S&P500 The most important test for a long-term uptrend is now.The S&P500 had a strong rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and made a 3 day bearish streak that brought it today on the verge of testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yet again. The last time it made a triple test between 4 days October 03 - 06) and managed to close all candles above it. As a result, if the S&P500 is to recover, it is critical to hold candle closings above or at least near the 1D MA200.
To get a better perspective of the important of the 1D MA200 during uptrends, it is useful to look at previous such corrections that didn't end up in deeper corrections (Bear phases) but instead extended the bullish trend with rebounds on the 1D MA200.
Such recent examples (besides the COVID recovery in 2020) are 2019 and 2018. In 2019 after two 1D candle closings under it (May 31, June 03 2019), the 1D MA200 held multiple times in July and September. Similarly in 2018, only two days (March 23 and April 02 2018) closed marginally below the 1D MA200 in multiple tests.
Bottom-line: the index MUST hold the 1D MA200 in order to overcome the 3 month correction since July and resume the long-term bullish trend it has since the start of the year.
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Spxsignals
SPX500 19/10 MovePair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Bearish Channel Pattern as an Correction in Long Time Frame and Rejection from Lower Trend Line and Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line. Completed " ABC " Correction.
Entry Precautions :
Wait until it Complete its Retest and Rejects
S&P500 Giant Cup and Handle completed? 5000 realistic now?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Down since the mid-July High. Last week though made a strong reversal on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA200, closed the candle in green and is about to do so again for the 2nd straight week today. Ahead of a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross (the first in 7 years), this Channel Down can be interpreted as nothing more than the Handle of a Giant Cup and Handle pattern. We can argue that the whole Inflation Crisis of 2022 has been a Cup and Handle with the subsequent market recovery.
The breaking of the 1W RSI Higher Lows trend-line indicates on the macro level a shift to a new, less aggressive trend, as the 2023 rally isn't easily sustainable without more fundamental catalysts. As a result, as long as the MA Support Cluster holds, we resume being bullish long-term. Target 1 is 4700 (bottom of the All Time High Resistance Zone) and by Q2 2024 Target 2 at 5000.
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S&P500 Potentially made the biggest rebound of the next 12monthsWe have shown numerous times that the S&P500 (SPX) was in a 2.5 month Channel Down/ corrective move but all within the larger Channel Up pattern, which keeps the long-term trend bullish ever since the bottom recovery last October (2022). Much like that bottom which was formed by the rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), 12 months after (October 2023), the index may have just made the most important rebound for another 12-month period.
What was the 1W MA200 then, is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which are about to form a Bullish Cross, the first since September 2016. In fact last week's candle hit the 1W MA100 and rebounded immediately, almost closing the body candle flat, leaving a large wick underneath it, an even stronger reversal than even the October 10 2022 1W candle.
If that wasn't enough, the index hit (and as mentioned rebounded) the Former Resistance Zone of May 2022 through May 2023. In times of such transitions from a Bear to a Bull Cycle, we see the market technically testing former Resistances to make Demand Zones and turn them into Support levels.
On top of that, this week the index just entered into green Ichimoku Cloud territory for the first time since September 05 2022. All this while the 1W RSI bounced off a 18 month Higher Lows trend-line.
It is obvious that if this 5-level Support Zone holds, it can extend the 12-month Channel Up pattern to its next Higher High. Assuming a similar to the previous two bullish legs, +20% rise leg will take place, we expect the S&P500 to target 5000.
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$SPX: The S&P 500's Key Yellow Resistance TargetIn my previous update I discussed that SP:SPX has lost a key support level in the orange support zone. SP:SPX was sitting under resistance as investors waited for Friday jobs data. The strong jobs data led to a spike back up and SP:SPX has successfully regained support at this orange zone again. My current price target for SP:SPX is the yellow resistance trend line.
S&P 500 Analysis. Day trade Signal!!!Hello Everyone. I want share my idea about S&P 500 which will be signal for next week.
After Some pretty bearish momentum we got rejection from daily support. i think S&P will continue fall and i will try to catch that moment, for that i identify liquidity swings which gave me perfect entry area after used my Fibonacci levels, Fibonacci 78.60LVL and daily resistance is same place, trend what i see is still bearish, for that i decide to short it from That zone.
Here is my setup for my trading signal.
Open Short Position - 4332.1
Stop loss - 4358.00
Take Profit - First target at 4238.3 if it will reach then i will trail my stop loss at the Level.
Always Manage your own risk and make your own research!!!
S&P500 It is very important that this Support Cluster holds.The S&P500 (SPX) is testing the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 12-month Channel Up pattern. It is vital for the uptrend that the following Support Cluster holds, as if broken, the next Demand/ Support Zone is seen considerably lower, in the low 3800s.
Back to the Support Zone. Besides the bottom of the Channel Up, we have the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) moving parallel to that and has been unbroken since March 24. More importantly, the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) a former Resistance turned into Support after May's break-out, is marginally below the 1D MA200 and on a former Resistance Zone, which in the past 18 months, only broken twice.
As long as the price closes 1D candles above this critical Support cluster, we expect a short-term (at least) rise to test the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 4430. If the Support fails, expect a greater and perhaps quicker/ more aggressive decline towards 3830 and the former Support Zone.
Notice how the 1D RSI pattern resembles the August - September 2022 correction.
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VIX and S&P500 This is why stocks may rise now.Following yesterday's green stock market reaction, we compare on today's analysis VIX (Volatility Index) to the S&P500 (SPX) price action on the 1D time-frame. Our goal is to find clues to how the Volatility Index can affect the stocks.
As you can see, VIX is trading within an Ascending Triangle which 2 days ago got rejected on its top (Higher Highs) trend-line. All this while its Lower Highs trend-line since September 2022 (1 year back) sits right above it. At the same time the S&P500 index found the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of its Channel Down (while the Higher Lows trend-line since the October 2022 market bottom sits right below) and on first impression appears to be rebounding. Being negatively correlated, the more VIX drops, i.e. market volatility calms/ decreases, the more likely it is for the stock market to rise, at least for the short-term towards the Channel Down top (similarly VIX to the Triangle's Support).
In order to see it resume the long-term bullish trend, VIX most likely needs to break its Support. It is not unlikely as the market may respect the long-term Lower Highs (similarly Higher Lows for SPX) and hold it as new rejection point, but for the time being we have to keep our perspective on the short-term patterns (Ascending Triangle and Channel Down respectively) until shown otherwise.
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S&P500 Entered the 2 year High Supply/Demand Zone. Will it hold?Time to leave the short-term charts for S&P500 (SPX) aside and look again at the long-term ones as the price failed last week to recover the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is extending this week the decline towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
** Higher Lows and 2-year Supply/ Demand Zone **
It hasn't yet hit the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom but has entered a 2 year High Supply/ Demand Zone, which has acted as the strongest Pivot Belt since October 2021, with 4 registered holds (green arrows) and 4 rejections (red arrows). It is clear that the market considered it a key during the previous Bear Cycle as well as the Bull Cycle.
** Inflation Crisis vs Subprime mortgage Crisis **
As you can see on the chart, we compare this Inflation Crisis price action with the bottom and subsequent recovery of the Subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 - 2010. The curved bottom on the 1D RSI suggests that we are so far aligned to a certain extent with the first susbtantial correction of the recovery which on May 06 2010 hit (and breached) the 1D MA200. The bottom was priced 2 months later on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
** So what now? **
The 0.382 Fibonacci on today's sequence is on 4185, marginally above the bottom of the Pivot Zone and almost where the 1D MA200 is currently. This presents us with the probability that if the Higher Lows fails and the 1D MA200 breaks, the market has high chances to consider the bottom of the 2-year Pivot Zone as a High Demand level again. If that happens, we will be buyers for as long as 1D candles close above the bottom of the Zone. Based on the 2009 - 2010 price action, it can rise towards the -0.236 Fib ext and reach the 4820 All Time High (ATH) by Q2 2024.
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SPX to continue down?As I explained last week, there is a high chance for SP500 to drop to important 4250-4275 zone support.
On Friday the index dropped under the short-term trend line and, after consolidation on Monday and Tuesday, yesterday we had a strong drop.
The overall picture is pretty bearish at this point and another 150 points drop becomes very probable.
In conclusion, as long as the index stays under 4500, traders could look to sell rallies in search of a good risk: reward.
SPX Market Crash (upcoming) - 35% why?Hi Everyone,
A summary of the last 5 recessions since 1981... These recessions triggered declines of at least 20%. The Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009 was the one that most affected the market with a decrease of about 57%. Regarding macroeconomics, the Americans are currently implementing a monetary tightening policies and have announced a final interest rate hike before the end of the year, so in my opinion, a recession is now inevitable.
The SPX is currently forming a tweezer top on the 3-month timeframe... In my opinion, a 35% decline is possible to test the M Neckline (entry gate).
S&P500 Ascending Triangle giving a bottom buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us last week an accurate quick buy signal (see chart below) but then got sold-off to a new 3-week Low:
The price hit yesterday during that sell-off the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Ascending Triangle pattern that is in place since the August 04 High (which created its 4540 top/ Resistance). This is a short-term buy signal and will be confirmed if the 4H MACD completes the emerging Bullish Cross.
The immediate Resistance is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone and the short-term is the Lower Highs trend-line since the September 01 High. That will be our target, aiming at a +1.77% rise (proportionally less than the previous) at 4490.
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S&P500 Buy signal within the Bullish Megaphone.The S&P500 index (SPX) is attempting to stage a rise after hitting the bottom of the Bullish Megaphone. This is after the formation of the Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such pattern since March 31. In addition, the 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 level. This is a strong combination of bullish signals for the medium-term.
As long as the Higher Lows (bottom) of the Megaphone hold, we are bullish, targeting 4640 (Resistance 2). If it closes a 4H candle below the Higher Lows, we will close the buy and open a sell instead targeting the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line) at 4375. If after an initial rebound, it gets rejected on either the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) or 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we will re-sell and target the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) at 4220.
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S&P500 Huge buy signal confirmedFollowing last week's buy signal (chart below) on the S&P500 index (SPX), we shift our attention on the 1W time-frame where the new long-term buy signal has just been confirmed:
As you see, the price closed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) yesterday, invalidating any bias for further decline and confirming the resuming of the long-term bullish trend within the Channel Up pattern since the October 2022 bottom.
The 1W RSI rebounded exactly on its Higher Lows trend-line, giving a strong bottom signal where previous rebounds have been completed at least a +9.85% rise. As a result, we update our long-term target to 4750.
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S&P500 Target achieved. Now looking for a rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 4350 Sell Target that we set on last week's idea (see chart below) and immediately started a two day rebound:
This rebound is taking place just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Resistance. We've mentioned countless times that the long-term pattern is a Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and this rebound is taking place after the 1D RSI hit the 33.30, which was the level where the March 13 bottom was priced.
As a result, the current level is a strong candidate for a new long-term buy, targeting 4640 (March 29 2022 High), despite the fact that the previous two correctional waves to a Lower Low declined at least by -9.00%. The bullish confirmation will come when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross. It just touched the top of its 9 month Support Zone.
If however the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will add a sell for short-term profit, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at the bottom of the Channel Up at 4220 (just above a projected -9.00% decline) and then add a second (and final) buy that will naturally target 4640 as well.
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S&P500 On the 1D MA50 after 3 months. Will it hold?Last week we gave a sell continuation signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) after the price failed to break above the short-term Resistance of 4H MA50 (see chart below):
As the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last Thursday for the first time in 3 months, the index found its first long-term Support level. Along with being near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of Channel Up 2 (dotted pattern within the multi-month Channel Up 1), we can attempt the first buy position again and target 4640 (March 29 2022 High). This is a similar situation as May 24 and May 04 (blue circles).
If a 1D candle closes below it though, we will be quick to take the loss and sell the break-out towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 4350. That is the second long-term Support level, which if broken opens the way for the final one, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The most optimal long-term buy entry will be if the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross within the 2023 Support Zone. Potentially that could be near the 1D MA200 and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of Channel Up 1.
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S&P500 Still bearish unless the 4H MA50 breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) is within a corrective wave in the form of a Channel Down, which may have found a Support on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but as long as it trades below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it remains bearish. As a result our target is 4430 on a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
If however it closes a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, we will buy instead and target 4600 (just below Resistance 1). The 4H RSI Higher Lows (which is a bullish divergence in contrast to the Lower Lows of the Channel Down), favor this scenario.
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S&P500 This new Channel Up can lead it to the All Time High.The S&P500 (SPX) index has been rising non-stop and appears not to be influenced by yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The price reached however the top of Channel Up 1, the pattern that has been driving the price action since the October 13 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. This calls for a technical pull-back similar to the December 01 2022 and February 02 2023 Higher Highs, however that can only be confirmed after the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, which is exactly what happened on those fractals.
Until then, and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting (has been unbroken since March 29), the more recent Channel Up 2, can lead the price to the 4820 All Time High (ATH) of January 04 2022. Of course before that Resistance 1 (March 29 2022 High) is present at 4640, so since Channel Up 2 is also on its top (Higher Highs trend-line), we can consider a Megaphone (sideways) consolidation, similar to what took place in April. As long as its hits the 1D MA50 and rebounds, we will be bullish, targeting 4820 on the new bullish leg (green arc).
On the other hand if the index does close a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 and the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, we will sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 4250.
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Bing Short on SPX in progressIn my previous post on SPX ( link attached below the description ), I explained how we are going to see a rejection on this uptrend soon and we beginning to see that now.
In this post I will explain how I am playing this short setup.
In the previous post I had a pitchfork. I simplified it with three parallel channels, one larger and two inside it in its upper and lower half so we now have four rising trendlines which will be our point of interest when Price Gets there.
In the image below I have highlighted the properties of these trend lines based on past price action within the channel, which you can observe yourself.
I have indicated three take profit levels on the main chart. I don't think TP1 would be necessary as I don't expect the trendline to hold based on its past behavior.
TP2 and TP3 are my main targets, which is where I will look for signs of a nice bounce back up.
If you observe the channel, we have never really resumed a trend back up without creating a double bottom on the one of the lower two trendline in the chart as highlighted in the image below, if that happens, we resume the uptrend to new highs. That's when you take a swing long position on SPX.
On the other side if TP3 doesn't hold we are looking at a potential change of trend a macro scale, but I won't give up on the upside just after the break as we could possibly see deviation and bounce back in the channel after testing the support area as highlighted in the main chart.
What happens if we lose 4300 level, we go way down, I will leave that detailed analysis for another post.
Buy STOCKS heavily and dump GOLD according to this ratio.It is not the first time we use the SPX/GOLD ratio (S&P500 to XAUUSD) for a macro analysis and certainly each time it manages to offer us different and very helpful insights. This time on the 1W time-frame, the ratio is consolidating these past 2 weeks but after having broken in late May - early June above the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line.
That alone is a strong bullish signal and a look in the past 10 years shows that this is a cyclical pattern that has already been formed twice. The SPX/GOLD ratio following its market peak, enters a Descending Triangle (which is during a time of risk crisis in the markets) where Gold starts to outperform the S&P500 (stocks), a natural move as the yellow metal is a safe haven.
Then as the Triangle's Support holds, the price breaks above the Lower Highs and starts the new Bull Phase. Exception is of course the March 2020 COVID crash, which is a Black Swan event and doesn't count as technical. If it wasn't for that, the price would continue breaking above the Lower Highs as the rest of the fractals. In addition, the 1D RSI breaking above its own Lower Highs trend-line, is a similar buy signal.
Currently, since the ratio is significantly above not just the Lower Highs trend-line (RSI as well) but also the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), we can expect it to reach the 2.68 Resistance within 6 months.
Naturally, as the title says, this means for investors to buy stocks at the expense of holding Gold. This is translated that we are in a Bullish Phase (risk-on) where buying assets like stocks offer more return than Gold, which should be converted to riskier assets.
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S&P500 Short and medium term sell potentialS&P500 (SPX) made a yearly High last week and a Higher High on the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom and guided the market out of the 2022 Bear Cycle. This Higher High opens up two sell possibilities one on the short and one on the medium term.
The short term indicates that a Megaphone pattern similar to April 04 - May 04 is emerging that targets the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as part of its Lower Low. That would also test the Internal Higher Lows trend-line, so it makes sense to short and target 4320. This is where we will attempt a medium-term buy targeting 4640 (March 29 2022 High) but will only hold it as long as candles keep closing above the 1D MA50.
If even one 1D candle closes below, it will activate the medium-term sell possibility and we will sell targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as well at 4150, similar to December 22 2022.
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SPX medium term pathwayThis update will be quick, Im very lazy this weekend.
ES short term was already posted earlier today.
There are 2 pathways Im following:
1 - H&S pattern, visible on the chart. That pattern if triggered will make full 5 down into early next year low to finish the whole move down from Jan high.
(Fits perfectly with VIX sky rocket from its below 20 level)
2 - Finishing the C wave up with A being over and B about to start.
Im still looking for 3750 level being hit to close the gap and one more rally over 4200 from there.
This scenario should play out quick or I will take it off the list if B is not reached by mid Dec.
Then a good rally into Jan high above 4200, check the number of the C ending on the chart.
Fibs align perfectly with this pathway!
We have a full Moon on Dec 8th, usually markets tend to make a high or a low at or around the full Moon.
It seems we are going to get one here early next week.
My best pathway is down to 4k tomorrow and rally from there into Tuesday high. There is a huge SPY put wall at 400 for tomorrow, Im sure it will hold on any test tomorrow, so if tested it will be a perfect long entry with a 15-20 points stop.
Or if 4k is broken then we should see 3940-50SPX zone tested which is the strongest support for the whole bull move here, should hold on at least 2 tests imo.
Also VP (volume Profile) line is around 3960SPX level, a perfect magnet.
So my next week game plan is - buy tomorrow low, sell Tuesday high (might stretch to Wed am high), then down we go into a rabbit hole with ideal target at 3745-50SPX.
Main bear bull support line is at 3940-50SPX level for the next week! Below it and this move up is over and the price will retrace back to 3750.
Have a very profitable week!