Temporary relief for S&P 500 Index?SPX500USD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 4083 (stop at 4018)
Daily signals for sentiment are at oversold extremes. A move lower faces tough support and we remain cautious on downside potential. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 4080 level. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
Our profit targets will be 4246 and 4280
Resistance: 4250 / 4500 / 4800
Support: 4080 / 3900 / 3500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
US SPX 500
21-AUG - BTC in stagflation and global recessionIf you just take into consideration, that so far entire #cryptocurrencies #ecosystem grew up in global #hossa and that #hossa has ended and #global #market is going into #recession, what could this mean to e.g. #BTCUSD ?
During each previous recession (dotcom bubble in 2001, global recession in 2008, etc.) #SPX500 fell down >50%.
We should take into consideration, that #Bitcoin had so far only positive market conditions and previous #BTC #cycles just were the #elliotwave in #uptrend and we shall enter corrective Elliot wave.
#SPX500 could fall again >50% that would crash #Bitcoin heavily.
It's not investment recommendation !!
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 22 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 22 Week
Previous supply returned for short opportunity.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Long if 4704 is supported
2) Short on low vol retracement / channel
support becomes resistance
Weekly: Ave vol down bar = minor strength
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor weakness
H4: High vol down bar close off low = some demand
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4368 4303 4204
4071 3950
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Bearish head and shoulders on SPX500USDSPX500USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4274 (stop at 4322)
A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming. This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Resistance is located at 4280 and should cap gains to this area.
Our profit targets will be 4161 and 4120
Resistance: 4280 / 4625 / 4800
Support: 4160 / 3900 / 3700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
SPX500USD Is Bearish! Sell!
Hello,Friends!
Indecision in the market is changing
Towards a well defined bearish sentiment
And the price action on the lower timeframes
Is clearly supporting this narratve
Therefore, I think it is a goodidea to go short!
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down tomorrow.
Again has to gap down below 4255-57SPX to mark the top being in place (reference to March topping pattern)
If we gap down to 4189-4207SPX (the bottom of the channel) and hold it early from the open, then I will go long for a move up into the close.
If this is what will play out, then we should re-test 4308.50-23 on Monday with a gap up and crap.
So must watch number for tomorrow is 4189-4207. Must gap down below 4255 to have this setup more probable!
Some good setups are coming, just need to be patient.
Maj resistance is at 4308.5SPX on closing level.
Don't underestimate the bulls - SPX higher firstWe are in a bear market, and the upwards corrections are often very aggressive. We have seen massive up move from 3750ish towards 4100, showing exactly that.
We see market taking a breath now, but earlier SPX broke out of the falling channel and - as indicated by the green boxes - buyers are in control and they aren't tired yet.
RSI is clearly trending up but not in the strong overbought area yet.
Looking at the chart we can see the falling trendline coinciding nicely with the 200 daily SMA, which is a perfect target where bulls might show exhausted, we reach overbought RSI, and hit double resistance(sma and trendline). This is also close to the 0.618 fib level.
I am definitely bearish in the longer term but I am convinced we will push a bit higher up before we go down. The fact that we have horizontal resistances around 4150 from the highs end may/ early june, is just not enough to sell now.
We are at levels where I would not per se buy, but it's definitely NOT the area to sell.
SPX needs a Gap Down below 4255-57 tomorrow...Quick update.
The price needs to gap down tomorrow below 4255-57 to confirm the top being in place.
Usually this type of the move trap bulls for long, so as long as we gap down hard tomorrow, I can mark the top being in.
There is still a room to squeeze to 4330-34, but Im not really playing it unless I see a good setup.
If we gap up tomorrow, will have to revisit my charts.
Tomorrow should continue today's day, we had a reversal to downside and if this is real we should see a low on the 22nd-23rd, small bounce 23-24th and last low or higher low on the 25-26th
24th is a panic cycle day! Mark it on your calendar
Numbers to watch tomorrow:
- Maj resistance is the same - 4308.50 (on closing level)
- First main support is at 4255-57
- 4220 and next is at 4175
- Ideal target of this move is at 4125-46
Ideally we should see something similar of a move from EOM Mar high. You can revisit a gap down below 4520, which was retested and never seen since after.
Tomorrow's move should be a start of the first move down, fits with cycle lows into 22-23rd or 25-26th, then a rally into Labour Day high/lower high.
The week of Sep 5th is a panic cycle week, so a gap down from there is expected to trap all the bulls, especially after staying long over the long weekend.
Have a good night
S&P500-SPX500If the price breaks the trend on H2 according to my idea and then the price has a correction, then by rechecking the chart you can decide to trade.
Observe the money management and the stop loss, to know about Analysis, follow me And contact me if you have any comments or questions. (I will answer whenever I have time).
Wait for the update.
S&P500-SPX500The price breaks the trend on M30 according to my idea and then the price has a correction, then by rechecking the chart you can decide to trade.
Observe the money management and the stop loss, to know about Analysis, follow me And contact me if you have any comments or questions. (I will answer whenever I have time).
Wait for the update.
SPX Aug 17th updateExpected a high being hit today, we got it. Expected a close below 4308.5SPX, we got it. Expected a red close, got it only on NASDAQ and Small Caps.
As long as we stay below 4340SPX we should see lower is my next expectation.
VIX (see my update earlier) has a clear ISH pattern.
Main support is 4177SPX
Tomorrow must watch numbers are
- 4285 and especially 75, failure of holding the last number can be a good sign of the local top, need much lower to mark the maj top!
- Resistance is the same 4308.50 on the closing level.
- Upper target zone is around 4330-34SPX in case it wants to tag it, Im not playing it and will be looking for a short setup instead.
I expect this to dive down to 4150+- SPX zone by the 24th-26th and one more push to lower low /double top, or if broken above - 4425+ sometime early Sep.
Not favouring the second scenario, but can be a case for the larger B wave top in Jan.
Im not in the camp of new ATH's and the lows being in, I dont change my count to fit the price or put many counts to be right regardless.
If Im wrong at some point (everyone makes mistakes), I will admit and only then change my view. We are not even close to have that view changed at this point.
Also want to bring the attention to Sep and hope many will make a note of this warning - there is a chance we could crash that month and my charts do reflect that.
Will it be serious or not as much, I have no idea, but I see some serious signs of something happening that month.
You have been warned.
Have a good night
30 days of chop.my main target of 4300 has been hit.
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exactly 30 days from today, a majority of all of the puts in this market will expire worthless.
there is tens of millions of far otm contracts across the board.
majority of the stonk market is apparently short 👀.
majority of the market also tends to be wrong, every single time.
maybe this time is different, but something tells me it's not.
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i'm theorizing the market will chop sideways for 30 straight days, to make sure all of those contracts expire worthless.
maybe it puts in another leg up after (if this turns out to be a phase of re-accumulation),
maybe it completely falls off a cliff after this ugly chop (if this turns out to be a phase of distribution),
but whatever happens - i think it will happen in exactly 30 days from today.
if you're on the short side, ponder upon what i'm saying here.
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SPX hit 4308.50 target!Ideal target has been met!
Watch to close below 4308.50, ideally we close red, tomorrow will be a bigger sell off with the bounce on the 18th.
The target zone is at 4300-33, it can stretch into 20s, I will short it there, or short if we close below 4308.50
Timing should be right as per my last night update.
I will post a zoomed out chart after the close with the expected pathway into Oct low.
One thing to mention is I wont be holding any longs after end of this month!
Sep can produce a good crash, you've been warned!
SPX, time for a trend decision. Up or down? SPX coming to the top resistance where it previously got rejected (2x).
Also looking at a similar fractal, as well as de MACD showing similar movement.
Price is either gonna go bullish here and breakout, or we're gonna see a big downwards move..
What do you think?
Daily analysis and day trading setups on SPX SPX500USD 20220816This is the first daily analysis and day trading plan for SPX. I am already publishing NASDAQ & DAX daily trading plans here >>
NASDAQ
DAX
Line in the sand for SPX is 4280 but 4300 is too close so it is more like a zone of 20 points which is quite evident. The hourly bull flag is still in tact as long as Demand Zone 1 holds.
Macro US Building Permits, Housing Starts, CAD CPI
Buy
Break: 4295, 4313, 4327, 4347
Reversal: 4279, 4262, 4253, 4240, 4216
Sell
Break: 4281, 4285, 4254, 4243
Reversal: 4316, 4330, 4350, 4374
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
SPX gap fill is at 4300.16, maj resisatcne is at 4308.50Its a turning day tomorrow, the 16th, expect it to be an intraday or a closing high.
Super close to the Gap Fill at 4300.16 and my main target/resisatnce at 4308.50. Had that number since Jun, didnt expect it to get hit mid of Aug but EOM or first days of Sep.
Timing for the low is on Aug 26th and I expect 4010-30 to hold! Might get to 4050-60SPX only, will calculate target when I see that we topped. 4200 will have to be lost at min, today this number could rise.
This Fri Max Pain is at 405 SPY, something to watch!
So I was thinking if we see a low on the 26th, then there is a high chance we stretch into the Sep OPEX for bear max pain and suck every bull in at 4425-35SPX. That was my ideal target before we saw lower in June, now its secondary target.
three fitygood morning,
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got 3 paths from this current pivot.
4300 is the key.
close a daily above and it opens a door to 4460 ~ 4600 - which would be the ultimate bear squeeze.
fail to close above, and a door is opened to create a new low, most likely at 3500\3400.
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mainstream media thinks we're back in a bull market, which is why i am bearish.
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