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SPX is in decision modeIm always honest with my homework, I dont like to have several counts to be always right. At this point Im seeing both scenarios: 1 - We break the orange trendline and we are off the races to 3900-4000 (not preferred) 2 - We break 3500 or Oct 2nd low, we see 3380-3410 at min! I'm in lower lows camp, as you know. But the window for the strong move down to start is just almost out, has to start tomorrow! - The bull flag noted on the chart cant be unnoticeable! If it breaks, that's it for lower levels until Midterms! - On the bear side, we have perfect H&S as well as the price being so weak and bounces being so muted, its ready for the crash to start, it just needs a little help to push the markets off the cliff! Will we have that catalysis? I bet yes, the question is when! Will repeat again, November is a panic month. Can be an avalanche of events! War, elections, bonds going off the roof, all the economic issues around the globe. My conclusion here is this: - Im net short, I will flip if we get above that trendline shown on the chart and enter on re test. I dont want to do it as it will cost me in stop losses - Im not adding to short till we break 3500 or Oct 2nd lows! - If we break, we will see 3380-3410 and then should have a good bounce to 3500, then it will be another perfect show for a move down to at least 3200-10! Have a good night everyone! P.S. Please press that rocket button below, push this chart up for others to see. Also feel free to share my charts with anyone, lets get 1k followers, means my work is important for others to see.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX broke down, nothing changed since amHi everyone, I slept in today and did few things around house, needed some time off the screen. Yesterday wasnt a good day for me, I had some losses with stops, its not an easy market to trade, too wide stops get triggered as well. Im doing swing trades now only till the first extreme hits. So far its short the rip game and Im looking for the first test of 3650SPX Targets to hit are on the chart - 3640 - 3580 - and then new lows! Im still expecting down move to new lows, crash scenario is off the table. At least that is not what Im warred about. BUT I still expect 3212 within a month time frame and ideally 28 handle (super ideal is 24 handle:) Shoot me questions, Im on my computer now! Will post other charts next. VIX to hit $60+ imo and that could be my 28 or 24 handle
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
S&P500 Bullish Divergence on RSI targets 4000 short-termThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern through this Bear Cycle of 2022. Since August 31, despite having the candle action on Lower Lows, the RSI on the 4H time-frame has been on Higher Lows, i.e. flashing a Bullish Divergence. The only other time that this took place within this Bear Cycle was early on from January 21 to February 24. As you see on this chart, during that early 2022 sequence, when the RSI broke above its Lower Highs, the price also broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and targeted the top of the Bearish Megaphone within the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.618 Fib is currently just over the 4000 level. Also note that yesterday the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) crossed below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) forming a Bearish Cross. The last time we had that formation was on February 24, exactly on the (short-term) bottom at that time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7
SPX 2 pathways, all the same resultMorning everyone, I sleep in today and missed am short, sold my puts from yesterday at 3620ES zone though, re entering those now again. The price hit my 3720-30 (as per my yesterday's update) zone in am, was an amazing short and I missed it! I see 2 possible pathways: - first is the price is working on the right shoulder and will push much lower next week. My ideal pathway - second is the touch of the upper channel of the trend channel ABC black line. If second, we should touch 3600 and hold, then push for the final move to hit 3815-20SPX Its Friday, do not over trade, let the trade come to you and then press! Im swing short into EOM!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
31
SPX is at Very Very Very Dangerous zone!Hi everyone, Im on vacation from Sunday to next Sunday, but I will be trading and will be still posting updates. I dont want to call for a crash here, chances for it are super slim. Any trade must be protected with a stop and only you as a trader can make the decisions on what to do with the information you're getting. Must do is your own homework! Again do not mortgage your house and go all in as this can be a very well one big bear trap! Im looking for that final move to be over by end of Oct or early Nov regardless. (updated about this last week Thursday or so) My target zone is 34 handle by the time window outlined above with ideal target being 32 handle. Below it, the markets are in real troubles! Can it be a crash, I don't know, I'm too far out to predict such things. Here is my quick but important update: - I wont rule out another low on Monday am and in fact I will be shorting on Sunday if we get a bounce. - That low can be lower 52 week low or just 3610SPX test Levels of importance - 3640.50 (again) - 3610, below this level comes - 3550-40 - 3511 - 3480-85 all SPX Resistance is at 3735-45; 3775-85 Here is my 1h chart On this chart I have outlined support levels, when/if broken you know whats coming next! IF we get a strong rally into Wed, I will not be holding longs at all, line none! I will only do options (puts) on what Im ready to loose. So here is a clue to how low this can fall in a very short time: - check the fibs from the low of 2009 to the high this Jan, check where is 78.6% retracement is
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
32
S&P500 CPI higher than expected. Can it repeat this bullpattern?The U.S. CPI came in higher than expected at 8.2% against a 8.1% forecast but lower than the previous month (8.3%). It remains to be seen how the market will react to that. Technically though, the bearish leg of S&P500 (SPX) since the August 16 Lower High within this 2022 Bearish Megaphone, is close to completing the exact same pattern of the previous two bearish legs, after which both rebounded aggressively above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to form a Lower High within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has been on a similar structure as well. The 0.618 - 0.786 zone is within 4007 - 4145 and the 1D MA200 at 4145 (and falling). Do you think the S&P500 will ignore the higher than expected CPI and repeat the pattern by completing it on a rebound? P.S. For better comparison purposes I've plotted all fractals on top of one another (blue, orange and grey lines). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
6
SPX last night email update chartMorning everyone, Im sharing my last night work with you here. This was sent out to those who are on my email list. It was a long update, I will copy paste only important stuff here: I think we get Jun low to Aug high type of move but much faster. Looking at the zoomed in chart (4h white background chart) - You can see that I expect to have a deep pullback into Fri (ideal target is 3680-70SPX), another move up from there either to 3875SPX to finish up the whole move up of this 4th wave. - Or we get Jun to Aug (but faster) move off the lows and get a move from upcoming Fri low back to 3785, down to 3645 and final strong move up to 4040-4100SPX. This pathway will make the next high not mid month but closer to the EOM (making higher monthly close) After mid or end of the month high expect the final move down early Nov to finish up the whole move down of A wave from Jan high and mark the low for the year. Targets to hit: - If the price makes 4040-4100SPX , then the first target will be back to just a bit under 3600SPX - Ideal target zone is 3475 and 3389-95SPX - 3212SPX is the extended target Trading plan for the rest of the week. - Looking to start taking off my swing short at 3715-20SPX level and will start layering with longs there 25% - Exit full short position at 3670-80SPX level and get 50% more longs to make it 75% long position - In case we hit (less odds) 3640SPX I will be 125% long, otherwise I will add on a move above 3755-3760 test and hold. On the simple daily SPX chart 110MA is below 50MA can be the main target to hit next, need to close above the mid Bollinger, which I think will happen on the move up after Fri low. I really think the price should close the last gap from 3678SPX before the move up resumes. I want to see a price gap down below 3750 from the open to have my plan playing out. 3640SPX is a very important number to hold on any closing level! Numbers of importance for tomorrow: Resistance: - 3876SPX (closing above should see 3960SPX next) Support: - 3749-50SPX, closing below should see below 3700 next - 3715-20SPX - 3670-80SPX - 3640-45SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
48
S&P500 Broke above the 4H MA50. 3900 next?The S&P500 (SPX) index broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which as we mentioned on our previous analysis, it was the bullish break-out signal. In fact the current post is an update to the post Rate Hike analysis made on September 22: The pattern remains the same and so does the current price action that appears to be replicating the late August - early September leg. As you see, when SPX broke above the 4H MA50, it was on the same MACD pattern as today and the subsequent rally hit not only the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but extended as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous High. If completed, the 0.618 would fall exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High. You can approach this in segments. First target the 4H MA200 or the 0.5 Fib and if you want to assume some more risk, pursue eventually the 0.618 Fib. This pattern may be invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA50, in which case we will be looking for the 1W MA200 as our target again (red trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
6
SPX must take 3675 for higher levels to be seenI really want to see 3675SPX tested and then a move above it after a retracement. The down trend channel is important here, so all eyes on 3675SPX! Im out from my Fri longs at 3645, will re-enter Also closed my SPY 346 calls at BE, very happy with not loosing there:) Please note, all the purple lines are the unfilled gaps! P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
11
S&P500 Is this the last Support standing??------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The S&P500 index (SPX) has been pulling back again considerably since the mid-August High, which still was a Lower High within the current Bear Phase. A very consistent pattern that throughout this prolonged, multi-year Bull Cycle has offered the best buy entries possible, can be seen on the 3W time-frame. The signal is given by the 3W RSI which as you see defines almost all of the Bull Cycle since the bottom of the Housing Crisis in 2009. The pattern is a Lower Lows trend-line that started on the August 2011 Low and every time the index hit that Support, it rebounded aggressively into a new Bull Phase, thus providing the most optimal buy entry. The trend-line was almost hit on the May 31 candle, which was the first time the index hit the MA50 (blue trend-line) since May 2020 and the post COVID-crash recovery. Breaking marginally below the MA50 and then rebounding has been the norm throughout this pattern. During the COVID crash, the RSI Lower Lows trend-line was hit on its exact level, however SPX briefly breached even below the MA100 (green trend-line) amidst this never-seen-before market panic. Can this mean that the RSI has its last Lower Lows touch in store for us with a Low closer to the MA100 again? It is possible, but what we should keep from this pattern is that if the post 2009 Bull Cycle era remains valid, then the next RSI Lower Lows trend-line touch will be as close to a perfect buy entry as it can get. And if broken, we could assume that "the last Support standing" of the Bull Cycle has finally fallen. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
6
S&P500 How to trade it following the 0.75% Rate HikeThe S&P500 index (SPX) dipped aggressively following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, which was a natural reaction to the third straight 0.75% rate hike. The first one was made on Jun 15 2022 (rate gone from 1.00% up to 1.75%) and the second on July 27 2022 (rate gone from 1.75% to 2.50%). In both cases the market reacted positively by the following day, despite rate hikes fundamentally being negative for stocks. Especially in the case of June 15, the market was surprised as it got an even higher than expected hike (the forecast was 0.50% instead of the actual 0.75%) but still digested the news in such a way that it made a bottom on June 16 and started a rally that rose by +19%. That is the fundamental outlook for the moment. As far as the technical aspect is concerned, the index is below both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since September 13. The trend is bearish since the August 16 Top. Early in today's E.U. opening, the price is rebounding as it hit the top of the 3750 - 3720 Support Zone (1). As long as it holds, it can technically target the 4H MA50. Only a candle close above it can extend buying targeting the 4H MA200. Notice the similarities with the August 29 - September 07 Channel Down that eventually broke upwards and reached as high as the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Zone. That can make a perfect match with the 4H MA200. Note the similar patterns on the MACD as well. A closing below Support Zone (1) however can deliver an rapid fall to Support Zone (2) 3660 - 3640 and eventually the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
SPX one more big bear channel visualizationA slightly lower into my 3802-17 level will be a perfect hit of the lower trend channel. NQ already broke its on to the downside! Important to note A right shoulder fake rally will be perfect before it really drops into Oct/Nov lows Also dont be surprised if it breaks, then look for the retest of the broken trend channel from below P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
14
SPX to hit 3802-17I missed am short, now waiting for 3802-17 to go long. Wont rule out a move down to 3750 tomorrow before FOMC The way I see it is that we will bottom today tomorrow and rally back to 3880+ after the FOMC decision, then completely erase the move by Fri. Should bottom on the 17th and rally up into EOM early Oct, then continue lower Dont try to trade this, very choppy designed to take both sides. I got chopped with stops here, now entered with short and exit at my 3802-17SPX level P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX Weekend quick updateI was busy all weekend, this update will be quick. Still seeing this as a bear market, well it is for the past 9 months wasnt it. The main trend is still down! Please note those purple lines are the unfilled gaps, will be gone each time the price will fill those, otherwise act as magnet to fill, depends on the trend Looking at the price action, I can see 1-2, 1-2 development (Im not an EWT pro or do I want to be at this point) to the downside and much lower levels into Oct/Nov low. Also think, that this bear market will merge into Q1 2023 and should bottom sometime in Apr/early May As for this upcoming week of Sep 19th: - Im looking for a day or 2 muted bounce and continue lower after the FOMC decision. - If we see the opposite, a drift lower into the FOMC decision, then I would be looking for a long right before the announcement. I think we will bottom this week on the 21st-22nd, or make a intraday low next week 27-29th. Friday price action wasnt what I expected and limited to the downside by holding 3850 level. I dont find that level important to hold and think its a low level of support at this point. The most important thing on Friday was this - the price gaped down below my 3880-86 support level, which was much stronger then 3850 level. So I think this can still get to 3802-17SPX early next week, ideally on Monday and then move up into a muted action to 3950-60SPX level and reverse lower from there. Main weekly resistance is 4155-60 with 4015-25 in the middle. Support levels: - 3802-17 - 3750-55 - 3735-40 - 3720 - below last number nothing but air till 3636 and my ideal target of 3580, 3550-55 and 3500 even. My main target for this move is at 3200-10SPX! And I think we will see lower into 2020 higher lows in 2023 Im looking to buy longs tomorrow in 3802-17 zone or just short 3950 zone. No need in over trading this but the levels of importance! Have a great weekend, do not over trade, this bear market will get both sides, wait for a good setup to take with higher R/R odds P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
17
S&P500 New sell-off based on the May fractal. Can it be avoided?The S&P500 index (SPX) got sold off aggressively on Monday after a worse than expected CPI report. The price action since the August 16 High appears to be repeating the trading sequence of last May. As you see it seems to be a W structure that pivots off Symmetrical Support and Resistance levels, at least so far. If completed that means that the price should rebound on the lower Symmetrical Support Zone and hit the blue pivot before getting aggressively rejected to a new Low. Can this new projected sell-off into October be avoided? Yes but if and only if the following set of parameters is met: * Firstly the 1D RSI rebounds on its Higher Lows trend-line and NOT its 8-month Support Zone and * Secondly if the US10Y, which on this chart is represented by its inverted shape of the 1-US10Y symbol (black trend-line) for better comparison purposes, pivots off its June 14 Low. As you see that rebound was what started the June 17 - August 16 two-month rally on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2