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SPX 2020 Prediction, to start the year off weak! Then 3400?We just ended a decade and a wild ride for 2019 having risen nearly 30%. From here many investors and traders may assume that there will be a strong move lower because prices can't go up forever. Normally, however, after such a strong gain, markets have the tendency to continue to rise the following year. That doesn't mean we can't see a pullback and that is what we expect at the beginning of 2020. After having risen so much in the last two months, green week after green week volume started to thin out at the top as the big-money left for the holidays. Meaning there could be profit-taking come January. What happened in 2019? -The Fed Cut rates 3 times, providing cheaper borrowing so big money took advantage of it and flooded the markets -The Fed implemented a secret QE4, pumping USD into the economy -The Trade deal has had great progression, looking to sign Phase 1 (To be signed of January 15th) -Stock buybacks over $700B which caused artificial valuation of equities So what do we expect in 2020? A slight pullback to start the year from profit-taking, we just hit a 1.5 Fib expansion level where price failed the first time recently. The expected pullback before the continued move is the previous broken high at first at 3155 which is about 2.95% of a pullback. The ultimate level we're watching for is the 3100-3105 where the impulse for the move higher had begun, that is a 4.3-4.4% pullback from the current price. From there price has the opportunity to make a move up to 3350-3400. However the drop has to be on low volume if traders are to be excited about the upside. This idea is for educational purposes only, this does not constitute trading or investment advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for any market activity.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TRADEPROAcademy
1
Bond yields rising, divergence shows a slight 2020 SPX pullbackThe S&P 500 has been on a tear in 2019, rising nearly 30%, from low of the year to high it has surpassed the 30% growth mark. However, there has been a prevalent divergence between bond yields in the US and the SPX, which are correlated to move the same way. This means there could be a convergence in the near future to get back to the "regular" pattern. Over the past few months bond yields have been climbing slightly, but year to date there has been a 23% drop in the 30 year and 31% drop in the 10 year. About the same amount as the S&P has risen. Those bond yields have risen about 15% since September while the S&P 500 has risen exponentially. This means we are expecting a pullback in the S&P 500 since the bond yields have started to do their part and slowly rise. We are not expecting a 30% gain in bond yields, not a 30% drop in the S&P 500 but a moderate move to regularity. Based on the monthly, the S&P 500 could pullback 9.5% to the 2926 level where the impulse for the move higher happened. The volume is extremely weak on all time highs which is another indicator. From there the upside potential is 3500+ based on a Fib extension. If the S&P 500 pulls back we do expect another rise of 15+% ideally in bond yields. This can be contributed to eased tensions between China and the US and a hold on rate cuts from the US Fed.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by TRADEPROAcademy
1
SPX Breaking record for broken recordsI thought I’d include a little oped and some political analysis seeing as how that is part of my expertise & biggest passions. This publication was intended to be made at the start of the market open but I got wrapped up in this circus called life; C’est La Vie. The SPX 500 index is shattering all analysts expectations as Trump did say we would ”Win BIGLY!...winning so often that we‘d get tired of winning!” , and in doing so while both hands tied behind his back is a PHENOMENAL (and truly ironic; in the sense that they want to impeach him.) ahead of the systemic breakdown of the deep state. I truly detest that conspiratorial connotations attached to that entity, what else do you call a cabal of unelected officials (mostly Obama holdovers) in the highest levels and upper echelons or our government literally conspiring with the legacy media in cahoots with big tech and the propaganda engine that is: Jeff squared (Zucker/Bezos) & lets not forget to give a shoutout to Media Matters Tom Steyer for letting their hatred of one New York businessman/real estate tycoon be substantially greater than their love or our constitutional democratic republic— -as the slow moving coup commences to unseat a duly elected official , WallSt once again slaps Adam “Schifty” Schiff & Nancy “Powerless” Pelosi right across the race with the metaphorical equivalent of political chess mate with milestone after historic achievement after milestone after historic achievement.. •.Kim summit • Energy sufficiency • >2 Dozen NASDAQ ATHs • ROARING economy in an otherwise unsettled and anxious; polarized social environment despite 401(K)s and wage growth • Not to mention historic unemployment and • Only President to fulfill every campaign promise in modern history.. • Defeated caliphate and Baghdadi The list could go on... I’ll include a more in depth, meticulously written oped when I get on my PC (yes I’m on my mobile phone right now) including and especially pertaining to the modern history from the start of the postmodern era and why it is quintessential for traders to understand modern history (From post World War II era 1945 is a solid place to start) and how it is literally The combination of the series of events that took place Between 1939 to 1945 where America was ranked 17 out of 17 in terms of military my versus just six short years later leaving 2 empires and Europe in ashes as the Phoenix and Not only military but economic powerhouse has been us ever since, a fact l I think is often overlooked/undermined (our economic leadership and not just military) Now with an unstoppable economic track record; SPX is clearly flourishing. When all is said and done history will remember President Trump has all of the most consequential POTUS in history...believe me I was never a fan (at first) however I am a patriotic objective and pragmatic individual (unlike our elected officials) and when I see something that is good for the nation, regardless of the uncalibrated moral compass of the POTUS in question — he is still our commander-in-chief and it’s funny because i travel very frequently and often hear dnc hacksn in the legacy media say that the world is laughing at us because of his behavior; from my experience this is a falsehood.... Most of the people that I talk to would wish they had a president as fervently dedicated to putting nationalistic policy agendas in motion—- “ America First” and their nations respect his unapologetic, magnanimous persona.... but I digress. I will update more later... In the meantime I will proceed with more signals! I have been slacking as of late and for that I am double sorry. Follow / like / share / subscribe if you want to hear more from me about Political science and consumer based sociology, modern history and current events. @a1mTarabichi I apologize for the almost 4 H late publication!! You know what they say... Better late than never but never late is better..
SP:SPX
by a1mtarabichi
SPX500 - Entering Consolidation PeriodThe blue lines (solid and dotted) represent areas where I expect the price to go up/down to. They are the support and resist. The green circle represents a period of time where I think the consolidation will come to an end. The way current conditions are, the consolidation period will come to an end between February 2020 and October 2021. We could then see a crash or break-out. The move up or down, when we come out of consolidation, might be slow as well. This is not financial advice. I will keep updating this graph every so often as conditions change.
SP:SPX
by HeliosGamma
1
SPX a look from the clouds (Heffae Clouds)I've been racking my brain trying to get a feel for these indices after their panic dump mid-late Friday and decided to pull up an old favorite indicator to see what it was saying. Snow City has put a ton of work into this indicator and has the aesthetics looking absolutely gorgeous in its current incarnation. It happens to absolutely nail some important support and resistance levels as well. If you want a more advanced version of Ichimoku this is the toy to use. Also check out his Quant RSI which is a candle-ized version of RSI and provides some really cool signals if you know your candles. And no, i'm not a paid shill, just know the guy and appreciate the work he's put in. check it out
OANDA:SPX500USD
by jthrasher
S&P 500 dead cat bounce and collision to 2400 points and lowerWhen talking about S&P 500 as per graph logg we could make conclusion that this was "dead cat bounce. Daily MACD confirms further bearish momentum. RSI turning against. Further fall is imminent to 2400 points. Important thing to say which is subjective opinion, but previous results add weight to expertise: * S&P500 suggested retracement at the Ocotber 2015 and on Janury/February 2016 being worth 1867 points. That was mathematically justified peak of S&P price index. Instead, we had " push" to 2.700 points. Presumably because Bezos bought Washington post 2013 while calling for buy of his shares. In practical terms after posting on twitter 15.th of November TA about S&P and NDAQ collision, people were in denial. However, index value fell from 2723 points bellow 2400 points making 11,5% fall X 24 trillion USD=2676 billion USD loss achieved on SPX from 15.th of November to end of December. Value of previous drop on SPX surpasses GDP of Germany, France, Italy or Russia. Now, we have pretty much same situation. After " dead cat bounce" i am expecting confirmation of 2400 level, therefore i would short it from this position with very narrow s/l placed. S&P 500 peaked by any parameter. Stochastic RSI turning against (peaked already) whether daily/weekly basis. MACD implies for weekly bullish crossover which might cause some kind of pump (therefore S/L is placed very near to 2720 index value). Having on mind that even current S&P500 index value is actually gifted price for uneducated, i would recommend every shareholder to clear his position in order to avoid buying on " right shoulder" SPX will continue to make lower highs (probably this one which will retrace back to 2400) points making 2500 billion US dollar loss and right after new lower high and further collision which could actually trigger massive selloff and price dumping whether we are talking about SPX, NDAQ or DJI. S&P500 index has no healthy grounds for this index value and further fall is imminent all the way down to 1867 points which is 33% additional fall in Index points. Money which is used for pumping index over " mathematically justified price peak=1867" points could now cause yo yo effect and cause massive reversal and selloff. As long banks or big holders are willing to pump price, it will be so, but, as time passes, it becomes more and more expensive to maintain artificial price as this one. Gold and silver are the only safe storage of value. Everything else will collide. Good luck to everyone.
SP:SPXShort
by milanjelic
57