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US SPX 500

SPX next week pathwayIm looking for an ABC move up tomorrow for a new high 3815-35SPX (if we wont take Fri lows) Ideally we bottom in ES deeper then the cash price and cash will get its 50% retracement hit in am tomorrow, then we go up to close the Sunday opening gap Then we should fall hard into 34 handle territory. My timing is a low in Nov for the year and Jan high, then Mar/Apr maj low of this move. Note this: Fed is removing $40B by Nov 15, then aprox $20B/week through the EOY So dont expect Santa being nice to the bullz...
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX updated Fri chartFibs are on the chart, so far stopped at 50% retracement, I would expect 61.8 to get hit today, right into the resistance trendline (black line) Yesterday's box was resistance, now its a support, use that if you want to go long (if we get a pullback today) I was expecting this rally, but missed am entry, had one NQ running on the long side from yesterday and that was closed at the open spike. I have also added back to my swing short MNQ (was closed those at 645 and 685 mentioned pre-market on that spike down), not doing anything else, as this can stretch up into the 7th and I dont want to increase my short position here. You saw how they can do destroy both sides with am fckery, so have stops if you are in green, do not let your trade turn against you! Again its Friday, DO NOT OVER TRADE! Dont give them back your weekly gains!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
31
SPX - I got you all targets hit! Well we hit all the targets outlined on Oct 30-31st. Now if we wont hold today's lows we will see mid 3600 - I have a box zone at 3665-75 - and 3641.50-50SPX as the next target zone, where 3641.50 is a Maj support on closing level! - Supports on the way are - 3718-20SPX - 3689SPX Resistance: - 3791-3803 - 3907 is where the Maj resistance again Also I want to present a possibility I was taking about on Oct 31st update of a bigger H&S where its working on the head at the moment. I did some calculations and there is a chance we see 3552-89SPX on this leg down, that would be a perfect spot for the head to stop. Can extend into 3500 zone as I expect the whole move to be retraced in full from Oct 13th lows (mentioned this many times) Will post the H&S chart here in a bit
SP:SPX
by RealTima
33
Selling SPX into rallies.US500 - 7h expiry - We look to Sell at 3807 (stop at 3847) Trades at the lowest level in 8 days. Broken out of the wedge to the downside. The formation has a measured move target of 3629. We are trading at oversold extremes. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. 3810 has been pivotal. Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 3807. Our profit targets will be 3672 and 3629 Resistance: 3807 / 3810 / 3845 Support: 3672 / 3629 / 3600 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
SPX Weekend updateThis will be a quick update. As long as we hold 3907-13SPX on closing level we should see lower going into Tuesday am, then up into 2nd/3rd high. Another possibility is we bottom on the 2nd and reverse into the Midterms with higher levels to be seen, maybe even above 4-4.1k zone I really have no good support till the support cluster zone at 3739-3750SPX There are 2 supports on the way, look for 2 grey lines below the price. Ideally we gap down tomorrow and wont look back till 3750-40 zone is tested then a rally back to 3918SPX before the Fed decision. Im having a dilemma is we see a low or a high on the 2nd (pre-FED), ideally its a low and not the high, as I want to see a good push into Midterms with the high to be seen on week of Nov 7th. Then I would expect a strong move down to at least re-test of Oct 13th lows + or -, if not 34 handle. Its getting to a point where it can breakout, cant rule out that. If we do, we should see 4-4.1k and no way higher then 4300. Nov is a bearish month when going back to Mid-Term elections and since its a bear market, I expect Nov to be a red month with Oct being the high month. Tomorrow am will be a telling story, so far futures are slightly down and we have a gap from Sunday open, futures gaps always get filled! Will those be filled after a strong move down tomorrow into the 2nd or it might get filled before the open or in am at top. Again all eyes on 3907-13SPX as a maj resistance going into tomorrow. If the price closes strongly above that resistance tomorrow, I will get long into Nov 2nd high. So far Im swing short and quite under the water from Fri close. Its going to be a very volatile month, so dont get emotional thinking that you're missing the train and jump when tomorrow it all can dramatically change
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX still unclearI have no good feeling on either direction here. Its all can be muted all the way till the 2nd decision In idea it has to gap down and retrace into Fri am lows around 3808SPX or so Ideally we test 374-50 support zone and then rally up for a higher or lower high, back testing 3907-13SPX level Its all up to 3707-13SPX level on closing level, bull/bear line Futures are up at this moment, so hard to make a call here, If we hold in am, I will do a long trade as it might get another squeeze into 4010-20SPX zone with 3960SPX as a smaller degree resistance on the way. Im swing short and under the water, I do believe that November month will be negative and I have huge doubts of Santa Rally being present this year. There is a chance we get a Santa Crappy into EOY instead:) If I see something solid in am, I will post it right away, for now as long as we hold 3907-13SPX Im looking for lower levels to be seen.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
18
SPX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 SPX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.47%, decreasing from 7.49% of last month. This is currently placing us in the 85th percentile according to ATR and 100th according to VIX Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is: BEARISH Candle : 6.23% BULLISH Candle : 5.1% With this in mind we can expect with a close to 15.7% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel: BOT: 3610 TOP: 4200 Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a : 80% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 3900(already happened yesterday) 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 3492
SP:SPX
by exlux
SPX rejected its resistance, ES got its gap filled from SunNothing much to add today, another rejection of the top. As noted on Sunday, ES and NQ gaps (all futs gaps) always get filled, so it happened in am. I did long from 3901 and exited at 3922ES just for the am dump to take my gains with stop losses. I did few trades from 58 and 53 level, already exited SPX price is below the opening range and cant re take it, putting pressure for lower to be seen. I have a long order at 3814.50 and 3815ES, want that to hold and break only after the FED announcement fakeout. It seems its going to put a pressure lower into Fri numbers and rally into 7-8th if not the CPI release on the 10th. Then Im looking for much lower into week of 21st of Nov.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
Buying SPX at previous resistance.US500 - 8h expiry - We look to Buy at 3851 (stop at 3825) Trades at the highest level in 6 weeks. An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning. The previous swing high is located at 3912. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Bespoke resistance is located at 4065. We look to set longs in early trade for a further test of the fragile looking resistance. Our profit targets will be 3925 and 4060 Resistance: 3912 / 3925 / 4065 Support: 3869 / 3850 / 3800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
SPY S&P 500 ETF Bullish Ahead of Midterm ElectionsWasn`t it strange to see META losing 25% and AMZN 20% in one week, yet the SPX S&P 500 still being bullish?! :) I told you in the previews chart, because of the Midterm Elections: In every country is the same, politicians in power try to keep the markets optimistic ahead of elections to get more votes, because the economy is doing great thanks to them. I wouldn`t be surprised to see the SPY S&P 500 ETF touch the psychological price of $400 days before the vote, while televisions talk about a potential reversal. So we still have 8 days of unexpected bullish market while the earnings of the companies reporting are lower. And don`t get frustrated to see that this was another bear market rally and the SPY will touch the $338 Pre-Lockdown level before Christmas. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
5
SPX Bearish 5-0 Market at inflection area. Long term trend lines going back to 2009 have been tested. If Powell hikes 75 basis points as is 81% probability then the S&P could have another leg lower to go through before the Covid inflation genie is put back in the stimmy check bottle. Put option skew is not too bad and the Vix is down. A cheap way to play it would be to buy $3600 puts for December. IF you are right, Merry Christmas. IF you are wrong and Santa tape bombs the market higher you don't lose too much and certainly no sleep as you know the amount you most likely will lose. However, in the off chance the market just collapses to 3200 by year end it seems like a pretty decent trade. However, this is not financial advice. Financial advisors usually just tell people to buy stonks. I think its almost criminal personally, but asset gathering is the way due to the fee and margin pressures thanks to the fact that everyone loses money trading and the index craze pays everyone else's cell phone bills. Some day traders will have more respect, but not without tighter money and a continued selloff, imho. Bless
AMEX:SPYShort
by NotFredo
SPX update Oct 28thTodays candle, if it closes up (it seems that it will), going to cancel the topping pattern candles we had last 2 days, means more squeeze to come. Next stop is at 3907-09SPX for the top of this move. Support is at 3725-35SPX and I will be buying it for that last target with a stop I have posted in comments this am: That my 50% short was stopped at BE other 50% I took off after the AMZN move, also some protective longs sold yesterday evening at a loss and rest this am with a small gain. I went back to sleep in am and now its a more clear picture to me. Im still in that B wave down camp, only it might be a start of a new wave and that C can be shorter as we are approaching 3907-09. If it does want to extend then we could see very well 4k, but Im not in that camp just yet. My target is the same for the next low - 3690-3718SPX at min, below we could see a retest of Oct lows, which I personally think will be re-tested and it should make new lows into 34 and 32 handle. Again there is no more crash window, but month of Nov is a seasonally bearish month after Oct high! Note this, that its bearish during the bear market, which we are now! Many will be looking for a bullish month of Nov based on regular seasonal pattern. My swing short is quite under the water after those being BE last night, Im holding those for my targets mentioned above
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17
Selling SPX into a mild rally.US500 - 9h expiry - We look to Sell at 3809 (stop at 3851) Following yesterday's bearish candle, the overall trend lower looks set to continue today. A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 3689 and 3640 Resistance: 3813 / 4325 / 4640 Support: 3690 / 3270 / 3000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
4
US500 LongHello guys. This index has been forming a bearish/ falling flag for the past few weeks and it broke out of the channel, retested it and a bullish momentum has been formed. My entry point for this trade is at 3800. My stop loss is placed below the previous market zone at 3720 and my targets are 3880, 3960 and 4040. My R:R is 1: 3. Remember, move your stop loss above the entry point when the market hits the first target(if the market tends to move according to our prediction). Risk only 1-2% of your account.
ULong
by Vapari_Inc