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US SPX 500

spx300it was last july when i first made a warning about what was to come, and the market rallied a bit higher than i originally expected, but ended up breaking down as hard as i had originally discussed. you can see that post over here: ---- a lot of people are extremely bearish right now, not just retail either, institutional traders are on the bear side as well. though, i have this feeling that the market will expand in time to eliminate a lot of the short positions before it makes the final plummet into the 3000 region. end of november \ beginning of december, i expect a top to be made, and it won't be until may 2023 where a bottom will be created, based on my primary calculation. ---- trade safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
1
SPX can extend to a higher high before the 21st or fail hardIts all about 4125-35, 4150-60 and 4202SPX now. All 3 are resistance levels! Support is at 4085-90 and 4025, below it we should see 3955SPX Im not sure about the exact pathway, so my game plan is to short 4145-60 and 4202 zone. If we breakout I will flip for a trip back to 4285-92 and even over 4300SPX Please note, that this can even extend to 4425 just to screw everyone out on both sides and then sell hard. So regardless of the situation, I will be short (if we make a new high) or long (if we make a higher low) on the 20-21st or before the FOMC. Ideally we spike up to 4125-35 and even 4145-60SPX tomorrow and sell off into Fri OPEX low. That low should produce a good setup for a few days rally before the FOMC decision on the 21st. One certain thing is that the Oct low should provide a good buy and hold setup going into EOY high. Ideally we make a new low in Oct and then higher low in Nov (before the Midterms) and then off we go together with Santa. Jan (in case of the above scenario) should mark the high and then we should see lows in Apr. Levels of importance tomorrow: - 4145 - 4160-62 Closing above those levels will get us back to 4195-4205SPX by Fri. Im going to short tomorrow's gap for the crap scenario. Ideally we hit 4125-35 or even 4145-60 in am and crap from there. Have a good night P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SP500 entering sell zone. 1:3 R:R sell tradeLast week I said that SP500 is drawing a nasty picture and although we can have a rebound from the recent ascending trend line, this will not change the longer-term bearish perspective. Indeed, we had this rebound and now the SP500 index is trading in a very strong sell zone that is set between 4100 and 4200. In my opinion, a reversal to the downside will follow from this zone and traders should look for selling opportunities. This outlook is intact as long as the price is under 4300 and bears can target the previous low for their sell short trades.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Mihai_Iacob
17
SPX possible pathway to min 3720 and ideal 3450!I want to present a very possible pathway in case MACD will make a hook like turn, which is very bearish! I saw this many times, when everyone is cheering bullish and looking for that golden cross and all they get is a the hook formation (zoomed in and outlined at the bottom of the chart) So far MACD is still way below 0, RSI is at 50 level and could make a lower high. We have touched 50% today and one more push to 4150 zone for 61.8 (see the retracement fibs on the chart) is what I would expect to hold for that MACD hook formation. - 4090 is the support now, - 4125-35, 4145 and 4160 resistance So stay alert, have stops if trading on the long side! BTW all the pink lines are the unfilled gaps P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX is very close to my first target outlined for a while nowI missed most of the day, Im waiting for my 4125-35 test to short and exit some longs I have running since last week (those were under the water at some point, now nicely in green) Want to see some pullback into the close and then spike up tomorrow to hit the target zone for a fakeout move. High tomorrow and low on the 16th, then we should rally to 4200 and even 4285-91SPX by or before 21st FOMC meeting 4085 is now support! This chart is from 6th of Sep P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 12 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 12 Week Last week's 3903 support provided fruitful long. We have an engulfing bullish weekly bar. Possibility of continued upward momentum, for long preference. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Long if 4010 / 4095 is supported 2) Short on trend channel rejection / rejection at 4095 / 4010 Weekly: Ave vol up bar (engulfing bullish) = strength Daily: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness H4: High vol bar + low vol UT bar = weakenss Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4204 4029 3903 3743 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
SPX gapped up, no Fri sell off repeate, main support is at 4025We didnt get a move down off am highs as I was hoping for, gap up above 4020-35 happen, so the move lower is off the table. Now 4025 and 4015 are 2 main supports to hold for next week to continue advance. 4085 is next target. This still can be a fakeout and if we close below am open, and especially below 4015SPX it will be bearish and I will be looking for 3925 to test early next week before push to higher levels. I got stopped on half short from overnight and holding the other half for the fakeout scenario. Will hedge at 4025 and 4015 level (will cut if we close below 4015) So far the pathway up is in play, I dont expect much lower till 4125-35 test and ideally 4200 P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX weekly closing day - Fri updateHi everyone! Im still battling with timing on the high and potential crash this/next month. We either bottom this month, we have interest rate decision on the 21st and then up into Oct 3rd week where the turn suppose to happen and last into EOM or even Nov. My timing showing a low in Oct/Nov. There is a chance for us to see 4425! but the lows we just had must hold, then that high will be early Oct. But there are several supper strong resistances to overtake: - 4085 - 4125-35 - 4308 - 4385SPX My fib calculation as well as previous calculations support this possible pathway, then the Oct/Nov low will be in 3240SPX zone!!! - There is also a 61.8 retracement at 3195SPX off 2020 Mar lows! - This move up will be a perfect C wave up of the bigger B wave in case we made A high in Aug (I have this pathway outlined in green count) My main count is still to hold 4125-35 and ideally stretch to 4200SPX before serious selling into EOM. - I have Panic month on Oct in SPX and Sep for the DOW. Interesting thing is SPX had a panic month on Sep as well, but cycles have moved it to Oct now. But I want to be open for a potential screw up of the bears and making the bulls believe we are on the pathway to ATHs (again). That alone will screw up so many! Ideally we make a higher monthly close in Sep and intraday high early Oct, then the cycles will match with the turn in Oct where we can have a huge sell into MidTerms. - Then we should rally into EOY to do a damage control and top out in Jan. Im still battling about Santa Rally as this year is completely different from others. - Also energy and food crisis in Europe might put a lot of pressure into the markets, unless there is a bigger war erupted and the European money will flow into the US. Which I do expect to happen next year or 2024... So lets talk about tomorrow, so I can go to sleep: Today's close was into the wall with last 10 min pump, that usually ends up in following day being red, at least first part of it. Also closed below intraday highs = not bullish. - Needs a gap up above 4020 (and ideally 4030) or we should see lower levels tomorrow. Im short into tomorrow from the close and some from AHs highs, half position. Last few weeks we dump big on Friday's, will it repeat tomorrow? My bet is yes. Tomorrow is a turning day! Ideally we see a higher low tomorrow and reverse hard into last hour or 2 of the day and never look back, that would setup a move for much higher next week Its VIX OPEX on Wed, triple witching week 200MA here on 4h chart is the ideal target for this move! - Or 4125-35 and ideal at 4200+ for the top of this move this month Tomorrow resistance is at: - first resistance 4020SPX - Main resistance to take 40350SPX - 4085SPX is the closing resistance for higher levels early next week The only real support I have now is low 3800 cluster, if we test 3885-3900 again it will slice it imo. So lets see if they can push it up and save the day before and at least the OPEX and the interest rate decision on the 21st. Have a good night! P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
S&P500 | May lose important support!Hello trader Today I prepared a new idea for you. Like and subscribe to the channel there is a lot of useful information✅ The culprit of yesterday's dump is yesterday's opening of the stock market, in my last analysis I noted the $3900 support zone My expectations were justified by the fact that at the opening we saw a continuation of the correction, which actually influenced the decline of bitcoin to $ 18,800 At the moment SPX500 is trading near the important support level of $3900-3880 if the asset loses this support, the next stop will be at $3850-3800 If we talk about bitcoin, with such a decrease, we will most likely see $18,000-17,500 again.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by DanilBlinkov
SPX Sunday email updateHere is my SPX update I sent out to those who are on my email list: Ideally we see lower open on Sunday and maybe Monday and then push higher into the cash open on Tuesday (we already got the first part), that would be bullish. Also, I wont rule out a move down to 3840-50ES on Monday and 12k NQ and reverse to open green on Tuesday, that would be very bullish imo. - NQ must hold 12055 and the ES 3915 and 3905 on any test (ideally it wont test it at all!) - Going below Fri, Thu lows will be very bearish and the bullish count will be buried. There is still a huge potential of a crash from the oversold conditions. But I hope the big boys will lift it up again into OPEX time and distribute and sell more before the big rug pull I'm expecting in Sep/Oct time. We have met my first target on the upside to the penny, straight into the circle I put early on the chart early July. - This is the chart (link below) from Jul 17th (just click the play button on the chart from your desktop or laptop). As you noticed I have not changed my main pathway even once! In fact I haven't changed my main market view since end of Nov of the 2021 (was one month early on the SPX when NDX did hit the high that month)! I still believe we are not going to 5500 like some others do for the whole year and hope I saved many accounts from being blown up on the long side. At least for those who listened to me in Dec/Jan. I will be wrong at some point on the bigger picture and will reevaluate when I see signs of the changes, otherwise its playing out well this year so far - The market do test both sides and it seems the high came earlier by less then 2 weeks. - My main goal is to figure the low area and the timing for the upcoming lows this fall, as I don't want to get trapped on the short side and wait for "one more low" before the Santa Rally (if we even going to have one this year). But Im expecting the next high to come in Jan and turn down to Apr final low of this first big Bear leg down (I call it the big A) On SPX simple chart, you can see that we are in the thinnest part of the cloud and usually its an easy breakdown/break up zone. We really have to hold that 3895-3910SPX zone for the markets to push higher from here. The main resistance for Tuesday is at 4025-30SPX! If we gap up above it, then the next resistance is at 4060 and 4080. 4015 will become the main support! I'm not sure if its doable to have a 100 points gap up on Monday, but it has to gap up above 3960SPX! - If the open will be flat its not bullish and it can sell again to make new lows into 3850 zone. I'm very skeptical of this price action, its very weird imo and there is something behind it, which can shake the markets hard, both directions, but mainly to the downside. All the surprises are to the downside now. My main target for this move up (if we have bottomed) is 4125-35SPX, that would be a very strong resistance to take. Above it, it can stretch back to 4250 and even 4285SPX. So again, SPX MUST take 4025 level and then hold 4015! Only then I will be looking for those higher levels I mentioned above. Enjoy rest of your long weekend!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
#SPX 5th Corrective Wave Continuation for #SP500 4 corrective waves succesfully done and now proceed to 5th wave. Probable targets are given on the chart. This was the most important part, the technical analysis . Neither global conditions (EU Energy crysis, war threats, inflation and covid rise), neither astrologic conditions (Jupiter retro will not leave 23 - 28th Oct) doesn' t allow a real bounce. And #dollar index $DXY is growing and EUR is weakening. It' s time be most careful. After the 5th wave dip, an ABC bounce is expected. Not financial advice. DYOR.
FRED:SP500Short
by naphyse
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 05 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 05 Week Last week's 4071 rejection + channel rejection provided fruitful short. Currently market is temporarily supported at 3903. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Long if 3903 is supported 2) Short on low vol retracement / rejection at 4080 / 4030 / 3903 Weekly: Higher vol down bar close off low, same spread as previous bar = demand coming in Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand H4: Ultra high vol bar + high vol up bar = demand coming in Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4204 4029 3903 3743 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
1