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S&P 500 index: Bear market rally to top out at 4,050?The S&P 500 ( US 500 ) has experienced a remarkable 15% rally since its lows on October 13. This was the second bear market rally in 2022, after the US stock market officially entered a bear market in May. If we are currently undergoing a two-month bear market rally similar to the one saw last summer, the S&P 500 index is expected to peak at about 4,050 points on December 13. On that day, the US will release its November CPI inflation figures, and the Federal Reserve will meet just one day later. Technically, the index is trading near the 4,000-point psychological barrier, which also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows to the highs of 2022. The 200-day moving average is located just above this level at 4,076 points right now and may shortly follow the path of the 2022 bearish trendline. This multi-resistance zone between the critical 4,000 and 4,050/60 marks could be a significant technical hurdle for the S&P 500, where bulls may struggle to move further. Two possible outcomes could follow, depending on whether the S&P 500 breaks through this significant resistance area or not. 1) Head-and-shoulders pattern with SPX heading towards 3,500 If the bear market rally peaks at 4,050 in December, the price action will have formed the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, which depicts the S&P 500 index falling below the neckline at 3,500 points by the end of 2022 or the start of the next year. 2) Breakout and extension towards August highs Alternatively, a breakout of the multi-resistance zone around 4,050 may occur if US inflation continues to decline and the Federal Reserve adopts a less hawkish approach in December. In that case, the index might extend its gains toward 4,156, which represents 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, and possibly test the August highs at 4,323, which would complete 61.8% of the retracement.
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
10Y could be the little catalyst that mkts are looking for !!SPX Yields Vs 10Y will let the big dogs shift from stocks to the 10Y for better retunes and much safer/secure investments. Little guys need to watch carefully for this shift if it's even a probable scenario. But when we have such high spikes like today volatility will increase in the mkt and we could see a big final drop in our Y wave of WXY or even further down in a triple zig zag WXYXXZ. Moreover we will meet our H&H + Down channel's targets as well to say the leas. - Stay safe & enjoy your weekend guys.
TVC:US10Y
by samitrading
2
SPX Triple Combination COROMADNESS a.k.a COROMANIA Long Entry! A Triple Zigzag or combination as what we are seeing in the S&P will usually channel far too well to be considered an Impulse pattern. The declining waves are too similar in price and time coverage, which is mandatory for Impulsive activity. This triple combination pullback indiacte weakness, although does not present an Impulsable pattern, we have MUST hold above the 61.8% for this roller coaster triangulation pattern to remain valid for the rest of 2020. Plotting the future course of the U.S Stock Market
SP:SPXLong
by wallstreetsharks
S&P 500 and the flying of IcarusThe S&P 500 in the last years has made a remarkable flight until now, but the question that everybody is wondering but just some of us dare to ask is, " When the music its gonna stop?". I wonder if Icarus from the myth asked himself the same type of question before the fall. The domestics problems of the United States are scaling and worth it to take a look. The student debt, it's setting new records like never before, reaching over $ 1.5 Trillion in debt ( by the way, the delinquency rate it's growing faster every month). The federal government is about hit its credit limit, topping $22 Trillion in debt. The auto loan delinquency it's rising worryingly too. So when you have all these systematic domestic problems at the same time that the POTUS, opened a trade war with almost all the majors' players of the international commercial. Yes, Trump obtained some victories like USCA; In the EU even after some cooldown, there is still a hassle in some matters like the automobile market. But with China, things got messy, where there in the crossfire a total of U$360 Billion in tariffs was traded between the two sovereigns countries. This Trade war has set the tone lately, with the pull and push playing coming from the FED, to make things spicier. But every trader that read the news every day and work at the market had seen a quite curious pattern. When the market closes in a green mood, the headlines are basically " Trade hopes lift the market" when the bears show their face on the daily candle, and the financial journals are ready to say " Trade concerns bring pessimism to the market." The effect of all this has already shown its faces at the last earnings season, with big companies cutting into profits and investments The Cherry on top, its the inner fight between federal institutions. The wrestle that the president it's facing to get ride of the investigation about the Russian influence at the presidential elections, with Trump allies like Robert Mueller getting squeezed one by one that is a pandora box ready to blow up and spread the disgrace. So let's take a closer and quickly look at some sectors of the S&P 500 to see where the curveball could come. Technology - 25.78% - Big techs had been hit hard by data breach scandals (Facebook); Drop in the sales (Apple and big chipset producers); Major fines for violations of political use (Google); Political backlash (Amazon), and other minor issues Health Care - 13.71% - Trumps administration has put the drug price cut, as a priority goal. And this could hit hard the profits of the sector; The FDA has provided many stepbacks to the farmaceuticals. So basically the S&P 500 it's flying straight forward to the sun, brave and stronger than never or otherwise we are watching just some delusional attempt to do so, waiting for the moment that the hopium it's going to fade away, and the smell of the wings burning coming into the nose, taking the same path of Icarus. Thanks for reading, leave a comment and opinion if you like and have nice trades.
SP:SPXShort
by Igor-Silva