S&P500 Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Buy either on the Channel's median or on the Higher Low trend-line or if the 3675 Resistace breaks first. (B) Sell below the 3545.
Target: (A) 3670 (just below the Resistance). If 3675 breaks target 3710 (0.5 Fibonacci extension). (B) The 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Previous S&P500 trade:
Spxsignals
S&P500 Trading PlanPattern: Triangle on 4H.
Signal: (A) Buy as long as the Higher Lows trend-line holds, (B) Sell if it breaks.
Target: (A) 3595 (just below the Lower Highs), (B) 3485 (just above the 4H MA200).
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Can the market rise more during Biden's Presidency than Trump's?This is a simple chart showing the performance of the S&P500 under each President since the Ford administration is 1974.
As you see contrary to popular belief, the stock market in modern times has done (much) better under a Democrat President. Bill Clinton has had the strongest performance with more than +200% in gains from the day he went into the office till the day he left, while George W. Bush the worst and the only negative with -34% in losses.
Also this pattern shows that after every Republican Presidency, the Democrat administration that follows performs (much) better. Carter almost tripled Ford's performance, Clinton more than tripled George H. W. Bush's score. Needless to say what Obama did to George W. Bush's disappointing Presidency.
So in my opinion Wall Street shouldn't be seeing Trump's defeat as a setback, but as the start of a Presidency of more stock market gains than Trump's. History has a tendency to repeat itself. Wouldn't you agree? Let me know in the comments section!
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S&P500 Buy Signal / Strong supporting linePattern: Higher Lows on the 4H chart.
Signal: Buy as the index rebounded not only on the former Lower Highs trend-line (dashed line), but also on the newly formed Higher Lows trend-line.
Target: 3660 (just below the 3675 Resistance).
Recent S&P signals:
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S&P500 Time to break above the Stimulus-Elections Triangle?Since the September 03 Top (All Time High), S&P500 has entered a volatile pattern in the form of a Triangle. The major drivers of this weakness have fundamentally been the U.S. stimulus being delayed and then the elections.
Today the Lower Highs trend-line of this Triangle is being tested. If broken, I expect the 3590 Resistance to be tested, with an extension to the 1.236 Fibonacci at 3620 as it happened with the July 23 extension.
The reason I give more probabilities to an upward break-out from the Triangle is the fact that the MACD on the 1D time-frame has (just) formed a Bullish Cross much earlier than the previous time, something that may accumulate buyers. Also the RSI has broken above its Lower Highs trend-line already, something that was a bullish signal 1 year back. On top of that the MA30 just crossed above the MA50 which on a one month horizon at least, has historically been a bullish signal (we have to go years back to see immediate selling after a 1D MA30/50 Bullish Cross.
Most recent trade on S&P500:
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S&P500 The elections can kickstart a +30% yearly rally!The chart comparison doesn't need much explaining. I compare the price action on the 1W time-frame that led to the 2016 actions with today's sequence.
Both patterns are Megaphones on a descending RSI with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) acting as a Support on the Megaphones late stage. On the November 07 2016 1W candle, S&P rebounded, starting a non-stop rally that didn't give any important pull-back until January 2018, achieving a +36% rise!
Can S&P rebound on this week's election candle, completing the (e) leg?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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S&P500 targeting 3500Pattern: Triangle on 4H.
Signal: Buy on the next MA50 contact as the price breached the 4H MA200 as in October 01. Also the MACD made a strong Bullish Cross, similar in strength with the September 24 - 29.
Target: 3500 (potential contact on the Lower High trend-line of the pattern).
Most recent S&P signal:
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S&P500 got rejected on the 4H MA50! More pain ahead?The index is trading within a Channel Down on the 4H chart and it just got rejected on the most important Resistance test it had: the 4H MA50 (blue line). Even though the 4H MA100 (green line) is in its way as Support, this rejection has the potential to end lower within the Channel and close to the 4H MA200 (orange line) just below 3400.
As you see S&P though has been consolidating within the 4H MA50 and MA200 levels the whole week, and this price action is similar to when it was consolidating again within those two levels (but this time with the MA50 as Support and MA200 as Resistance) in late September/ early October. The RSI action is identical.
Technical risk-management theory indicates that we should engage only if this consolidation range breaks, i.e. either below the MA200 towards 3340 or above the MA50 towards 3550. See how the Fibonacci levels are perfectly aligned.
What do you think? Is there more pain to come?
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S&P500 Will the 4H MA50 be enough again?Last time we saw how the 4H MA50 has effectively worked as a buy entry since the late September break-out:
The recent fall on S&P500 has panicked many but technically it seems like a healthy pull-back taking into account the very aggressive rise since October 06 that broke above the (former) Channel Up.
Moreover, every pull-back after a new Higher High is possible to run on a progressive Fibonacci retracement sequence: first it was 0.918, then 0.786. Both happened to be exactly on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Right now the logical point on this sequence (assuming it is previous Fib - 0.2) would be 0.518. That is exactly on today's low. The 0.618 is slightly lower at 3420 but in my opinion if the index fails to close today above the 0.518 Fib, the true Support to test would be the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Do you think the 4H MA50 will be enough again or S&P will seek the help of the 4H MA200? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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SPX relation with Stocks above 200D MA,70 selling & 24 Buying I did not like this a bit. I do not no way but it seems it was quite hard to analyse !. Even though, it is the 200d MA it gave tops that are not significant at all
that's maybe one of its draw back. high opportunity cost. Or maybe it is not my day of analyzing :-). i did my best LOL.
further examination of this indicator is needed. Also, do not forget that i might missed allot of tops & bottoms :-)
wish you all the best.
S&P500 First 4H Golden Cross since April !** The Golden Cross **
S&P just finished a very bullish week and on the 4H chart it is about to form a Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200). That will be the first time to see a 4H Golden Cross since April 15. That alone is a very bullish sign but it's not the only one we should consider.
** Symmetry on Inverse H&S and Fibonacci levels **
The main pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders, from which the price seems to be detaching from as S&P is recovering from September's fall. In fact so far the recovery seems to be symmetrical as the Highs and Lows of the September downtrend, seem to be filled quite accurately on the current uptrend. The Fibonacci retracement levels appear to be quite aligned.
The first Lower High of the downtrend (September 04) was at 3490. If that level is rejected (or at least leave a margin up to the 0.786 Fib), then it is possible to see a pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Golden Cross is formed, in a similar way it did during the Death Cross (September 15). On any other occasion, it should be a straight rise to the All Time High.
Which of the two do you think it is going to be? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Most recent signal on S&P:
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S&P500 Why do you keep ignoring the 4H MA50?Isn't that true? Since the index broke above it on September 28, the MA50 on the 4H chart has been the most reliable buy entry you could get. So far (counting yesterday) this happened three times. I've mentioned this potential on a few studies with the most recent one as seen below:
Technically every Higher High on this Channel Up is on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension of the previous High. See how consistent this has been on two occasions. This sets the target at 3460.
Based on a recurring RSI sequence (Channel Down accumulation into a strong bullish break-out), the price may be preparing an even stronger jump.
Don't lose sight of the greater picture:
Are you gonna keep ignoring the 4H MA50? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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S&P500 Rebound on the 4H MA50Pattern: 4H MA50 rebound.
Signal: Buy as last time the 4H MA50 was tested and held as Support, a 2 month rally started. RSI and MACD are similar to that fractal of early July.
Target: 3480 (the -0.5 Fib extension).
Most recent S&P signal:
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SPX & MACDs Monthly Relations 18 selling & buying singles 1980it is a dangerous indicator if you are a trading a monthly swings . It lies allot :-) . 30 % picking Tops , better than weekly in some areas and
worse than weekly in others. they are competing,weekly & monthly, who is more worse than the other ;-)
wish you all the best.
S&P500 Buy Signal (long-term)Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from its previous bottom.
Target: 3590 medium-term (Resistance) and for long-term traders 3900 (+21.90% rise from this bottom).
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S&P500 Does the 'Megaphone of Death' compare to that of 1990s?Last week I looked into S&P's monthly chart for clues on the long-term trend (see chart below). Most indicators point towards a new Bull Phase despite the general bearish sentiment in the market this week.
** The 'Megaphone of Death' **
I went a time-frame lower into 1W and found something I wanted to share with you. S&P500 recovered slowly after the 1987 Black Monday crash and before the aggressive Bull Phase of the late 1990s, it had a turbulent period within a Megaphone pattern in the early 1990s. That volatile period resembles the price action since early 2018, which has formed the pattern I previously called 'Megaphone of Death'. The past two plus years have also marked a turbulent period for the markets (after an uninterrupted growth phase of 10 years since the subprime crisis) as the U.S. - China trade war and the COVID pandemic issued Lower Low corrections from the Higher Highs (thus creating the Megaphone).
** Will history repeat itself? **
As you see both Megaphones are fairly similar, their Highs and Lows match. Currently we are on the (g) leg. If history is repeated, the correction of these past few weeks should be over soon and the following quarters should see Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
What do you think? Are you a buyer or a seller on this one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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S&P500 Buy SignalPattern: Rectangle into an Ascending Triangle.
Signal: Buy as the price is consolidating on the Higher Low trend-line.
Target: 3,425 (right below the Resistance).
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S&P We may be starting a new 10 year Bull Cycle!S&P's weakness in recent weeks has got many thinking that the rally since the March correction is over and that maybe a new round of selling is ahead of us. On such occasions I have found it extremely useful to consult very long-term time-frames (such as the 1M in this instance) and look how similar patterns traded in the past.
As you see on the current study, the current phase we are in resembles the post Black Monday (1987) price action (even though the recovery after the March COVID collapse has been quicker than that of Black Monday's). What preceded the two events is also identical as displayed by the a-b-c-d sequence. After the (d) leg that breached the 1M MA200, a long term bullish cycle started that was interrupted violently by Black Monday. That is very similar to how S&P traded after the 2000 Dot Com crash and subprime collapse (a-b-c-d) leading to a long term bullish cycle that was violently cut by the COVID sell-off. The RSI and LMACD (as we are on the logarithmic scale) also print similar readings.
If history repeats itself, S&P is not ahead of another sell-off but instead has much greater probabilities of being at the very start of a new 10 year Bull Market! Do you agree with that?
Of course it has to be said that there was no pandemic back then nor catastrophic economy lockdowns. But it has to be said that catalysts in Economics may come in different shapes while having the exact same impact/ weight on the market and peoples' psychology. After all it is psychology with fear and greed that is moving the stock markets.
So are you feel we are ahead of a new Bull Cycle or are you selling, expecting a new bearish hit? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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