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SPXL

SPY - Cup & Handle formationWon't know if this is a continuation or reversal until we see strong volume pushing price above/below the handle formation, and holding. The daily/weekly picture for SPX is not as doom and gloomy as short sellers would like. A lot of investors want to see the upper channel of the multi-year trend channel tested once more before we go into full recession mode sell-off. The handle is bullish in terms of weak (falling) selling volume, hence the sideways action in the handle. Price WANTS to move up, and RSI bottoming is occurring on the lower time frames revealing that buyers are looking to get the MA pointed up again. Price targets for a bullish breakout would be $375-385 using conservatives estimates. We still need to see 2-day/weekly RSI peak before the bulls relent. Not opening a position inside the handle until we get a breakout and confirmation (long or short) -- but leaning towards long for above reasons.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SLOPolarBear
3
BEAR TRAP OR BULL TRAP?Is the market breaking out or still correcting? I can make a case for 5 waves up from March with a correction that potentially started in September. This could also be the start of wave #5 which puts price a good bit higher. I cannot determine that yet- price would need to drop hard very soon to convince me of a continued correction. There's just one red flag on this chart worth watching. The heavy pink line is the put:call ratio average. It is potentially reversing which could signal a trend change in price. As price moves up, the ratio drops. As price moves down, the ratio increases. This provides an excellent gauge for true sentiment. Tracking the price direction, volume , and the put/call average can really help identify where the masses are throwing their money. Always being contrary isn't wise but there is a time & place for it if you know how to identify a change in the wind... one way is to wait for the wind to change!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gghsusa
SPY - Sleep Aid for BearsI expect this pattern will take about (6) months to develop. There's a lot of denial going around these days, and I think that has contributed to numerous traders (say, half the country?) eager to put us back into that bullish ascending channel where we were up until Covid-19 arrived. The other half of us are gazing at these charts shaking our heads in disbelief; the fundamentals just don't line up. But fortunately, neither do the technical indicators. If you scroll back to the Dot-Com crash and Global Financial Crisis crash you'll see a common pattern. Outside of this pattern, it's difficult to imagine a breakout about $361 (in the near term), but anything is possible. Keep those stops tight and happy trading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SLOPolarBear
3
SPY - Pullback to $333I chose the 4-hour chart for this pitch since it's a perfect blend of all of the time frames leading into next week. A handful of indicators show price divergence in the lower time frames: 1. Volume-weighted RSI 2. Increasing selling volume 3. Accumulation/Distribution Each of these indicators are fairly bullish AFTER the retracement, which is why I'm predicting a brief price markdown followed by a bounce. From there, lots of unknowns. Future clouds reveal support at these levels is fragile; a double-bottom @ $333 would be a nice price point to bounce into the daily/weekly trends, which are bullish until the first week of November (you don't say?). The predicted pattern gives us a failed head and shoulders which will be shorted on the 2nd bounce and give a little rocket fuel to the upward bounce as they buy to cover. I'm a fan of Ichimoku Clouds with the SPY. Price almost always retraces after breaking out from a downtrend. Trump is in Sanford, Florida doing a rally on Monday -- seems like a ripe opportunity for him to tweet/say something stupid to kickstart this correction. Anyone else have any thoughts?
AMEX:SPYShort
by SLOPolarBear
3
[SPXL/SPX x SPX] SPXL Megaphone Puts SPX Megaphone to Shame!SPXL Megaphone pattern is broader and what's worse is that Price only made it just over HALFWAY back up rather than all the way back to the top again as SPX achieved. Now SPXL Price is barely hanging on at dead center of the Megaphone and the trend here is overwhelmingly more BEARISH than the SPX trend would suggest. I pegged these two starting from the first peak in the megaphone. Another reason I'm looking for much more downside to come.
AMEX:SPXLShort
by ProfitHarvest
3
Another Taffer in the Shadows?This is the NEW YORK COMPOSITE INDEX. Please see my previous post just a couple of weeks ago about this drop and what to expect from here. Based on all the data I can muster to analyze, the correction is not over. It's possible that we rally and/or drift sideways into the election but this looks very concerning to me.. I keep hearing from too many people that the Fed has their back. They believe the Fed will hold their hand to victory into an eternal upward rally. I am not one to dismiss the melt-up scenario and hyper-inflationary end game, but this is what I see right now.. I see the potential for another drop. The bigger question- what happens after this drop? Do we have a 08-like melt-down or is that just another dip to buy in this bull run? We'll take it as it comes. Please be smart, patient, and immune to public sentiment. Think for yourself but study, study, study!
TVC:NYA
by gghsusa
How big will the next correction be?I'm looking forward to the next correction. I see the potential for a drop from current price back to 2800-2900 in the s&p and a 40% chance that, IF that occurs, we could retest March lows.. seems unlikely doesn't it? Remember to expect the unexpected and look forward. Don't spend too much time looking in the rearview mirror at old news, trying to make fundamental sense out of what you believe. Look down when everyone is looking up and look up when everyone is looking down. The most likely scenario I see playing out is a 15-20% drop from here into Nov-Dec and a period of consolidation and volatility. I would welcome that. If we continue to creep up without a pivot from this area very soon, then I expect another 60 days of upward creep with a price target of 3960-4100. I am fully prepared for that and still have some long exposure just in case. There are a few oil & natural gas companies that I am holding and will hold for the long term regardless of what I believe in the short term. However, I am very cautiously, slowly, and patiently hedging for this next potential drop. It's when, not if. Then, after such an event (whether we retrace only 50% of the Fed's corona rally or past March lows), I will begin looking up again. Consider what actions the Fed would surely take if that happens.. We have all the ingredients in the cake for the s&p to double from current price into the end of 2022 to over 7000. That move would not come without sharp drops and pops in volatility but don't be stubborn trying to be right by fighting price.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gghsusa
11
ES Futures - August in Review As September is just around the corner and the 2020 Elections is just two months away a quick look back at the unfinished business for the month. As noted there are five Virgin Points of Control in August, moreover there 4 gaps in the SPX - price usually doubles back to confirm price before moving up. This isn't happening - and the market profile is very thin in places. The lowest Gap in the SPX is at 3284. I'm not here to say the market must confirm these prices - but it usually does.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Maximilianned
Is History Rhyming?I posted this idea last year and I've been amazed at how similar the giant broadening formation has rhymed from the 60's-70s. I have several other forecasts that involve at least a 50% retracement from the March rally and this helps to paint that picture quite well. Will the Fed step in more heavily if we have another sell off? Does history repeat and we break up into a hyper bubble? One of my forecasts involves us retracing the entire corona rally and taking out March lows. I believe the Fed would step in very heavily in such an event but what happens if we retrace just 50%? Keep an eye on this giant broadening pattern and be prepared to change your bias based on which direction we break. Eventually we're going much lower or much higher. Original forecast from Nov 19:
TVC:DJI
by gghsusa
3
Time to H.O.L.D F.A.S.T ?I am seeing weakness in stocks with a loss of momentum and volume. There are several interesting red flags I'm observing at this time on many of my indicators.This is just one of many but it shows the percent of s&p stocks above their 50-day moving average. It can serve as a leading indicator and should be observed with a comparison of the index as well as a stoch/rsi or momentum indicator. We can stay in creep mode for a while but I'm expecting a drop soon. I'm not certain if it'll be a lower low (than March) or just a mild 10-15% correction but we should know soon enough. Time to hold fast.
INDEX:S5FI
by gghsusa
1
NDX to SPX ratio - tech wreck 2.0?Keep watch of this ratio-We're looking like 1999 based on this ratio. Tech to go hyper before tech wreck 2.0? The recipe is slightly different but it's starting to smell the same. Even if this plays out, we should see the NASDAQ cool off & consolidate for a bit..perhaps we'll see some weakness going to the Fall prior to election with increased volatility in the markets. I'm looking for some type of cycle trough in the markets in the next 2-3 months. While I seriously doubt it's going to be a lower low (than March low), it's not off the table. Cycle lows occur very quickly whereas cycle peaks roll & roll. March is a great example of just how quickly cycle troughs can occur. We witnessed the fastest & deepest drop in market history this year which proved to be a fantastic buying opportunity. Let's see what the markets offers next. Another correction in markets might be met with even more life-support from the Fed.
TVC:NDQ
by gghsusa
18
S&P (SPX500USD): Make this Money Printer Go Brrr!✨ We provide charts every day ✨ Like and Follow to help us grow family! 🎉 --- Let's see if that money printer can make it rain friends! Today we are looking to see if the uptrend can continue with the S&P (SPY, SPX, SPX500USD, etc). Longing the uptrend in equities has been profitable recently, let's assume that trend continues and talk about entries, exits, and key levels. --- 1. S&P is currently in an uptrend within a channel as illustrated on the chart. We recently saw a reaction off the bottom of the channel which produced a long signal. 2. With the strategy in use we want to go long ONLY when Fractal Trend signals an uptrend (Green background color) AND Breakaway Scalper then signals an uptrend (Green bar color). 3. With a long signal having been recently produced, we are watching R1 and R2 for reactions. If rejected at R1 we will watch for a retest of the trend line or even a trip down to S1. If price can get past R1, then the levels to watch above are R2 and R3. 4. If the uptrend channel is broken, S1 and S2 are the next levels to watch for support. 5. Regardless of which way the price goes, we will be using the built in trailing stop on Breakaway Scalper to reduce risk and lock in profits if we move to the upside.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AlphaBotSystem