S&P 500 Index intraday trend analysis for April 01, 2025The intraday trend confirmed Sell signals with a stop loss at 5650. It may take support at 5613 and 5575 on the lower side. The support levels are in degrees of Square of 9.
Spxsignals
S&P500 during TRUMP's 2018 vs 2025 TRADE WAR.The S&P500 index (SPX) has started off the year in disappointing fashion as since mid-February the market has corrected by over -10% and of course almost all of it is attributed to the trade tariffs imposed by President Trump. As you know, this is not the first time Trump goes into a Trade War. The 1st has started in January 2018 when the first tariff announcements were made against China.
We can say that Trump's 2nd Trade War officially started on March 03 2025, with tariff implementations against Mexico, Canada and China. As you can see, the build up to both Trade Wars has been identical both in structural price count and in 1W RSI terms.
By the week of February 05 2018, the index has dropped by a little over -11%, hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and rebounded, while the 1W RSI formed a Lower Low. We can claim that this are roughly the levels we are now. That drop started a Megaphone pattern, which ran through all of 2018. The ultimate bottom for this Megaphone Trade War pattern came in December 24 2018 on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Right now, the 1W RSI is almost on Lower Lows while crossing below its 1W MA50 and what remains to be seen is if it will hit its 0.236 Fib to form the bottom of the Megaphone or will rebound now.
Do you think Trump's 2nd Trade War will keep the market highly volatile within a Megaphone or will plunge it even more?
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S&P500 Do you really want to bet against the market??We have done a number of multi-decade analyses on both S&P500 (SPX) and Dow Jones over the years. Especially in times of high volatility, such as the current ones amidst the tariff wars, the long-term macro-economic analysis always helps to keep the most objective perspective.
And as you see in the wide picture of SPX's 35-year Cycles, the current 3-month correction is nothing but a technical pull-back that justifies the rule. The 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) tends to be the main Support during the Bull Phase and then it breaks, the Bear Cycle starts that drops even below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
Right now, assuming the current Cycle that started after the early 2009 Housing Crisis bottom, will be as long as the previous one at least, we are headed for the 0.5 Time Fibonacci level (blue) and are marginally above the 0.382 Horizontal Fibonacci level (black). This is the exact kind of behavior we had on the previous Cycle with the 1990 pull-back, which as expected approached the 1M MA50 and rebounded. In 1954, the index was again headed for the 0.5 Time Fib and was on the 0.382 Horizontal Fib.
It is obvious that the degree of symmetry among the Cycles is remarkable and as long as the 1M MA50 holds, any pull-back should historically be bought. As we head towards the 0.786 Time Fib though, the danger of staying in the market gets extremely high but as mentioned, a break below the 1M MA50 is the confirmed sell signal.
This shows that despite the recent volatility, buying is still heavily favored. Are you willing to bet against the market at this stage?
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SP500- Don't be fooled by yesterday's pumpThe markets reacted strongly to Jerome Powell's latest commentary, sparking a notable rally. However, traders should be cautious before assuming this marks the beginning of a new uptrend. While there has been a slight shift in market structure, the broader trend remains intact. Overlooking the strength of the next resistance level could prove to be a costly mistake.
The Big Picture: S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis
Examining the TRADENATION:US500 posted daily chart, the key question is: has the trend truly reversed? While a green-bodied candle signals some bullish momentum, SP500 remains below critical resistance levels. Notably, it closed beneath what I call the "Do or Die" zone—an area that aligns with prior lows and, more importantly, the daily 200 SMA. This suggests that what we’re seeing could be a lower high forming within the broader downtrend.
Hourly Outlook:
On the hourly chart, we see a strong reversal from 5500, but the move appears corrective rather than impulsive. It seems to be forming an ABC-style correction, with the market currently in wave C. Calculating the potential top of wave C, we find it aligns perfectly with a key resistance level and the 200-day SMA.
Conclusion:
While we may see some upside heading into the end of the week, I believe this rally will be short-lived. Once SP retests the broken support—now acting as resistance—I expect the downward trend to resume, with my target remaining at 5200 (as previously discussed).
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
S&P500 Channel Down broken. Will the 4H MA50 sustain an uptrend?The S&P500 index (SPX) broke above both its 1-month Channel Down and 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and more importantly is so far keeping the price action sideways above it.
This is an indication that it may flip it from previously a Resistance, into Support. The signal for this bullish trend reversal came first (and a very timely one) by the 4H RSI, which formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows on March 13, a clear Bullish Divergence. That turned out to be the bottom.
Now that bullish break-out has been confirmed, we expect a quick test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Our short-term Target is 5900.
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S&P500 Strong Support cluster on the 2-year Channel Up.S&P500 (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up that has made the market recover from the 2022 Inflation Crisis, taking it to a new All Time High (ATH).
The recent 4-week decline however has been an aggressive one and rightly so has sparked heightened fear to investors, especially considering the trade war fundamentals. Technically, the index just broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching the bottom of this long-term Channel Up, a development that in the eyes of short-term traders is disastrous.
On the long-term though, this is a very strong Support level as the market seems to be repeating the Secondary Channel Up (blue) of February - October 2023. The end of this was also an aggressive correction which broke below both the 1W MA50 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level temporarily before starting a massive Bullish Leg. Even the 1W RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar, despite the current price action being more aggressive.
Interestingly enough, they both declined by at least -10%, so if we see the current week closing in green and by the next starting to recover, it is likely to see a similar Bullish Leg to test the -0.5 Fibonacci extension as the April 01 2024 Top did. That would give us a 6900 long-term Target, which would be a +24.75% rise from the current low, exactly identical with the rise from the April 19 2024 to February 19 2025.
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Bearish Outlook for US500: Watching 5,200 SupportAfter testing support at the end of February, the US500 fell below this key level at the start of March, signaling the potential for a deeper correction.
In my view, this scenario is likely, and any rebound this week could present a good selling opportunity for speculators.
My target for this correction is the 5,200 support zone. A stabilization above 6,000 would invalidate this outlook.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
SPX Is About to Explode – Here’s What I’m WatchingSPX is at a critical level, and whichever way it breaks, the move could be huge. Here’s my take:
If we drop below 5663, I see a move down to 5534 – 5445. If that zone fails, we could head toward 5332, and if selling pressure keeps up, 5234 might be next.
But if we break above 5800, the bulls could take over, pushing to 5972, and maybe even 6149.
It’s all about reaction levels now. I’m watching these zones closely—what’s your take? Are we heading up or breaking down?
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trader Smarter Live Better
S&P500 1D MA200 hit after 16 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up since the October 12 2022 market bottom and hit yesterday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 16 months (since November 01 2023).
This is naturally an excellent technical buy entry for the long-term on this structure but is also a Higher Low for the Channel Up. At the same time, the 1D RSI has almost reached its oversold barrier (30.00), which during those 2.5 years has offered the 5 most optimal buy signals.
Given that each rally after such Higher Low has been -4% weaker than the previous, we can expect the one that is about to begin to be +20% (-4% less than the previous one of +24%). As a result, our new long-term Target is 6900.
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S&P500 Channel Up bottomed. Huge reversal expected.The S&P500 index (SPX) had been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the August 2024 Low and yesterday broke below its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 20 days. Since January 17, every such break below the 4H MA200 has been a technical buy opportunity.
This time it is even stronger as the index appears to be replicating the Channel's first price structure and more specifically Leg (d). What followed after Leg (d) bottomed, was a symmetrical with (b)-(c) +7.05% rise to form a top at (e).
The confirmation for this rise came when the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross. As a result, we are waiting for this confirmation to continue with additional buying on S&P and target 6330, which would be a +6.22% rise, symmetrical with (b)-(c).
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SPX at a Critical Decision Point: Breakout or Breakdown?The S&P 500 has been respecting this rising channel (green support and red resistance) for an extended period. Currently, price action is testing the mid-range, making this a key level for future movement.
Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation → If SPX holds above the green trendline, we could see a breakout towards the upper resistance (red trendline), targeting 7,000+.
2️⃣ Bearish Breakdown → A loss of the trendline support could trigger a correction, potentially sending price towards 5,500 or lower.
🔍 Watch for:
✔️ Confirmation of support holding (bullish signals).
✔️ Breakdown and retest of the green trendline as resistance (bearish signals).
⚡ Trade Idea:
• Long on bullish confirmation above trendline.
• Short on breakdown + retest of support as resistance.
S&P500 Remarkable 16year Time Cycles call the Top and CorrectionThe S&P500 index (SPX) just made a new All Time High (ATH) and even though it hasn't picked up the pace since the initial very aggressive post-elections rally, it is entering a bullish phase.
In fact that is technically the last rally phase of the Bull Cycle that started at the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis in October 2022. The reason behind this is the index' very reliable and consistent Time Cycle pattern that is repeated over and over again within the 16-year Channel Up that had been holding since the bottom of the 2009 Housing Crisis.
As you can see on this remarkable trading blue-print, ever since the index recovered the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into its long-term Support, strong Cycles of Growth (Bullish Leg) and correction (Bearish Leg) phases became the norm.
Using the 1M RSI specific overbought pattern, we can see that from those points onwards, the Bull Cycle usually took around 12 months before it topped (Higher High on the Channel Up) and then corrected.
This suggests that by September 2025 we may have a new peak and it would be a good idea to have sold stock investments by then. The first two 12-month rallies (2014, 2018) posted +22.10% increases while the third (2021) posted +27.80%.
As a result this gives us a potential range of 6800 - 7200 within which selling should occur, in preparation for the 2026 correction.
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S&P500 consolidation is over. Massive rally starting.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 Low. For almost the past 30 days it has been ranging sideways on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The index is no stranger to this at all.
On the contrary, this is a common Consolidation Phase that SPX has been through another 3 times within the Channel Up. As you can see, every time the index recovered from a Bearish Leg below the 1D MA50, it consolidated for around 1 month above the 1D MA50 and then resumed the Bullish Leg to complete at least a +15% rise from the bottom.
The 1D RSI sequences among all those fractals (including today's) are identical. As a result, we are preparing for a massive rally any day now, expecting a new +15% Bullish Leg to reach at least 6600.
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Monday sell Off? History May Repeat Itself...Monday Sell-Off? This Setup Says It’s Coming... | SPX Market Analysis 10 Feb 2025
Another week wraps up, and as I eye Monday’s open, I can’t shake a sense of déjà vu.
The last two weeks started with a gap down, followed by a bearish finish into the weekend.
Super Bowl Sunday is also here – Can the Kansas City Chiefs complete an unprecedented three-peat in Super Bowl 59 or will the Philadelphia Eagles gain revenge? Just like the markets, only time will tell and we will have to wait and see.
That said, Friday’s setup is setting the stage for another pop ‘n drop. The only question? What triggers the fall this time?
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📉 Mondays Have Been Bearish – Will This One Be Too?
The last two Mondays started with a gap down, followed by a bearish move into the weekend. If the pattern holds, next week could open with a bang – but not necessarily to the upside.
🏈 Super Bowl & The Markets – A Perfect Parallel?
The markets are playing their own Super Bowl showdown. Will the bulls make a comeback, or will the bears crush their hopes yet again? Just like the Chiefs vs. Eagles, we can only wait and see.
🔻 Friday’s Bearish Setup – A Warning Sign?
- V-shaped reversal entry ✅
- Bearish pulse bar confirmation ✅
- Similar daily bar pattern to the last two Fridays ✅
📌 So What Happens Monday?
If history repeats itself, we could see:
- A pop higher at the open, luring in buyers 🏹
- A sharp drop shortly after, trapping the late bulls 🕳
- A repeat of the last two weeks' bearish close 📉
🔑 Key Takeaway: The setup is there. Now we wait for the trigger.
Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? The Super Bowl Indicator suggests that if an AFC team wins, markets go bearish, but if an NFC team wins, markets go bullish.
💡 The Lesson? As ridiculous as it sounds, market psychology is a wild beast. While we don’t trade superstition, it’s always fun to see how random events get tied to stock performance.
S&P500 4H Bullish Cross signals rally to 6200.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been consolidating within a Rectangle pattern, which is coming out a MA100/200 Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame. The identical consoliation phase of July - August 2024 bottomed right after such Bullish Cross and then rebounded towards the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level before pulling back to the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) again.
With the 1D MACD about to confirm the bottom with a Bearish Cross similar to September 04 2024, we expect a strong rally to start by the end of the week and target 6200 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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S&P500 Yesterday's crash has confirmed +9.20% rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) rebounded strongly back to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), following yesterday's flash crash and recovered most than 50% of last week's Highs. The rebound took place exactly on the former Lower Highs trend-line of December's correction.
This correction was the technical Bearish Leg of the post August 05 2024 Channel Up and the rebound on it indicates that the market has turned it from Resistance to Support. Similar Lower Highs trend-lines were formed during the last two major corrections (July and April 2024) and the common feature on all (including the current one) is that a 4H Golden Cross was formed immediately after the break-out.
What followed after the Golden Cross was one last pull-back before a +9.20% rise. Yesterday's crash is most likely that pull-back. As a result, we should now be expecting a new +9.20% rise on the medium-term, with our Target being 6450.
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S&P500 smashed every Resistance on its way to 6350.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit and rebounded today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), following last week's break-out. This is the confirmed start of the technical Bullish Leg of the 6-month Channel Up along with the 1D MACD Bullish Cross.
Having made a Higher Low on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last Monday (January 13), we are expecting the standard 1.786 Fibonacci extension as the next Higher High of the pattern. That gives us a 6350 Target.
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S&P500 This is why 2025 will be Bullish.The S&P500 index (SPX) just hit its 1W MA25 (red trend-line) for the first time since the August 05 2024 Low (5 months ago). This is a major long-term Support trend-line, the first one out of a total three.
As you can see on this chart, the index has been trading within a Channel Up on the log scale ever since the bottom of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis. During this pattern, it has gone through phases of strong and extended Bull where the 1W MA25 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) offers the Support Zone and every test is a buy opportunity and when those break, the Bear phase starts, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), with the exception being of course the non-technical, once in 100 years event of the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
It is now the 1W MA25 that comes as the first major Support level and with the 1W RSI forming the same kind of Channel Down divergence as early 2014, we expect further extension of the current Bull Phase into 2025.
In fact, every Bull Cycle has either increased by roughly +100% or +62% and since the current one is way over +62%, it is fair to expect that it will pursue the +100% mark. That is currently exactly at 7000 and could be achieved by the end of 2025 as every previous Cycle Top was priced towards the end its year with a frequency of either 3 or 4 years.
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S&P500 no major pullbacks expected in 2025. Year-end Target 7200The S&P500 (SPX) has started the first week of the new year (2025) on a positive note following a red December. In fact December was only the 3rd red month of the whole 2024. Based on its 16-year Channel Up pattern, this bullish trend isn't expected to slowdown in 2025.
In fact, no major pull-backs are expected this year, as the end sequence of 2024 resembles the August 2013, which led to a very bullish 18-month period after.
As you can see, the start of the Channel Up, which was the bottom of the 2008 - 2009 U.S. Housing Crisis followed the same stages as the pattern after the March 2020 COVID bottom. The bottoms have been stage (a) with (b) being the first short-term pull-back and (c) the second, which was also a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test. It appears that we are currently on stage (d), where as explained led the way to a bullish 18-month period.
The peak of the early Channel Up pattern was on the 2.786 Fibonacci extension from the stage (c) bottom and the 18-month period ended on the 1.382 time Fib extension. If we take the same measurements on the post COVID pattern, the 1.382 time Fib extension lands on October 2026. For 2025 alone we can expect a +23.73% rise from the last red candle of (d), if the post August 2013 12-month pattern is followed, which gives us an end-of-year (2025) Target of 7200.
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S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24.
In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics.
This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday.
In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up.
The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February.
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S&P500 The new Bullish Leg has begun.The S&P500 index (SPX) has completed 4 straight green 1D candles, and is already trading above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. With its 1D RSI also reaching its MA (yellow trend-line), we view last Friday's candle as the new Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up.
This pattern is so far highly symmetrical with each of the 2 completed Legs so far, following an a-b-c-d structure. Right now we are on step (a) that is the start of the Bullish Leg. Based on this model, we are expected to approach the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up on step (b) then make the mid-Leg pull-back to (c) and then resume the uptrend for the Bullish Leg's top on (d).
We expect that to be on at least 6300, which is marginally below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, being the minimum level that each of the previous 2 Bullish Legs hit.
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S&P 500 Potentially BullishFOREXCOM:SPX500 has been in a bullish direction. We have seen it make new highs and right now it is coming for a retest on the previously broken high. I will wait for a retest and see some price action at the 5,875.2 area before going long.
Until then, fingers crossed.
Past results does not guarantee future results, please do your due diligence
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S&P500 entering a new Bull Cycle according to the Dollar IndexThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 2022 market bottom, as it recovered from the Inflation Crisis of 2022. Despite the All Time Highs (ATH) that it is currently trading at, we have strong evidence based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that it is entering a new, more structured Bull Cycle.
As you can see on this cross chart analysis on the 1W time-frame, the market has been on a multi-year uptrend with clear Phases, ever since the March 2009 bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time, the DXY (blue trend-line) initiated its own Channel Up.
Every time the DXY bottomed, the S&P500 transitioned from the more aggressive, recovery phase (blue Arc pattern) of the Bear Cycle to a more structured (green) Channel Up. As long as the DXY remains below its (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line, the uptrend of the Channel Up is being extended. Once broken, the stock market starts to form a top, which is natural as a strong/ expensive dollar is far from ideal for buying risky assets like stocks.
In any case, it appears that the DXY bottomed in late September 2024 and rebounded aggressively. This is rebound is the exact behavior it has when the previous two (green) Channel Up patterns started. As a result, we believe that the S&P500 has ahead of it around 4 years of growth within this Channel Up, whose pull-backs/ corrections will be the cyclical buy opportunities.
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