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SP500 is facing a lot of resistances. Warning for bulls!Since the spike low at 3500 on 13 Oct, SP500 had a pretty good run and has risen around 15%. However, fundamentally we are not out of the woods yet, not by far, and also technically there are big warnings on our chart. First, the rise is clearly corrective in nature and is unfolding in a rising wedge, more often than not, this leads to reversal and resumption of the overall trend, which is down. Second, between 4100 and 4200 there are a lot of horizontal resistances. Third, the index is now in the zone of the falling trend line that started in January this year. All this for me translates into a greater probability of a fall to 3800 than to rise above 4300 Selling rallies from this point on also could have a pretty nice R: R for swing traders.
SPREADEX:SPXShort
by Mihai_Iacob
3
S&P500 What crisis? We're still in a cyclical Bull.This is the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame illustrating key levels and zones using the Fibonacci Channel. We focus on the price action and pattern created following the last major crisis, the 2008 housing crash. As you see, since that Bear Cycle correction, S&P500 has been trading within a steady Channel Up and with the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels, we see that the price action has been concentrated almost entirely within the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone. The January market top was above it and made the index strongly correct back into the Zone. In September the price broke below the 0.236 Fib for the first time since May 2020 and the COVID crash and buying demand seems to have kicked in almost immediately as the index is up more than +16%. As a reference, we would like to compare this Channel Up to the one after the 1974 bottom: As you see on the chart above, it was again the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone that dominated the majority of the price action since the 1974 bottom and the August 1987 top that hit and got rejected at the top of the Channel (Fib 1.0) was what led to the October 1987 mega flash crash of 'Black Monday'. Then the index continued rising within the upper Fib Zone of 0.618 - 1.0 even more tightly within 0.786 - 1.0, until it eventually broke above it again in June 1995 in the sequence that led and accelerated the Dotcom Bubble of the 90s into the Crash of 2000. What really helps in identifying the price action's bottom, hence long-term buy entries, within this post 2009 Channel Up, is the 1M RSI. Since June 2010 it has a Support Zone (green that) was hit and started strong rebounds 6 times (including this September). At the same time, there is an evident Lower Lows trend-line since May 2012 that has had contacts turning into rebounds 5 times. All the above occurrences combined (price rebounding on the 0.236 Fib, RSI on the Support Zone and Lower Lows trend-line), are a strong bullish mix giving the best buy signal since the March 2020 COVID crash. And above all, it shows that, at least for the time being, the S&P500 index is still in a Cyclical Bull market and even more so, far from being overbought even on a long-term multi-year scale! Are you still bearish based on the above? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
10
SPX pathway to close the CPI gap if the FED does not pivotI dont see the FED to pivot any time soon. It can be another Jackson Hall event which will start a new directional move. My ideal pathway is the low around Dec OPEX and high early Jan (might be the 200MA test) Must hold numbers on closing level for tomorrow are: - 3944.50-45 - 3906.50 Both are maj support zones. Second number fits the best with other trendlines align around 3906-14SPX level If the price will get a 4k test in am, it will be a perfect short for a move down to 3944SPX a min if not more. Both long and short setups are coming, be patient if not in a trade already, be patient if you're I gave you the levels to watch, feel free to use them for your own homework. Have a good night.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
S&P500 Potential 4HMA50 rejection. Resistance & Support in focusOn this analysis we diverge from our usual long-term outlook and instead we look at the (short-term) 4H time-frame where the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is in focus. S&P500 (SPX) broke below it since yesterday and not only has it failed to recover it but so far has a clear rejection. As long as we trade below it, the first target will be the 3915 Support where a closing (1D) below it, sets course for the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the ultimate Support level of uptrends. A complete Bearish Cross (currently very close to) on the 1D MACD, will largely confirm that view. On the other hand, a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a bullish break-out signal and would target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and Resistance 1 at 4175 in extension. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
SPX DailyThere is a potential H&S on longer time frame I mentioned before, noted on this chart as well Must hold support for the next week is at 3898-3920SPX. Has to hold on any test, otherwise the price will revisit the Oct 13th gap very quickly My ideal pathway is bottom on the 1st (I still see month of Nov close red at least compare to the previous month) and bounce into the 6th-7th high. If cycles gets inverted, then we should see the low tomorrow and high on the 1st, then it will be a first low on the 6-7th The best scenario for the EOM trade is we see low prices tomorrow am and bounce into 29th high. Then (after the 29th high) reversal down (strong) for the 1st of Dec low. 30th is showing up as a panic day on all indexes, so expect a strong move in direction of the 29th close. - The price might get the gap closed on the 29th (ideal pathway) and continue in a strong move down. Ideally its closes in direction down, it will be a good confirmation for the price going lower into the 1st low. - Ideal target is 3744-55SPX or Oct 13th gap close After the 1st low, it gets tricky. Its either makes a low on the 6th and up into the week of Dec 26th or, ideally a high and down into EOY. Jan seems to be the monthly low of this entire move down from the ATH, perfect 1 year celebration. Intraday low might not come till Mar or even May. Here is zoomed in chart link There is not much of a support below 3866 till 3744SPX, its the must hold Bear/Bull support for the next week. If looking for the extensions, I have resistance at - 4037 - 4045 - 4068-76 (main target) - 4118-20 (Maj resistance) Will be tweeting my other simple chart as can't attach it here. Im swing short and will use the next high to exit all the remaining protective longs I have. Have a great and profitable week everyone!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX 4H Analysis📈Trade Idea📉 🟡 #S&P500 Index 4H ✍️We can have two trading scenarios for this index. Considering that S&P is in the Equilibrium range, it can move as a continuation movement (CP) to the supply ranges in the chart (Premium), of course, with the condition of penetrating and closing a four-hour high candlestick (PDH-PWH). In this case, consider two scenarios for trading. In the first scenario, you can use the supply ranges specified in the chart to activate sell orders. The second scenario is for traders who are looking for a long stop in this index, they can use the block order limits specified in the chart. For trading in these areas, you can place your trade as a limit by observing the stop loss. 🟢Minor Order Block >🟢3640$ -3684$ 🟢Major Order Block >🟢3740$ -3780$ 🔴Minor Order block >🔴4080$ - 4120$ 🔴Major Order Block> 🔴4165$-41250$ 📊Poc (Point of Control) : 3960$ ⚠️ Margin 1% For each position. ⚠️Use Tight StopLoss. ✍️Desert Eagle 📊Analysis Method SMART Money Concept + ICT+ Volume Profile (DYOR) 📆11.27.2022 ⚠️This Analysis will be Updated⚠️ 💸Good Luck Traders.
SP:SPXLong
by Trader_Needs
S&P500 and VIX Cycles say rally more likely from now onOn this 1W time-frame we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) and the Volatility Index (VIX) since 1990. We've used the Sine Waves on an (approximately) VIX bottom-to-bottom basis in order to identify what the S&P500 normally does at this part of the Cycle. As you see from the current point and until VIX Cycle's next bottom (blue zone), the S&P500 in a total of three occasions, it has been on a Rally twice and the other time January 28 2022 - February 07 2005, it was on its way to the final drop of the Dotcom Bear Market, lasting 35 weeks and then a strong Rally followed. If the above is anything to follow then the S&P500 has more probabilities of rising consistently for the rest of this part of VIX's Cycle and if the case is like 2002, then drop for the next 35 weeks and the rally aggressively. Which scenario do you think is more likely? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
SPX gapped up in am and retested the trendline from the topSPX gaped up in am and retested the broken trendline from the top, a perfect long for those who traded my call from last night. I did warn that this can test 4007SPX, its getting close to it. Did few long trades in am, not touching this till tomorrow. FED should be a perfect catalysis for the top. If the price will hold 3946-49SPX tomorrow instead of making a new high and crap, then I would be looking for another extension to 4068 with holiday volume by the 28th high. From where I do expect a strong move down into Dec 1st low. Dec 1st low should produce a good long opportunity and ideally it will hit 3744-50SPX. Should see an easy 150 points into Dec 6th if not more. The setup is coming and its tomorrow. I will be on most of the day and will tweet my trades life.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
S&P500 Critical Support! Hard drop or test of Cycle Resistance?The S&P500 index (SPX) is currently testing and (so far) holding the 4H MA50 (green trend-line), which is not just the Support on the short-term but has been within 2022 the pivotal line that started all selling sequences to a new market Low. As you see on this 4H time-frame chart, since the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle, every time the counter trend rallies made a top on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line and the 4H MA50 broke afterwards (and closed the day below it), the index never made a Higher High and instead started the bearish legs to a new Lower Low. It can be argued that the rally since the October 13 Low never hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the top and where the price got rejected on August 17. The 1D RSI, compared to the previous tops, shows that there should be some fuel left on this rally but the most accurate and confirmed Sell Signal on tops has been when the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross. That would target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (grey trend-line) in extension. On the long-term, as long as we are below the January 04 Lower Highs, we are still in Bear Cycle territory. Ideally we would like to see a break above the 4175 Resistance (1), which would be also above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), in order to call for an official start to the new Bull Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
6
ES chart, nothing changed from last nightI wont be surprised to see 3900 test and then one more up from the bull flag. If 3900 holds we should see 4100+ move on the last leg up. The amount of puts is insane, unless I/we dont know something, its a retail/perma-bears trying to short every top and you know what happens to those puts when P/C ratio is so up. I also start to see some really out of the money SPY put prints, like down to 300-335, which I havent seen last 2 weeks Today is a turning day as well as tomorrow and the day after, so a lot of choppiness is expected and trading levels will be rewarded imo There could be a start of the real move down only after 22-23rd going into EOM where Nov 30th is a panic cycle day. I will be looking to buy next low and currently short ES from 3960.50 with a 9 points stop. Will exit half at 10+ points gain and will move the rest at BE
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
11
S&P500 Close to the most critical test of the Bear Market.The S&P500 index (SPX) broke last week above the August 16 Lower Highs trend-line, following the impressive drop on October's CPI and has almost fulfilled our +5.18% bullish projection of 4040: The price is now approaching the all important 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which rejected the price and form the last top on the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line on August 16. A break above it would be the first since April 21 and undoubtedly, the first sign towards a long-term bullish break-out into a recovery from this Bear Market. Technically the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line is a little higher than the 1D MA200, exactly where the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) is, so we can set a tolerance level there. A break above it, we'll take as a bullish break-out buy and target 4328 (Resistance 2). If the index is yet again rejected within this 1D MA200 - 1W MA50 Resistance Zone, then it remains (until further notice) within the Bear Cycle but the downtrend would be confirmed by a break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which will initially target the 3643 Support (1). Note that the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) has been technically the best place to buy these Bear Market rallies on their latest stages. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
1
Reposting my weekend update for those who didnt see itMy weekend update was banned as noted other place, Im re-posting now: I have cycles top on Tuesday and choppy period into 22nd low The way I see here is that the price is about to finish the wave 2 and 3rd wave will bring the price down into third week of Dec. Dont see and Santa Rally this year, it should be a Santa Crappy. Nov month should be lowest monthly close when Dec will be higher and Jan 2023 will be another lower monthly close. Intra day low might not come till Apr or even May. I have volatility rising from tomorrow all the way into EOM . I do expect a good down move tomorrow, which will be bought. Main support now is at 3910-15SPX and smaller degree support at 3950-58SPX Resistance and target on the upside are on the chart with notes. Maj resistance on closing daily level is at 4010.50 SPX and weekly at 4116-18. Ideal target for the high this month is 4118SPX level, might very well top in mid 4000 The way the price is going is not bullish but a bear rally, those can extend and be super fast (we got second part already) Main support is at 3750-55SPX now, below it top is in. My game plan for tomorrow is buy low 39 handle for a move up into Tuesday high. I have exited my MES short from Friday close at Sunday open and flipped to long from 83.50 and 84.50. Already took profits at 91.50 and 93.50 zone. Im long some MNQ and my main position is swing short MNQ. I will trim most of my long on Tuesday high.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
S&P500 Time to reveal the real trend.The S&P500 index has been trading within a short-term Channel Down pattern since the October 27 Low on the 4H time-frame. We presented this formation on our last week analysis: The price rebounded at the bottom of the Channel Down and reached its top to form a Lower High. This happens to be also on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High. Since September 12 though, the RSI on the 1D time-frame has been trading on Higher Highs, i.e. showcasing a Bullish Divergence. On top of that, this is the first time since June, that the price didn't drop lower after an oversold 4H RSI but instead rose without any pull-back. Those factors add weight on the bullish case. A candle close above the August 16 trend-line, immediately targets 3925 and then 4040 in extension. The medium-term targets are Resistance 1 (4175) and Resistance 2 (4328). Failure to break the August Resistance though, maintains the Channel Down pattern, targeting first the 3643 Support (1) as a Lower Low. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
9
SPX long termHe is a bit cleared out chart for my long term view on the SPX. I think (as was saying all year long), that we will revisit 2020 lows and ideally make a higher low at 2855SPX or if super weak low 2400 (less odds at this point) by Mar/Apr 2023. If there is a H&S playing out and we will know soon enough, then the price should get down to 3k zone My ideal target for this year low is at 3212SPX with min 3389SPX (which I think will be sliced/wont hold long if tested) Maj support going into Nov 10-11th low is at 3610 to 3656 SPX, where 3610SPX is the maj support. Below 3610SPX the price will test min 3543-56SPX is not all the way to re-test Oct 13th lows. If in fact that happens, then the move down to 3389 and ideally 3212SPX will be very fast and will bottom on Nov 21-22nd. Ideally we test 3389SPX level on Nov 21-22nd, rally up back to 3545-55SPX and ideally back to 3610-55SPX by EOM and make a final low in Dec either at 3212 or that mid 3k zone. I do think 3k will be a very solid support and will hold this year. This year is a pure bear market and so many still expecting a Santa Rally, I think we get Santa Crappy instead. So after a good size rally (13-18%) from Dec lows to mid Jan high Early next year it will be a perfect scenario where the price dives down to 2855 and low 24 handle to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs. Then I think the price will start to move up with the money flow from the European countries and other countries to a safe heaven - the US stock market. DOW will benefit the most imo, so I expect DOW to outperform, SPX to follow. That high might be a double top sometime in 2026 and then another move down to 1550SPX zone by 2030-32 So if played right and give enough time to your trade, a lot of money can be made playing long term/swing this pathway Have a good night, tomorrow will be interesting, expect a lot of volatility to hit the market going all the way till Christmas time
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
S&P500 4H RSI oversold but means nothing unless this breaksThe S&P500 (SPX) is having a strong pull-back on the short-term following Powell's remarks during the Press Conference on the Fed's future policy in the aftermath of the +0.75% Rate Hike. The RSI on the 4H time-frame dropped below the 30.000 oversold barrier intraday but that alone has proven to mean nothing in terms of buying power. As you see, every time the RSI turned oversold since June, the price dropped lower eventually. The only signal that has been causing a confirmed rise is a break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has caused price rises ranging from +2.26% to +5.18%. Right now the price is even below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which is making things worse and as a Channel Down is forming, we may see a slight bounce and then Lower Low as per this data sample since June. If a 4H MA50 breaks happens now, a minimum of +2.26% rise would hit 3925 while a maximum of +5.18% would hit 4040. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 The inflation crisis is just a minor cyclical event!This is a complete roadmap of the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M time-frame, where we have taxonomized its historical trend on Super Cycles and Minor Cycles. As you see, since the Great Depression, we can categorize a whole era (approximately 42 years) as a Super Cycle. Super Cycles tend to end with a massive Recession/ Bear Market. Within the Super Cycle, we've fitted three Minor ones. The first two Minor Cycle within the Super one have ended with a minor corrections (relative to the long-term of course). Based on S&P500's current Super Cycle projection, it appears what we are only heading towards the end of the 1st Minor Cycle of the Super Cycle that started a few years after the 2008 Housing Crisis. As a result the current correction in 2022 due to the very high inflation, is simply viewed as another minor cyclical event at the start of a Super Cycle that is projected to end with a Recession around 2048! For illustration purposes and to help make a better comparison, I have plotted the first two Super Cycles (blue and green trend-lines) on the current one. We can see how thee current one has diverged a bit more than the others, probably thanks to the massive QE since the Housing Crisis. Also notice that since January 1943, the 1M MA300 (red trend-line) has been the ultimate Support and a rebound level on both Super Cycle corrections/ Recessions. This chart simply shows that long-term investors have nothing to be afraid of with this inflation crisis and soon incredible buy opportunities will emerge. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
6