S&P 500’s (SPX) Elliott wave analysis: 4 hr tf analysisPrice action for the S&P 500 from January 29, 2018 till present date has been captured in this analysis using a contracting triangle Elliott wave structure. The implication of this structure for the S&P 500 is that price should resume its bullish trend once a breakout occurs out of the triangle. Breakout point as used in this analysis is ~ $2718.51
The post thrust measurement (target area) for the bullish interpretation can be calculated by measuring the width of the triangle and projecting it on top of the breakout point.
The width in this case is 2863.99 – 2533.29 = 330.70
A vertical projection of the width above the breakout point means that the S&P 500 should target ~ $3,049.21 (330.70 + 2718.51 = $3,049.21).
The point of invalidation (POI) of this analysis is a price close below ~ 2542.92 at which point the wave E would have overlapped wave C, which is unacceptable for a contracting triangle.
Spxanalysis
SPX - Half Way ThereThis is a re-post of a chart from one month ago after the dow dropped 700 points in one day. My extrapolation from that post compared this to 1987, in which there was a 2 year run up, and then a quick crash which erased 1 years worth of gains.
While this 2018 crash appears to be slower in time than 1987's two month crash period, the charts nonetheless look the same to me. If we extrapolate, then SPX's current price has only reached half way to where it will eventually bottom out, which should be around 2380.
SPX - Tonight We're Going To Party Like It's 1987?Looking at the monthly logarithmic chart of the S&P 500, this chart reflects what would happen if we had a repeat of 1987. Heading up to October 1987, there was a straight line run up of approximately 2 years, then a crash to the 0.5 Fib line quickly in 2 months, where the crash erased the gains of the prior 12 months.
If we extrapolate the same scenario for the S&P 500 for 2018, there was also a straight line run up for approximately 2 years, and if the S&P 500 retraces to its 0.5 Fib line, it would hit 2380 in approximately 2 months, which would also erase roughly 12 months worth of gains from Feb 2017 to Feb 2018.
HIDDEN BULL 2h dvg could bring higher SPX.StoppLoss 2374.... weakness under that level, could be a bad sign. Will do another rethink of the bull/bear situation then, maybe with some updates here....
Will Ichimoku cloud support SPX at this price too ? Pivot 2384 could be some resistance....?
Nothing is obvious in this situation, but I put the Hidden Bull dvg to do its job untill bear take over.