SPX has crossed 200 DMA for the fourth timeS&P500 has crossed above the 200 DMA for the fourth time.
It is a critical rejection zone that will decide the fate of bulls vs bears.
It would be better to wait for price to move above 4 % of 200 DMA before taking a bullish view due to the past rejections at 3.35% and 2.62% approximately.
I would consider 4,132 level to be safe for long trades and would stay bearish below this level.
Spxsignals
S&P500 Can this divergence from 2008 and 2001 save the day?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up as we showed on our last analysis, struggling to break above its 1D MA50:
On the current analysis, we switch back to the longer-term dynamics and compare the 2022/23 correction (so far) to the previous Bear Cycles of 2008/09 and 2001/02, using the parameters of Inflation (red trend-line) and WTI Oil (black trend-line).
At the moment, the S&P500 is above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1W RSI on Higher Lows, within an Ascending Triangle pattern since the May 16 Low. This can make all the difference during the current inflation crisis. The reason is that this pattern is different from the 1W RSI Higher Lows within a Falling Wedge of 2008/09 and just the Lower Highs of 2001/02.
As you see in 2008, the index was supported on the 1W MA200 as well and posted a counter-trend rally before eventually breaking it, and the break below the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), practically opened the way for the more violent second part of the Bear Cycle. Same with 2001 where however the 1W MA200 didn't have as a significant role.
Inflation in all cases started to drop significantly after the Bear Cycle started, Oil seems to precede/ lead this fall, and (Oil's) current structure looks more like that (bottom fractal) of January 2009 and January 2002. Mere coincidence that we are now in January 2022?
Right now both the 1W RSI structure as well as the candles are different than before, being evidently slightly more bullish (so far). Can this RSI bullish divergence be enough to keep S&P500 above the 1W MA200 and start to rise to its first Higher High, effectively invalidating the Bear Cycle or history will repeat itself with another violent break below the 1W MA300?
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Will SP500 rise to 4300?Although, in my opinion, there is not any fundamental reason behind it, SP500 could start rising in this first part of the year.
There is a very good saying between traders: "trade what you see, not what you think" and, what I see are 3 weeks of rejection from the 3800 zone.
With this in mind, if this 3800 low remains intact, we can have a nice rise from SP500 and, if the index manages to clear also 4k zone, 4300 resistance is a reasonable target.
SPX- Which way?After the break back under 4k, SP500 started to consolidate and is trading in 100 points up and down for almost 3 weeks now.
The overall trend is bearish so a down break could be next. In such a case, the recent 3.5k low is exposed. This scenario has a negation above 3950.
On the other hand, a break above the resistance of the range could lead to some gains and even to 4200.
For now, to wait and see could be the best approach.
S&P500 at the bottom of October Channel Up looking for directionThe S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 16. This has now completed a 3-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a rebound, there is no confirmation as the 1D MACD hasn't made a Bullish Cross while the price remains also below the 4H MA200 (green trend-line).
S&P500 needs to break above the 4H MA200 and make the MACD Bullish Cross, in order to invalidate the Lower High it formed on the September 13 rejection that eventually led to a more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September, which would also mean breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 of the previous year (2022), essentially the Bear Cycle Resistance. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
On the bright side, even a neutral price action within the Channel Up can form a 1D Golden Cross at the end of January, which will of course be a bullish signal.
Our targets above the 4055 Lower High are 4145 (top of Resistance Zone) and 4300 (Higher High of the October Channel Up). Below the Channel Down we target (as mentioned) the 3700 Support.
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S&P500 Running out of time and space. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) hit again the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up following two straight rejections on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This completes a 2-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a small rebound early today, so far it remains even below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), where it had a clear rejection on December 22 as well as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom. Notice the 4H Death Cross on both patterns.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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S&P500 Repeating early September. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding since yesterday after the 7 day fall followng the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it rebounded near the bottom of the October Channel Up, so far it remains below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as well as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. We are now slightly past the 4H Death Cross. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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DeGRAM | SPX500 bears are in control?SPX fell on fundamentals before rebounding from dynamic resistance.
It will probably try to pullback to the previous resistance zone .
Notice, how the price then goes down after a false break of the pullback (green box).
The 4000 level is a great level for taking short trades.
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S&P500 Crunch time, either holds or the Bear Market continuesThe S&P500 index (SPX) has has two major rejections since December 13, as despite breaking (only intra-day) above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04, it got rejected marginally above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the next day on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is a double failure to break-out and considering that the 1W MA50 had the precious Lower High rejection on August 16, this is far from ideal for buyers.
On top of that, the RSI on the 1W time-frame got rejected on the Resistance Zone that formed the last two Lower Highs and is holding since March 28. As a result, with the price breaking today below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in over a month (since November 10), we are ahead of critical crossroads.
Either it holds and keeps 1D candles closing inside the Channel Up (dotted lines) that started on the October 13 Low or it breaks below and repeats the patterns of the April/ May and August/ September sell-offs. As you see those sell sequences have very distinct structures. A break below the Channel Up should test the Support Zone below where we could see a temporary rebound back above the 1D MA50 towards the 1D MA200, in a Cup formation. A closing below the Support Zone, confirms going for the October Low.
In the case that the Channel Up holds and closes all candles inside it, a rebound is still limited to the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line. In order to resume buying, we need to see a candle closing above the 1W MA50, unlike December 13. In that case we can see the index test the 4330 (August 16 High) Resistance by March.
At this point, it is worth noting that the 1W RSI has also a clear Higher Lows trend-line that caught the previous market Lows and in fact is a Bullish Divergence. Keep an eye on that as a bounce on that Higher Lows trend-line can again give us the new Low and if it indicates indeed a long-term Bullish Divergence, this time it may be a Higher Low on the index as well.
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S&P500 rebounding on the 4H MA200 and Channel Up bottom?The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding today after making a Double Test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This is just over the Channel Up pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
The sequence resembles the November 04 - 10 Higher Lows fractal (also based on the 4H MACD) and what happened then was an instant rise to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up.
This time, especially ahead of Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision, the index is limited first to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and then obviously the Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding (and forming all of the 2022 High rejections) since January 04. Notice that on the (red) 4090 - 4100 Resistance Zone, we also have the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the last major MA standing.
As a result if the price breaks above the 4H MA50, we can take the bullish break-out signal and target just below this highly important Resistance cluster at 4080. A break above the 1W MA50 can be used as a buy continuation signal and target the top of the Channel Up (4170 - 4190) short-term. On the other hand, a closing below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), which is the medium-term Support, will be taken as a bearish break-out signal targeting the 3700 Support Zone.
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BITCOIN and S&P500 Has a 10 year Bull phase just started?A 1 year correction which is nothing but common throughout Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) existence, has done its work well in spreading fear and doubt at the market during this inflationary stock crisis in 2022. In times like this what helps the most is to maintain a long-term perspective and look at how history reacted in similar situations.
We thought that nothing can help us get a better grasp at the situation than look into how Bitcoin compares to the major stock index the S&P500 (SPX). On this 1M time-frame, Bitcoin is displayed by the orange trend-line while the S&P500 by the blue. We are looking into the S&P500's price action since the Great Depression. As you see the index repeats through history four major phases:
* The Bear Phase (red), where the index gets into a Megaphone pattern and has two major correction sequences. It breaks initially below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and then below the 1M MA200 (black trend-line).
* The Accumulation Phase (blue), where the index starts recovering from the Bear Phase and breaks above both the 1M MA100 and MA200, turning sideways. This is technically the most efficient/ earliest available level to enter the market.
* The Expansion Phase (yellow), where the index established trading above the 1M MA100/200 (never breaks them until the next Bear Phase) and makes the first multi-year rise. This Phase is marked by three "smaller" correction periods (red ellipses).
* The Bull Phase (green), where the index recovers from the last small correction and rises aggressively to form the top before the new Bear Phase. It tends to last around 10 years.
This year's correction (2022) is the third one of the Expansion Phase and as the price remains above the 1M MA100, it is more likely that with the correction already completed, S&P500 has entered its new Bull Phase.
The chart clearly shows that Bitcoin's 12 year period of immense growth has only been during the S&P500's Accumulation and Expansion Phases. This suggests that we may haven't seen yet it's strongest growth to come during the stock market's new Bull Phase! The correlation of Bitcoin's tops and bottoms to those of the S&P500 is more than obvious.
Most market participants say that this time is different due to the soaring inflation and aggressive rate hikes. But hasn't this also been the narrative in the late 70s? Still the market found the mechanisms to grow in the Expansion Phase that followed and the new technologies (internet etc) to inflate it to immense highs in the 90s until the eventual crashes of the 00s. It may seem like a different reason each time but the behavior is always cyclical with repeating patterns and phases, the narrative in the past 100 years can be whatever the news decide it to be. But the market will continue printing and printing the same patterns as human behavior stays the same.
So what do you think, are we about to witness the growth of a lifetime on both Bitcoin and stocks in the next 10 years? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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S&P500 One last round of pain before the Bull Cycle?The S&P500 index (SPX) closed the worst week since October on a not so encouraging note as the failed to break and got rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A simple comparison with the major corrections of 2002/03, 1982/83 and 1962/63 shows that as long as the index remains below the 1W MA50, the Bear Cycle is in effect.
A common characteristic among all 4 sequences is that the 1W RSI is on Higher Lows while the index (with the exception of 1962/63) is on Lower Lows, i.e. a Bullish Divergence.
The exception of 1962/63 is the most optimistic one as after a mont of sideways price action on the 1W MA50 (green circle), the index eventually rose aggressively and recovered the High.
The 1982/83 period is the most pessimistic as while the RSI made one last (3rd) Higher Low, the S&P500 made a Lower Low (red circle) before rebounding above the 1W MA50 and into the new Bull Cycle.
The 2002/03 sequence is a neutral one as the index did get rejected on the 1W MA50 one last time but made a Higher Low (blue circle) and broke above the 1W MA50 1.5 month later.
Which of the three scenarios do you think will prevail this time?
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This level on VIX can make the S&P500 finally break bullishThis is the S&P500 on the top chart compared to the Volatility Index (VIX) at the bottom. As you see, VIX rebounded on the 19.20 Support level that was formed by the August 12 Low and that made the S&P500 get rejected on its Lower Highs trend-line that is holding since the start of 2022.
If that upward trend on VIX continues, S&P500 should trend towards its previous Low and if VIX tests its October High, then most likely it will be translated into a Lower Low for the S&P500.
However, a break below VIX's Low, into the Green Zone, should make the S&P500 finally crosses above this 1 year Resistance. Further, a VIX break below the 16.35 Low (formed by the January 04 Low), should technically confirm the long-term bullish break-out. This can be as early as the start of 2023 if VIX's Channel Down is extended.
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S&P500 Best medium-term Buy Signal but bearish if this breaks.The S&P500 hit today the 3915 Support level that was formed on the November 17 Low. This also hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that started on the October 13 market low. Technically this is the most optimal buy level on the medium-term, which should test first the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) and then the Lower Highs trend-line since the start of the year, where the index got rejected on December 01.
That rejection however is far from ideal as it is the trend-line where the previous three sell-off started on the long-term. The signal that makes it even more bearish is the 1D MACD which formed a Bearish Cross.
As a result, if the price closes below the 3915/ Channel Up Support cluster, we'll have a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term. Closing below it, should kick-start an even bigger correction to at least the 1W MA200 (grey trend-line).
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S&P500 Everyone watches this Resistance but nobody notices this!The S&P500 index broke last week above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 21 but so far has failed to touch the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), getting rejected once again on the Lower Highs Zone (red) since the All Time High (ATH) of January 04 2022. That is the (obvious) Resistance that everyone is paying attention too but nobody seems to be noticing the support pattern that may change S&P's fortunes around.
That is, as you see on the chart, the curved Support Zone (dashed) that is connecting all the Lower Lows since December 2021 and provided all counter-trend rallies so far. A rejection now on the ATH Resistance Zone, can pull the price back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and below towards this curved Support. A bounce there, confirms the pattern and would make the first Higher Low since December 03 2021! If it breaks though, we do expect the 3490 Low to be tested, even for S&P500 to move to a Lower Low and extend the Bear Cycle.
If the price reverses now though and neutralize Thursday's rejection by breaking above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line, we think that the 1W MA50 still won't be enough. Ideally we would like to see a break above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (4150), in order to call for a confirmed bullish break-out. The reason is simple. In the previous two counter-trend rallies/ rebounds of this Bear Cycle, the rebound never broke about the 0.786 Fib, not on the March 29 Lower High and neither on the August 16 Lower High. A break now, would make us turn bullish targeting the 4330 Resistance 1 (August 16 High).
A main reason we give more probabilities to a bullish break-out now, even though we've honored this Lower Highs zone with our previous analyses in 2022, is that the RSI on the 1W time-frame is flashing a huge Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows since May 23 while in the same period the price action has been on Lower Lows.
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SP500 is facing a lot of resistances. Warning for bulls!Since the spike low at 3500 on 13 Oct, SP500 had a pretty good run and has risen around 15%.
However, fundamentally we are not out of the woods yet, not by far, and also technically there are big warnings on our chart.
First, the rise is clearly corrective in nature and is unfolding in a rising wedge, more often than not, this leads to reversal and resumption of the overall trend, which is down.
Second, between 4100 and 4200 there are a lot of horizontal resistances.
Third, the index is now in the zone of the falling trend line that started in January this year.
All this for me translates into a greater probability of a fall to 3800 than to rise above 4300
Selling rallies from this point on also could have a pretty nice R: R for swing traders.
S&P500 What crisis? We're still in a cyclical Bull.This is the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame illustrating key levels and zones using the Fibonacci Channel.
We focus on the price action and pattern created following the last major crisis, the 2008 housing crash. As you see, since that Bear Cycle correction, S&P500 has been trading within a steady Channel Up and with the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels, we see that the price action has been concentrated almost entirely within the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone. The January market top was above it and made the index strongly correct back into the Zone. In September the price broke below the 0.236 Fib for the first time since May 2020 and the COVID crash and buying demand seems to have kicked in almost immediately as the index is up more than +16%.
As a reference, we would like to compare this Channel Up to the one after the 1974 bottom:
As you see on the chart above, it was again the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone that dominated the majority of the price action since the 1974 bottom and the August 1987 top that hit and got rejected at the top of the Channel (Fib 1.0) was what led to the October 1987 mega flash crash of 'Black Monday'. Then the index continued rising within the upper Fib Zone of 0.618 - 1.0 even more tightly within 0.786 - 1.0, until it eventually broke above it again in June 1995 in the sequence that led and accelerated the Dotcom Bubble of the 90s into the Crash of 2000.
What really helps in identifying the price action's bottom, hence long-term buy entries, within this post 2009 Channel Up, is the 1M RSI. Since June 2010 it has a Support Zone (green that) was hit and started strong rebounds 6 times (including this September). At the same time, there is an evident Lower Lows trend-line since May 2012 that has had contacts turning into rebounds 5 times.
All the above occurrences combined (price rebounding on the 0.236 Fib, RSI on the Support Zone and Lower Lows trend-line), are a strong bullish mix giving the best buy signal since the March 2020 COVID crash.
And above all, it shows that, at least for the time being, the S&P500 index is still in a Cyclical Bull market and even more so, far from being overbought even on a long-term multi-year scale!
Are you still bearish based on the above?
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SPX pathway to close the CPI gap if the FED does not pivotI dont see the FED to pivot any time soon.
It can be another Jackson Hall event which will start a new directional move.
My ideal pathway is the low around Dec OPEX and high early Jan (might be the 200MA test)
Must hold numbers on closing level for tomorrow are:
- 3944.50-45
- 3906.50
Both are maj support zones.
Second number fits the best with other trendlines align around 3906-14SPX level
If the price will get a 4k test in am, it will be a perfect short for a move down to 3944SPX a min if not more.
Both long and short setups are coming, be patient if not in a trade already, be patient if you're
I gave you the levels to watch, feel free to use them for your own homework.
Have a good night.
S&P500 Potential 4HMA50 rejection. Resistance & Support in focusOn this analysis we diverge from our usual long-term outlook and instead we look at the (short-term) 4H time-frame where the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is in focus. S&P500 (SPX) broke below it since yesterday and not only has it failed to recover it but so far has a clear rejection.
As long as we trade below it, the first target will be the 3915 Support where a closing (1D) below it, sets course for the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the ultimate Support level of uptrends. A complete Bearish Cross (currently very close to) on the 1D MACD, will largely confirm that view.
On the other hand, a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a bullish break-out signal and would target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and Resistance 1 at 4175 in extension.
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SPX DailyThere is a potential H&S on longer time frame I mentioned before, noted on this chart as well
Must hold support for the next week is at 3898-3920SPX. Has to hold on any test, otherwise the price will revisit the Oct 13th gap very quickly
My ideal pathway is bottom on the 1st (I still see month of Nov close red at least compare to the previous month) and bounce into the 6th-7th high.
If cycles gets inverted, then we should see the low tomorrow and high on the 1st, then it will be a first low on the 6-7th
The best scenario for the EOM trade is we see low prices tomorrow am and bounce into 29th high.
Then (after the 29th high) reversal down (strong) for the 1st of Dec low.
30th is showing up as a panic day on all indexes, so expect a strong move in direction of the 29th close.
- The price might get the gap closed on the 29th (ideal pathway) and continue in a strong move down.
Ideally its closes in direction down, it will be a good confirmation for the price going lower into the 1st low.
- Ideal target is 3744-55SPX or Oct 13th gap close
After the 1st low, it gets tricky. Its either makes a low on the 6th and up into the week of Dec 26th or, ideally a high and down into EOY.
Jan seems to be the monthly low of this entire move down from the ATH, perfect 1 year celebration.
Intraday low might not come till Mar or even May.
Here is zoomed in chart link
There is not much of a support below 3866 till 3744SPX, its the must hold Bear/Bull support for the next week.
If looking for the extensions, I have resistance at
- 4037
- 4045
- 4068-76 (main target)
- 4118-20 (Maj resistance)
Will be tweeting my other simple chart as can't attach it here.
Im swing short and will use the next high to exit all the remaining protective longs I have.
Have a great and profitable week everyone!
SPX 4H Analysis📈Trade Idea📉
🟡 #S&P500 Index 4H
✍️We can have two trading scenarios for this index. Considering that S&P is in the Equilibrium range, it can move as a continuation movement (CP) to the supply ranges in the chart (Premium), of course, with the condition of penetrating and closing a four-hour high candlestick (PDH-PWH). In this case, consider two scenarios for trading.
In the first scenario, you can use the supply ranges specified in the chart to activate sell orders.
The second scenario is for traders who are looking for a long stop in this index, they can use the block order limits specified in the chart. For trading in these areas, you can place your trade as a limit by observing the stop loss.
🟢Minor Order Block >🟢3640$ -3684$
🟢Major Order Block >🟢3740$ -3780$
🔴Minor Order block >🔴4080$ - 4120$
🔴Major Order Block> 🔴4165$-41250$
📊Poc (Point of Control) : 3960$
⚠️ Margin 1% For each position.
⚠️Use Tight StopLoss.
✍️Desert Eagle
📊Analysis Method SMART Money
Concept + ICT+ Volume Profile
(DYOR)
📆11.27.2022
⚠️This Analysis will be Updated⚠️
💸Good Luck Traders.