SPX second target touchdown!3776SPX was my second target, lets see if we can get a home run into that "ideal target" box
Posted this on Oct 31st
US SPX 500
SPX rememeber this chart?First support is broken, watching the ideal box target for a clue on whats next.
I will update you guys as fast as I can, love when the markets are moving, this is more fun
We should bottom by Fri am, so get ready to buy, ideally in mid 37 handle
SPX500 Wait For Breakout!!
SPX500 is trading in a rising wedge
But sp500 is stuck below
The horizontal resistance at 3870.76
And the bullish breakout has failed
So IF we see a bearish breakout
Of the rising wedge
Then I believe Will go down
SPX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 SPX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.47%, decreasing from 7.49% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 85th percentile according to ATR and 100th according to VIX
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 6.23%
BULLISH Candle : 5.1%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 15.7% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 3610
TOP: 4200
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
80% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 3900(already happened yesterday)
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 3492
SPX on the closeDoesnt look like a bullish setup to me.
Want to see a good sell off tomorrow and big rally into Nov 7-8th high
The low might come on the 4th, then short lived rally
Im swing short and I have also bought QQQ 270P exp on the 4th (will be out from them in am tomorrow, if we get a gap down open)
We will see...
SPX rejected its resistance, ES got its gap filled from SunNothing much to add today, another rejection of the top.
As noted on Sunday, ES and NQ gaps (all futs gaps) always get filled, so it happened in am.
I did long from 3901 and exited at 3922ES just for the am dump to take my gains with stop losses.
I did few trades from 58 and 53 level, already exited
SPX price is below the opening range and cant re take it, putting pressure for lower to be seen.
I have a long order at 3814.50 and 3815ES, want that to hold and break only after the FED announcement fakeout.
It seems its going to put a pressure lower into Fri numbers and rally into 7-8th if not the CPI release on the 10th.
Then Im looking for much lower into week of 21st of Nov.
Buying SPX at previous resistance.US500 - 8h expiry - We look to Buy at 3851 (stop at 3825)
Trades at the highest level in 6 weeks.
An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning. The previous swing high is located at 3912.
There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited.
Bespoke resistance is located at 4065.
We look to set longs in early trade for a further test of the fragile looking resistance.
Our profit targets will be 3925 and 4060
Resistance: 3912 / 3925 / 4065
Support: 3869 / 3850 / 3800
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Bullish Ahead of Midterm ElectionsWasn`t it strange to see META losing 25% and AMZN 20% in one week, yet the SPX S&P 500 still being bullish?! :)
I told you in the previews chart, because of the Midterm Elections:
In every country is the same, politicians in power try to keep the markets optimistic ahead of elections to get more votes, because the economy is doing great thanks to them.
I wouldn`t be surprised to see the SPY S&P 500 ETF touch the psychological price of $400 days before the vote, while televisions talk about a potential reversal.
So we still have 8 days of unexpected bullish market while the earnings of the companies reporting are lower.
And don`t get frustrated to see that this was another bear market rally and the SPY will touch the $338 Pre-Lockdown level before Christmas.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SPX Bearish 5-0 Market at inflection area. Long term trend lines going back to 2009 have been tested. If Powell hikes 75 basis points as is 81% probability then the S&P could have another leg lower to go through before the Covid inflation genie is put back in the stimmy check bottle.
Put option skew is not too bad and the Vix is down. A cheap way to play it would be to buy $3600 puts for December. IF you are right, Merry Christmas. IF you are wrong and Santa tape bombs the market higher you don't lose too much and certainly no sleep as you know the amount you most likely will lose. However, in the off chance the market just collapses to 3200 by year end it seems like a pretty decent trade.
However, this is not financial advice. Financial advisors usually just tell people to buy stonks. I think its almost criminal personally, but asset gathering is the way due to the fee and margin pressures thanks to the fact that everyone loses money trading and the index craze pays everyone else's cell phone bills. Some day traders will have more respect, but not without tighter money and a continued selloff, imho.
Bless
SPX update Oct 28thTodays candle, if it closes up (it seems that it will), going to cancel the topping pattern candles we had last 2 days, means more squeeze to come.
Next stop is at 3907-09SPX for the top of this move.
Support is at 3725-35SPX and I will be buying it for that last target with a stop
I have posted in comments this am:
That my 50% short was stopped at BE other 50% I took off after the AMZN move, also some protective longs sold yesterday evening at a loss and rest this am with a small gain.
I went back to sleep in am and now its a more clear picture to me.
Im still in that B wave down camp, only it might be a start of a new wave and that C can be shorter as we are approaching 3907-09. If it does want to extend then we could see very well 4k, but Im not in that camp just yet.
My target is the same for the next low - 3690-3718SPX at min, below we could see a retest of Oct lows, which I personally think will be re-tested and it should make new lows into 34 and 32 handle.
Again there is no more crash window, but month of Nov is a seasonally bearish month after Oct high! Note this, that its bearish during the bear market, which we are now! Many will be looking for a bullish month of Nov based on regular seasonal pattern.
My swing short is quite under the water after those being BE last night, Im holding those for my targets mentioned above
Selling SPX into a mild rally.US500 - 9h expiry - We look to Sell at 3809 (stop at 3851)
Following yesterday's bearish candle, the overall trend lower looks set to continue today.
A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 3689 and 3640
Resistance: 3813 / 4325 / 4640
Support: 3690 / 3270 / 3000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPX so far so goodFirst target is at 3808-09SPX We came super close to it
Next and most important target is at 3789SPX, closing below will be bearish.
Im looking for a low into EOM, will it be a re-test of Oct 2nd lows or just 3680-3720 I have no idea, today AHs will be a telling story
SPX positive divergense, not going to push anything just yetSPX there is a good setup for a push, will it break to the upside or just break, no idea.
Im leaning lower into EOM regardless of the outcome.
I will trade the breakout or breakdown test
On daily the chart is looking for lower, yesterday and today's candles are bearish to my eyes
US500 LongHello guys.
This index has been forming a bearish/ falling flag for the past few weeks and it broke out of the channel, retested it and a bullish momentum has been formed.
My entry point for this trade is at 3800. My stop loss is placed below the previous market zone at 3720 and my targets are 3880, 3960 and 4040.
My R:R is 1: 3.
Remember, move your stop loss above the entry point when the market hits the first target(if the market tends to move according to our prediction). Risk only 1-2% of your account.
Trend channel is brokenIm not buying till at least first support is tested.
Tomorrow should mark the top if it was not done today.
Im not trading the "last move up" as it might or might not come.
Those who are in ATH camp will get destroyed like they were all this year.
Its not going to bottom (for the year) till Nov low and the bottom would not come will Apr/May next year and it can be so much lower from where we are now!
SPX500 at very crucial Zone!Hey tradomaniacs,
SPX500 is testing a very strong resistance-zone which is crucial for the next moves.
We either get a market that prices in less rate-hikes by the FED as the inflation settles down while economy suffers (So market expects FED to support economy as inflation settles down),
or we get to see a market that prices in more rate-hikes due to higher CPIs than expected while the economy suffers (Stagflation).
What do you think will happen?
SPX my pathway for the next week or 2First of all I want to say thank you to my 1k+ followers as of today!
Means a lot to me, as it shows me that my work helps others to navigate the markets and my time spent posting charts gets respected.
Solar eclipse! Seems we have topped here, at least for now
There is also a lunar eclipse on Nov 7-8th, watch for a possible higher high if not lower high there.
So my pathway is down to 3689 or so, then up to 3908 or so and only after we go down to 3500SPX level again
Again, I do think we will re visit Oct 2nd lows at min, so that move could be it.
If this pathway will play out up to Nov 2nd, then I will be huge long from that level going into the Midterms and short that lunar eclipse high.
If in fact this all plays out, I do believe we will see my 3212SPX by Nov 21st week if not 2855SPX
This is my game plan, I do have a right to change it at any time if I see changes going against my pathway.
Have a good night and please dont forget to press that 🚀 button to push this chart up so more people will see it.
SPX updateI have missed all todays rally, had only a long from 3792 and exited at 3805
My swing short isnt in a best shape, but I have protective longs going till they stop working.
Maj resistance today is 3798SPX and its going to close above it.
Next maj resistance is at 3907 on daily and 3913-14 on weekly
Today is a solar eclipse day, usually markets top on or around solar eclipse day.
Im not buying this move up, its just all 3 waves moves up with extensions, nothing else.
The price is already getting to overbought zone and the fear and greed is already in neutral zone and getting close to cross the greed zone.
VIX is in support zone, but close to be broken to the downside, still lots of room there.
SPX supports are at 3825 and 3808-07 and then maj support is at 3789SPX
I have some price confluence in 3900-20SPX zone as mentioned yesterday and closing above 3820SPX will confirm that target.
Watching the price and 3820-25SPX test to enter with longs for 3900 target
SO far there is a small H&S on ES and NQ on 15min, not touching anything just yet.
SPX to stop climbing?US500 - 7h expiry- We look to Sell a break of 3812 (stop at 3867)
Prices have continued the bullish move higher and resulted in 3 consecutive positive days.
A lower correction is expected.
Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation.
A break of 3813 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum.
Further downside is expected.
Our profit targets will be 3680 and 3650
Resistance: 3863 / 4280 / 4550
Support: 3813 / 3505 / 2800
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long term chartThis is how I see the whole move developing into end of Q1 of the next year.
I do expect we will bottom on Mar/Apr (May if stretched) 2023 and then rally up into a bigger B wave up.
There is a chance that we will see 1550-1750SPX as well as 4300-4500 within next 10 years, doubt we see new highs till after 2032
Please note Im not a Nostradamus or a person who predicts the future, my view can be changed at any time if I see changes on long term charts.
Few numbers to watch
- 3196 is 61.8% retracement off 2020 lows
- 3238 is where 38.2% retracement off 2009 lows
Maj support for the whole move down is at 3200-3240SPX - A wave
B wave up to 4k+- (to be determent)
C wave down to my low 24 handle next year to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs.
SPX nothing much to add, still no confirmation of a breakoutIdeal target if the re-test of a broken flag holds
3798SPX is what Im watching on closing level.
Daily chart is setting up for a squeeze to 3900+
So lets see what the close number brings
SPX500: I'll keep being bearish until 4100Hi Traders,
This is my view for this week on SP500
I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected.
I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view.
Pit
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
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SPX is in mid range decision pointHappy Sunday everyone
Here is a 4h chart.
We are getting close to the breakout point, has to hold at that upper trendline
Main resistance is at 3775SPX, dont rule out a fakeout into 3800 to finish up C wave up.
- If breakout happens, will be watching for the test of the breakout trenline from the bottom and if broken out from the top.
- Will do a long trade on the test with a tight stop (if breakout happens)
- 3800-20SPX will be a very important level to watch or 3798SPX on closing level (bull/bear closing number)
- above 3820SPX we will see 3910-25SPX
Few things to mention:
- TRIN is at .69 on Fri close (can mark a top or within 2 days)
- VIX at support
- All main moving averages are pointing down
- Bull flag broken to the upside on Fri (something to pay attention to!)
- Right shoulder is getting close to invalidate, watching
Will be watching 3800 and 3645 SPX levels this coming week.
We have a directional change tomorrow as well as following Tuesday.
My thinking we will turn down hard on Monday and bottom on Tuesday fulfilling cycle low on the 24th
Then rally into the 27th high and down again into EOM or 2-4th of Nov
Will be looking a rally after the Midterms, which will be short lived.
A maj low on week of Nov 21st and then rally into Jan
Nov low will be a good swing long imo will be looking for dips to buy after that low is behind us.
Will post long term view next
