Reposting my weekend update for those who didnt see itMy weekend update was banned as noted other place, Im re-posting now:
I have cycles top on Tuesday and choppy period into 22nd low
The way I see here is that the price is about to finish the wave 2 and 3rd wave will bring the price down into third week of Dec.
Dont see and Santa Rally this year, it should be a Santa Crappy.
Nov month should be lowest monthly close when Dec will be higher and Jan 2023 will be another lower monthly close.
Intra day low might not come till Apr or even May.
I have volatility rising from tomorrow all the way into EOM .
I do expect a good down move tomorrow, which will be bought.
Main support now is at 3910-15SPX and smaller degree support at 3950-58SPX
Resistance and target on the upside are on the chart with notes.
Maj resistance on closing daily level is at 4010.50 SPX and weekly at 4116-18.
Ideal target for the high this month is 4118SPX level, might very well top in mid 4000
The way the price is going is not bullish but a bear rally, those can extend and be super fast (we got second part already)
Main support is at 3750-55SPX now, below it top is in.
My game plan for tomorrow is buy low 39 handle for a move up into Tuesday high.
I have exited my MES short from Friday close at Sunday open and flipped to long from 83.50 and 84.50. Already took profits at 91.50 and 93.50 zone.
Im long some MNQ and my main position is swing short MNQ.
I will trim most of my long on Tuesday high.
US SPX 500
S&P500: Preparing for the next BEARISH move targeting the 3500!Hello, everybody and welcome to Cybernetics Trading Lab, today we are going to analyse the S&P500, translating the market information by using a full technical analysis on different time frames, giving you a personal opinion about the next most likely market movement and helping you to spot and manage market opportunities.
Top Down Technical Analysis:
Since the beginning of the 2022, the S&P500 has been moving inside a huge corrective structure, forming inside several impulses and corrections.
In May 2022, the market put in place the most recent swing high, where it got a strong rejection just during the previous august!
A strong bearish phase started since then , after the market bounced on the resistance and hit the third touch on the HTF corrective structure.
Currently, the market looks is corrective its previous move, a formation of a bearish flag could be a potential clue for a further bearish movement, targeting the level 3500!
When, where and why would we step into the market?
Considering the overall bearish bias, we would be looking only for short position.
The market is correcting following our conditions, and a breakout of the actual LTF structure would be our entry for a short till 3500.
In the scenario of deeper correction, we would consider to wait for a better entry, and the setup will be temporarily invalidated.
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Cybernetics Trading Lab
DISCLAIMER
Please note the views are not investment advice and should be used only for educational purpose.
S&P500 Analysis 13.11.2022Welcome to the BasicTrading channel.
My name is Philip and in todays analysis I quickly go over the situation which we currently have on the S&P500.
I will analyse the asset both from a weekly and daily timeframe to show you the best possible trading opportunities.
If you enjoyed this analysis, let me know in the comment section which asset I should analyse tomorrow.
I will personally reply to every single comment.
Dont forget to smash that rocket and I will see you tomorrow with a new analysis.
SPX500USD Will Move Higher! Long!
Hello,Friends!
In this market situation, I am looking at multiple indicators
And I can see bullish momentum accumulating on the pair right now
This setiment makes me bullish biased and I am considering a long!
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPX checkout the Bollinger bandsInteresting how those Bollinger bands expanded and moved against each other.
Last time I saw this, it didnt held up for long.
I wont short this till tomorrow, I want VIX close below the lower Bollinger band and SPX above for a sell signal.
Its over 3933SPX now, should push to 3959-60SPX and if taken, we will see 4010-20SPX I mentioned last night
What is important to watch for the SPX?Today the CPI numbers got released and turned out good! The DXY and Yields are falling of a cliff and the SPX is making a strong bounce. But is it enough?
We need to see the downwards line to be broken and retested. If we break it and are able to stay above it we are really clear to see more upwards momentum.
Short and simple but this is the play. Trade safe!
SPX bounced off resistance, all eyes on 3907SPXSPX must close above 3907 today to confirm the breakout!
Bounced off resistance on this move, super extended and overbought now.
Resistance is at 3933SPX, broken trend channel test from the bottom
I have trimmed my longs (from yesterday's 3755-60ES entry) before the CPI, oh well, cant win them all.
SPX is still in its opening channel
Tomorrow is a directional change day, will confirm the breakout if the price stays up above 3907 and can get above 3933SPX
Volatility is rising into Nov 23rd, I still expect lower into that day, only after a good rally up into EOM
For now day trading for me with a core short position
SPX can possibly limit down tomorrowWant to make a special disclaimer here:
Do not bet your house on this if you're trading futures (ETF option market is closed) as I might be completely wrong!
I want to present you a possibility of another mini crash tomorrow (Oct 13th like) maybe even limit down!
If CPI comes hot tomorrow am that could produce another huge sell off like we saw on Oct 13th.
CPI poll, make your bets here, share with others:
strawpoll.com
There are several big issues out there which can contribute to a potential move down:
- Treasury reduction,
- Crypto crash (leading imo),
- Hot CPI,
- 10 year action,
- Midterms uncertainty (10000% rigged again)
- Liquidity is a bigger problem then ever this year (there wont be a bid till it's limit down imo)
- Lunar eclipse
- Also SAR produced 3 days dots above the price, means the trend is lower and we have a perfect 1-2 setup to the downside
Now lets talk about the price and levels:
All we need is an open below 3689-3700 and continue sell from the open
Supports are at:
- 3689 SPX
- 3610-45 SPX (support box) where 3610SPX is the maj support, loosing it we get down to:
- 3543-52 SPX
- 3509 is where the limit down target is
- Below 3500 it will not stop till 3415SPX!!!
So if this happens you are ready and prepared to trade it.
Opening below 3689-3700 will act as a maj resistance for tomorrow and all stops must be there.
I will add to my short either before the CPI or right after.
Trail short from the open and seat back and relax, as if it goes, there wont be any good bounce due to lack of liquidity.
Ideally we see a ramp up into the numbers, but with the election results it could be muted and we wont get a desired rally.
Ideal resistance for tonight is at 3780-85ES, I will be closing my longs from 3756 there and flip short with a wide stop.
So again, this is a potential I see for tomorrow, if Im wrong and CPI comes lower then expected we could see a decent rally up to 3900 if not 4k (not in one day of course)
SPX500USD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Hello,Friends!
Indecision in the market is changing
Towards a well defined bearish sentiment
And the price action on the lower timeframes
Is clearly supporting this narratve
Therefore, I think it is a goodidea to go short!
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P500 SPXThis is what I see the market doing in SPX ... they will push it towards 3881.16 (blue line) or 3857.55 which is POI at where 194.70M Orders are waiting to be collected in order for it to sell at 3568.88 ( bottom green line) but thats only if the body does not close above 3901.46 (black line) but if it does close above, expect for the market to hit 4057.26 (top green line). Going back to my selling position at 3881.1 As you can see the consolidations from Sept. 16 to Nov. 7 looks like they're leaning towards a small push in order for the SPX to drop.
SPX long termHe is a bit cleared out chart for my long term view on the SPX.
I think (as was saying all year long), that we will revisit 2020 lows and ideally make a higher low at 2855SPX or if super weak low 2400 (less odds at this point) by Mar/Apr 2023.
If there is a H&S playing out and we will know soon enough, then the price should get down to 3k zone
My ideal target for this year low is at 3212SPX with min 3389SPX (which I think will be sliced/wont hold long if tested)
Maj support going into Nov 10-11th low is at 3610 to 3656 SPX, where 3610SPX is the maj support.
Below 3610SPX the price will test min 3543-56SPX is not all the way to re-test Oct 13th lows.
If in fact that happens, then the move down to 3389 and ideally 3212SPX will be very fast and will bottom on Nov 21-22nd.
Ideally we test 3389SPX level on Nov 21-22nd, rally up back to 3545-55SPX and ideally back to 3610-55SPX by EOM and make a final low in Dec either at 3212 or that mid 3k zone.
I do think 3k will be a very solid support and will hold this year.
This year is a pure bear market and so many still expecting a Santa Rally, I think we get Santa Crappy instead.
So after a good size rally (13-18%) from Dec lows to mid Jan high
Early next year it will be a perfect scenario where the price dives down to 2855 and low 24 handle to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs.
Then I think the price will start to move up with the money flow from the European countries and other countries to a safe heaven - the US stock market.
DOW will benefit the most imo, so I expect DOW to outperform, SPX to follow.
That high might be a double top sometime in 2026 and then another move down to 1550SPX zone by 2030-32
So if played right and give enough time to your trade, a lot of money can be made playing long term/swing this pathway
Have a good night, tomorrow will be interesting, expect a lot of volatility to hit the market going all the way till Christmas time
SPX can be in a much bigger H&S patternIf this H&S plays out/triggers we will see the price in 3k zone
For now there is a support box for the move lower.
Expect unexpected, as the price was tested so many times on the downside, it can break next time it does test it.
Also if this is a start of the wave 3 down, it will be fast and with min retracements, so be careful when trying catching the knife
Sar dots on daily are printing from the top 3rd day in a raw, 4h just joined the party
VIX and UVXY got very green already
Im swing short and my timing for the low is 21-22nd of Nov
Should move down into 10-11th low, then up into the 15-16th and final push to 21-22nd low
SPX500USD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Hello,Friends!
In this market situation, I am looking at multiple indicators
And I can see bearish momentum accumulating on the pair right now
This sentiment makes me bearish biased and I am considering a short!
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Buying SPX on dips.US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3785 (stop at 3770)
Broken out of the triangle formation to the upside.
The measured move target is 3898.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3785-3835.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 3835 and 3898
Resistance: 3835 / 3865 / 3898
Support: 3785 / 3700 / 3484
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S&P500 SPXThis is what I see the market doing in SPX... they will push it towards 3881.16 (blue line) or 3857.55 which is POI at where 194.70M Orders are waiting to be collected in order for it to sell at 3568.88 ( bottom green line) but thats only if the body does not close above 3901.46 (black line) but if it does close above, expect for the market to hit 4057.26 (top green line). Going back to my selling position at 3881.1 As you can see the consolidations from Sept. 16 to Nov. 7 looks like they're leaning towards a small push in order for the SPX to drop.
S&P 500 SPXThis is what I see the market doing in SPX... they will push it towards 3881.16 (blue line) or 3857.55 which is POI at where 194.70M Orders are waiting to be collected in order for it to sell at 3568.88 ( bottom green line) but thats only if the body does not close above 3901.46 (black line) but if it does close above, expect for the market to hit 4057.26 (top green line). Going back to my selling position at 3881.1 As you can see the consolidations from Sept. 16 to Nov. 7 looks like they're leaning towards a small push in order for the SPX to drop.