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S&P500 Imminent 1D Death Cross. Bullish or bearish historically?The S&P500 index is ahead of a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame that can't be avoided. This is technically a very bearish formation, which is formed after a series of selling and suggests that more is coming. Reality though may be different some times, especially in the stock markets, so let's see how this signal has traded historically. As you see on this 1D chart, since 2015, there have been four Death Cross formations. Three took place on or after the index has formed a bottom and only once (December 03 2018), did the price broke (much) lower to form the bottom. What is common in all occurrences and may help at identifying if the current Death Cross has formed a bottom or will break lower, is the RSI indicator. When the RSI respects its Higher Lows (bullish divergence with the price that is currently on Lower Lows), then the bottom is in. On December 14 2018, that trend-line broke and that was when SPX collapsed to a new Low. Interestingly enough, during that correction, the price dipped to -20%, a repeat of that would place the current bottom around 3850. We can even go further back with the chart below, after the 2008 subprime mortgage crash, to see that the 1D Death Crosses of July 2010 and August 2011, also marked the bottom (slight lower low in 2011 but is negligible), instead of a fall to a new Low. So to sum it up, the 1D RSI is so far holding its Higher Lows trend-line. That is an early indication that the bottom will be in when the Death Cross forms, probably by early next week. Are you buying already or waiting to see if the RSI Higher Lows break first? Let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
10
S&P500 Keep an eye for a repeat of mid October!The price action of the S&P500 index on the 1D time-frame since the January 04 2022 Top (left side), is so far very similar to that of September - mid October on the 12H time-frame (right side). In both cases, there is a Lower Highs trend-line involved from the top, the MA50 (blue trend-line) providing Resistance, as well as a break below the MA200 (orange trend-line). The RSI sequences are also identical. On the mid-October fractal, the price turned bullish again only after it broke above the MA50 and the Lower Highs trend-line. The key before this, was the green Higher Lows zone that held and gave the last decisive push to make the break-out. Right now, and of course if the pattern continues to replicate the October sequence, it seems that S&P500 is on the last pull-back stage to test the green Higher Lows zone. If that holds, look for an MA50/ Lower Highs test. A break above, most likely confirms the return to long-term bullish territory. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
8
S&P500 The Channel Down is still holdingYes another Lower Low on the Channel Down with yet another Support level broken. The index has now two natural Resistance levels, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is unbroken since January 13. The CCI seems to have bottomed. Assuming that, at least for this phase of the Ukraine - Russia war, things won't escalate over the weekend, the index might post a short-term rebound towards the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. The previous Lower High was exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Lower Low. The 0.618 Fib from yesterday's Lower Low is currently a little over 4400. We can only expect the long-term bullish trend to resume if S&P500 closes above the 1D MA50, where it failed during the previous Lower High. Until then, trading within the Channel Down is more realistic. A break below the 4035 Support (of the May 13 Low) could deliver a flash crash to the next available Support at 3855 (the March 25 2021 Low). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Trading plan for the next 30 days.The last break-out trading plan I posted for S&P500 worked out well enough as it failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), so no longs taken, but it successfully broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the break-out signal for shorting: If you took that sell, it may be a good idea to book the respectable profits gained now, despite the fact that the 4230 original target wasn't reached, as the price is rebounding strongly today having priced yesterday's geopolitical fundamentals of Russia recognizing new independent states in Ukraine. Technically, the long target of this rebound is the 1D MA200, which is now a little over 4470 (but rising). In my opinion, after that level, buying may be resumed only if the index breaks above the 1D MA50 as well (now at 4575 but declining), which is the current Resistance and the level that rejected the price on the February 10 Lower High. On the other hand, if S&P500 breaks below the Lower Lows trend-line of the October 01 2021 Low, then I suggest shorting again seeking targets near the next available Support of 4035 (the May 13 2021 Low). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Is there one last ATH left before a dotcom type crash??I won't use too many words here as the charts is pretty much self explanatory. This is the S&P500 index today (on the left from 2018 to 2022) and the build up to the dotcom crash (1996 - 2000). I approach this symmetrically with 1997 and 2018 being the start of a highly volatile period where the RSI on the 1W time-frame started trading under Lower Highs i.e. showing a bearish divergence against the Higher Highs of the price's uptrend. That period of volatility eventually came to an end and gave way to a massive rally led by euphoria, which gave the first sign of worries on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern in 1999. It appears that this is where we are at now. In 1999, the H&S, despite breaking below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), didn't form a market top but eventually made one last fake rally to an All Time High (ATH) in March 2000. That was the market peak and as we all know the crash of the dotcom bubble took place and the index entered a Bear Market. Does this mean S&P500 has one last ATH to give before a new dotcom like crash or this H&S already represents the market top for you? Or neither of the two and the stock market will continue upwards without such a crash? Let's make a heated discussion and let me know in the comments section below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
10
S&P500 and WTI OIL remarkable divergence and convergence patternEver since the COVID recovery started, both the S&P500 index and the WTI Oil, have followed similar courses, especially since the start of 2021. There is a very interesting pattern of divergence and convergence, which the two follow on a consistent basis. As this chart on the 1D time-frame shows, when S&P500 (blue trend-line) diverges from the shared upward path with WTI (black trend-line), within the blue zone, they have always converged back (yellow zone). Ever since mid January 2022, it is WTI that diverged from the S&P500 as the index dropped violently while WTI continued its rapid price growth. Last time this happened was in the mid Feb 2021 - mid March 2021 Divergence, as the other two Divergence Phases, it was the S&P500 that rapidly expanded while WTI was correcting. Naturally, if this pattern continues to play out, we should now have a new Convergence phase where the two assets cross trend-lines again and continue their course when they will eventually diverge again. This means that we should be expecting S&P to recover while WTI pulls back from its current highs. Do you think that will be the case? Let me know in the comments section below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 trapped within the 1D MA50 and MA200. Trade the break-outS&P500 has recovered more than 50% of January's strong correction as today the price hit again the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. If it doesn't break, this is on the short-term a Double Top as the same High was made there on February 02. Technically, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) now comes in play as it is the major Resistance of this recovery attempt while the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is the short-term Support, which has already held once successfully on February 04. Notice how those Resistance and Support levels almost perfectly align with the 0.618 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels. Short-term traders could trade the break-out: if it closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50 = buy target 4900 (long-term Higher Highs trend-line), while below the 1D MA200 = sell target 4230 (just above the 4220 Support). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Trade the Pivot ZoneS&P500 broke again above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) today after making a strong rebound at a level (4220) not seen since June 22 2021. This has certainly restored the bullish sentiment on the short/ medium-term but there is a key Pivot Zone to consider within 4500 - 4550 that acted as Support/ Resistance on three prior occasions. With the 1W RSI also rebounding at the bottom of its Channel Down, there is a strongest case to restore the long-term bullish sentiment but it is best to keep your approach on the medium-term and buy above the Pivot Zone (target the Higher Highs trend-line) and sell below it (target near the 4220 Support). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 ended the U.S elections rally. Years of volatility ahead?This is the S&P500 index on the 1W time-frame (on the log scale). The recent sell-off (-12% so far) is leaving many wondering what is happening and rightly so as it broke below the very strong bullish pattern (Higher Highs/ Higher Lows) since the November 2020 U.S. elections. As I looked more closely into it though by running past regression models, I found that this could in fact be a behavioral pattern linked to post election periods. More specifically, we witnessed the same sell-off on S&P500 in January 2018 which was exactly 65 weeks (455 days) after the November 08 2016 U.S. elections! Right now we are exactly 65 weeks after the November 03 2020 elections with the index having broken below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). It is important to see if SPX can close the current week above the 1W MA50 as in 2018, the 1W MA50 supported the (also -12%) sell-off and gradually led to a new Higher High. However that Higher High was short-lived as in the same year (2018), the index saw an even stronger sell-off that hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Practically that Lower Low which came after the Higher High formed a multi-year Megaphone pattern. That extensive period of high-volatility started with the U.S. - China trade war and ended even more violently with the global asset melt-down of the panic over the COVID pandemic on March 2020, where the sell-off almost hit the 1M MA100 (red trend-line). As mentioned above, S&P500 broke below its 1W MA50 yesterday but today shows signs of recovery and is already above it again. A 1W candle close above the MA50 could be the start of a new long-term Megaphone pattern with high volatility due to mostly geopolitical uncertainty. As of now, it is the tensions between the West and Russia over the Ukrainian borders that seems to be starting this geopolitical uncertainty. Note that a similar period of geopolitical uncertainty took place from late 2014 to the start of 2016, when events such as a potential exit of Greece from the Eurozone, China's economic slowdown, VW scandal, ECB outlook and Oil sell-off rattle global markets and created a Megaphone that also tested the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 in successive Lower Lows. Do you think history will repeat itself and the markets will enter uncertainty following a very strong post elections rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Editors' picks
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
55
U.S. stocks crashing? If so which currencies to trade?Last week was a very painful one for the U.S. (as well as global) stock markets, seeing the biggest sell-off since the March 2020 crash that was caused by the COVID outbreak panic. So if we are at the start or halfway of a typical correction on the stock markets, which currencies should we seek as a safe haven and which to avoid? The current chart is on the 1W time-frame and it includes the price action of S&P500 (blue trend-line), EURUSD (green), USDCHF (red) and USDJPY (yellow) since September 2018, which was when the U.S. - China trade war reached its peak. This analysis is simple yet it offers very useful and straightforward insight on how these markets behave when the S&P500 crashes: * As you see during the U.S. - Chine trade war peak when the S&P started to drop significantly on the week of September 17 2018, the EURUSD started to fall as well. At the same time the USDCHF started rising aggressively while the USDJPY despite an initial fall, it recovered and stayed stable. * During the COVID crash, when the S&P500 started to fall on the Feb 10 2020 1W candle, the EURUSD initially rose but on the final flush crash of the March 02 candle, it also crashed, even on a Lower Low. At the same time, both the USDCHF and USDJPY crashed at first but recovered aggressively on S&P's March final flush. Based on the above, assuming that S&P500 is closer to the middle of this correction and not the start, the USDCHF and the USDJPY should offer the best shelter until this correction is over. We could see an initial rise on EURUSD but if this is indeed a stock market correction, it should later follow stocks lower. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 has made a bottom on its 1 year Channel Up. 4950 next.S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again yesterday and by doing that, it reached the Higher Lows trend-line of the 12-month Channel Up that started in December 2020 just after the U.S. elections rally. That is a strong technical Support and based on the 1 year price action, the index has most likely priced its bottom. If not I give one max extension (even though much less likely) to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a bottom, which is a level that hasn't been touched since June 2020. We are expecting a strong rally towards the top of the Channel Up and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension around 4950/60. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
9
S&P500 Double level rebound targeting +4900.S&P500 has made a strong rebound yesterday (big wick on the 1D candle) after reaching exactly as low as both the Higher Lows trend-line (dashed line) of December 03 and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). This is a Double Support Event. The 1D RSI at the same time made a Double Bottom similar to previous bottom formation sequences within the 2021 Channel Up and is forming Higher Lows. At this stage we expect this to be the start of a 1.5 - 2.0 month bullish wave towards the top of the Channel Up and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, with our Target being just below it at 4960. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 hit the 1D MA50. New buy opportunity.I haven't updated my SPX outlook every since predicting that perfect buy on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) on December 20: Right now a new (short-term this time) opportunity arises as the index hit today its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The chart above (1D time-frame) shows that, on this Channel Up that held for the whole 2021, after every 1D MA100 bottom, the re-test of the 1D MA50 is a short-term support towards a new Higher High at the top of the Channel Up. In fact it resembles a lot the March 25 2021 1D MA50 test. Technically the new Higher High is made on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Currently you can set two medium-term targets one just below the 1.5 Fib (4850) and the other just below the 2.0 Fib (4960). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Will it share the same fate as the QE ending of 2015?On this analysis I compare the S&P500 index' price action from the post March 2020 crash against the period of January 2013 - December 2015. The reason is the one thing those two have in common: the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) eras. As the chart shows, the two sequences has been fairly similar as they started by posting strong growth on the basis of aggressive QE (in the past to recover from the subprime crisis and in 2020 to recover from the COVID pandemic). Recently SPX has started to become more volatile and the reason is the Fed starting the taper program and announcing multiple rate hikes in 2022. We saw the same market reaction from October 2014 onwards after the Fed concluded its QE at the time and until the first interest rate hike (since 2008) in December 2015, the market entered a transition phase of very high volatility. Do you think history will repeat itself and we'll see or have already entered a new long-term volatile phase? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 Solid long-term buy opportunityMy most recent S&P500 idea was a short-term one on the 4H time-frame, where I called for a pull-back and then rebound to 4740: The target has been hit but the latest pandemic news were used as the catalyst for a new, deeper pull-back. I am switching back to the 1D time-frame where the index has just hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again, for the first time since the December 03 low. As shown on the chart, this sequence has been spotted another 2 times before within this 12-month Channel Up: a) Double Top on the Resistance, b) Pull-back, c) RSI Double Bottom and d) Rebound to the 2.0 Fibonacci Extension level In our firm's perspective, once this formation is completed again, we expect another rebound. Our new long-term target is 4850. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Be ready to buy the pull-back if needed.This is a short-term update on the 4H time-frame which I rarely use for S&P500 on my November 30 idea: As you see on that recent post, the 1D MA50 worked well once more in catching the correction within the multi-month Channel Up and the index has been rebounding strongly this week. This long-term Channel has worked very well at identifying tops as well: Anyway back to the current situation/ chart and the 4H time-frame. The index has entered the High Volatility Cluster of November, which was basically a prolonged Resistance Zone. As long as the 4745 Resistance doesn't breaks, there are high probabilities for a pull-back towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which as this long-term uptrend unfolds should form a Golden Cross over the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Notice also the MACD which is closer to a Bearish Cross after this very strong rally. If you missed the bottom buy around the 1D MA50, this might be the opportunity you're looking for a new entry. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
6
S&P500 is approaching its medium-term buy levelIt is time to update our perspective on the S&P500, which we last analyzed a week ago when we called the exact market top on November 22: As you see the index got rejected that day and corrected instantly, which based on our analysis is a much needed technical correction in accordance with the long-term pattern of the 2021 Channel Up on the 1D time-frame. The price is now very close to the 1D MA50 (blue pattern) and as per the May fractal, which has been accurately following, a contact there is a highly possible bottom. Thus, a slightly further dip within 4540 - 4520 would be ideal for a new medium-term buy towards the 4740 Resistance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Technical short-term correction imminentThis is a quick update to the S&P500 analysis posted 10 days ago: As the plan suggested, the index continued to slowly rise just below the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the 2021 Channel Up, following the late April/ early May fractal. Right now this is about to get completed, meaning that S&P may be ahead of a short-term technical correction towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The RSI (on the 1D time-frame) is also printing an identical sequence. Naturally that should be the final pull-back before the seasonal end-of-the-year rally. However, even the slightest break above the Channel's Higher Highs, could lead to a buying frenzy towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension trend-line. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio. Final stage of the BUBBLE?This is a simple yet very interesting chart illustrating the Nasdaq-to-S&P500 ratio since the 1980s. As you see after a price stabilization in the 1980s, the ratio started to rise but steadily within a Channel Up since 1998. That was when the tech index (Nasdaq) took off fueled by the dot.com mania on a 2 year rally that eventually led to the dot.com crash of 2000. The ratio has been trading within a similar Channel Up since the 2008/09 subprime mortgage crisis. Currently the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) are converging in a squeeze evetn that was seen in the 1990s Channel Up at the end of it, when NDX's parabolic rally started. Does that mean that we are about to enter the final 2 year stage of the Bubble? Share your thoughts in the comments section. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:NDQLong
by TradingShot
10
S&P500 could rise a little higher before a new 1DMA50 correctionS&P500 has been trading inside a straightforward Channel Up since the start of the year. It recently (November 05) hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel and pulled back, however today is posting a respectable rebound. According to a similar fractal in late April, it is possible to extend this rise just below the top of the Channel Up for some more days, before it eventually pulls back for the technical 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) correction. See how the RSI (1D time-frame) on both fractals got rejected at the exact same level. Note that any break above the top of the Channel Up, could initiate a bullish break-out towards the 1.5 Fib extension of the underlying Fibonacci Channel. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3