SPXU
Spy- IntradayI thought price would at least get to 258.3, but it appears to be running out of steam on this drive. We will see if it pushes up hard or falls below its agressive trendline supporting the price action from the last 2 trading days. We have a pretty clear channel at this point in purple. I would prefer that price surge higher now and exhaust itself maybe gettting to the top of the purple resistance ~261. If it were to do that soon, then I would expect a more aggressive selloff afterward. If it were to continue to create a stronger foundation with small pull backs and coninued buying then I would assume we stay in those 260 areas a little longer and consolidate there.
If we break down from here, taking out the white trendline from the last 2 days, then we will expect price to possibly hit the bottom support of the purple range and horizontal support at 251.3. What it does from there will be very interesting. We could break, dead cat bounce, or continue the rally.
SPY- Daily Dose of DestructionDaily Chart
1. Stochastics are in the same area and crossing as they had in SPY's previous drops. Both at the 280 Price level and the second drop started the big sell-off.
2. 21 Daily EMA (in Yellow) has been tested and possibly rejected (we must wait and see)
3. The light blue line is a very historic trendline gathered from connecting the hights in 2008 to the consolidation/correction of 2015 and it comes in right where price is currently.
4. The RSI is now getting to the area where it will be testing its (resistance) at the bottom of the blue line. RSI is momentum and the fact that we have gotten all the way up here which if there were no divergence between RSI and price then price should be at the 268 level currently. (going strictly off of the RSI and where the price was last time at these RSI levels) BUT, we are not we are way below that at 252, to me, this is a less concrete form of divergence.
We are still in a Bear Market (unless we get and hold above 263 on a monthly TF). Being in a bear market means there will be many Failed breakouts to the upside, getting through resistance and then failing (bull trapping many) I would like to draw our attention to volume and the red line I have pinned. Volume has steadily been decreasing as the price is rising (indecision) and it also means that people are getting less and less willing to aggressively buy this market as prices rise (exhaustion).
Wyckoff (I do not know Wyckoff) I have not studied it extensively. But, on a smaller scale and in the manner price looks to me in this 245-252 range really reminds me of a Wyckoff distribution example. The scale is off and really it applies to a much larger timeframe than the 15 minutes, but to me, it looks like Distribution and indecision with unnatural pumps.
Unnatural pumps to me are institutions trying to prop the price up, prop the markets up longer (as long as they can) so that they can continue getting out of longs and transition to short. They have to move SO much money that this is a long, slow and difficult process. They will do what they can to support price, in order to get retailers and other investors in there to buy their positions up so they can be delta negative.
* Yes Price certainly can go higher to where I have the blue and red Boxes outlined in the chart. they are areas where many people will be looking to establish new shorts (traders), for some, maybe few, get out of 401ks that got decimated (retailers), and very obvious place for institutions to get the last of their leveling shorts in and cleanly get back to delta negative. I am not saying, that we cannot go up from here to the 255-263 (highly anticipated range) It surely can and normally would be expected. In fact, the reason why it's so expected by many and many plans to short at those levels BECAUSE it is SO clearly defined, makes me hesitant to believe the market will be that gracious and give the whole world a great clear shorting opportunity.
I think that price either goes down from this level or does get that last exhaustive push up into the box territory. Technically we have broken smaller time frame resistances and are sitting right on top of them. I am going to be very interested to see what price does in this last hour. market makers need to manage their risk within standard deviations. Price has been able to move in increments of 1.5% in this bounce. Today we gapped up very aggressively putting almost 4% on the chart. Makers should be hedging down about 1.5% in on the small timeframes to stay within their risk tolerances, of standard deviations of average true ranges.
SPY- Topped or Topping?Bearish Divergence on the 15 min chart. In a bull market, this is nothing. In a bear market, this is everything. Living below the 21 monthly MA means we are in a Bear Market (the 21 MA is at 263)
If the market surges for a higher high this divergence will be continued for a more clear short opportunity and more extreme divergence.
In my opinion, Price is completely topped at 263 SPY. That was major support and hence it has become major resistance.
This bounce move could be over or it could only be 50% over. What really matters in what direction will price go after the bounce.. IMO .. DOWN DOWN DOWN.
Any shorts in this area above the 200 MA is gravy & will be profitable trades.
Yes, the perfect short should be up in the 260 areas, but there is NO guarantee that price will get to obvious resistance.
The short-term managed risk trades: I will be de-risking in the 244 area. closing more shorts and waiting to see if we break our uptrend support line. If we get below the 244 zones I will be putting on more shorts. The final Trade will be a break of the 234 support, once that is broken it will be a very violent drop. IF this support breaks then Please Please Please, do not be in the market looking for upside movement. It will be the last point for you to get out and secure your 401ks etc...
SPY- Futures have broken structure.Since the Futures have already broken structure we can assume that we will get that start of some downside movement. Whether we already topped or if we are simply pulling back is a big mystery in my opinion. In fact, trading bounces, are very difficult as there is an inherent lack of information as the movements are so volatile, not leaving as much room for analysis. I will be watching the horizontal supports closely to see if they are holding price or if we break down from them. If we do break down from both of these horizontals we will be looking at our SPY 233 lows. If that cannot hold then we will impulse down toward 212. The horizntal supports provide oppotunities to exit some shorts and de-risk and wait to see if they hold.
SPY- Top Found? Bearish Divergence on the 15 min chart. In a bull market, this is nothing. In a bear market, this is everything. Living below the 21 monthly MA means we are in a Bear Market (the 21 MA is at 263)
If the market surges for a higher high this divergence will be continued for a more clear short opportunity and more extreme divergence.
In my opinion, Price is completely topped at 263 SPY. That was major support and hence it has become major resistance.
This bounce move could be over or it could only be 50% over. What really matters in what direction will price go after the bounce.. IMO .. DOWN DOWN DOWN.
Any shorts in this area above the 200 MA is gravy & will be profitable trades.
Yes, the perfect short should be up in the 260 areas, but there is NO guarantee that price will get to obvious resistance.
The short-term managed risk trades: I will be de-risking in the 244 area. closing more shorts and waiting to see if we break our uptrend support line. If we get below the 244 zone I will be putting on more shorts. The final Trade will be a break of the 234 support, once that is broken it will be a very violent drop. IF this support breaks then Please Please Please, do not be in the market looking for upside movement. It will be the last point for you to get out and secure your 401ks etc...
I hate Elliot waves.. But in this case.. Elliot Waves sure makes a case and we could be at the end of the correction already.
Summary: all down from here. Or, one more impulse up followed by much more long-term downside. GL traders, friends, family....
SPY- RSI Fun Just a fun little exercise.
If this RSI were the Price, and we retraced all the way back up to the old breakdown support, wouldn't this be the place to short and look for the market to fall?
* not saying this is the top of the bounce, but certainly, something to consider.
* BTW we do have bearish divergence on the 15 min, in a bear market that is significant.
SPY-Small TFQuick update-
We were looking for a bounce. We got it. I was leaning toward the massive confluence at the 251-252 area. It looks like the price may have run out of steam before it could make it there.
1. Massive Volume on yesterdays close brands that candle as a top, It could be broken but would need lot of market participation to do so.
2. We are creating a bear flag pattern and once it breaks to the downside I have a measured move for the impulse which would kick start the selling waterfalls again.
The second time we test the 200 Moving average and Exp moving average I will be greatly antipating that they do not hold this time and upon breaking down below the 233 area we will see a huge flood of selling once again all the way down to our next targets at 212.
Could we see price get above this bear flag and continue higher, sure anything is possible. But as the chart gives us more information with every minute that passses. In fact, it looks like its breaking down right now from our bear flag.
SPY- Bounce, Found. Top, Searching.So we got the bounce we were looking for, right in the 230 area that I had been talking about. So far so good. Let's see if we can get an idea as to where this market will top out for its final exhaustive push-up. Where would be an area where many people who got caught would love to take the loss for the peace of mind of not being in this market? Where will the bots be programmed to scale in the shorts? What areas have recently been important catalyst levels?
I will throw out my target area even though there is no way to know exactly where price will reverse. I'm going with 251-252.
I will be watching our horizontal support closely at 249 to see if we have the steam to break through. If we manage to make it above that level then my target will be the next stop.
I like the confluence that it has:
1. Horizontal at the lows of the one year consolidation period.
2. Fibonacci .382 retracement level
3. 21 Exp Moving Average (which is projected with my orange dotted line)
4. Fed news breakdown area *When rates hiked, we broke this support that day)
We obviously could top out at any given point from where we are right now or all the way up to 263 but the area I will be watching most closely is the 251-252 confluence. We will see if we make it there. These sorts of things are extremely hard to predict, so I like to put weight on price action and volume as we approach critical areas. Looking for a spike in green volume as the price is going up sharply to put in a top. I will also be watching for smaller timeframe bearish divergence as we progress upward.
SPY- It's Closing Time (small TF)For Educational Purposes only:
I have closed some shorts at today's lows, and will be looking to close more from whatever fade we get from here. Our Stochastics are overbought on the smaller time frames (5-45 minute Tf's) This hints to me that there will another down move before price stabilizes, and attempts its bounce. I will be waiting for them to reach the oversold areas of the indicator, or looking for a large volume bottoming candle on the 5 minute chart. The Red area is the 200 EMA and the Orage area is the 200 MA. Like I mentioned in my last two posts I am looking for a bounce in this area around these Moving Averages. I do not plan to go long, I am just looking to take profits, as many other shorters will naturally be looking at these areas to do the same.
We are currently making our way higher on this small timeframe chart, I will be looking for a large volume candle signifying a local top. If we get consistent green volume without a larger volume spike that could signify that we do not retrace to my other green circle areas and closing out sooner could be warranted.
SPY- Finding a Bounce?We are taking a minute to ONLY look at the RSI
HM, a picture is worth a thousand words.
We see that the RSI has had a very prominent horizontal area that has been supported for a long time. We have clearly broken that on the RSI support. Any other time in history that these supports were broken they were an early indication of a bear market crash to follow. But we already know that. I want to draw your attention to the green circles on the RSI. There is another slight support in the RSI in the 40 area as the last two crashes initially found support in this same area which produced some sort of bounce and subsequent rollover and deep dive to really crash the markets. This would allow the media to blast more headlines like, "the market is recovering" Or "Biggest gains in one day since 1900" or similar cockamamy bull*** ..which drive fear of missing out emotions in non-technically adept investors/401k holders. As usual, the little guy will make the intitutions richer as they and thier bots heavily short some sort of fib retracement/Moving average resistance lines as price floats up on small volume.
Graph- is In LOG scale.
White lines from the LOG Scaled Chart
Yellow dotted from the LINEAR Scaled Chart.
SPY- Be a Wolf, not a Sheep. We are aggressively approaching our 200 week moving averages. Throughout this bear market / crash I will be watching very closely certain key levels to close trades out and to allow the price to firm up and then re-enter shorts after whatever bounce has occurred. There is no way to know for sure that a bounce will happen at any given level but whenever you have good confluences coming together a disciplined trader will have a plan to exit at those levels given that the volume characteristics at that point in time confirm your hypothesis. Using volume is a little tricky sometimes. But I boil it down to looking for Large spikes in volume (that were not news driven or during the market closing or opening.) A larger than normal volume, while the price is going down, would signal that the price is trying to put in a local bottom if the price is moving up and produces a large volume bar then a local top.
I have my confluence of supports coming in at 233.25 it could overshoot that slightly, especially with the very heavy sell pressure and then get supported up for a bounce. Our moving averages could get pierced slightly and then price still move up. The point is that sometimes there are specific levels that you want to have razor accuracy and execute orders on a breakout as we did at 262.5 for our "Big Short" Clear level, low risk trade with easily manageable risk. The reason we could buy that one off of the 3-minute chart as it was breaking down was that we had a very clear structure that had been tested 5 times already and we were waiting for that final breakthrough (as the more a trendline is tested the weaker it becomes).
How will I know that we are not going to bounce or even slow down at this confluence... If we never get a substantial volume that shows there are buyers trying to enter in with force.
I am hoping for a bounce for everyone's sake that could not have gotten out of the market earlier, but now feel that price has gone down too far that they will be throwing away all of 2 years gains. I hope they realize that they could very quickly throw away 10 years worth of gains if they cannot get over losing some on their account. Managing your portfolios correctly right now and for this next year will be 1000X more important than choosing which mutual funds or ETFs to hold in a bull cycle. You must be nimble and you must be willing to pull the trigger and take a loss. You might even want to recapture the losses you've incurred by shorting the market. I have not been interested in stocks until I saw the potential crash coming back in August, with the very enticing monthly bearish divergences. Before that, I learned a very hard but clear lesson about market cycles while trading BTC this last year. Do not trade against the trend/market cycle. Become one with the institutions. If the sheeple people are all thinking one thing do the opposite. If the news is telling you something, then your being manipulated to react.
In this chart we can see that we had measured moves (Yellow Dotted Line) from the top of the peak down to the bootom of the bear flag. We copied that same line down to get a target price from that structre in the 230's. We have a little bit of supportive price action on the left side of the chart and I have drawn in a support line at 240 and 230. The 200 EMA and MA weeklys are coming in at around those same areas respectivly. No bounce is guarenteed but the indgredents are here for it to happen if buyers decide to make it happen. A bounce could trick some people and I am sure the news will tout that we are recovering the worst is behind us. Please, think twice before beliving that one when you hear it. IMO, It will simply be the last place to get out at a decent place or get accounts set up and ready for shorting at those tops from any bounce. We will be looking of the bounce to test some Moving averages and key resistance levels for establish that short (or for some exit to cash.) Ill be posting every step of the way on this glorious journey to the depths of opportunity.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advise this is intended for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk, I am not a financial advisor and am not registered with any agency and all assets have maximum loss potential.
SPY-Bottom of Correction? OR Top of a Cliff? I go over the moving averages this time; as well as, looking at some Historic Chart situations leading up to the crash of 2008. We touch some correlations of BTC and the stocks. Sneak Peak of my BTC long term chart.
Enjoy,
SPY - Red skies in the morning; sailors take warningPlease enjoy, a little thrown together but I wanted to get this out there.
SPY - Preparing for the best trade ROI in 10 yearsLooking good so far if you're shorting this beast.
We have a very clear cut bear flag consolidation that makes trading very easy. It hasn't broken yet but when it does " LOOK OUT BELOW " Its measured move takes us to 230 on the SPY. Although 240 will provide some bounce as it has nice support on the left side of the chart. If 263 breaks then that we should start to get our impulse down. If your long in this market then please just get out & let things pass. If you're short then congratulations because you might be on top of the best trade in 10 years in the legacy markets.
We could, of course, get another relief rally/dead cat up to 270 upon which will be the next shorting opportunity. Price at this point should be capped at the 275 area due to some death crosses happening in our MA's
Happy Trading
S&P Update
These markets were made to move! As discussed in my previous analysis from Septemeber we have massive bearish diveregence in the RSI on our legacy markets. Elections helped give us a reason for uncertainity but politics will not ever Trump the Charts. They will simply fulfill them. The chart is King and news and events will often confirm what the chart had first been telling you. What is the Chart telling us? Well it all started in around 2009. We had a recession instigated by the mortgage crisis. To get us out of this crisis our government had done many bad things that essentially "kicked the massive can down the road." Bailouts, excessive Fed printing, lowered interest rates for years, and many other things. We used electric shock resuscitation to keep our economy from collapsing into a depression. Well the electric bill from that crisis is just now showing up in our mail box. "But the economy has never been stronger" "What better time to pay your outstanding bills?"
Anyway, economic theory doesn't really matter because the markets are really all about the chart, perception and fear.
To sum up:
Purple is our consolidation range. Breaking up or down out of that will be the start of an impulsive move.
(Disclaimer: if you are only willing to invest Long/Bullish and you think that this is just a small correction and the wost has already come. Then, you must not buy into the market until we are comfortably living above the purple resistance on a weekly chart. This is very important only then will my analysis and hypothesiszed downward move be nullified) Even if somehow the market gets up to that purple line resistance it will be printing a third even stronger monthly bearish divergence and it would be a clear sell signal. If the markets make it up half way to that resistance and fall of it will be a head and shoulders reversal pattern. So not until competely clearing and holding above it would be "safe" to invest.
Green 55 Weekly is acting as short term resistance at around 272
Gold 21 Monthly is supporting our arses at 261.5
The black and bold lines you see run us back all the way a decade to our last recession. We have since stayed within these lines which have created a quite large Ascending Wedge pattern, which eventually break to the downside at some point.
Speculation: There have been very strong correlations between the crypto market and the SPY even though they are avery different parts of their repsective market cycles. The fact that BTC had made another impulse move down today could help the SPY break the purple consolidation support. Watch out for a Monday gap down where we test 260 support as well as the falling wedge support. The falling wedge support is difficult to get exact so I will be trading off of horizontal supports (like 260) and MA's.
This breakdown could start tomorrow or in 3 months. There is really no way to tell exactly. I would say there's pretty good evidence that it could happen soon, but we could also get supported and play around more in this purple flag consolidation and pull in more bulls before crashing. Like I mentioned above we could create a 3rd divergence by going all the way to the top purple resistance or part way up to create a head and shoulders patern, before coming down hard. Supports: 240, 213, and if we complete a full corrective bear market we could hit our highs from 2007 at 153.
SPY Small TimeframeI would be looking for an entry shorting to our support at the brown line/ testing lows from Oct 11 If we break our current purple bear flag. 1.7% profit potential. If we counter trendline break up for another retest of resistance then I will wait.
We have been hovering around our daily 200 MA which is coming in right where price is currently. So, if we break below this purple support then we will have 2x the resistance if the price tries to move back up.
This is a short-term analysis, but please check below where I have attached a much more thorough bigger timeframe chart for great shorting opportunities. Check it out!
SPX holding at supportSupport is holding in the monthly charts. If it breaks down to 2485 we go. Thinking of going long SPXU.
