US Stock In Play: $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Index)S&P 500 is overly extended from its short term trend channel establishment. looking to do a short at break of day low and size my stop at day high.
Spxshort
SPX500 2021-2022 PredictionA prediction , or forecast, is a statement about a future event. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge.
Although future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible
SPX500SPX500 narrowly missed my 1.618 W3 TP by 60 base appoints or there about, then began what we are now currently in and I am calling W4 and expect another ABC correction here to lead us into W5 which can break above 5,000 EOY
SPX500 Rangebound againS&P500 had another nice day of price action but still no direction. Tested the lows early and tested the highs late. Selling the rallies and buying the dips until a direction is revealed.
SPX500USDIt's likely that we will see a little bit of a pullback as we are at the top of the range. The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday before turning around to form a bit of a shooting star. The candlestick of course is very bearish, and it is worth noting that the NASDAQ 100 has formed something along the lines of a “evening star.” That of course is a negative sign, suggesting that perhaps stocks are going to roll over. To the downside, the uptrend line continues offer support, right along with the 50 day EMA. Beyond that, the 4500 level before they are also offer support, so I think it is only a matter of time before we see some type of bounce. We have been in an uptrend, and I think that does not change anytime soon, so therefore it is only a matter of time before buyers get in on dips and take advantage of “cheap stocks.” After all, this has been a bit of a “buy on the dip” type of market for ages, especially as the Federal Reserve continues to offer cheap money for traders to indulge in. Despite the fact that there has been talk of tapering later this year, the reality is that there is no real sense of them raising interest rates anytime soon.
If we were to turn around a break above the top of the shooting star, then the market is likely to go looking towards the 4600 level, as the market tends to move in 200 point increments. After that, it will be interesting to see where we go next, but it is very possible it could be 4800. There is always the negative turn of events, and that would be something that I would play via puts, because flat-out shorting the S&P 500 has been a very dangerous thing to do for ages, and as a result it is difficult to imagine a scenario where I would actually do that.
You look at the chart and you could see a plainly carved out up trending channel, so as long as that remains in effect, it tells you where you are going to be a buyer and perhaps take a significant amount of profits along the way. Because of this, as we are at the top of the range is likely that we will see a little bit of a pullback.
SP500 - SHORT; Nothing but Shorts (SELL!!) here!A ~25% decline from here should be rather quick and uneventful. However, such a decline is likely to be just the first leg on a long road to a full ~70% decline by the end of this full cycle. - Which would be nothing more than a garden variety return to the Historic Norm ! The same goes for all US Indexes and those who are historically informed (or reviewed the evidence, presented in virtually every single recent post) should not be surprised at all.
The Carry Trade Currencies - and equivalents relative to the VIX post;
Short S&P 500Hello everyone, one of my best analyzes. We are near the end of a cycle, it should end before 2027. The fibonacci retracement follows the crash of 1929, which is also the start of the uptrend. We can see that we have only exited the yellow channel twice. Once from 1997 to 2001 and again from December 2020 to today. The bullish trends inside the bullish channel end when the white support line is broken. The second bullish base lasts about 70% of the time of the first, if we project that the third bullish base should last around 6500 days. When we have been above the 2 years * 1.2 EMA there has been a decline each time, we are currently above that moving average. The RSI: We can see that every time we hit or cross the 77, it follows a decline. Crashes are preceded by a bearish divergence, there is currently an unconfirmed bearish divergence. The crashes lasted 2250 days and 3100 days, each time we returned to the previous level of fibonacci and the channel support. If this is repeated we can expect a drop of more than 35% from the current level.
$SPX - memeline shortMemeline supporting uptrend has broke
Backtest of underside of SR
Seems a good bet especially with growing inflation concerns
Close through the SR box would make me re-evaluate and likely close though!
NDX/SPY and NDX/DJI looks like the NASDAQ is popping a bubbleIntroduction
For my adult life the advice has been to buy just by ETFs. And for the last decade or so the advise has also to been buy the NASDAQ ETF because it over-performs the other indices. It seems that advice is on the precipice of ending due to some long term indicators on the verge of flipping their switches.
The MFV VSTOP is set to 3x and right now price action has gone below the stop. IF we confirm below the arrow stays in place and right next to it we get that black dot which means the move is confirmed. Not shown to keep the main chart clean is the VSTOP on the current time frame which has already flipped bearish.
Price action is also leaning heavily on the 20 month SMA which, due to its use in a variety of other indicators is rather important.
The Chart also declares that we have a lot of divergence on some popular indicators
indicators
I could almost exactly use the same write up for NDX/DJI but this chart has the RSI with a double top instead of clear bearish divergence.
A look at NDX, SPY and DJI to try and guestimate what this dump could look like is very bearish indeed. The dotcom bubble burst was a historical economic event and it seems its ghost has come to haunt us. SPY and DJI will be less affected by this downtrend but will still take significant beatings over the next coupe of years. The fact that they don't go down as much means they are less likely to get a playable/dupe-able bull trap
Here is a replay of the dotcom pop on NDX with my general thoughts. It is on the three day with the daily BB in orange and the weekly in blue. There will be a lot of technical bounces on the way down and a put/short strategy seems very advisable.
My Conclusions
I am not going to go on at length about the dollar or inflation in consumer staples or the wallstreetbets effect. It looks pretty bad out there when you compare the most bullish US index to its brothers and that is generally bearish for the broader market. I am not a financial advisor and I don't have a CMT... purely self taught. But I am going to look to short in one way or another these bearish continuation patterns and I might even take some opportunistic logs when the price action first hits the weekly bollinger band. There is going to be a lot of pain over the next couple of years but there is nothing moral about being bad with money, or losing money.
Here is TSLA based off of my linked idea. Plenty of chances to swing trade in this dumpster fire of an equity if I can get some indicators to back up the TA. The main chart suggest we will get a multi-month bull trap. The chart where I replayed the NDX bubble burst also suggest a multi-month bull trap. Even though the macro situation is bearish you still have to be nibble enough to deal with the rallies however you decide. My other linked idea is how I potentially see BTC affected by the everything bubble
SPX Intraday Week 18 UpdateI think a minor correction is starting, generally considered three waves. You can count five in here but I don't have enough time for that right now. Risk management is essential in this choppy defensive market condition. The five wave obviously finished at 4220 last week. The buying strength just isn't present at these levels. A wise man once told me the five wave is the riskiest to trade. Manage accordingly.
UVXY 1D KISS Test
Holding UVXY next 10 days could be the best or worst decision you've made in terms of hedging for volatility . Diamond Reversal Or Diamond Continuation H&S target $3. 01 or less. Otherwise diamond reversal should occur.
5 day MACD is bullish
Just remember no one gets any awards for being the first to recognize a decent short op and take it. It's not going to manifest as quickly as you think to $10. However, it should recover to this by the latest March 2022.
Short term target is $5.27 from previous analysis with $5.75 upside.
If Head and Shoulders configuration plays out $3. 01 or less in May.
SPX has found its top As you can see based on this chart, SPX has fallen anywhere from 2 to 6 percent every time it touches its top trend line. The "further down" we get in this channel, the bigger drops we have. This only means logically that this next drop should be the biggest shown on this chart. Spx has yet to have a candle close above the top trend line. If we do see it hold then a new high would be imminent. I see this to have a nice drop back down to around the bottom trend line, to the 3975 zone.
Look At This! Please.An extremely rare pattern for an extremely rare time in the U.S.
Ending Expanding Diagonal patterns are not seen very often.
Not a natural looking pattern because the wild price swings aren't natural.
You know what else isn't natural?
The M1 money supply increase from 4 trillion to OVER 18 TRILLION in 2020. They increase the money supply by over 400%!!
Why do you think Bitcoin and blockchain is getting so much support?
Because people are realizing this ship is SINKING!!!
Why do you think decentralized finance is manifesting? You think that's random? No!! Things are created when someone see's a need and the world reaffirms the value in it through their belief and investment.
A break back below 3,800 would be a major sell signal for me and a break below 3,200 indicates the end of the bull market.
Not financial advice. Just what I'm seeing and what makes sense to me based on the data, wave counts, and price action.
I appreciate feedback on my wave counts though, so feel free to comment that I'm an idjit if you want.
2021 is like 73s2021 is like 73s. let's see how this play. if it went well, buy dips at bottom if you can.
1. The four most expensive words in investing are: 'This time it's different. '” So said Sir John Templeton, the legendary investor and mutual fund pioneer. The phrase contains tremendous wisdom, but only if you truly understand what it means. ... “This time it's different” has become a ubiquitous phrase...
2. we will see increasing inflation & Covid case worldwide rising this year. they printed many trillions for check stimulus also fourth stimulus check again? also seems coronavirus won't go anywhere. you can see that Covid cases is still rising on worldometers site. Imagine 1-10 million cases daily? it's not great for economy & stock market. seems vaccine is still processing but not completely at all.
3. some investors will say " dollar is in bubble but stock market won't go down" they say same thing in 73s. that's not how this works. dollar inflation makes stock market volatility & shock..
4. The Buffett Indicator at All-Time Highs Is This Cause for Concern?. it shows 223% radio of market value GDP, 79% higher than long term trend line not internet bubble.
seems too higher.
5. 2021. many poor & middle bought stocks & meme from check stimulus while rich people buying at same time. this doesn't age well. "BUY, BUY, BUY" poor getting rich, rich getting richer? nah.
that's not how this works. 2008 & 2020 was different because market was bottom but 2021 Is top not bottom. that's why. Illuminati stays. in 2030, we will see 0.1% top getting richer ever while poor & middle bottom.
my prediction could be wrong or right.
Thank you. Sorry For My Bad English. Enjoy.
EUR USD - Imbalance path is clearHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Euro USD monthly imbalances
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here.
Here is the link to the privatised idea
EUR USD Short
Euro - Weekly imbalances
The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone.
Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning.
snapshot
EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side
Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
snapshot
US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first
U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence.
Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the
Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation
snapshot
Mirrors Edge
EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours.
With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated.
snapshot
Correlation:
USD CHF - Green
Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here.
snapshot
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You know(!!) you are in a bubble ...... When:
The funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front;
Every single decile of S&P 500 components is at record valuation extremes; www.hussmanfunds.com
The amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!);
In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base;
The current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!";
In an economy with $11 trillion in corporate debt at $58 trillion in equity market capitalization;
When U.S. Market Capitalization exceeds 263% of U.S. GDP (the norm, not the low, being 78%);
Anyway, this is likely a Double Top here.
SPX 3943 + 0.1 % SHORT IDEA * REVERSAL PETTERNS & PRICE ACTIONHey everyone
Hope everyone had a good weekend, new week new opportunities. Here's a look at the S&P 500 from the 4H chart.
* The index has been trading in an ascending channel, looking for reversal pattens to capitalize on a move with the bears.
* We are trading at the formation of a doule top so should this pattern hold looking for a move with the bears.
* entries on lower time frames for marging and less risk.
* follow your entry rules on entries
* significant moves with the bulls change the plan.
lets see how it goes.
AS ALWAYS PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT AND A LOT OF PATIENCE & AGAIN many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules.
HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN...
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ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES
RISK-MANAGEMENT
PERIOD - SWING TRADE
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If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
US Market Technicals Ahead (16 Feb – 19 Feb 2021)U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps in the holiday shortened week ahead and while earnings season is starting to wind down there are still some big names left to report. On the economic calendar, U.S. retail sales figures and industrial production for January will be the main events to watch. Market participants will also be closely following Thursday’s hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the recent trading turmoil in GameStop ($GME) and other heavily shorted stocks and bitcoin is closing in on $50K.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) continues its February gain with +1.27% for the week. This rally further established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,941 level.
At the current junction, $SPX exhibition of a Bearish Divergence pattern that was highlighted last week remains in play; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870.
1. Stimulus
President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package will move to the next stage during the week, with the House Budget Committee pulling all the components into a single piece of legislation.
Biden’s proposed spending package, coming on top of $4 trillion enacted by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, would have important consequences for a global economy that is slowly and unevenly recovering after last year suffering its worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged G7 finance leaders to provide more fiscal support to promote a robust and lasting recovery, telling them “the time to go big is now.”
2. Earnings
The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($QQQ) closed at record highs on Friday as expectations for new fiscal aid from Washington to help the U.S. economy recover bolstered risk appetite. Investors will be looking ahead to earnings from Walmart ($WMT) on Thursday for insights on the strength of consumer spending.
Investors will also be looking at earnings reports from hotels, cruise lines and other businesses that have been badly hit by the pandemic for indications of which could be the first to bounce back as it recedes.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings ($HLT) and Hyatt Hotels ($H) are expected to release their results on Wednesday, followed by Marriott ($MAR), Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) and TripAdvisor ($TRIP) on Thursday.
3. Economic data
The highlights of the U.S. economic calendar will be data on retail sales and industrial production for January, which are expected to show that the economy got off to a strong start in 2021.
Investors will also be watching Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims with the recovery in the labor market remaining slow. Labor market woes strengthen the case for President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion recovery package, which is under consideration in the U.S. Congress.
Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due out on Wednesday.
SP500 & Channel.As you can see on these charts-the price is once again beating the channel resistance (purple dotted line). Perhaps the price will have to adjust to the level of $1950, equal to the Fibonacci correction of 0.618%. There is another more positive and desirable scenario for everyone - if there is very good news, the price will be able to gain a foothold above the purple line and go even higher-up to the pink dotted line.
Shooting Star forming W chartHi everyone,
It is too early to confirm it but if this candle close like this next friday on the W chart in Shooting Star or Gravestone we will have something to worry about.
Best to you !
ONLY CASE FOR A GLOBAL DEPRESSIONthis is not what i'm expecting but , if global economy is really going into a severe depression phase , then stock market can run for more unrealistic valuations before it happens.
