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Liquidity sources are drying upOn Friday, the S&P 500 in the last part of the session began to fall with some force. And today, we have seen that it has fallen and opened below the support zone at 4.998 The question we have to ask ourselves is: What does this mean? Does it mean it will continue to fall? Has a roof formed? Last Friday, the options contracts expired. This meant the disappearance of the gamma, and meant the disappearance of a source of liquidity, that is, the money coming from the dealers to cover the positions they had open. That money has disappeared, therefore, we must consider that a source of liquidity is missing. Until we see how the gamma is situated, at what levels it stabilizes and what the behavior of investors is in the options market, it is reasonable to think that we will witness temporary fragility at least during the first days of this week. And what does the chart tell us? This morning it has pierced the support in the 4.998 zone. This is a symptom of weakness, of short-term fragility. What 2 options are there? If it now rebounds and is not able to exceed the 5.000 level, it will most likely deploy a new downward leg. And if it rebounds, and moves sideways above 5.000, it is most likely that the price will try to return to the high zone. Now, 5.050 is a wall. It was already before the expiration of the options contracts, and it is even more so now. Therefore, maximum rise is in the 5.050 zone. If it fails to break above 5.000, we have support between 4.941 and 4.922 As long as the S&P 500 remains above that level, I will maintain a bullish bias.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by tradingconmike
SPX500 Elliott Waves Analysis (midterm Expectations)Hello friends. Please support my work by clicking the LIKE button👍(If you liked). Also i will appreciate for ur activity. Thank you! Everything on the chart. Previous scenario with leading diagonal was invalidated, I switched to an alternative scenario that we formed wave ii in the form of a flat (3-3-5) and now I am waiting for continuation of growth, with a minimum target of 4300 to confirm the current growth, we must get a five-waves upward impulse Entry: market and lower TP: 4300 and 4500 after first target move ur stop in breakeven SL: ~3600 RR: 1 to 2 Good luck everyone! Follow me on TRADINGView, if you don't want to miss my next analysis or signals. It's not financial advice. Dont Forget, always make your own research before to trade my ideas! Open to any questions and suggestions.
SP:SPXLong
by trytofeelpositive
SPX500 Elliott Waves Analysis (midterm Expectations)Hello friends. Please support my work by clicking the LIKE button👍(If you liked). Also i will appreciate for ur activity. Thank you! Everything on the chart. My Main scenario that we forming leading diagonal, where right now we're in wave of iv, after that i will wait final upward movement in zone 4200-4300 before starting correction. Good luck everyone! Follow me on TRADINGView, if you don't want to miss my next analysis or signals. It's not financial advice. Dont Forget, always make your own research before to trade my ideas! Open to any questions and suggestions.
SP:SPXLong
by trytofeelpositive
4
SP500 is drawing a very nasty pictureAs the title says, SP500 is drawing a very nasty bearish picture. We can see from the posted chart, that after the low from mid-June, the index started to reverse, and once it has broken above 4100 horizontal resistance I was inclined to think that the correction that started at the beginning of the year is over. However, after it reached 4.3k zone resistance given by the descending trend line, instead of a small correction and resumption to the up move, the index has broken back under, a break marked by an immense 200 points bearish engulfing (around 5%). This type of price action is a clear indication that bears are not done yet and more losses are around the corner. At the time of writing, SP500 is trading at 3900, exactly in the confluence support zone and, in my opinion, this level will fall soon. In an optimistic scenario, a rebound can follow now, but this should be used as an opportunity to sell in anticipation of a break. The target can be the 3600 low, for now though... SP500 is very probable to drop under. P.S: Only sustained buying power above 4100 would change my bearish outlook
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
20
[SPX 1W Trend Analysis] Oh Boy... This Looks Much Worse Was inspired by @cryptocarlsontrading who made a very compelling 1W short case here: www.tradingview.com Wanted to build on that with my own 1W breakdown. As a swing trader sometimes I get caught too much in my 4h world and it can be very instructive to zoom out and see the bigger picture. After doing this exercise, I'm even more convinced of the coming June crash. Just look at those parallel trend channels compared to the support. We're definitely retesting 1W green support in June with some risk of breaking and holding under that for a few days (although given the consistency here I think there is more chance for a bounce off of it). Points: 1. That MACD is horrifying. Most likely the histogram and MACD line won't even go high enough to retest channel resistance before shooting back down. 2. The price barely crossed the half way point of the current trend channel, expect it to fall back and stick at channel support a bit, won't retest channel resistance. Volume Profile will support it pretty well. 3. Very slippery Volume Profile slope once it holds below current channel, expect it to slide all the way down to bottom support of new channel (4th yellow line) 4. Once it breaks that expect it to test the green support before rebounding for good and growth can continue at a more normalized, properly priced trajectory. 5. RSI: New up channel is steeper than previous up channel, likely will stick to blue down channel here. 6. OBV: Seems like a decent sell signal trigger here once it breaks below trendline. 7. VPT as RSI: Very strong sell signal. 8. POC is below price, it is right at the price on the 4h, this is bearish as well.
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
[SPX] SMA Trend Analysis - Beautiful 10 & 200 & POC ConvergenceAlrighty, long term I'm looking to build some kind of SMA trend and volume analysis model that could provide useful signals based on the angle of the trend lines and the POC and this is the start. Like if you wish to support my work! 10 & 50 moving in parallel about ~7 degrees below the 200. 100 moving ~15 degrees below the 200. POC is converging beautifully right with the 10 and 200 strongly signaling something is reaching a breaking point either up or down. All fundamentals and technicals pointing to down. All hopes and dreams and FOMO pointing to up. The market cannot be equal in value today as in January 2019. That is fundamental insanity. So this will almost certainly be a breaking point downward. Anyway, I digress! Let's note here that the... 200 is trending 12 degrees below the POC 100 - 23 below 50 - 16 below 10 - 16 below Lets call the average of these four Market Gravity POC. That gives out a Downward Gravity of 16.75. Here's my first shot at reading the tea leaves: I would say the 100 moving at such a steep degree against the 200 and twice the degree of the 10 and 50 is an extremely bearish short term signal. And the tandem trend of the 10 and 50 as bearish as well. The fact that the Market Gravity POC runs below the 10, 50 and 200 is also a very bearish signal. I would say the case is made AT LEAST for the market retesting March lows if not a medium to high degree of downside potential beyond that. Where you at?
SP:SPXShort
by ProfitHarvest
8