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Spxsignals

S&P500 about to test the 1D MA50 for 1st time since AprilThe S&P500 index (SPX) has completed three straight green 1D candles and is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a test that would be its first since April 21. This idea is basically a continuation of out analysis posted two weeks ago, exactly at the bottom (Lower Low) of the Channel Down: With the markets anticipating favorable NFP numbers today, the index is well on its way to repeat the March rise to a new Channel Down Lower High. That sequence topped a little over the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level but if repeated, that would push the price above the Channel around 4320, which is also approximately where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is. Based on the 1D RSI pattern of the same sequence, we are exactly at the point before the 1D MA50 break-out. If you followed us on the bottom call, you may book the profit and re-engage either if the 1D MA50 breaks or upon a pull-back. In either case, the technical Lower High and target should not exceed 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 1D MA50 ahead. Careful about this Double Bottom scenario.As with the other stock indices, we have certain type of patterns for S&P500 that help us identify medium/ long-term trends and take low risk/ high return positions on the market. In this case, it has been the Channel Down on the 1D time-frame since the January 04 All Time High that has given us both the previous Lower High and Lower Low: As you see last week's rise was accurately identified and even though we haven't reached the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yet, you may start considering taking full or partial profits as during the last Lower Low rally, the initial rebound was fake and the price was rejected before the 1D MA50 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level back for a Double Bottom to confirm the buying accumulation. A similar scenario can therefore take the index back near 3640 and then rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down. A viable strategy would be to take at least some profits now and then either buy on the pull-back or if a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 first. Planning a little ahead of this, a closing above the Lower Highs of the Channel Down sets target on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), while a weekly one below the 1 MA200 (red trend-line) should target the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line, scroll chart lower). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
11
ES is at Bull/Bear lineES is at Bull/Bear line, hit 110 MA and 50% retracement. A real test of who is in charge is right here. As well as ABC move up with perfect 100% extension hit on the SPX close. Jumping over the 110MA and test from the above will be a good sign of continuation of this move. There is also a possible fakeout to watch. A perfect place for a pause of this move up and some retracement. An ABC move up to 4017SPX or so is what Im looking for with A being done and we get to test 3730-40 zone before the continuation higher. Ideally we see the whole move going into the 4th of July weekend! Im slightly short as of close, kinda risky trade as this can just continue extending to 1.618 Will send a separate email with more charts to those who are on the email list. Enjoy your weekend, lots of volatility is coming after the 28th, so prepare for huge moves both ways
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
12
S&P500 Bullish month ahead towards at least the 1D MA50The S&P500 index continues to trade within a long-term Channel Down, providing excellent trade opportunities on its Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Our previous analysis on this symbol was a sell warning as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was resisting: As it turned out, that was the most optimal sell of this phase and the index confirmed our trading plan by making a new Lower Low on the Channel. Being just shy off the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, we expect the index to reverse now and rebound on a 1 month horizon. This is further backed by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on the oversold barrier. That continues to mirror the Lower Lows sequence of late January - February 2022, which initiated a rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, above both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That Lower High was priced on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Lower Low. That level is now around 4323, which is above the Channel Down, so a more modest target set would be first the 1D MA50, which at the time should be around 3950 and with a candle closing above it, an extension target near the top (Lower Highs) of the Channel, around 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 The 1W MA200 seems inevitable but there's also good newsIt has only been five months since I posted the following chart in January, calling for high yearly volatility ahead due to a U.S. elections pattern I discovered: ** The 2008 Recovery Channel ** Of course I didn't expect the S&P500 index (SPX) to reach its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that quickly, but still the chart was a right one. The index has made a new yearly low this week and this 1W chart displays the dynamics of the Channel Up the index has been trading in since it started recovering from the 2008 Bear Market. With the Fed Rate Decision today being pivotal to the stock markets' trend and a lot of market participants calling for a recession, it is useful to see what the long-term indicators are showing us. ** The 1W MA200 ** First of all as mentioned, it is very close to testing the 1W MA200, basically only 230 points (currently at 3502.96). Why all the talk about the 1W MA200? Because as you see on the chart, it has been the long-term Support of this 12 year Channel and has only broken significantly lower once on March 2020 during the COVID crash, which was a situation (economic lockdowns) completely new to the market. This is why I've included the -0.5 Fibonacci extension on the Channel because it shows that extreme, same as the 1.5 that shows the bullish extreme of the post COVID aggressive money printing to stimulate the economy. ** The 1W RSI and LMACD ** I believe the index will hit the 1W MA200 within a month's time and by then, the 1W RSI could be as low as during the COVID crash (March 16 2020). The 1W LMACD hasn't yet made a Bullish Cross but is very close to the COVID low. Every time the 1W MA200 is hit during these 12 years, an LMACD Bullish Cross has always confirmed the uptrend and recovery back to the prior Highs. ** We can recover by the end of the year ** So you may be wondering, what are the good news? Well, a very interesting stat is that on all those four occasions, it took S&P500 within 19 - 26 weeks from the moment it hit the 1W MA200 to reach its prior High. Assuming it hits the 1W MA200 by the end of July, we can recover the loss of this correction by the end of the year (or January 2023 tops). If the 1W MA200 fails to support the index and closes monthly candles below it, then it is more likely to see a strong crash to the 1M MA100 (red trend-line at 2826.50) as in the March 2020 COVID sell-off. Interestingly enough, the 1M MA100 is currently exactly on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension that supported the COVID crash. Where do you think S&P500 will find support next? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 The 1D MA50 is resisting. Scenarios ahead.The S&P500 index (SPX) rose rapidly and almost hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the current Resistance, since our last post: The long-term pattern remains a Channel Down since the All Time Highs (ATH), so the trend remains bearish towards the 3810 Support and quite possibly the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a Lower Low. The fact that the price is struggling to break the 1D MA50, further strengthens this notion. Even a break above the 1D MA50, won't be enough to turn the price bullish long-term, only on the short-term towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the Resistance level during the January 24 rebound. See how the 1D RSI is currently on similar levels. A break-out buy signal wouldn't be if the price closes above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with a short-term target the 4640 Resistance (and March 29 High). Above the level, we can claim that the index has restored the long-term bullish trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
9
🚀🚀 S&P500 - LongThis idea i posted in my channel on Friday, i Entered at 4098 and hit my TP2 at 4167. I believe we could find another entry around this region. Here is my analysis for S&P 500 SP:SPX I have marked out step by step how i have come to find a long position on S&P500 . Price has broken the previous LH and created a new HH which has BOS. There is a key level of support around the area 4098 & has now broken the counter trendline and respected the 78.6 level. Happy Trading Traders.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by benoc_
INFLATION testing a 100 year old trend-line. How will S&P react?This is an interesting analysis as the U.S. Inflation Rate (orange trend-line) is testing for the first time since early 1980 a Lower Highs trend-line that started after the High of July 1920, exactly 100 years ago! This Lower Highs trend-line has made another 2 contacts after that and it is interesting to see how the S&P500 index (blue trend-line, SPX) has behaved upon such tests (and rejections). As you see, every time the Inflation Rate hit that Lower Highs trend-line (Resistance), the S&P500 index went through a roughly 1.5 - 2 year period of correction. This was a high volatility phase, with the S&P500 correction on two out of the three occasions starting before the Inflation Rate hit the Lower Highs zone. Note that even though it was a correction, it was never in the magnitude of a Bear Cycle such as 2000/02, 2008/09 or even worse the 1929/32 Great Depression. As a result, and since the correction has already started at the start of the year (2022), before the Inflation Rate reached the historic Lower Highs trend-line, we can say that it resembles more the cases of July 1920 and May 1947. Those bottomed on July 1921 and June 1949, so 1 and 2 years respectively after the Lower Highs rejection. Can this mean that we still have another 1 - 2 years of volatility ahead of us before bottoming? What's your view on this analysis? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
16
S&P500 Bear Cycle or just correction? Key indicators to considerThe S&P500 index (SPX) broke back above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which it lost as a Support early in May. This is a trend-line that has broken in all of major corrections (4 in total) since the 2008/09 Bear Cycle of the Subprime mortgage crisis. So is this simply such a correction or the start of a new Bear Cycle? Let's see a few markers that played an important role in the past. ** The 1W RSI Lower Highs trend-line ** First and foremost, since the May 16 2022 1W candle (this analysis is on the 1W (weekly) time-frame), the RSI has been rising towards the Lower Highs (LH) trend-line formed from the recent High (All Time High to be exact). In all previous corrections, once the price broke above this LH trend-line, then the trend resumed the bullish course. Note that the RSI rebound is coming after an exact hit on the 30.00 RSI level, which is the bottom of its multi-year Support Zone. This Support Zone has broken only twice in the past 14 years: near the end of the 2008/09 Bear Cycle and on March 2020 during the panic sale amidst the COVID outbreak. Also, regarding the LH trend-line, we have to mention that it marginally broke in late October 2015 but still the index made a new Low. So we have to give this line some room even if it breaks soon. ** The role of the 1W MA200 and 1D MA100 and the key Buy Signal ** Every correction hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) after breaking the 1W MA100. Currently that is around 3495. There are two cases in which this can be avoided. First, as mentioned above, if the 1W RSI breaks above its LH trend-line. And second, if the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) approaches or even better hit the 1W MA100 prior. Those two are very close now. Once they converge, that is historically the strongest long-term buy signal in recent years. ** The 0.618 Fibonacci as the difference between a correction and a Bear Cycle ** A critical marker as well, is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This may as well be called 'the difference between a Bull correction and a Bear Cycle'. As you see, the 0.618 Fib level from the bottom has always broken on every correction but failed to break the one time which later turned out to be the subprime Bear Market. Assuming May's low is the bottom, the 0.618 Fib is currently around 4435. That means that if it breaks, we can call the value loss since the start of the year, a correction and not the start of a Bear Cycle. ** Conclusion ** Well there is not much to be said in an analysis like this, the chart is pretty much self-explanatory. Perhaps what you can keep as a long-term investor/ trader is that you can either buy again with a relative degree of safety either above the 0.618 Fib (4435) or when the 1W RSI breaks its Lower Highs and the 1D MA100 comes close (or touches) the 1W MA100. As you see such patterns turn to pay big with the lowest possible risk and are rarely presented opportunities. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
8
S&P500 First MACD Bullish Cross formed since March 15The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Down ever since the January 04 2022 All Time High (ATH). Recently (May 20) it hit the Lower Low (bottom) trend-line of the Channel for the third time (Jan 24 and Feb 24 the others) and rebounded reaching the first Fibonacci extension (0.236 Fib). Perhaps even more important than the dynamics that a rebound on the Lower Lows trend-line creates is the fact that the MACD on the 1D time-frame has just made yesterday a Bullish Cross. That is the 4th time within this pattern we see this pattern forming. All previous formation have kick-started rises (+8.90%, +7.50% and +12.00% respectively in chronological order). As a result, a minimum of +7.50% rise would see the index hit roughly 4090 and the 0.5 Fib, while a maximum of +12.00% would get it to around 4275 and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A break below the recent Lower Low though may be enough to push the price even lower to the 2.0 Fib extension around 3630. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 The 6M chart that helps us not lose perspectiveThe Standard and Poor's Index (S&P500 / SPX) has been on a strong correction these past roughly 6 months. For that reason, we present this analysis on the 6M time-frame, where every candle represents 6 months of price action. ** The RSI indicating where we are ** It is not a surprise that the current one is in deep red as its whole price action has been the aforementioned correction phase. The 6M RSI (pane below the chart) offers a valuable insight on where SPX may stand on the long-term as compared to the past mega-Cycles, which keep repeating throughout the history. ** Periods of recession ** As you see, the RSI broke below its MA trend-line (yellow line) for the first time since the first six months of 2012. Practically this was when the market confirmed the recovery from almost a decade long period of extreme uncertainty and volatility that was fueled by the two major crashes, the DotCom and the Subprime mortgage crisis. Historically, the last similar period was the roughly 10 years that followed the early 30s Great Depression. ** Same as in mid 50s ** Back to the RSI. The last time the indicator broke below its MA line, being that high (around 85.00) following the recovery from a Recession, was in the second half of 1957. Both are marked with a circle. The market posted only one red 6M candle and then steadily recovered. In fact as long as the 6M MA20 (green trend-line) was supporting, the index was making Higher Highs. Once it broke, it made a Lower Low and then after a Higher High, it broke even lower to touch the 6H MA50 (blue trend-line). That held and kickstarted a period of highly aggressive stock growth until the DotCom crash. ** The MA20 and MA50 being the multi-decade Support Zone ** Note that during both RSI breaks below the MA, the index has been way above the 6M MA20. In fact, the last time the index (almost) touched the 6M MA20 was during the March 2020 COVID crash. Notice how basically the MA20 and MA50 form the multi-decade Support (Buy) Zone since practically 1943. ** Conclusion ** This historic pattern suggests that if the current price action is modelled out of it, then the current correction shouldn't go past June and as long as the 6M MA20 holds, the S&P500 index is up for a sustainable decade of Higher Highs and Higher Lows where dips near the 6M MA20 will present buy opportunities. Do you agree with the above hypothesis or you think a new recession is ahead of us? Let me know in the comments section below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
16
S&P500 made a Channel Down bottom. Rebound or break lower?The S&P500 index (SPX) made today a core technical Lower Low (bottom) on the Channel Down pattern that has been trading in since the January 04 All Time High (ATH). Last time the price hit that Lower Lows trend-line, it held and after 3 weeks of high volatility, it posted an aggressive rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the pattern, just below hte 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. As long as the Lower Lows trend-line holds, it is more likely for S&P500 to rebound within a 1 month horizon, towards the Lower Highs trend-line around the 0.786 Fib, which is at 4480. The 1D RSI Channel of Higher Lows and Higher High (i.e. bullish divergence against the bearish price action), remains also intact, in fact yesterday bounced off the Higher Lows trend-line. Keep your stops tight though if you are on a tight margin as a 1D candle close below the Channel Down, could be technically interpreted as a bearish extension signal. Typically such big stock market corrections seek their 1W MMA200 (red trend-line) before they make a Bear Cycle bottom and start the new Bull Cycle. That would almost be a -28% correction from the All Time High. As for the long-term bullish trend, in order for that to be restored, the index would have to break above the 4635 Resistance, which is the previous Lower High. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Sell in May and go away? Is it actually true or a myth?You've heard this expression before: "Sell in May and go away". It is an old Wall Street saying that basically prompts stock investors to sell in May as the market prepares to enter the Summer period that is supposedly characterized of thin volume as fund managers lighten their stock portfolios and reduce their activity due to vacation leaves etc. But how accurate is this really? Is it reality or a myth? This is the S&P500 (SPX) chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where I look into the month of May price action (as well as before and after) since the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007/08. As you see, out of this sample of 13 events (May months), we've have 8 cases where May was bullish and extended or started a rise, 3 cases where the price action was bearish on or after May for at least one month and 2 cases where May was bearish but a big rally started after. This alone shows that "sell in May and go away" isn't that accurate. A more interesting aspect is perhaps the fact that in all cases where a big dip preceded May's price action, the actual month of May was Bullish (May 2009, May 2018, May 2020). I mention that because it is directly related to today, as we are all aware of that the price action since the start of the year (January 2022) has been a strong correction due to the raging inflation and the Ukraine - Russia war among other reasons. This indicates that then the market had already correction and is oversold, investors tend to buy in this opportunity in May. Since S&P500 has already corrected more than -17%, will May 2022 close in green despite the current disappointing opening? Let me know in the comments section below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
9
S&P500 targeting 4400 on this wave. Conditions for long-term.The S&P500 index (SPX) turned the price action since the start of 2022 into a Channel Down pattern. Monday's low came very close to the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is a level intact since May 18 2020. A weekly (1W) candle close below it, will most likely kick-start a new round of aggressive selling. As long as it holds though, it is more likely to see the index rebound to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is now a little over 4400. That would be within the Lower Highs zone of the Channel Down. That's the medium-term projection at least. On the long-term though, based on a distant fractal of similar price action from June 2015 to January 2016, we can only expect an extended rise, if the 4640 High (currently the Resistance) breaks. That is at least what happened in June 07 2016, where after an initial pull-back, the long-term bullish trend was resumed. Notice also the similarities on the 1D RSI sequences. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Huge Inverse Head & Shoulders completed.The S&P500 index is having a very aggressive sell-off following Jerome Powell's remarks on a 50 basis point hike in May. As you see on the chart, the rejection took place on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is about to test today the 1D MA400 (green trend-line). Why the 1D MA400 is so important? Because during the February - March 'war' correction, it provided support twice (on Feb 24 and March 15). Besides the 1D MA400, the price just hit the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (4220 roughly). Fibonacci retracement levels during this 2022 correction have been instrumental in forming Support and Resistance levels. As shown on the chart, the 0.786 Fib has rejected the price 2 times (including Powell's rejection on the 1D MA200), the 0.5 Fib has supported 2 times while the 0.236 once. Additionally, the 1D CCI is approaching the first buy level. But perhaps the most important development of all is the formation of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) where today's low is the Right Shoulder and is exactly symmetrical as the Left Shoulder. IH&S patterns are technically bullish reversal structures and typically form the bottom of downtrends. The trading levels during the current days may be the last chance and a unique opportunity to buy before a strong Q3/Q4 rally to new All Time Highs. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 on a strong 1D RSI reboundThe S&P500 index is on a strong green candle today on the 1D time-frame, following a bounce yesterday on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As the pull-back since the March 29 High completed a 50% retrace, and the price stayed around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), there are strong probabilities to see this green candle evolve into a strong rebound past the 4637 Resistance (1). The reason is the RSI, which is also rebounding just above its Higher Lows trend-line running from January 25. As you see this was (almost) the 4th perfect contact on the trend-line. The short-term Resistance is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the medium-term target being 4750 (Resistance 2). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 can rise temporarily but 4400 likely mid-term.S&P500 print a Head & Shoulders pattern last week and naturally dropped below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in two weeks (since March 15). The pull-back is now neutralized and we see today a bullish reaction. This rise can be temporary and even though a test of the recent High is possible, it is more likely to see in the medium-term a test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and even lower. The guide for this is the fact that both price wise and based on the RSI on the 4H time-frame, the rise since the March 15 low is quite similar to that of October 01 - November 10 2021. As you see on the chart, the index formed a similar Head and Shoulders pattern that initially dropped below the 4H MA50 and even though it made one last mini-rally to the Head of the formation, it eventually pulled much lower, below the 4H MA200 and 1D MA50 (red trend-line). Currently this rough pull-back projection is around 4400. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 time for this rally to consolidateThose of you following my channel here for long, know that I am a long-term stock investor and wait for the right time to buy the index at a low price. Last month even called here the bottom of the 'Ukraine-Russia war' correction based on the DotCom Bubble fractal, which is so far playing-out very well: However, I do not hesitate to call for rally pauses or pull-backs when I see one. And currently, based on the COVID correction price action, S&P500 may enter a 2-3 week consolidation phase, as the mid-March rally loses momentum and exhausts. Keep in mind that it was the COVID fractal and its 1D Death Cross, that helped us time the bottom. See how on both sequences, the 1D Death Cross was formed right after the market bottom. Now that the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, we should keep an eye on where the 1D candles closes. A closing above the 4595 Resistance of the February Highs, could invalidate the similarities with 2020 and sustain the rally all they way to the 4820 All Time Highs (ATH), but in any other occasion, a pull-back and multi-week consolidation is more likely. As long as the 1D MA50 supports, dips should again be bought. This is invalidated if the price breaks again below the former Lower Highs trend-line. Note how the RSI sequences of the two fractals are virtually identical. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
11
Should the WHEAT rally worry stock investors?The current war Ukraine has caused Wheat prices to skyrocket in February and March as Ukraine and Russia export 1/3 of world's wheat. Geopolitical unrest always causes commodity prices to rise, which is something I recently looked into in early March: As far as wheat is concerned though, it hit its All Time High (ATH), but hasn't closed the month above it, and voices in the markets have already started calling for food shortages and even civil unrest. Those stem from patterns studied as back in time as the U.S. Civil War, the French Revolution and more recently the Arab Spring. Indeed wheat, which is the primary ingredient in bread, has a long history as a commodity with significant political ramifications when the prices rise and availabilities become scarce. In TradingShot however, we don't yet share these worries as in the stock market era, there is a pattern showing that stocks are most likely safe, unless a certain thing happens. And that is a rally way above Wheat's ATH. Last time it happened was in mid 2007 and as a new top was made in February 2008, the stock market had already began what would end up in a massive correction due to the subprime mortgage defaults, the worst economic crisis in the U.S.A since the Great Depression. In more detail, it appears the S&P500 (black trend-line) and Wheat (blue trend-line) since the 2000 DotCom crisis, follow the same pattern as since 1968. The Wheat peak on Feb 1974, coincided with the big stock market correction of 1973/74. Then the Wheat ATH was tested 2 times (Nov 1980 and April 1996) but never closed a month above it (until as mentioned before 2007). The result was that the stock market (S&P500 as mentioned in our example), enjoyed its best historic bull run from late 1974 to mid 2000 (DotCom Bubble). Of course it wasn't just Wheat that aided to that expansion, but at least this chart shows that until Wheat rallies aggressively and makes monthly closes above its All Time High, we most likely don't have to worry about a stock market crash or other socioeconomic concerns such as famine, civil unrest, revolutions etc that are lately making headlines in the news. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
SP&500 to Gold Ratio. Will stocks outperform Gold this decade?This is a very important reading to long-term investors and wealth managers. The simple S&P500-to-Gold ratio goes as back as 1889 (!) and displays in the most accurate way the relationship of stocks to the yellow metal over the decades. As you see, every (approximately) 35 years, there is a Full Cycle where initially Gold outperforms S&P500 (SPX) in a periods that lasts roughly 11-13 years but then S&P enjoys a strong long-term rally against Gold, which typically lasts for 20-25 years. What tends to be the most accurate indicator that confirms the rally of S&P against Gold is the 1M (monthly time-frame) MA100/ MA200 Bullish Cross. This is when the monthly MA100 (green trend-line) crosses above the monthly MA200 (orange trend-line). This Bullish Cross has taken place 3 times in past decades and all of which ended with strong rallies. The Cross took place more recently in August 2020. S&P500 had already been outperforming Gold since mid 2011, but took a pull-back in late 2018 (as Gold started its new Bull Cycle) and resumed the uptrend in March 2020 after the Fed increased the money supply and issued trillion dollar rescue packages to support the economy from the COVID lock-down. As a result, this analysis shows that S&P500 will most likely outperform Gold in the next 10 years. The ratio can go as high as 8.00 - 9.00, which is below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from its most recent Higher High before the Bullish Cross. The reason we pick this value as a top is because all previous Tops follow a decreasing rate, being on the 2.5 Fib, 3.0 Fib and 3.5 Fib respectively as we go back in time. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Golden Cross on 4H and potential pull-back.The S&P500 index turned bullish last week as it broke above three critical Resistance levels: the former Lower Highs trend-line of 2022, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). The natural target zone is the range consisting of the February Resistance (4595) and the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level (4547). Perhaps the most important technical development of this week, is the formation of the Golden Cross (when the MA50 crosses above the MA200) on the 4H time-frame, which we will see the first time since December 27 2021. However, as the 4H RSI turned lower on Lower Lows and Lower Highs, much like the March 03 sequence, it is more likely to see a pull-back first, towards the 4H MA50 and 0.382 Fib initially at 4379 and then the 0.236 Fib at 4275. Being a potential Channel Up, that should be the new buy entry. Any level below the Higher Lows trend-line, risks turning the long-term sentiment back to bearish. Of course this pull-back case will be invalidated if the index breaks above the 4595 February Resistance first, in which case the 4820 All Time High (ATH) will be targeted. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
5