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Spxanalysis

SPX is in mid range decision pointHappy Sunday everyone Here is a 4h chart. We are getting close to the breakout point, has to hold at that upper trendline Main resistance is at 3775SPX, dont rule out a fakeout into 3800 to finish up C wave up. - If breakout happens, will be watching for the test of the breakout trenline from the bottom and if broken out from the top. - Will do a long trade on the test with a tight stop (if breakout happens) - 3800-20SPX will be a very important level to watch or 3798SPX on closing level (bull/bear closing number) - above 3820SPX we will see 3910-25SPX Few things to mention: - TRIN is at .69 on Fri close (can mark a top or within 2 days) - VIX at support - All main moving averages are pointing down - Bull flag broken to the upside on Fri (something to pay attention to!) - Right shoulder is getting close to invalidate, watching Will be watching 3800 and 3645 SPX levels this coming week. We have a directional change tomorrow as well as following Tuesday. My thinking we will turn down hard on Monday and bottom on Tuesday fulfilling cycle low on the 24th Then rally into the 27th high and down again into EOM or 2-4th of Nov Will be looking a rally after the Midterms, which will be short lived. A maj low on week of Nov 21st and then rally into Jan Nov low will be a good swing long imo will be looking for dips to buy after that low is behind us. Will post long term view next
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10
Chop Chop continues. Its Friday - Dont Overtrade!No follow through today, really in a no mans land. A bull flag is a worry for the bears and the H&S (which is quite big) is a worry for the bulls. Peak your side:) Wont rule out a move to 3770-80SPX to have everyone believe that we have broken the bull flag to the upside, then we finally reverse and re-visit Oct 2nd low at min Im seating out and waiting for a right setup to come as well as holding my swing short. Dont want to miss the bus when the things starts moving. Its Friday, DO NOT OVER-TRADE! Keep your weekly gains, dont give those back!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
SPX is in decision modeIm always honest with my homework, I dont like to have several counts to be always right. At this point Im seeing both scenarios: 1 - We break the orange trendline and we are off the races to 3900-4000 (not preferred) 2 - We break 3500 or Oct 2nd low, we see 3380-3410 at min! I'm in lower lows camp, as you know. But the window for the strong move down to start is just almost out, has to start tomorrow! - The bull flag noted on the chart cant be unnoticeable! If it breaks, that's it for lower levels until Midterms! - On the bear side, we have perfect H&S as well as the price being so weak and bounces being so muted, its ready for the crash to start, it just needs a little help to push the markets off the cliff! Will we have that catalysis? I bet yes, the question is when! Will repeat again, November is a panic month. Can be an avalanche of events! War, elections, bonds going off the roof, all the economic issues around the globe. My conclusion here is this: - Im net short, I will flip if we get above that trendline shown on the chart and enter on re test. I dont want to do it as it will cost me in stop losses - Im not adding to short till we break 3500 or Oct 2nd lows! - If we break, we will see 3380-3410 and then should have a good bounce to 3500, then it will be another perfect show for a move down to at least 3200-10! Have a good night everyone! P.S. Please press that rocket button below, push this chart up for others to see. Also feel free to share my charts with anyone, lets get 1k followers, means my work is important for others to see.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX broke down, nothing changed since amHi everyone, I slept in today and did few things around house, needed some time off the screen. Yesterday wasnt a good day for me, I had some losses with stops, its not an easy market to trade, too wide stops get triggered as well. Im doing swing trades now only till the first extreme hits. So far its short the rip game and Im looking for the first test of 3650SPX Targets to hit are on the chart - 3640 - 3580 - and then new lows! Im still expecting down move to new lows, crash scenario is off the table. At least that is not what Im warred about. BUT I still expect 3212 within a month time frame and ideally 28 handle (super ideal is 24 handle:) Shoot me questions, Im on my computer now! Will post other charts next. VIX to hit $60+ imo and that could be my 28 or 24 handle
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . US September Building Permits came in 1.4% higher than in August while Housing Starts registered 8.1% lower , following a recent trend of builders making more plans to build but being unable to start. Several factors contributing to this include average 30yr Fixed Mortgages going above 7%, more supply chain interruptions delaying building material/parts arrivals and inflated prices that are increasing the cost of new builds. Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Gold, Agriculture, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CNYUSD, JPYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and the VIX are all up. The 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate is now 2.9% compared to 2.8% on 10/14 . Putin has announced Martial Law in all four of the Ukrainian territories he "annexed" a few weeks ago . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending down at $3685 after forming a peak just below the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3760, the next support (minor) is at $3658. Volume is currently Low (high) and on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3495, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 45 after forming a peak at 48.5 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~42 as support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 95 as it approaches a retest of max top. MACD remains bullish and is beginning to form a soft peak at -62, it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance at -76 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 30 as Price is beginning to fall, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3770 as resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely formally retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $3700.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Triangle broken to the downside, casious of VIX OPEX flowEven if the triangle is broken down, it still can spike up into tomorrow. watching 3680-83SPX. Im holding my swing short, will add if we see higher levels today. Quick ins and outs Main resistance is at 3798SPX, Support is not even close at 3565-70SPX and below, they are minor, weak. I think we will have a range bound day into tomorrow, cautious on both sides, even if I lean towards buying the dips today This bear market rally is weak and every one of them is getting weaker and weaker. There was no pain on the market, no heavy selling, no one is calling to their broker to sell their position as they all being told this was the low! Its coming though...
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX can be at the begging of a very stip downtrend channelSmall disclaimer: - Im not calling for a crash, but expressing a high chance (in my personal opinion based on my own homework) scenario to play out within a month time frame! - When we are out of the crash window, I will reduce this possibility to bare minimum! For this scenario to play-out (not a trading advice, just a possibility), we need a daily close below 3450-55SPX, then its in a clear fall. - Invalidation point is a move above 3840-50SPX on closing basis. Then the whole pathway is a trash Perfect first cycle low early Nov, if not last day(s) of Oct and main cycle low for this year is on week 21st of Nov (+2 or -1 day). Supports are on the chart, again if it starts falling (which I think we will) soon. First big low should come on the 24th of Oct imo. Moon cycle crash window is from 20-24th. If it misses, then no crash and maybe we just bottom at 34 handle or 32 handle (my ideal target all year) max. Please keep in mind, that this is not my main pathway till 3450-55SPX is broken on daily level, must close below it, better for 2 days straight. I will be updating support levels on the go (if this plays out), but main support levels (lines) are on the chart. Will be updating more in this thread tomorrow with smaller timeframe charts
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX EOW Close ChartWell its a very bad close imo. Bullz have only one chance to hold todays close in B wave down and rally up to 3800 even! But if it instead (higher odds imo) we crash from the open, then my pathway will be - Down to 3400 - Bounce to 3500 - Down to my 3212 (better hold it) If 32 handle wont hold, we will see 2855SPX by 24th! Be ready! Im sure majority is not ready for this type of scenario! Also I think we bottom EOM or early Nov, how low only the GOD knows! Im short lots of SPY puts but will do ES and NQ short on Sunday after I see the opening reaction of the futures. Have a great weekend
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
45
SPX 2 pathways, all the same resultMorning everyone, I sleep in today and missed am short, sold my puts from yesterday at 3620ES zone though, re entering those now again. The price hit my 3720-30 (as per my yesterday's update) zone in am, was an amazing short and I missed it! I see 2 possible pathways: - first is the price is working on the right shoulder and will push much lower next week. My ideal pathway - second is the touch of the upper channel of the trend channel ABC black line. If second, we should touch 3600 and hold, then push for the final move to hit 3815-20SPX Its Friday, do not over trade, let the trade come to you and then press! Im swing short into EOM!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
31
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% BTC, 48% Cash. * SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . US September CPI came in 0.4% higher than in August compared to a 0.1% increase from July to August , and CPI without Food + Energy came in 0.6% higher, signifying that the decrease in fuel prices wasn't enough to slow inflation. This leaves the Federal Reserve in a comfortable position to raise another 75bps or more on November 2nd. Markets initially dumped on this news but have since rallied with Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Energy, Agriculture, US Treasuries, EURUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD all now up on the day; DXY, VIX, JPYUSD and Gold are down. Very 2022, and very "short squeeze" vibes. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15; US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19.* Price is currently trending up at $3685 and is testing $3658 minor resistance after bouncing off of $3517 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to end a 5 day streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3785, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 44 as it retests the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~42 after bouncing just above the uptrend line from August 2015 at 35. Stochastic crossed over bullish today and is currently trending up at 58 as it bounces off of 48 support. MACD reverted to a bullish crossover today and is currently trending up at -83 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from March 2020 at -76 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price shot up today, because this is an extremely volatile surge this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to reestablish support at $3658 minor resistance then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3600 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3600.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX is at Very Very Very Dangerous zone!Hi everyone, Im on vacation from Sunday to next Sunday, but I will be trading and will be still posting updates. I dont want to call for a crash here, chances for it are super slim. Any trade must be protected with a stop and only you as a trader can make the decisions on what to do with the information you're getting. Must do is your own homework! Again do not mortgage your house and go all in as this can be a very well one big bear trap! Im looking for that final move to be over by end of Oct or early Nov regardless. (updated about this last week Thursday or so) My target zone is 34 handle by the time window outlined above with ideal target being 32 handle. Below it, the markets are in real troubles! Can it be a crash, I don't know, I'm too far out to predict such things. Here is my quick but important update: - I wont rule out another low on Monday am and in fact I will be shorting on Sunday if we get a bounce. - That low can be lower 52 week low or just 3610SPX test Levels of importance - 3640.50 (again) - 3610, below this level comes - 3550-40 - 3511 - 3480-85 all SPX Resistance is at 3735-45; 3775-85 Here is my 1h chart On this chart I have outlined support levels, when/if broken you know whats coming next! IF we get a strong rally into Wed, I will not be holding longs at all, line none! I will only do options (puts) on what Im ready to loose. So here is a clue to how low this can fall in a very short time: - check the fibs from the low of 2009 to the high this Jan, check where is 78.6% retracement is
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
32
SPX pivot points!Check out how the daily Pivots aligning!!! I expect S2 to hit if it break this week! - 3228SPX, my target was 3212, close enough Ideally we hit S3 on this one! - is at low 2800!!! Perfect storm is getting ready! If we rally tomorrow, I will short EOD close and add on Wednesday Dont tell me that i didnt warn about this possibility of much much lower levels to be seen in end of Oct to Nov 21st week timeframe! Timing is everything is this game, Do Not Get Trapped!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
30
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . The Employment Situation was released this morning and 263k nonfarm workers were added to the economy in September while Unemployment edged back down to 3.5% from 3.7% in August. The 17th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 2.9% today compared to 2.7% on 10/05 . Cleveland Fed President Mester tried to warn us of rising Unemployment yesterday and it came down today instead, maybe the Federal Reserve is hiring thousands of nonfarm workers to get together and figure out how to bring down inflation. NY Fed President Williams said today that he envisions another aggressive rate hike in November (likely 75bps) and that he too sees a slowdown in job markets in 2023 accompanied by higher interest rates and lower inflation . In response to the oil production cut by OPEC+, The White House Admin tapped into the SPR yet again, bringing its total emergency oil reserves down to the lowest they've been in forty years . With midterm elections coming up in the USA, it's hard not to see this move by the White House as politically motivated. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently testing $3658 minor support + the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3633 as support after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume remains High (low) and has favored sellers in the past two sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3605, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38 support after breaking below the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41. Stochastic crossed over bearish today and is trending down at 78 as it approaches 76.29 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD is currently trending down at -81 after being rejected by -76.22 minor resistance and is on the verge of crossing over bearish if it gets below -86; it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-80 as support. ADX is currently completing a trough and beginning to trend up slightly at 28 as Price is rejected by the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. If Price is able to bounce here at the weak descending trendline from July 2021 (~$3633) then it will have to close above $3658 minor support in order to be able to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
4
SPX supports to holdThe price is finally giving up, recent history is showing that the rallies are lasting 2 days, will it repeat today and we close red, we will see. Numbers of importance for today: Support: - 3749 (on closing level) - 3712.40 - 3680-88SPX (Again this number as an important) support, now becomes an ideal target) - 3640.50 is a final must hold on any close today and tomorrow Resistance: - 3830 - 3860 - 3875 Tomorrow must be very careful with longs! this can really fall tomorrow if no turn today.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8