[TVIX] Punctured Lowest Support Twice, Held Above... SPX 4k!I've been shit-posting all over about waiting for Friday so looks like tomorrow is the big day!
I've clearly been a bit early to the party here but man, all indicators holding strong B)
RVI/RSI primed to pop. Love that ADX spike!
Market buying edged up (TRIN) but still soft buy zone... zombie bull.
Spxshort
[TVIX] SPX New Local High... TVIX Sideways? New Support ChannelsAlright guys another successful day!
But wait... SPX set new highs!? AHHH time to meltdown and unload everything!
Not exactly.
New SPX highs should be followed by new VIX lows and ESPECIALLY 2x TVIX lows in a proper bull market. This has yet to retest May 12th low and is sitting halfway between two major supports and just under the diagonal support and within the middle horizontal support channel.
Do notice that we're quickly approaching the yellow resistance line and wedging into a breakout point, which is really just perfect timing here as it aligns with Thursday and I'm anticipating the market will go south Thursday and Friday on release of devastating fundamental news.
MACD is teasing the trend change, RVI can be an indicator for RSI (RSI shooting up means price is spiking) and it crossed above RSI on May 27th and has since gained some divergence on the one week time scale here.
I guess tomorrow we'll limp to a brand new high with the last Retail FOMO stragglers blowing a bunch of money and hating on us poor data nerd folk before it all comes crashing down.
Happy harvesting!
[SPX] ADX x DPO SELL Cross, Hugging to Support, Wait for Friday!Haters already comin outta the woodwork! That means we're on to something guys B).
Apparently setting a new high by a few points is proof that this market is about to sky rocket and all the bears are big, poor losers... oh poor me :(.
Very interesting data point we have there. Lets see how the hopes and dreams investing strategy works out for ya lol.
Living within the lazy, manipulative constructs of 'Bears vs Bulls' will always put you at a disadvantage in stock trading. It's like 'us vs. them' sports mentality and conservative American mentality and Wall Street uses it to part investors with their money in the same way sports teams part fans with their money.
Anyway, we got a ADX x DPO sell cross on about one week time scale. Usually DPO is moving down and they cross in the middle, here DPO continued it's rise too with a sharp, clear breakthrough.
How do we know it's sell and not buy? Because the high DPO positioning and downward ROC trend.
Look at RSI and RVI, pretty strong sell. RVI can function as a leading indicator for RSI and continued ROC trend decline and RSI incline with RVI already under RSI strengthens our case every day it's not broken.
MACD resistance still holding steady, how is that not terrifying for bulls? It's looking for a trend change too.
The weirdest here is the TRIN which I forget what it means but basically 2.0 and higher is panic selling behavior and we flipped from panic selling to soft buying, still not very encouraging here. Has BULL TRAP written all over that shit.
Wait for Friday people! As always best of luck bulls ;).
[SPX] Boxed In! Your Move Fed... Indicators Holding Strong!Price got caught exactly at my predicted resistance with the wick just popping above.
Tomorrow is big decision day and there's just not enough supporting data to decide to go up.
Let's see what Big Money and the Fed can pull out of their asses. They were hoping to spark a final FOMO rally by now but Retail is too exhausted and motherf%*king riots man, holy shit, I'm a political junkie and I didn't see this kind of thing happening for at least another decade. Just wild.
Probably see a trend change here with the price at this convergence.
ADX continued bounce off it's support. DPO clinged to support. ADX crossing up through the DPO is a buy signal, the steeper the better.
RSI, RVI and ROC all signaling sell more strongly.
MACD histogram right at the resistance line, another indicator signaling turning point.
Almost harvest time :).
SPY The Big ShortElder impulse, 10 day
Enjoy......
Note that it trades below the 10 day on elder impulse red until a monthly candle turns green (circled in yellow)
Targeting 264 for 3qtr2020
[SPX x DIX/GEX 2Y] Looks Like a Giant Cresting Wave!Got a tip that led me here: squeezemetrics.com
Then had some fun playing with lines: ibb.co
I don't put too much weight in any given strategy, preferring to average them all against fundamentals but holy shit was I surprised when after diving in from scratch to map the empty chart, it actually turned into a terrifying, accelerating and rising wave that's looking like it's f*cking cresting and about to crash first week of June.
So wild!
I hope all the Bulls are having fun picking up the seashells from the receding ocean...
[SPX] Let the Drop Begin, 2100 x August... POC Weighing HeavyI can't lay off this damn SPX man.
Here's my drop map for June/July.
I'll think we'll touch 2100 before July end if not blow through it a bit, def by August end.
There's not enough momentum to keep this afloat much longer.
[TVIX] 2nd Bar Today Kissed Top of Channel + New Support ChannelI guess lets wait for next week and see if I'm right.
So far I had expected it to raise a lot higher by now. I think by ramp projection is a week or two early maybe but I still think we've seen the bottom until we cross the red-line at this point.
Not much to do but wait. I'm loaded, plenty of room if it spikes to 3200 too. Probably worst case before crash, if somehow people can swing another upwave amidst the shitstorm of economic news dropping next week.
Good luck bulls... I say good luck.
TVIX is not just a bet on a market crash, but the side hedge is volatility and no way next week will be smooth.
[TVIX] Zoomed In 4H Up Channel... Tick-Tock, Tick-TockWalking right into the kill zone.
POC should pull the price up along with this news cycle turmoil for the next couple weeks (starting tomorrow guys!).
Here's the treasure map:
[SPX] Indicators Screaming SELL... Ignore at Your Own Peril!MACD looking to flip.
ADX looking to flip.
DPO very high.
RSI as VPT screaming sell.
RSI and RVI screaming sell.
SMAs weighing heavy on market and indicating a sell.
POC under price and signaling sell.
Really hard to make any kind of bull case from technicals here.
This is my last rundown on SPX before the creash probably (will start tomorrow and continue through mid-June).
I'll be busy riding the TVIX for the next two weeks :).
[SPX 1W Trend Analysis] Oh Boy... This Looks Much Worse Was inspired by @cryptocarlsontrading who made a very compelling 1W short case here:
www.tradingview.com
Wanted to build on that with my own 1W breakdown.
As a swing trader sometimes I get caught too much in my 4h world and it can be very instructive to zoom out and see the bigger picture.
After doing this exercise, I'm even more convinced of the coming June crash.
Just look at those parallel trend channels compared to the support. We're definitely retesting 1W green support in June with some risk of breaking and holding under that for a few days (although given the consistency here I think there is more chance for a bounce off of it).
Points:
1. That MACD is horrifying. Most likely the histogram and MACD line won't even go high enough to retest channel resistance before shooting back down.
2. The price barely crossed the half way point of the current trend channel, expect it to fall back and stick at channel support a bit, won't retest channel resistance. Volume Profile will support it pretty well.
3. Very slippery Volume Profile slope once it holds below current channel, expect it to slide all the way down to bottom support of new channel (4th yellow line)
4. Once it breaks that expect it to test the green support before rebounding for good and growth can continue at a more normalized, properly priced trajectory.
5. RSI: New up channel is steeper than previous up channel, likely will stick to blue down channel here.
6. OBV: Seems like a decent sell signal trigger here once it breaks below trendline.
7. VPT as RSI: Very strong sell signal.
8. POC is below price, it is right at the price on the 4h, this is bearish as well.
[SPX] SMA Trend Analysis - Beautiful 10 & 200 & POC ConvergenceAlrighty, long term I'm looking to build some kind of SMA trend and volume analysis model that could provide useful signals based on the angle of the trend lines and the POC and this is the start.
Like if you wish to support my work!
10 & 50 moving in parallel about ~7 degrees below the 200.
100 moving ~15 degrees below the 200.
POC is converging beautifully right with the 10 and 200 strongly signaling something is reaching a breaking point either up or down.
All fundamentals and technicals pointing to down. All hopes and dreams and FOMO pointing to up.
The market cannot be equal in value today as in January 2019. That is fundamental insanity.
So this will almost certainly be a breaking point downward.
Anyway, I digress!
Let's note here that the...
200 is trending 12 degrees below the POC
100 - 23 below
50 - 16 below
10 - 16 below
Lets call the average of these four Market Gravity POC. That gives out a Downward Gravity of 16.75.
Here's my first shot at reading the tea leaves:
I would say the 100 moving at such a steep degree against the 200 and twice the degree of the 10 and 50 is an extremely bearish short term signal. And the tandem trend of the 10 and 50 as bearish as well.
The fact that the Market Gravity POC runs below the 10, 50 and 200 is also a very bearish signal.
I would say the case is made AT LEAST for the market retesting March lows if not a medium to high degree of downside potential beyond that.
Where you at?
[SPX] Crash Imminent... Steady... Steady... DROP!My original SPX idea still holding beautifully.
This thing is wound up beyond belief!
Don't expect the market to crash next week but the slide should begin and if all these trend channels hold for another 10 candles (I'm on the 4h), then it's definitely going down the first and second week of June.
Get your shorts in this week!
$2940 Must Hold! (SPX)We did have a surprising move from the spx500 as it broke above old Resistance of $2940 and currently sit at $2951.
We want to see the old Resistance become new support for a trend continuation upward for the bulls.
The daily, 3 day and weekly are all green. Which can help validate how strong this trend reversal is.
I'd look to find a long term position on a short below 2940 or a long 2950, will play tight stoploss.
If support cracks this could be a fakeout and return with a massive selloff.
Perfect compression play setup with our Crossover strategy.
As of now we are bullish.
Time to get aggressive on the spx500.
Have a blessed day! 😁
🥇MLT | PRO TRADERS
[SPX] Prepare for the Reckoning! June is Gonna Be Ugly.Looks like a triple top short setup. Fundamentals point to a small crash in June and that will likely trigger programmatic selloffs that crash this beast.
Institutional investors are expecting a crash by a wide margin while retail investors are FOMOing at the mouth. We won't be back here for another year at least.
Green lines are support but decent chance it'll plumb new lows for a few days at least. Fed and vaccine hype can't keep this thing afloat forever on it's own.
It's time SPX correlates with economy and society again.Let’s take a step back. What do we see on the bigger picture?
Early and late 2019, we saw two big bull runs after a downwards correction lasting a month.. Both bull runs lasted roughly 5 months.
What did we see in those five months? Very quickly declining buy volumes.
What did we see after there where too little buyers left? A correction downwards lasting roughly a month. This is also what we saw in February/March 2020.
The huge drop in February was enormous and went very quick. The correction upwards, went much slower. And we know: Impulse takes more price than time, correction takes more time than price. And that is what we are seeing here, ladies and gentleman.
So we have a very strong (but relatively slow compared to the drop) correction upwards, taking a lot of price(but even more time), where we see the volume is declining much faster than the strong upward moves in 2019.
We are having a holiday in many countries now, and a Friday is waiting for us. If, and I say IF, this week would close weak, we could close below the green trendline (support for long time, seems to be resistance now), below the 50 Weekly EMA (and 100 Daily EMA) and potentially below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 2935. Doesn’t that sound bearish? Given this graph?
It starts to look like a good moment for correction downwards. Let the SPX reconnect with the economy and society again, rather than being a de-correlated product of speculation. If not now, then soon.
And no, it’s not different this time.
Bearish Bat/Test 50MA Support Flipped Resistance/Oversold So my bearish bat is still holding for the moment. Looking at the weekly it is likely we will test the 50MA as support flipped to resistance. This will also coincide with overbought conditions either this week or next. Then we will head down.
Quickpost: SPY at the Weekly Bollinger BaselineThe Bollingerband traditionally has a lookback of 20 periods, and that coincides with a common moving average length of 20 (sometimes 21). SPY price action has gapped up and stopped right at that baseline, or the 20W SMA. This is very much a do or die circumstance for the market. If the baseline asserts itself as resistance we can expect a very painful recession. If somehow the baseline is confirmed as support we have the much promiced V shape recovery
Below the prices action we have the OBV & EMAS. The OBV has been consolidating below the 100W, which isn't a good sign for the bulls, and the 20W is looking like it will cross the 100W bearishly. This is an extra-ordinarily bearish set of circumstances to play out.
Critical Move For The Markets. (SPX)We are watching this compression point currently under this horizontal Resistance level.
Paying attention to the upward support that we are approaching after breaking our first price average as the candle crosses over the black line.
We hold that as bearish movement.
Would like to see it crack and have a nice Retracement.
50% short. Playing roughly 3% stop-loss, we will stay on top of it and see how she wants to move.
Have an awesome trading week! Cheers. ✌😁✌
