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Spxanalysis

SPX all eyes on 3721 number!Resistance is at 3725-30 now. Maj support on closing level today is 3721SPX! The price is below that number. So if we close below (and Im looking for a rally back to 3730 and fail) then we could see my 3580 as early as Monday! Next week supports are: - 3662 - 3636 - 3580 - 3540-45 ES next stop is at 3666! We are below all the possible support fib extensions, new lows are coming! How do you feel now about 5500 call (I know some of you watch my channel here), being wrong all year and not admitting it its a diagnosis! Dont get trapped going into the weekend, being in cash is a position too P.S. I got stopped on todays lotto calls, 50% cut, thats why its a lotto
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX weekly end updateHi everyone, This one will be quick Its a weekly closing and I got both daily and weekly Major support at 3721-22SPX on closing level. - S2 is at 3709 - 100% extension off Aug 16 and Sep 12th highs is at 3680SPX We have Powell speaking at 2pm Eastern My trading plan for tomorrow: - currently short, both ES and NQ (ES entered at 3769.50, stop 10 points) - exit ES at 3936 - looking for a low before Powell, ideally in first couple of hours of the trading day - 3721-3709SPX and possible extension (less odds) 3680SPX (has a perfect 1.618 fib for the ES extension lower) - will buy lotto calls if we see second number - exit at the EOD ideally at 3770 level I will be entering with some lotto Monday puts if we get EOD rally and fail before the close Most important number is 3721SPX tomorrow! Closing below will bring 3660 and 3636SPX next week if not lower! There is a potential crash scenario on Monday if we get the rally into the close and fail to close on the highs. Have a good night!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
23
SPX is at its support trendline off Sep 1st and 6th lowIt was a crazy day, as always after FOMC. Im expecting this move down to reverse completely and more by Fri. - Main resistance is at 4012-15SPX on weekly closing - Daily resistance is at 3802-17, 3850-55, 3895 and 3935 Tomorrows support (if the AHs price wont be reversed by the open) levels: - 3752-50 - 3721 - 3680 I expect 3721SPX holding strong on closing level and wont rule out an overshoot to 3680SPX SPX daily targets 3475-85SPX by Oct 28-31st ES support trendline hit - resistance is at 3825-35 for tonight If we open green or flat, it will be a bullish sign and I will be looking to enter with longs and ride it till at least over today's highs. Otherwise will be looking to buy at 3752 and 3721SPX tomorrow for a good size rally back to 3890-95 or so. No point to over trade this but trade the levels of importance Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX one more big bear channel visualizationA slightly lower into my 3802-17 level will be a perfect hit of the lower trend channel. NQ already broke its on to the downside! Important to note A right shoulder fake rally will be perfect before it really drops into Oct/Nov lows Also dont be surprised if it breaks, then look for the retest of the broken trend channel from below P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
14
SPX possible H&S pattern targets 3500 or soI have changed the color theme on my chart and removed everything I could to make it clear for those who are having troubles reading my charts. Look what I just saw! Let me introduce a possible pathway after tomorrows FOMC announcement. On June 15th we have spike up and had a big range day. Then next day the price gaped down and made new lows. I see kinda similar pathway were we either make a new low in am - 3802-17 and maybe 3795, then rally up to 3925-65SPX level to make a right shoulder. (I prefer 3955-65 in case we see low of 3800 in am) Then the price can start moving fast and get below 3700 even by Friday, bottoming on the 27th in Tuesday turn around structure. That low can be as deep as 3500! I have fibs supporting this possible move down from 3680 to 3500 So my plan for tomorrow, exit shorts (partly) in am and go long for a FOMC squeeze. Then short the close and hold into the 27th low. Please do your own risk management as the price can be very volatile and will take both sides in stops (been there done that) 22nd is a reversal day of whatever day we get tomorrow and should bottom or top on the 27th. So if in fact we see selling after the FOMC, then I will be looking for a long at the end of the day instead of shorting the hole. - 3802-17, 3752 and 3721 are the support levels to watch! I will leave this right here. Feel free to share this update with anyone. P.S. (Sometimes Im getting interesting comments like my charts make people seizures (those people dont even follow me). Just want to make it clear, that Im not here to make it pretty, Im not selling a anything to anyone or make money out of my posts. I do post my updates just to share with those who will appreciate that work and use it for their own homework. So please no need to even follow or see my charts if you cant read them, that means you're very new to the markets and need to do more study and learn simple stuff like moving averages, support/resistance lines as well as trendlines etc. All my charts are working progress, please respect that as well as my time)
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
34
SPX to hit 3802-17I missed am short, now waiting for 3802-17 to go long. Wont rule out a move down to 3750 tomorrow before FOMC The way I see it is that we will bottom today tomorrow and rally back to 3880+ after the FOMC decision, then completely erase the move by Fri. Should bottom on the 17th and rally up into EOM early Oct, then continue lower Dont try to trade this, very choppy designed to take both sides. I got chopped with stops here, now entered with short and exit at my 3802-17SPX level P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX to retest broken trendline from the bottomMain resistance for the SPX is: - 3942 - 3952-60 Support cluster is still the same: - 3802-3817 - 3750-55 and much lower (check my last SPX update) Im currently long ES and some SPY calls and will be adding to my swing short NQ position tomorrow and ideally on Wednesday. - 3955 and 3975 are the 2 numbers where I will be adding to my short position. In case of a super bullish case (like the one in NQ going to 12700), next resistance level to short is: - 4025-35 So far Im looking for lower level, again please see my latest SPX update (link above) And I think there is one big move down is coming up very soon. Ideally we bottom on the 27-29th and rally hard into early Oct where we should see lower prices printed before this is over and another 11-14% rally starts Have a good night P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SPX Weekend quick updateI was busy all weekend, this update will be quick. Still seeing this as a bear market, well it is for the past 9 months wasnt it. The main trend is still down! Please note those purple lines are the unfilled gaps, will be gone each time the price will fill those, otherwise act as magnet to fill, depends on the trend Looking at the price action, I can see 1-2, 1-2 development (Im not an EWT pro or do I want to be at this point) to the downside and much lower levels into Oct/Nov low. Also think, that this bear market will merge into Q1 2023 and should bottom sometime in Apr/early May As for this upcoming week of Sep 19th: - Im looking for a day or 2 muted bounce and continue lower after the FOMC decision. - If we see the opposite, a drift lower into the FOMC decision, then I would be looking for a long right before the announcement. I think we will bottom this week on the 21st-22nd, or make a intraday low next week 27-29th. Friday price action wasnt what I expected and limited to the downside by holding 3850 level. I dont find that level important to hold and think its a low level of support at this point. The most important thing on Friday was this - the price gaped down below my 3880-86 support level, which was much stronger then 3850 level. So I think this can still get to 3802-17SPX early next week, ideally on Monday and then move up into a muted action to 3950-60SPX level and reverse lower from there. Main weekly resistance is 4155-60 with 4015-25 in the middle. Support levels: - 3802-17 - 3750-55 - 3735-40 - 3720 - below last number nothing but air till 3636 and my ideal target of 3580, 3550-55 and 3500 even. My main target for this move is at 3200-10SPX! And I think we will see lower into 2020 higher lows in 2023 Im looking to buy longs tomorrow in 3802-17 zone or just short 3950 zone. No need in over trading this but the levels of importance! Have a great weekend, do not over trade, this bear market will get both sides, wait for a good setup to take with higher R/R odds P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17
Posted this on the 12th of Sep, playing out so well!!!I did post this warning on Sep 12th as well as emailed to those who are on my email list. Check the MACD on that day and now! It created a hook and continued lower, bearish! Some people noted and didnt get trapped on that day, it was daily high close DO NOT GET TRAPPED Today!!! Dont short this red whole! Have to leave, will be back in few hours, again dont get trapped on the short side today! P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
19
SPX Sep 15th mid day updateI was sleeping in today, no point to trade this market but hold swing short position. Mid Bollinger or 20MA crossed 110MA on daily, not a good sign for the bulls. MACD is still making new lows. This seems to get to 3680SPX by the FOMC decision or right after. Main resistance now is at 4030-45SPX Mid resistance is at 3970-85SPX and I think we wont get above on any test, like it came short yesterday. I will short 3970-85 level for a continuation of this move down So far its breaking down here to my eyes and should follow through soon. Main support is at 3880-86 now! On closing level I will be trying long at 3880-86SPX tomorrow am, but its OPEX day and all the quarterly hedges will be off the lines and this can unleash much bigger swings in both directions, but main direction is down. After the FOMC meeting 3680 should produce a good size bounce and ideally we see lower in Oct, 35-34 handle is very doable imo. So need to over trade this as it chops both sides!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX quick updateI want quickly update the SPX chart. 2 scenarios: 1 - we gap down tomorrow 2 - we hold the lows and go up in am First scenario: Support is at 3885-86SPX And nothing till 3800-20 I would be looking for 3775 and ideally 3680 as the main targets before or buy 20-21st. Second scenario is we see 3970-85SPX tomorrow and sell off into above outlined numbers by 20-21st. Or we make a higher low and stretch to 4152-55 and ideally above 4200+ to a potential 4295-4300 by same 20-21st. 4145-60 is a very strong resistance! So all eyes are on the overnight or pre-market action. Breaking today's lows will be bearish and we closed below my 3955 and especially 3935SPX today, so I favour a gap down in this case. Holding 3885-86 level tomorrow am, will be a good sign for a potential reversal, below is air till 3800-20SPX I have positions on both sides and I personally would love to see an extension up into 4155 and even 4295SPX zone before the real crash happens. Looking for lower levels regardless of the price and ideally we wont get there in one straight line. Im looking for a low in Oct and that low should be a good buying opportunity going into EOY Have a good night P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
42
SPX MACD hook formation - warned Monday amI did warn about this possible outcome early Monday am All we need is to gap down tomorrow (which has a high probability now as we closed below 3955 and especially 3935) Then the downside targets will be 3775 and even 3680. It can even stretch to 3450 if Jun lows are broken. Only a gap up tomorrow can save from this pathway for now. Dont pay attention to the chart, but the MACD P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
13
SPX can extend to a higher high before the 21st or fail hardIts all about 4125-35, 4150-60 and 4202SPX now. All 3 are resistance levels! Support is at 4085-90 and 4025, below it we should see 3955SPX Im not sure about the exact pathway, so my game plan is to short 4145-60 and 4202 zone. If we breakout I will flip for a trip back to 4285-92 and even over 4300SPX Please note, that this can even extend to 4425 just to screw everyone out on both sides and then sell hard. So regardless of the situation, I will be short (if we make a new high) or long (if we make a higher low) on the 20-21st or before the FOMC. Ideally we spike up to 4125-35 and even 4145-60SPX tomorrow and sell off into Fri OPEX low. That low should produce a good setup for a few days rally before the FOMC decision on the 21st. One certain thing is that the Oct low should provide a good buy and hold setup going into EOY high. Ideally we make a new low in Oct and then higher low in Nov (before the Midterms) and then off we go together with Santa. Jan (in case of the above scenario) should mark the high and then we should see lows in Apr. Levels of importance tomorrow: - 4145 - 4160-62 Closing above those levels will get us back to 4195-4205SPX by Fri. Im going to short tomorrow's gap for the crap scenario. Ideally we hit 4125-35 or even 4145-60 in am and crap from there. Have a good night P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX possible pathway to min 3720 and ideal 3450!I want to present a very possible pathway in case MACD will make a hook like turn, which is very bearish! I saw this many times, when everyone is cheering bullish and looking for that golden cross and all they get is a the hook formation (zoomed in and outlined at the bottom of the chart) So far MACD is still way below 0, RSI is at 50 level and could make a lower high. We have touched 50% today and one more push to 4150 zone for 61.8 (see the retracement fibs on the chart) is what I would expect to hold for that MACD hook formation. - 4090 is the support now, - 4125-35, 4145 and 4160 resistance So stay alert, have stops if trading on the long side! BTW all the pink lines are the unfilled gaps P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX gapped up, no Fri sell off repeate, main support is at 4025We didnt get a move down off am highs as I was hoping for, gap up above 4020-35 happen, so the move lower is off the table. Now 4025 and 4015 are 2 main supports to hold for next week to continue advance. 4085 is next target. This still can be a fakeout and if we close below am open, and especially below 4015SPX it will be bearish and I will be looking for 3925 to test early next week before push to higher levels. I got stopped on half short from overnight and holding the other half for the fakeout scenario. Will hedge at 4025 and 4015 level (will cut if we close below 4015) So far the pathway up is in play, I dont expect much lower till 4125-35 test and ideally 4200 P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX weekly closing day - Fri updateHi everyone! Im still battling with timing on the high and potential crash this/next month. We either bottom this month, we have interest rate decision on the 21st and then up into Oct 3rd week where the turn suppose to happen and last into EOM or even Nov. My timing showing a low in Oct/Nov. There is a chance for us to see 4425! but the lows we just had must hold, then that high will be early Oct. But there are several supper strong resistances to overtake: - 4085 - 4125-35 - 4308 - 4385SPX My fib calculation as well as previous calculations support this possible pathway, then the Oct/Nov low will be in 3240SPX zone!!! - There is also a 61.8 retracement at 3195SPX off 2020 Mar lows! - This move up will be a perfect C wave up of the bigger B wave in case we made A high in Aug (I have this pathway outlined in green count) My main count is still to hold 4125-35 and ideally stretch to 4200SPX before serious selling into EOM. - I have Panic month on Oct in SPX and Sep for the DOW. Interesting thing is SPX had a panic month on Sep as well, but cycles have moved it to Oct now. But I want to be open for a potential screw up of the bears and making the bulls believe we are on the pathway to ATHs (again). That alone will screw up so many! Ideally we make a higher monthly close in Sep and intraday high early Oct, then the cycles will match with the turn in Oct where we can have a huge sell into MidTerms. - Then we should rally into EOY to do a damage control and top out in Jan. Im still battling about Santa Rally as this year is completely different from others. - Also energy and food crisis in Europe might put a lot of pressure into the markets, unless there is a bigger war erupted and the European money will flow into the US. Which I do expect to happen next year or 2024... So lets talk about tomorrow, so I can go to sleep: Today's close was into the wall with last 10 min pump, that usually ends up in following day being red, at least first part of it. Also closed below intraday highs = not bullish. - Needs a gap up above 4020 (and ideally 4030) or we should see lower levels tomorrow. Im short into tomorrow from the close and some from AHs highs, half position. Last few weeks we dump big on Friday's, will it repeat tomorrow? My bet is yes. Tomorrow is a turning day! Ideally we see a higher low tomorrow and reverse hard into last hour or 2 of the day and never look back, that would setup a move for much higher next week Its VIX OPEX on Wed, triple witching week 200MA here on 4h chart is the ideal target for this move! - Or 4125-35 and ideal at 4200+ for the top of this move this month Tomorrow resistance is at: - first resistance 4020SPX - Main resistance to take 40350SPX - 4085SPX is the closing resistance for higher levels early next week The only real support I have now is low 3800 cluster, if we test 3885-3900 again it will slice it imo. So lets see if they can push it up and save the day before and at least the OPEX and the interest rate decision on the 21st. Have a good night! P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8