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[TVIX] SPX New Local High... TVIX Sideways? New Support ChannelsAlright guys another successful day! But wait... SPX set new highs!? AHHH time to meltdown and unload everything! Not exactly. New SPX highs should be followed by new VIX lows and ESPECIALLY 2x TVIX lows in a proper bull market. This has yet to retest May 12th low and is sitting halfway between two major supports and just under the diagonal support and within the middle horizontal support channel. Do notice that we're quickly approaching the yellow resistance line and wedging into a breakout point, which is really just perfect timing here as it aligns with Thursday and I'm anticipating the market will go south Thursday and Friday on release of devastating fundamental news. MACD is teasing the trend change, RVI can be an indicator for RSI (RSI shooting up means price is spiking) and it crossed above RSI on May 27th and has since gained some divergence on the one week time scale here. I guess tomorrow we'll limp to a brand new high with the last Retail FOMO stragglers blowing a bunch of money and hating on us poor data nerd folk before it all comes crashing down. Happy harvesting!
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
17
[SPX] ADX x DPO SELL Cross, Hugging to Support, Wait for Friday!Haters already comin outta the woodwork! That means we're on to something guys B). Apparently setting a new high by a few points is proof that this market is about to sky rocket and all the bears are big, poor losers... oh poor me :(. Very interesting data point we have there. Lets see how the hopes and dreams investing strategy works out for ya lol. Living within the lazy, manipulative constructs of 'Bears vs Bulls' will always put you at a disadvantage in stock trading. It's like 'us vs. them' sports mentality and conservative American mentality and Wall Street uses it to part investors with their money in the same way sports teams part fans with their money. Anyway, we got a ADX x DPO sell cross on about one week time scale. Usually DPO is moving down and they cross in the middle, here DPO continued it's rise too with a sharp, clear breakthrough. How do we know it's sell and not buy? Because the high DPO positioning and downward ROC trend. Look at RSI and RVI, pretty strong sell. RVI can function as a leading indicator for RSI and continued ROC trend decline and RSI incline with RVI already under RSI strengthens our case every day it's not broken. MACD resistance still holding steady, how is that not terrifying for bulls? It's looking for a trend change too. The weirdest here is the TRIN which I forget what it means but basically 2.0 and higher is panic selling behavior and we flipped from panic selling to soft buying, still not very encouraging here. Has BULL TRAP written all over that shit. Wait for Friday people! As always best of luck bulls ;).
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
17
[TVIX] 2nd Bar Today Kissed Top of Channel + New Support ChannelI guess lets wait for next week and see if I'm right. So far I had expected it to raise a lot higher by now. I think by ramp projection is a week or two early maybe but I still think we've seen the bottom until we cross the red-line at this point. Not much to do but wait. I'm loaded, plenty of room if it spikes to 3200 too. Probably worst case before crash, if somehow people can swing another upwave amidst the shitstorm of economic news dropping next week. Good luck bulls... I say good luck. TVIX is not just a bet on a market crash, but the side hedge is volatility and no way next week will be smooth.
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
12
[SPX] Indicators Screaming SELL... Ignore at Your Own Peril!MACD looking to flip. ADX looking to flip. DPO very high. RSI as VPT screaming sell. RSI and RVI screaming sell. SMAs weighing heavy on market and indicating a sell. POC under price and signaling sell. Really hard to make any kind of bull case from technicals here. This is my last rundown on SPX before the creash probably (will start tomorrow and continue through mid-June). I'll be busy riding the TVIX for the next two weeks :).
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
8
[SPX 1W Trend Analysis] Oh Boy... This Looks Much Worse Was inspired by @cryptocarlsontrading who made a very compelling 1W short case here: www.tradingview.com Wanted to build on that with my own 1W breakdown. As a swing trader sometimes I get caught too much in my 4h world and it can be very instructive to zoom out and see the bigger picture. After doing this exercise, I'm even more convinced of the coming June crash. Just look at those parallel trend channels compared to the support. We're definitely retesting 1W green support in June with some risk of breaking and holding under that for a few days (although given the consistency here I think there is more chance for a bounce off of it). Points: 1. That MACD is horrifying. Most likely the histogram and MACD line won't even go high enough to retest channel resistance before shooting back down. 2. The price barely crossed the half way point of the current trend channel, expect it to fall back and stick at channel support a bit, won't retest channel resistance. Volume Profile will support it pretty well. 3. Very slippery Volume Profile slope once it holds below current channel, expect it to slide all the way down to bottom support of new channel (4th yellow line) 4. Once it breaks that expect it to test the green support before rebounding for good and growth can continue at a more normalized, properly priced trajectory. 5. RSI: New up channel is steeper than previous up channel, likely will stick to blue down channel here. 6. OBV: Seems like a decent sell signal trigger here once it breaks below trendline. 7. VPT as RSI: Very strong sell signal. 8. POC is below price, it is right at the price on the 4h, this is bearish as well.
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
[SPX] SMA Trend Analysis - Beautiful 10 & 200 & POC ConvergenceAlrighty, long term I'm looking to build some kind of SMA trend and volume analysis model that could provide useful signals based on the angle of the trend lines and the POC and this is the start. Like if you wish to support my work! 10 & 50 moving in parallel about ~7 degrees below the 200. 100 moving ~15 degrees below the 200. POC is converging beautifully right with the 10 and 200 strongly signaling something is reaching a breaking point either up or down. All fundamentals and technicals pointing to down. All hopes and dreams and FOMO pointing to up. The market cannot be equal in value today as in January 2019. That is fundamental insanity. So this will almost certainly be a breaking point downward. Anyway, I digress! Let's note here that the... 200 is trending 12 degrees below the POC 100 - 23 below 50 - 16 below 10 - 16 below Lets call the average of these four Market Gravity POC. That gives out a Downward Gravity of 16.75. Here's my first shot at reading the tea leaves: I would say the 100 moving at such a steep degree against the 200 and twice the degree of the 10 and 50 is an extremely bearish short term signal. And the tandem trend of the 10 and 50 as bearish as well. The fact that the Market Gravity POC runs below the 10, 50 and 200 is also a very bearish signal. I would say the case is made AT LEAST for the market retesting March lows if not a medium to high degree of downside potential beyond that. Where you at?
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
8
[SPX] Prepare for the Reckoning! June is Gonna Be Ugly.Looks like a triple top short setup. Fundamentals point to a small crash in June and that will likely trigger programmatic selloffs that crash this beast. Institutional investors are expecting a crash by a wide margin while retail investors are FOMOing at the mouth. We won't be back here for another year at least. Green lines are support but decent chance it'll plumb new lows for a few days at least. Fed and vaccine hype can't keep this thing afloat forever on it's own.
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
13
SPX S&P 500 2 Week ForecastTrump wants to win re-election. Trump can’t win if the US economy enters recession. The only way Trump can possibly avoid recession is if the Fed cuts interests rates now. If the Fed waits til the market has tanked in order to cut rates, it will be too late to avoid recession via monetary stimulus that point. Trump needs rate cuts now! In order to get this he is using the tariffs to tank the stock market now to force the Fed’s hand. The Fed meets June 19, July 19, and September something. They don’t meet in August. These next two meetings are important. I believe the SPX will find a temporary bottom right around this first Fed meeting in 2 weeks, for a 3% decline. If the Fed comes out with a surprise rate cut in June or July this could send the market higher (not much of surprise as probabilities are now at 80% for a rate cut in September but would still be a surprise). If the Fed does nothing I’d expect more selling & finding new support lower. If SPX continues selling after June 19, I’d look for support between 2550 & 2475. I don’t think the Federal Reserve would let the SPX get that low again though...
SP:SPXShort
by Hayekian_Fibonacci
1