ES short ? Tomorrow is a key and pivotal moment for ES and the rest of the market…a good reaction to NFP tomorrow morning and we change trend moving forward, but a bad reaction and this likely starts the next leg lower. You can take a speculative short w small size here and target 4000 with a stop loss above 4110. Preferably i prefer to wait until the reaction and react accordingly. If we break the trend we likely head to 4300 area before years end. If we break 4000 then 3950 is on the table minimum, and we can possibly test lows in the next few months. I am inclined to lean bullish based on Dow already breaking its TL and making a higher high, plus high yield bonds breaking its trend as well as yields and DXY as well…which has marked major lows in the past
US SPX 500
hiking can be exhausting It is my opinion that some form of a top is here. i have closed my calls.....
even if we don't sell off and just go sideways; i don't think we will see higher all of dec. which means no santa rally this year.
the bullish run should continue very early jan (jan 4 maybe) 2023.
as an overview. i do think the bear market is over. i do think the bull market will continue well into next year, but nothing goes straight up and 20% move is a decent move.
happy holidays to all.
Is the SPX500 about to break this massive resistance?!!This resistance line is in place since all the way back in January '22. The moment we break this I am expecting a massive relief rally for the SPX500. And if the DXY falls more this will give it even more fuel to make a good upwards move. If the SPX500 breaks we could see the Bitcoin price go up as well.
The break would ne around 4115 ish (Dec 5)
Trade safe!
SPX what a day! Close above 4075SPXNow the next target is the ideal extension target 4119+- few points
Ideally we get that number tested by the 5th and see 3750 filled EOM
It was a panic cycle day and I did mention about it many times in my posts.
One was done during my last night update together with the explanation.
We got that a move in one direction above previous high or low, it was up the upside.
Also mentioned that it was holding well during the day and huge calls activity.
I did trade lotto SPY 408 Dec 1st calls, bought 20 at 6.5c on average, exited at 57 and most of it at 1.08-1.35, amazing lotto
Also did few NQ calls, was restriking all afternoon taking profits on those in green, still have 2 running for tomorrow's am exit if not tonight
Careful with being long here as the upside is limited and usually the FED day gets reversed by Fri, will it be the same this time, I dont know.
There is a good short setup around 4120SPX level, no need to chase the market at this point if missed the long play today
es 11-8good evening,
quick update for you.
--
i'm starting to view this correction from a very different perspective as of today.
shared a video on yt going over the entire count in depth if you're interested.
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i'm eyeing an expansion to 4130 before we dip back down into the market depths
possible we see a low time frame dip to about 3650 before we head on up there.
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ps. i could be wrong about this count, so i don't recommend trading off it.
✌
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 11/30: Post-Powell SpeechDue to the event risk of Powell's speech at 1:30pm EST, our Aggressive Intraday models do not indicate any trading plans for today.
Our Positional Trading Models ended yesterday with an open long that was carried into the Powell's speech. Models indicate carrying the long into the overnight session, with the 36-point trailing stop intact. Also, models indicate an exit on a break below 3996.
For the details of the trading plans published yesterday, see below:
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SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 11/29 by TradersAITradingPlans on TradingView.com
SPX 500#SPX 500
Completed the Impulsive Waves " 12345 " and Corrective Wave " AB " and Forming its " C " Corrective wave in a ELLIOT Triple Wave Combo Pattern
It will Follow the Sell Trend if it Rejects from the Fibonacci Level - 78.60% ( 4148.08 )
Selling Divergence in LTF
Rising Wedge need Rejection from the UTL
SPX pathway going into tomorrowIf the price will gap down from the open, I expect the price to hit low 39 hundred.
The a rally into the FED speech, where more volatility is expected.
All day today the price stopped at 10EMA on 1h, not a bullish sign
Its a panic cycle day, a move, explanation below:
- Given their abrupt or dramatic nature, panic cycles do not necessarily reflect changes in trend or a new high or low—they tend to align to short-term moves or temporary corrections.
- A relatively fast, one-way price move, either exceeding a previous high or penetrating a previous low, but not both.
My pathway for tomorrow is:
- open (gap down) and test low 3900
- rally back to 3970-80SPX (important to hold on any test)
- strong sell after Powell opens his mouth
Im expecting bottom on Dec 1st.
Also tomorrow can produce a very strong selling (if happens, then only after Powell speaking) and it should follow through into the next day.
Ideally we retrace all the way to Oct 13th low, it will be a huge buy for a rally back to 3850+ at min by Dec 5-6th.
The low is expected by Dec OPEX.
The cycles might get inverted, so tomorrow's move will be important to determine a low or a high by Dec OPEX
Tomorrow (again IF we start breaking down hard) must close below 3906SPX for a double reversal confirmation.
That close will confirm the move down to test 3744-50SPX
Resistance is at 3975-80, 4001-10.50, then gap fill and 4037-45SPX, closing above will produce a next target 4120SPX
I might be tweeting my trades life tomorrow
Have a good night
es 11-28 update ~good evening,
quick update to one of the two bear cases i posted over the weekend.
(post pinned at the bottom of this thread).
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es1! has been tapping at the local golden zone quite a few times recently,
each poke results in a weaker dip which continues to get absorbed (accumulation).
there's no notable bearish divergence present for now,
in fact, we printed a hidden bullish divergence near the end of today -
which validates in my mind that we're going to go higher.
---
>watching 3910 as a local bottom into wednesday,
>which is a heavy area of demand + a window of algorithmic confluence.
>upside target from there sits at the original 4130 level,
>with a slight chance to expand to 4190 if things get heated into the end of this year (short squeeze).
---
ps. it's also possible that we've topped,
but i personally have reason to believe that we haven't (for now).
---
posts which led to this one
👇
SPX pathway to close the CPI gap if the FED does not pivotI dont see the FED to pivot any time soon.
It can be another Jackson Hall event which will start a new directional move.
My ideal pathway is the low around Dec OPEX and high early Jan (might be the 200MA test)
Must hold numbers on closing level for tomorrow are:
- 3944.50-45
- 3906.50
Both are maj support zones.
Second number fits the best with other trendlines align around 3906-14SPX level
If the price will get a 4k test in am, it will be a perfect short for a move down to 3944SPX a min if not more.
Both long and short setups are coming, be patient if not in a trade already, be patient if you're
I gave you the levels to watch, feel free to use them for your own homework.
Have a good night.
Spx500 Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
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Talked about this one recently via:
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My estimated top for the Spx500 = $4080~$4742.
High probability target = $4164.50.
---
My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $3550~2576.50
High probability target = $3233.25
🔺
Financial Wave. spx500In SPX, price consolidation continues and the uncertainty of further movement remains. In past reviews, we considered the fall of the index as a priority scenario, and we will return to it if the price falls below 3900p. The 4113p and 4322p levels are critical for the downtrend, and if they are overcome, SPX will move into an active growth phase. We’ll continue to monitor and update you on changes to SPX.
SPX DailyThere is a potential H&S on longer time frame I mentioned before, noted on this chart as well
Must hold support for the next week is at 3898-3920SPX. Has to hold on any test, otherwise the price will revisit the Oct 13th gap very quickly
My ideal pathway is bottom on the 1st (I still see month of Nov close red at least compare to the previous month) and bounce into the 6th-7th high.
If cycles gets inverted, then we should see the low tomorrow and high on the 1st, then it will be a first low on the 6-7th
The best scenario for the EOM trade is we see low prices tomorrow am and bounce into 29th high.
Then (after the 29th high) reversal down (strong) for the 1st of Dec low.
30th is showing up as a panic day on all indexes, so expect a strong move in direction of the 29th close.
- The price might get the gap closed on the 29th (ideal pathway) and continue in a strong move down.
Ideally its closes in direction down, it will be a good confirmation for the price going lower into the 1st low.
- Ideal target is 3744-55SPX or Oct 13th gap close
After the 1st low, it gets tricky. Its either makes a low on the 6th and up into the week of Dec 26th or, ideally a high and down into EOY.
Jan seems to be the monthly low of this entire move down from the ATH, perfect 1 year celebration.
Intraday low might not come till Mar or even May.
Here is zoomed in chart link
There is not much of a support below 3866 till 3744SPX, its the must hold Bear/Bull support for the next week.
If looking for the extensions, I have resistance at
- 4037
- 4045
- 4068-76 (main target)
- 4118-20 (Maj resistance)
Will be tweeting my other simple chart as can't attach it here.
Im swing short and will use the next high to exit all the remaining protective longs I have.
Have a great and profitable week everyone!
SPX 4H Analysis📈Trade Idea📉
🟡 #S&P500 Index 4H
✍️We can have two trading scenarios for this index. Considering that S&P is in the Equilibrium range, it can move as a continuation movement (CP) to the supply ranges in the chart (Premium), of course, with the condition of penetrating and closing a four-hour high candlestick (PDH-PWH). In this case, consider two scenarios for trading.
In the first scenario, you can use the supply ranges specified in the chart to activate sell orders.
The second scenario is for traders who are looking for a long stop in this index, they can use the block order limits specified in the chart. For trading in these areas, you can place your trade as a limit by observing the stop loss.
🟢Minor Order Block >🟢3640$ -3684$
🟢Major Order Block >🟢3740$ -3780$
🔴Minor Order block >🔴4080$ - 4120$
🔴Major Order Block> 🔴4165$-41250$
📊Poc (Point of Control) : 3960$
⚠️ Margin 1% For each position.
⚠️Use Tight StopLoss.
✍️Desert Eagle
📊Analysis Method SMART Money
Concept + ICT+ Volume Profile
(DYOR)
📆11.27.2022
⚠️This Analysis will be Updated⚠️
💸Good Luck Traders.
S&P 500 Chart Analysis....
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it,
write in the comments. I will be glad.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 28
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 28
Little market participation due to Thanksgiving week.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) If volume is thin, stay out
2) Temporary short if 4050 is rejected
3) Long if support comes in at 3928 / 4050
Weekly: ND up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: UT + ND = weakness
H4: Very high vol + narrow spread = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4050 3928 3751
3580 3502 3350
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Spx500 Bear Case #2 [Primary]This is the second bear case,
and it just so happens to be my primary scenario on the US Stock market .
Just wanted to get the simple counts out of the way, before sharing this one.
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Using the expanding diagonal fractal for the first wave from ath,
it's possible the spx500 is only in "wave a" on this local move up (of a larger a-b-c)
this is currently the scenario i'm personally leaning towards.
let me explain why:
-lines up with my dxy projection.
-insider buys, are about to flip insider sells.
-retail short interest is at record high levels.
-retail is usually wrong.
-so how do we get retail out, while still dropping the market?
1 word. chop.
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If the market chops for another 3-6+ months, every last bear standing will get absolutely rekt.
And only after-which, once the short interest disappears, and the last put expires worthless-
will the markets see the final cataclysmic collapse.
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Stay safe, and don't go into a trade without a plan.
🔺
Ps. i recently called the expanding diagonal fractal out, and it ended up front running my target, which was kinda unexpected.
I understand why it did as of now, and it was an important lesson for the future.
check out that post via:
🔺