S&P500 - Bullish opportunites ahead! - Long in flight Last weeks levels provided to be partly actionable and price has immediately responded (See attached post). Comfortable holding this 50% long position with stop/target untouched. Will be looking for opportunities to buy the other 50% and increase risk as I'm confident in the bullish sentiment after last weeks Feds statement. I hold an underlying belief that the FED does actually have a decent pulse on the economy that drives the stock market - obviously not the "real" economy but an important one no less. I'm personally very bullish 2024 on nearly all assets.
So lets unpack the chart -
Daily chat shows a "comfortable" pullback. One very similar to Nov. 2024. Evidence on the RSI suggests we are positioned for months of bullish room to run ahead. So I'm interested in getting long at least back to comfortable new highs.
2 hour chart shows our first aggressive entry hit and the second entry came within .30% of getting filled. Although I would have loved the second to get filled, It's a non-factor. Thankfully price has strongly verified our bullish identification of these price levels and the overall theory.
Although the stop of the aggressive was close to the conservative entry - it was separated by several key levels and strategically placed. I've got a good idea of where things are going and the opportunities on the way are endless. The rest is risk management
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Best,
GrayTrader
US SPX 500
S&P500 ForecastS&P500 Currently, there is a bearish trend projected to reach 5190 from the pivot point at 5225. However, if it breaks above 5245, confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level, it could potentially target higher levels at 5261 and 5280.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5225
Bullish Lines: 5245, 5261, 5280
Bearish Lines: 5190, 5168, 5150, 5099
SP500 Mid term planOur friend Fibonacci is showing up a possible next move for SPX. Actually is ranging exactly on the 1.618 level of the last leg, and usually this level to a retrace till the level 1. There we could probably see a reversal that could lead the price into the resistance area at 5250, but it's probably too early for that
SPX500USD Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 5188.9.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 5282.3 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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SP500 in the hammer zoneSP500 reached a strong reversal area where price reacted in the previous week. I was expecting a little pump in my previous ideas, and honestly i wasn't expecting it to rise so much. But i am holding my short trades and i am adding more here, consider i expect a selloff this month. First target the support zone at 4990
SPX500USD - Bullish Momentum UnderwaySPX500USD has been undergoing some bullish momentum over the last few days. This may lead to a potential push to the $5350 region over the next few days. Further movement will take time to tell; but overall it’s currently looking good.
All 4 of our Core YinYang Oscillators and exhibiting Bullish Momentum; however since there is such low Volume, it’s hard to say how strong this momentum will be. Nonetheless prepare yourself for a potential movement upwards in the short term.
S&P500 Valuation In Current Economic EnvirontmentHello everyone,
as title says, today I would like to speak about the S&P500 and its market valuation in the current economic environment.
Since I prefer to study and analyze markets on higher time frames rather than day-to-day, this Case Study is based on quarter outlook (3M chart), to capture most of the available information using metrics that have significant inputs and outputs on the economy e.g. Interest Rates, Employment Rates, company Bankcruptcies & others.
I decided to make this Case Study since I believe we may be on the verge of facing difficulties on micro and macro levels, which in history led into a downturn of equity markets for a prolonged period of time.
It may be argued that some of these Cases are not relevant since they don't include full data, and that would be fair. But at the same time, I would point out that these data and used Cases are the most relevant to this day, because of their similarities to today's economic environment even if not in a full manner.
For better understanding, you need to take a look at Pic1.
(Pic1.:S&P500 chart with color legend)
-Captured time windows consist of the US Unemployment rate moving from relatively low levels to higher values in times when Interest Rates are relatively High. To make a better educated guess I included US bankcrupcies as an overall business health indicator.
-Inflation Rate or Federal Reserve Balance could be used additionally.
Historically, I would argue that the most similar to this day looks Case Nr.4
In both, we have:
a, rallied to ATH in unfavorable market conditions (3to4, 5to6?)
b, unemployment rate curving up from the bottom
c, bankcruptcies curving up from the bottom
d, interest rates are high (and cuts are around horizont)
Why is that important?
Because as Pic2. shows:
(Pic2.:S&P500 drawdown from top)
-In all of these cases market bled and did not start turning around BEFORE FED found the bottom rate.
And they have not even started cutting yet..
That in my view is a huge red flag and it brings attention to "Not IF we are about to go lower, but WHEN we are about to start going lower."
It may be a month, two or three... but if we take a look at what the chart and those economic metrics suggest, it's most likely will not be a pretty ride until all of those are resolved in favorable manner for markets, which may take year or longer as historical cases shown..
Unless they decide to print NEW TRILLION$$$
Hopefully, this case study was helpful for some of you in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me.
Also, if you are interested in more updates or you would like to receive personal analysis with lower time frame updates daily, let me know in the comments or DM.
Best Regards,
Joe
SPX500USD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5078.5.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 4997.7 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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🧑🎓 XAU/USD ANALYSE 📈 UPDATED MORE READ THE CAPTION?By Wolrd Forex Traders Hello 👋
"G old Market Analysis 💡📊👀
4H Time Frame Chart 📉🕒
_Bearish Signal ⚠️👎_
We're seeing a potential short opportunity in the Gold market, with a current price of 2354. Our target is 2300, which is a key support level. A breakout below this level could lead to a significant price decrease 📉💸!
_Analysis 🤔📊_
The 4H time frame chart shows a bearish trend, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also indicating a bearish signal, with a reading of . The Moving Averages are aligned, providing additional confirmation for a short position 💪📉.
_Trade Strategy 💰📉_
Sell: 2354 (short)
Target: 2300 (next support level)
Stop Loss: 2380 (bearish warning) ⚠️🚨
If the breakout occurs at 2300, the next target is 2270.
Note: This analysis is based on a 4H time frame chart and is subject to market changes and fluctuations. Always use proper risk management techniques and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.
Follow me for more market insights and analysis! #Gold #XAUUSD #tradingview #bearish #marketanalysis #trading #finance #investing"
SPX500USD Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 5110.2.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5146.0 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P500(US500):🔴Is it Bearish...?!🔴(Details on caption)By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position.
In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR).
In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this sell-side is not purging I don't think about buy position.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️15/04/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well.
Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future.
Illustration 1.02
The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation.
Illustration 1.03
The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling)
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US30 HEAD AND SHOULER??Simple trading - Head and shoulders
Us30 has broken the neck-line of the Head and shoulder pattern on the 4hr. US30 is bullish on the higher time frames so always be ready for a pullback to the upside. Looking at the daily chart to see if the price will retest previous support and turn resistance.
Due to the lack of bullish momentum on the smaller timeframes, I would NOT advise taking a buy trade to previous support as the market is making lower highs and lower lows. This clearly indicates that the bears are in control. At any moment the price could drop and you do not want to be caught in that.
Be patient and wait for the price to play out. Look to take a sell positions
in the short term at respectable levels