S&P500 One last 1D MA50 touch left before $4800?S&P has made new All Time Highs (ATH) since my analysis at the start of the month, where the diverging 1D RSI gave a strong buy signal at the bottom of the multi-month Channel Up:
As you see the signal worked out well and the index has now the 1.5 Fibonacci extension as its next target (followed by the 2.0 Fib ext ultimately just above 4800). As the Fed Rate Decision is approaching next week, there is a possibility that the market sells the news on the short-term, make contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then rally for the rest of the month.
After all from a technical perspective, the 1D MA50 has supported from March until the recent September break-out.
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Spxsignals
S&P500 Emerging Golden Cross on 4H.My most recent analysis on S&P500 was 15 days ago, when I talked about why the Bearish Ichimoku was in fact a bullish signal:
As it turned out, the signal was accurate and SPX made a bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up and rebounded. In fact it even broke above the 1D MA50, the strongest short-term bearish barrier (also the 4H MA200) and is closing in on the 4480 September 27 High.
The pattern seems like a peculiar Inverse Head and Shoulders, which is a bullish formation, but perhaps even more important than that is the fact that we have a potential 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 crosses above the 4H MA200) forming. Ever since the November 2020 U.S. elections, every Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame has been heavily bullish.
I mentioned on my last update that this price action resembles the February-March fractal and currently I see no reason to change that. I expect a test of the 1.5 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions towards the end of November for a new Higher High on this long-term Channel Up.
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S&P500 Ichimoku turned red but is it a bearish signal?S&P has been trading within a long-term Channel Up ever since the aggressive rebound straight after the November 2020 U.S. elections. Today the price just hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of that Channel.
There are two high probability scenarios arising after September's pull-back:
a) This pull-back is similar to late February - early March 2021 (both on -6% pull-backs that hit the bottom of the Channel Up.
b) It is similar to the October 30 2020 bottom itself (elections low) as they both broke below the Ichimoku Cloud. In fact the last two times before today that the Ichimoku indicator turned bearish was on December 02 2020 and October 29 2020.
On top of that the 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence as its been on Higher Lows since Sept 20 while the price is on Lower Lows, indicating that the selling might be getting weaker.
If SPX materializes one of those scenarios then we may expect first 4688 and then 4826 by December which is the 1.5 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions respectively, as both of those a) b) patterns reached those extensions.
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S&P GOOD fundamental but huge sell offS&P had really good fundamental news today with Margins increasing by 13%. The sell off comes all the way down to seek liquidity at a Gap i had marked for some time now. This gap provided a fantastic rejection zone and im expecting a rebound. looking for a rebound to the 50% level and really hoping to get to the 4600 61% area.
S&P500 Death Cross formed on 4H. Bottom or more fall?On my most recent S&P post, I've written about the indicators that were pointing towards a correction:
The correction eventually took place as the MACD formed a clear 'peak pattern', that was present at both the May 10 and July 13 tops. However this time the price has broken considerably below the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) and has so far stopped on the 4350 Support (August 19 low).
What stands out this time was the formation of the Death Cross (when the MA50 (blue) crosses below the MA200 (orange)) on the 4H time-frame. Even though this is typically a bearish pattern, last time it formed (May 19) it actually had the opposite effect as it marked a bottom. The MACD is also on its first Support. Does this mean that S&P500 is at a bottom? Very likely but we also have to consider for added volatility ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting. Every time a bottom was formed, the Previous High was reached shortly after.
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SPX Leading the wayAs SPX has been leading the way this week, today was no different. Starting off with some downward pressure seaking liquidity it found some @61.8 level and gave a really nice reaction pushing towards the previous 2 day highs but not closing above. this leads me to believe were going into a bit of a range so im looking for this rally to be short lived and possible downside Thursday. watch for a positive retail sales number as this could drive the price higher.
S&P500 textbook Price action and GAP fillS&P as predicted gave some pre market push up before some strong downward force to fill the gap to perfection and giving a beautiful reaction to the 4450 zone 50% level. Im still bearish for the moment looking at the 4420 zone 70% level but main focus is on the 4400-4375 area with the 79%and88% levels where ill be looking for a structured momentum switch.
S&P broke the 4H MA50. Starting the correction.Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 20. Also the price action and the MACD is similar to the July 15 consolidation which also led to a pull-back below the 4H MA50.
Target: The 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), which has been the target of all corrections within the 12 month Channel Up.
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S&P500 1D RSI hit Resistance. Pull-back imminent.S&P500 has been trading within an almost 1 year long Channel Up ever since the U.S. elections. The pattern has been quite consistent especially in "buy the dip terms" as every hit on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been an optimal buy level for so long. That has been the strongest aspect of my strategy, last time I shared it was on July 19:
Right now the index is not on the 1D MA50 but there is a pattern that has given accurate "sell the top" signals also: the RSI on the 1D time-frame. As you see on the main chart, every time the RSI hits (or marginally approaches) the 70.000 Resistance level, it marks a top and waves a sell signal.
Naturally I expect the continuation of this pattern with a pull-back to the 1D MA50, where new buys can be placed.
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S&P500 healthy pull-back for bullish continuationPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy on the next pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This buy signal has been consistent since June 01, appearing 3 times.
Target: The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
Most recent S&P signal:
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SPX500 Entries + ExitsBack to our roots.
How To Play The Chart Entries/Exits:
Buy at green support entry, if it breaks by -35 pips (count it out) then enter a sell and ride to TP1, 2 and 3. Trail stop at each TP which means place your stop loss in profit but with enough room to be able to continue the sell if it continues. Same thing at resistance, sell but if broken by 30 pips then enter the buy and ride to TP1. Each TP is a support or resistance zone , so you could then even take a sell after TP1 for the buys have been hit and if it breaks out then just repeat.
SPX WARNING Fibonacci Circle top and Wave 5 topHi its been a while,
i've been very busy with The OWL and cryptos. I want to show you this chart cos i think we are approching a market top soon, the consequence of a hit of this 3.618 fib would end in my opinion a Supercycle.. which can bring a depression and a Deflation plase. Also this bearish divergence we created since May 1998 is no doubt.
S&P500 Buy opportunity on the 1D MA50This is a continuation idea to the most recent one:
Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the RSI has entered its 1 year Buy Zone.
Target: 4450 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which has been the most modest target for a Higher High within the Channel Up).
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S&P500 Is it getting ahead of itself?The index has been trading within a Channel Up since the November 2020 elections. The barometer has always been the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) mostly, where the majority of buy accumulation has been taking place. The Ichimoku Cloud is second. What we see now is the price trading very close to the Higher Highs trend-line and although it can break the 4,400 - 4,420 zone and trade just under the Higher Highs trend-line for a long period of time (like Nov 2020 - Jan 2021 and April 2021 - May 2021), it is best to stay focused and use the long-term perspective as a guide. The RSI offers a good viewpoint as well, especially in terms of the consolidation near the Higher Highs, but it also has a clear 1 year Buy Zone and that is within 43.000 - 35.000.
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S&P500 March/ April fractal points to above 4450This is something I've also pointed out a month ago but after last week's rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) it got even clearer. S&P seems to be replicating the March/ April fractal where after a break-out above the Resistance Zone (on a 1D MA50 rebound), the price rallied to a level within the 2.5 - 3.0 Fibonacci extension zone. Do you agree that 4450 is a realistic target based on this?
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S&P500 Trading plan ahead of the GDPPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy on the next 1D MA50 contact as the sequence is similar to the May 13-16 fractal.
Target: 4330 (the Higher Highs trend-line and symmetrical level since late April).
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S&P500 Buy Signal entering the 4H IchimokuPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price has hit the 4H Ichimoku Cloud with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (red dotted line) right below, while the RSI reached the June 03 low.
Target: 4280 (top of the Channel Up) and if the Higher Highs trend-line breaks, then extension to 4340 (2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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S&P500 Triangle about to breakPattern: Triangle on 4H.
Signal: Buy as long as the Higher Lows trend-line holds.
Target: 4400 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, similar to the March 31 break-out).
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SPY (S&P 500) BULLISH until July/August ELLIOTT WAVE THEORYThe S&P500 ( SPY ) has seen lots of sideways price action and consolidation for the past few weeks or so, but I believe that we could be seeing an impulsive break-out in the near future. This would form the impulsive wave 3 of a final wave 5 push to the upside before the bear markets kick in around the summertime months (July-August).
We will need to see confirmation of a bullish break-out to know that we have entered an impulse wave to the upside. If SPY can break-out over 421-422 (heavy resistance levels), targets of 430+ are very achievable as denoted in the charts. A possible explanation for the recent lack of volume and price direction could be due to the fact that meme stocks ( AMC , GME , BB, BBBY , WKHS , etc.) have taken over the market and soaked up buying interest. Once buying power gets re-directed back into S&P500 stocks, we should see some bullish momentum that is needed to kickstart the impulse wave to the upside.
S&P500 Fractal showing $4255 as targetBoth in terms of RSI/ MACD and the way the price trades on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), S&P500 appears to be replicating the late April - early May fractal. After a bottom on the Support, the price rebounded just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. That is currently just below 4270. I believe that following tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls, as similar price spike will occur.
Most recent S&P500 analysis:
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