Averages Beneath the current market level, two significant trendlines exist . The first, originating from the October lows, sits around 3925 , while the second, from the COVID-19 lows, hovers around 3775 . Interestingly, the latter trendline coincides with the 200-week simple moving average . Making Bets: Bull or Bear? Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, it's evident that the market is in a compressing wedge , which will eventually break in one direction or the other. The decision you need to make is whether to place your bets now or wait for a break to occur. It's worth noting that while the market has risen significantly, it could fall just as quickly. Conversely, after a challenging 2022 for investors, the market could continue to rise. The key to longer-term upside potential lies in the VIX, which needs to stay below 20 for the slow grind rise . By examining the recent history of the SPX 500 futures and their current position within a compressing wedge, you can better prepare for potential shifts in the market. Whether you choose to place your bets now or wait for a break, staying informed and adaptable is crucial to successful trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bitdoctor
6
Stocks: Early optimism fades but trend still positiveWall Street opened higher after futures rose in the first half of Tuesday’s session, finding good support from firmer Chinese and European equity markets, and positive risk appetite across the financial markets with the likes of Bitcoin and AUD/USD also higher. But at the time of writing, the major indices had all turned negative on the day, most likely due to profit-taking ahead even more earnings. Therefore, the bullish S&P 500 forecast is still valid until the charts tell us otherwise. Chinese data fuels rally in risk assets Mixed bank earnings reports Netflix kicks off tech earnings Strong Chinese GDP underpins miners, luxury names Earlier in the day, stronger-than-expected Chinese GDP and consumer spending data had helped to fuel a rally in European luxury names, while miners were leading the charge in London. Investors were also digesting US earnings, as Goldman Sachs and Bank of American produced contrasting results with the former dropping more than 3% and the latter rising 2.8% in premarket. These come after strong results from JP Morgan, Citi and Wells Fargo on Friday, soothing investor concerns surrounding banks’ profitability. US housing data highlights impact of higher rates Meanwhile, the latest US housing market data hinted to a drop in future construction, underscoring the impact of high interest rates. Housing starts for March were 1.42 million annualised units compared to 1.40 million expected and 1.43m last. Housing permits fell to 1.41m from 1.55m previously, disappointing expectations of 1.45m. So, not great numbers – especially the near-9% decline in permits, which is a leading indicator of future housing construction. Despite the housing market slowdown, the labour market is still holding its own rather well, an inflation is falling somewhat rapidly now. All told, the US is still likely heading for an economic slowdown, but it may be less severe than expected. Which is why investors’ have pared their Fed rate-cut predictions from extreme levels, and why we have seen US equity markets perform rather well in recent weeks. Focus turns to Netflix and other big techs Investors’ focus will turn to technology sector earnings, with Netflix set to report its results after the close tonight and Tesla the day after. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are scheduled to post their numbers next week, followed by Apple in early May. These results will have an impact on our S&P 500 forecast, as well as the other major indices. S&P 500 Technical Analysis While the current shape of the candle looks bearish, the day is still young, and dip-buyers might step back in to save the day. Regardless of how the market closes today, the S&P 500 forecast remains bullish until we see a break down in the market structure of higher highs and higher lows. The most recent low comes in around 4082, which is now the line in the sand as far the short-term outlook is concerned. For as long as the S&P holds above this level, the path of least resistance would remain to the upside. The bulls will want to defend the shaded blue area that was being tested at the time of writing. Previously resistance, it needs to serve as support to keep the short-term bullish momentum intact. If support holds here, then the next stop could be above 4195, the high that was hit back in February. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
SPX500USD Is Going Up! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4138.3. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4216.4. P.S Please, note that an overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SignalProvider
7
S&P 500: Roaring Twenties 2.0 Bullish Harmonic FractalIn the lead up to the 1920s, the US Federal Reserve significantly increased its balance sheet by almost nine times, starting from 700 Million Dollars in December 1916 to 6.6 Billion Dollars by January 1920. This move was presumably to fund the US's entry into the First World War, which led to an increased demand for US government debt globally and loose lending conditions domestically, and low rates thereby encouraging a round of inflation in the US. However, after the war ended, the Fed stopped increasing the balance sheet, and between 1920 and 1922, they began to reduce it from the already elevated $6.6 billion to $4.8 billion, almost a 30% cut in just two years. This action successfully controlled inflation but did not eliminate it completely, yet the dollar gained significant buying power, resulting in a somewhat disinflationary period. As a response to this, the Fed maintained the balance sheet within a tight range around $4.8 billion for a decade, neither raising nor lowering it much but the federal reserve did continue to significantly lower the interest rates; During this time, equities rallied. While the 1920s were a period of economic growth and prosperity, there were warning signs of overheating towards the end of the decade. Investors were becoming overly speculative, leading to a surge in stock and real estate prices, while lending standards declined and consumer spending continued to rise rapidly. To counteract these inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve implemented policies to tighten credit conditions; They doubled interest rates and also raised reserve requirements for banks, which reduced the amount of money available for lending. In essence this would kickstart The Great Depression which could have instead been a Simple Recession if only the fed had acted sooner as it wasn't their intention to crush the market but rather they just wanted to cool the market down a bit to contain inflation. Years deep into the Great depression, the Federal Reserve realized they had gone too far. So, to fix this, they would begin to raise the balance sheet again while also cutting rates drastically in an effort to relieve pressure from the economy and promote new opportunities for economic growth, which then led to a new expansionary cycle. With that all being said, it would appear that the Fed is doing now what it was doing back then. Over the last decade, they raised the balance sheet by 900% and lowered interest rates by over 95%. Only over the last year, they have begun to reduce the balance sheet by about 10% while raising rates by over 1500%. If we are to go off of the Harmonic Fractals on the chart, then we are likely nearing a point in time where the Fed will begin to loosen rate policy and bring the balance sheet back to all-time highs. This would align with the S&P reaching a 2.618 - 4.00 Retraces as the Fed attempts to keep policy as loose as possible in the hopes that inflation won't come back to bite them. But once we reach harmonic targets, we will likely see inflation return in a great way, which would then force the Fed to induce another Great Depression in the next several years rather they want to or not. Technical Argument: ABCD BAMM, after breaking a long accumulation range and entering a long term expansionary cycle, we are now in the later phases of said cycle while showing heavy amounts of MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence and harmonically have room to go up significantly higher before it ultimately reaches D and comes to an end.
TVC:SPXLong
by RizeSenpai
2
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1! ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEK Friday's bar closed below 4175 and showed a rejection of higher prices. Scenario Planning: 1) Rejection short at 4175 2) Market rotation continues = trade at boundary (80pt range) of range (grey box) 3) Rotation breakout long at support of 4175 Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4175 4096 3928 3788 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
SPX to find support at trend line?US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 4096 (stop at 4066) Posted a Bullish Outside candle on the Daily chart. There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 4153. The bias remains mildly bullish but there is scope for a move in either direction at the open. Trading within a Bullish Channel formation. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 4091, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 4166 and 4186 Resistance: 4155 / 4196 / 4230 Support: 4091 / 4047 / 4018 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
SPX500USD Is Very Bearish! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4139.3. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 4112.4 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SignalProvider
8
The importance of your current locationHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (NAS100USD chart) In order to continue the upward trend from a long-term perspective, it must rise above the HA-Low indicator on the 1M chart. From a mid- to long-term perspective, it is located in the 12896.2-13418.8 section, which is the current volume profile section. Therefore, in order to show a full-fledged upward trend, it is expected that it will be possible to rise above 13231.6-13480.9. If that doesn't happen and it goes down, you should check for support near 12497.5. ---------------------------------------- (SPX500USD chart) The key is whether it can rise above 4116.0-4123.5 and whether it can rise above 4169.6 to receive support. ------------------------------------------- (DXY chart) The key is whether resistance can be found below 102.020, that is, below 101.494. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
OANDA:NAS100USD
by readCrypto
1
The S&P 500 BottomTop of mind for investors and traders right now is whether or not the S&P 500 has reached its bottom. While this is an impossible question to answer and depends on which timeframe one is looking for a bottom, I will attempt to provide an general analysis below. First, the chart above is a quarterly chart (each candle represents a 3-month period) of the S&P 500. The pink line and shaded area represent periods of U.S. recessions as designated by data published by the Federal Reserve. The white line is the 20-period moving average. The 20-period moving average is the most commonly used reference point for the mean (average) price of the time period being analyzed. The 20-period moving average is also the mean of the Bollinger Bands, which are used to detect how over- or under-extended price is relative to its mean. GDP data suggest that we were technically in a recession in the first half of 2022. In the past 50 years, every recession has seen the S&P 500 revert down to its mean on the quarterly chart. Even the mild recession in the early 1990s, which hardly anyone remembers today, nearly tagged the mean. In fact, most recessions saw further downside movement. During the Dotcom Bust and the Great Recession the S&P 500 declined all the way to the lower Bollinger Band on the quarterly chart (as shown below). The current stagflationary period (where inflation is elevated and economic growth is low) is most similar to the stagflationary period of the 1970s. During this period, we had a series of intermittent recessions and a relatively flat stock market over a period of about a decade. As you can see in the chart below, during each recession, the S&P 500 bottomed at either the mean of the Bollinger Band or down at the lower band (on the quarterly chart). It was not until Paul Volcker sent interest rates to the moon that inflation finally ended in the early 1980s. Every yearly chart I've analyzed suggests we have entered into a period of stagflation and we will likely see higher inflation, higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and intermittent recessions for years to come. This is happening while the yearly S&P 500 Stochastic RSI oscillator is trending down sharply following more than a decade of rapid stock market expansion. So far as of writing, we have not reached the S&P 500 mean on the quarterly chart. There is an overwhelming likelihood that, at some point in the future, we will. Nonetheless, traders ought not to base their trades on slowly moving yearly charts, as even in a prolonged downturn there can be lucrative intermediate-term long opportunities. Indeed, the quarterly mean (20-period moving average) moves up over time, and when we do revert down to it, that price may be higher than the current price. Here are some other arguments for why we may have seen an intermediate-term bottom of the S&P 500 -- First, seasonality: As you can see in the seasonality chart below, the month of June often puts in the low for the year, which is sometimes retested in the August through October period (highlighted in yellow). Second, Fibonacci levels: As you can see, June's price action bounced off an important Fibonacci level. Price is also technically being supported on the third Fibonacci spiral from the Great Depression high as shown below (though this is precarious when viewed on the yearly timeframe). Third, the intermediate term oscillators are starting to create a bias of momentum to the upside as shown in the chart below. Fourth, the chart of the ticker S5TH is breaking out. The S5TH ticker simply represents the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 200 day moving average. This is extraordinarily bullish and a warning signal to those holding short positions. Fifth, there has been a clear bullish breakout of the Advance Decline Line (ADL), as shown in the chart below. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. Right now it is signaling a bullish reversal. There are other bullish signals occurring as well, such as improving sentiment in the Put-Call Ratio and in the Fear-Greed Index. Although all of these indicators are turning bullish. We still need to see the VIX break down below its trend line and the dollar index (DXY) to start declining, the latter of which will likely happen. About a month ago, I questioned whether the DXY would top at its Fibonacci level, and indeed it formed an upper wick and came right back down to this level before the close of July, forming a bearish inverted hammer. There were many dollar index bulls who thought at the time that I was being ridiculous, but the charts were showing clear bearish divergence and there was very little chance that the dollar index (DXY) would blast past this important Fibonacci level while being so over-extended. I ignore all noise in the market and focus solely on what chart is saying. Charts are mathematical, statistical, and predictable. Charts also do not lie. While anything can happen, it's quite certain that the coming months and years will be quite a roller coaster. There are very few people who are prepared for the magnitude of stock market decline that could happen now that unlimited quantitative easing is no longer sustainable. I'll be posting updates along the way. Look first, then leap!
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
41
➖15% S&P500 Index drop by H&S pattern💣The S&P500 index is moving near the resistance line and 🔴resistance zone($ 4,200- $ 4,100)🔴. The S&P500 index also seems to be forming the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders pattern in the 🟡Time Reversal Zone(TRZ)🟡. I expect the S&P500 index to drop to the 🟢support zone($ 3,590-$ 3,490)🟢 after breaking the neckline. S&P500 Index (SPXUSD) Analyze Daily time frame⏰ (Log Scale). Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
SP:SPXShort
by pejman_zwin
Bullish above last month HIGH Buy signal still valid SPX SPY SNPWith all the Doom & Gloom regarding recession worries we liked our idea even more so into Q1 close last month. So far so good however we are still very early in Q2. We remain bullish above last months high (March 2023) Seeking Pips will be managing our positions on the Weekly and Daily charts. We also note that the current price is also in a key Fib retracement zone to SELL SPX on the monthly chart so we will not be surprised to see another pullback, again we would consider adding to our core position if this happens and volatility is right. Our Bull & Bear price level is clear and as long as we above it we want to be buyers only. A failure of March 2023 Low we would have to revaluate our current thesis. Happy trading have a GREAT WEEK.! =============================================================== SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHANNEL & FOLLOW THIS TRADE IDEA FOR UPDATES.
CBOE:SPXLong
by seekingpips
1
whether it can break through the volume profile sectionHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (NAS100USD chart) During the volatility period, it rose to the volume profiel section of 12896.2-13418.8. It is expected that the trend will be determined by whether there is support or resistance in this area. Therefore, if it rises, it is expected to continue the upward trend only when it rises above 13231.6-13480.9. Conversely, it is expected to continue the downtrend only when it falls below 12716.0-12896.2. If it rises above 13480.9, there is a possibility of a sharp uptrend. If it falls below 12716.0, it is important to find support around 12497.5. ----------------------------------------------- (SPX500USD chart) The key is whether it can rise above 4116.4123.5 and be supported. ----------------------------------------------- (DXY chart) After the volatility period around April 3, it shows a decline below 102.020. Therefore, the question is whether resistance can be found below 101.494. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
OANDA:NAS100USD
by readCrypto
1