SPY - Preparing for the best trade ROI in 10 yearsLooking good so far if you're shorting this beast.
We have a very clear cut bear flag consolidation that makes trading very easy. It hasn't broken yet but when it does " LOOK OUT BELOW " Its measured move takes us to 230 on the SPY. Although 240 will provide some bounce as it has nice support on the left side of the chart. If 263 breaks then that we should start to get our impulse down. If your long in this market then please just get out & let things pass. If you're short then congratulations because you might be on top of the best trade in 10 years in the legacy markets.
We could, of course, get another relief rally/dead cat up to 270 upon which will be the next shorting opportunity. Price at this point should be capped at the 275 area due to some death crosses happening in our MA's
Happy Trading
SPXL
S&P Update
These markets were made to move! As discussed in my previous analysis from Septemeber we have massive bearish diveregence in the RSI on our legacy markets. Elections helped give us a reason for uncertainity but politics will not ever Trump the Charts. They will simply fulfill them. The chart is King and news and events will often confirm what the chart had first been telling you. What is the Chart telling us? Well it all started in around 2009. We had a recession instigated by the mortgage crisis. To get us out of this crisis our government had done many bad things that essentially "kicked the massive can down the road." Bailouts, excessive Fed printing, lowered interest rates for years, and many other things. We used electric shock resuscitation to keep our economy from collapsing into a depression. Well the electric bill from that crisis is just now showing up in our mail box. "But the economy has never been stronger" "What better time to pay your outstanding bills?"
Anyway, economic theory doesn't really matter because the markets are really all about the chart, perception and fear.
To sum up:
Purple is our consolidation range. Breaking up or down out of that will be the start of an impulsive move.
(Disclaimer: if you are only willing to invest Long/Bullish and you think that this is just a small correction and the wost has already come. Then, you must not buy into the market until we are comfortably living above the purple resistance on a weekly chart. This is very important only then will my analysis and hypothesiszed downward move be nullified) Even if somehow the market gets up to that purple line resistance it will be printing a third even stronger monthly bearish divergence and it would be a clear sell signal. If the markets make it up half way to that resistance and fall of it will be a head and shoulders reversal pattern. So not until competely clearing and holding above it would be "safe" to invest.
Green 55 Weekly is acting as short term resistance at around 272
Gold 21 Monthly is supporting our arses at 261.5
The black and bold lines you see run us back all the way a decade to our last recession. We have since stayed within these lines which have created a quite large Ascending Wedge pattern, which eventually break to the downside at some point.
Speculation: There have been very strong correlations between the crypto market and the SPY even though they are avery different parts of their repsective market cycles. The fact that BTC had made another impulse move down today could help the SPY break the purple consolidation support. Watch out for a Monday gap down where we test 260 support as well as the falling wedge support. The falling wedge support is difficult to get exact so I will be trading off of horizontal supports (like 260) and MA's.
This breakdown could start tomorrow or in 3 months. There is really no way to tell exactly. I would say there's pretty good evidence that it could happen soon, but we could also get supported and play around more in this purple flag consolidation and pull in more bulls before crashing. Like I mentioned above we could create a 3rd divergence by going all the way to the top purple resistance or part way up to create a head and shoulders patern, before coming down hard. Supports: 240, 213, and if we complete a full corrective bear market we could hit our highs from 2007 at 153.
Stock Trade Plan - 07 November 2018
The trade idea for today is an ETF with ticker symbol SPXL that trades the S&P 500 3x, it is a leverage S&P 500 a 3x version of SPY. It can be compared to SPY.
This is a straight bullish trade;
Entry is at $48
Stop is at $46
Target is at $55
The risk reward is a ratio of 7:2, which is a great reward risk ratio. You can trade options for December 2018 in the money with open interest at $45 (4.60/$5).
Let me know what you think about it in the comment box below
SPY closes strong on huge bull volumeBulls definitely showing they're not going to roll over here.
Key levels:
S: 279.00 - lose that and we lolk for healthy 4hr and daily consolidation
R: 281.10, then a lack of resistance until 286.91
We've now bounced over half way from the low of the dump back to all time high
Big movement ahead on SPXLBull flag vs RSI correction
RSI suggests market correection for tomorrow and next week camdlesticks based on oct 03,09,117 situations. Purple vertical lines shows historic path itself.
Bull Flag
Background: 12 d 5h for -16.23% down
Stick: 20h for +8% up
Flag: 1d 6h +3.39% up
However, there is a huge resistance at 45 price level, so we can expectate another selling wing/breath to break through 50 level
S&P hourly chart SPY on the daily timeframe has a daily inside bar and it's second bearish candlestick in a row. Low of the day did hold a long term trendline (blue) from back in January 2016 but also closed below the 200MA (green). So far we're looking at a very weak bounce on the daily and a potential bear flag. The amount of bear volume stands out compared to the bull volume. For details I'm zooming into the hourly chart to better understand what's going on.
Into next week we're watching a tightening hourly equilibrium between 274.97 and 279.30. These are the most important levels going into Monday. If we break bearish out of this range we will be looking down to test the low of the dump 270.36 and if we break bullish we're looking up to for continuation of the daily oversold bounce, with resistance at the top of the bounce so far at 281.15. If we break bullish we will certainly set a lower high on the weekly chart compared to our all time high.
SPY is a weekly inside bar so if we break the hourly equilibrium bearish we do have one more important support before testing our recent lows: 274.30; however that level is not terribly significant to me as I put more weight into the equilibrium break.
Using hourly chart for short term direction over the coming days,
Key short term support: 274.97
Key short term resistance: 279.30
On the break of this hourly pattern I will consider playing 3x bull or bear leveraged ETFs SPXL and SPXS.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
NQ Futures Long Trade IdeaWell - volatility has been crazy but the bulls are coming back as strong as the bears were last week.
The 7320 target reached and has even been exceeded.
Here is a price action scenario I can see occuring and would be looking for the following trade setup:
Directional Bias: Long
Price Target: 7420
Good Entry: 7200-7220
Risk/Reward: 30 points max risk (below 7170 invalidates) / 200 point reward.