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US SPX 500

SPX quick weekend updateIm on the road all day today, my connection flight is being delayed over 4hrs now. Had no time do a research, so can be wrong or can be right:) First of all Fri low came exactly on CPI gap open! I did tweet about it on Fri that I expected that number to be at least good for a bounce. It just stopped there. Closing above afternoon highs is usually a bullish sign going into Monday. But making new lows on Fri means that more weakens to come next week, which I do expect to happen with a low to come on the 22nd. 21st is a winter solstice, can mark a low or a high, I expect a low in 3750SPX zone. My best thinking is that we either make a low to 3808-12SPX tomorrow or just go up from the open to 3950-60SPX high but Tuesday am. There is also a resistance at 3900-11SPX and 3933SPX. If we do see 3808SPX tested in am, I will be only long for a Tuesday high, then short for the 22nd low. Timing is everything in out business, so that would be my plan for tomorrow's trading. Hope I get home at least not as late. BTW there will be a big announcement tomorrow, stay tuned! Have a profitable week!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
S&P500 LOOKS GOOD HERE ON MONTHLYTwo strong technical factors are giving the S&P500 support to continue up over the long term. Bouncing off the MA200 and a direct hit of the 50% fib retrace means the downside will have a low probability going forward. Of course, macro factors could play a role in changing its course but as it stands I am fairly confident this is a one-way ticket. As mentioned above, we could see a small downside to 3700 -+ before the continuation to the upside. Of course, you should remember this could take some time as we are looking at a monthly chart, but basically, I'm saying limited downside from here and a greater percentage of upside. This would also work with economic timing and the so-called recession people are saying we are heading for, this may be so or maybe not so, but most likely more of a mild recession from an American point of view. (Other countries may not be so lucky.) So all this FUD may end just as the S&P500 wants to go up, and then you are looking at fireworks, and the timing of that is what we must look out for.
FX:SPX500Long
by danielgwatkin
SPX - Fork in the roadCurrently the S&P 500 can be seen in 3 views. I have a primary view and two alternates: First, the yellow path - my primary. After the FED comes out today, I think it'll cause a pullback in the market, but it won't be what everybody is expecting. I expect the pullback to complete a small correction from the top and pull back to around 3880-3900. Bears will get frothy and will be late to the short game. From there, a spike on "Black Friday" can take markets up to my target of 4150. Second, the green path. Difference here is an ABC correction vs a WXY correction. Minor difference, but this one sees us in a wave 3 going up to wave 5 at the same 4150 target in the first point. What I like about this count is the ABC in wave X for the first point doesn't look great as wave C into X doesn't look geometrically pleasing to me. What I don't like about this being a 1-2 is the move into wave 1 doesn't look super impulsive and looks corrective. That's why I put this as my second favorite count. Still with the same target at 4150 and probably on Friday. Last but not least is my 3rd count which isn't on the chart. It basically has the top being in ~4040 and we're in a bearish 1-2 pattern to the downside. I think this is the least probable at the moment. The move down from the top into the 38.2% retracement looks very corrective and doesn't look impulsive at all. If this is true, however, the target to the downside will come lower than we expect. Ok, now what? Now that we're at this critical juncture, a fork in the road, we have multiple scenarios that can play out here. Most of them have targets higher short term. Ultimately I think we're going to stay down here and possibly make a new yearly low before mid-December. Best case scenario, we're building a leading diagonal to create a start of a new major uptrend. Worst case scenario, we go down to 3300-3500 by EOY. Our options analysis looking into the next few weeks shows the following: Call/Put $ value and not Open Interest 11/25/2022: 92.2/7.8 12/2/2022: 85.7/14.3 12/9/2022: 75.9/24.1 12/16/2022: 98.7/1.3 (OpEx) 12/16/2022: 96/4 (normal Weekly) 12/23/2022: 68/32
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bitdoctor
2
SPX500 - Bearish bounce inside descending wedge, more downside?SPX500, not a ton of volume, but has clearly made a higher low and bounced off the top of this long term trend line. Looking for a new low somewhere around end of January then decision time from there. Of course any of this cold be invalidated with a massive move either direction. I would be careful listening to the news, as they seem to only be able to come up with reasons that something happened after the fact. Charts tell the true story.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by mfrancisdli
2
Selling SPX at previous support.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3918 (stop at 3988) Trades at the lowest level in 25 days. The 161.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 3861 from 4140 to 3968. The medium term bias remains bearish. Bespoke support is located at 3504. Our profit targets will be 3745 and 3505 Resistance: 3918 / 3958 / 4140 Support: 3861 / 3746 / 3503 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:USSP500CFDShort
by Saxo
spx 12-15 [evening update\ alternative]good evening, what a week right? got an alternative setup right here --- take a look at this pitchfork pull from ath 👇 it does seem like we're attempting to back-test it from above, after a successful break-out. some bullish divergence is present. --- take a look at the us dollar, which is playing out a 4th wave right now, of the 5 wave sequence to the downside 👇 --- could it be possible that we're still in a wave 4 of the 5 wave sequence? yep, it is possible - just less probable than the top being in locally. it would be quite outrageous if we did end up expanding up to 4300 into the end of this year, so expect the unexpected. --- downside target on this smaller e.f at 3860~3840. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
7
SPX so far so good from yesterday's updateI was sleeping in today after my BD celebration yesterday and what a present I got:) The only issue is I didnt short 2am last night as was looking to do it and tweeted about it! Good I got some of those lotto puts (tweeted yesterday as well) We got a gap down I was looking for, hope people are not trapped long since yesterday as I warned so many times as well as tweeted! Now the question if SPX gets below 3832-31, then it should close at the lows and the next support will be at 3808 (target I was looking for for last several days) Usually these types of moves are ending up with closing at the lows, so if we get a bounce, I will short it to exit either tomorrow am or AHs
SP:SPX
by RealTima
9
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 12/15Bull Trap from Last Week Re-testing Key Support In our last trading plans published on Wed., 12/07, we wrote: "Last two sessions turned the recent spike up into a bull trap. However, our models are indicating that the index is likely to find some support around the 3910-3915 range. Longs might want to wait to see if the index holds this level, and shorts need to be nimble in taking their profits if it does". Our models went into an indeterminate state since then and have come out with some trading levels only this morning. If you went to sleep after reading our last trading plan and are waking up today, you would not realize that a full week of trading transpired since then, as we are exactly where we were then! The bounce from our published support level proved only short-lived post the FOMC rate decision yesterday, and the index is feeling heavy again. With the key support level of 3900-3910 in the range again, BOTH bulls and bears need to be nimble in any positions they open today, as any bounce or breakdown could be swift and spiky. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going long on a break above 3955 or 3925 with a 35-point trailing stop and a hard stop on a break below 3940, and going short on a break below 3930 or 3895 with a 40-point trailing stop and a hard stop on a break above 3913. Models also indicate instituting a break-even hard stop once a position gets into a 10-point profit level. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 12/15: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3955, 3948, or 3915 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3940, 3933 or 3910 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3963, and short exits on a break above 3896. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #fomc
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
The 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse"When the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, “Come.” I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him. Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth." Congratulations. If you've been following my ideas then you've done very well for yourself this. Sadly, all good things must come to an end and we must bring this bull run to a close. However, not without some spectacular fireworks at the end to give everyone hope things are turning around. Overleveraged governments and companies will collapse within the next 3 months causing spillover across the globe, glorious. I'm scaling into puts as we've hit the peak of what should be expected (don't be surprised if we get 400) and am going all in on this play on the 24th. God speed to you all and I hope to see you alive in the apocalypse once the dust has settled. Previous posts:
AMEX:SPYShort
by PlayerNonZero
SPX pathway into 19th lowThis is the best I can come up with today. i didnt do much research today. Want to see a lower low in am and bounce after the Interest rate decision, then the whole move will be faded after Powell starts talking. Short around 2am, buy am low for the interest rate decision and sell that rip (if we get one) right before Powell starts talking. Thats my plan for tomorrow I have a price to short at 4044-47SPX and 4080SPX, those are the levels to watch, especially the second number. ES resistance is at 4090-99 Its my BD tomorrow, might be less active, but will try to tweet my trades. Resistance levels are the same - 4028-34SPX - 4100-4110SPX Main support on closing level is 3933SPX. I still think we should see 3748SPX gap filled this month and 3212SPX early (Q1) next year
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
spx 12-14 [morning update]good morning 👽 --- everyone is excited today, this is the big day which everyone's been waiting for! the rate announcement owo. right? --- the stage is perfectly set imo, beautifully orchestrated by the puppet master who runs this show. to put into the minds of the exploitable that we're simply going to go up the same way that we did yesterday. --- but there's a dark twist to the story, whatever jpow's gotta say is priced in. it's nothing new, we all know what he's gonna say - so a capitulation phase is expected, to raid the lows, to kill every single call which expires on friday followed by a grind up into the end of this year into the $4300 range. --- not financial advice homies, just my unique perspective \ opinion on the market. --- --- ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
Es 12-13 [evening update].good evening owo. --- few words before i share my thoughts. the market is a very complex instrument - there's never a sure path as it is completely controlled by human emotion, and complicated algorithms. we as traders must adapt to the ever-changing market conditions, or else we risk getting left behind (simple as that). there's a dozen different paths the market can take at any given moment, but it generally takes the path of mass destruction. >what i mean by this, is the market doesn't care about bulls nor bears - it'll simply do whatever it takes to suck away all of their money, collectively. --- that being said, i think a lot of people are very bearish overly pessimistic, terrified, and not expecting higher prices at this time. a very small portion of the market understands the lunar cycles, let alone what a "mercury retrograde is \ how it impacts the global markets". >not gonna give you an astrological lesson here - but you can keep an eye out for my videos where i dive deep into these topics sometimes. today's sharp rejection scared the last of the bull bro's, and has sent the bear bro's into full euphoria. what i think comes next, is an unexpected occurrence - a pure melt up phase to roughly $4300 which will make a very significant peak in this market for at least 30 days after it is reached. --- if you saw my video this morning, you know what my stance on the market is - and this is a slightly modified look to that particular idea as of today's price action. --- not financial advice, be very careful in the days ahead. ☝ 💰 👇 --- ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
12-13 es intraday update ~ quick intra day update here, --- ◉hidden bull present on 30m money flow ◉30m rsi almost completely reset (pending hidden bull) ◉got a few other indicators which aren't on my chart which are flashing a buy here ◉spy gap filled ◉iv crushed ◉retail - destroyed. potential expansion into the 4200+ area if jpow does something totally unexpected tomorrow. 👇👇 Alt path is red, if we confirm a break down from here - it will get very ugly, very quickly. --- trade safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
SPX is at support, bounce to be shorted, resistance at 4040Well who would of know about gap and crap? My yesterday post had it all covered. The magnitude of a gap up I had no idea about and it came quite strong, but still made a lower higher into that Yellow resistance line That Yellow line comes from Feb 2020 high, so its a very important resistance. I have taken several trades on the open, sold calls and bought puts, now my puts are covered and I will re short at or above 4040SPX My first main target is at 3953SPX so my bear spread would be buy 3955 and sell 3940 all SPX exp 19th of Dec. I did post screen short for some trades I took, it was a great trade. I still have bear spreads I bought at the close yesterday, those should get to BE easily if we see my target today. There is a support at 3984-88SPX, I will go long there for a bounce with a stop
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10