SPXUSD
5050 - Objective achievedConsidering the projection outlined for the future SPX in a previous analysis, I realize that the target pointed out by SETUP on the long-term chart has been reached.
Therefore, I think we have nowhere else to go up without at least having a small correction towards the 4685 region if I only consider the graphical analysis. See the image below.
Despite "reaching" the target, SETUP still shows that the index has a small strength to surpass this mark and reach the 5058 region, which can be seen as a buying trap for the most unsuspecting trader.
Coming to the short-term chart, the SETUP used indicates that we are in an extremely overbought region, therefore, it shows that the index is losing strength and that it really needs to make a correction. See below.
Do your analysis and it's good business.
Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss!
See other graphical analyzes below.
#SPX SPX Jan 24th after the close updateSPX will be the first update from TheTradersRoom.
SPX has hit its desired target we have called yesterday - 4904.50-4909.50
So I call it a perfect hit. Today's reversal came on a heavy selling, also got a black reversal daily closing SPX candle, which if not broken 1c above should mark at least a temporary top.
If the price did find its top, then tomorrow's open should be a gap down below 4864 and my min target will be 4840-4835 SPX
We have a Panic cycle day on the 26th and Im looking for a first important low on Feb 1st
Happy to be back!
SPX, Bullish Megaphone pattern still not completed and in playHi guys, I want to share with you this bullish megaphone pattern. I had made several post on this pattern we still look to be following it. I am still bullish on the stock market in general even though things look bad right now. I have compared this on a monthly chart but the weekly looks very identical to the image I attached.
Please like if you find it useful.
Note: This is not a financial advice.
Will the S&P500 Index Touch a New All-Time High(ATH)❗️❓📈Because the S&P500 Index is near an All-Time High(ATH), I decided to analyze this index for you and answer the question of whether the S&P500 Index can create a new All-Time High(ATH) or not.
🏃♂️The S&P500 Index has already managed to break the 🔴 Resistance zone( $4,640-$4,540 ) 🔴 and is moving near the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 and Resistance lines .
🔔I expect two scenarios for the S&P500 Index:
The scenario of S&P500 Index falling to the broken 🔴 Resistance zone( $4,640-$4,540 ) 🔴 (as a pullback ) and rising again.
In the second scenario, the S&P500 Index falls to the 🔴 Resistance zone( $4,640-$4,540 ) 🔴 and continues falling to the Fibonacci levels that I marked for you in the chart. We saw a bull trap in this scenario.
🔔So, in general, I expect that the S&P500 Index will NOT be able to break 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡and will decrease by at least ➖3% in the coming weeks.
S&P500 Index (SPXUSD),4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
SPX500Pair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Exp FIAT as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from the Lower Trend Line after it has Completed " abcde " Corrective Waves. Impulsive Wave " 1234 " Completed at Fibonacci Level - 50.00%
Entry Precaution :
Wait until it Breaks or Rejects UTL
S&P500 Total Return Index: Reading Market Between the LinesThe 1st half-year of 2023 is near the end, so the June Triple Witch quarterly expiration on the financial markets just took place the business day before.
The S&P500 index ( SP:SPX ) has added 14.44% in net prices since the beginning of 2023 and 15.36% in its total returns ( SP:SPXTR ), back to levels above 4,400 that were not seen in the past 12 months since the second quarter of 2022.
Historical backtest analysis indicates that the result achieved by SP:SPX Index year-to-date is the second largest in the last 25 years, second only to the pre-Covid 2019, where the return of the S&P500 index was 19.12% by mid-June (net prices) and 20.30% (total return).
This publication proposes to dwell in more detail on the definition and formula for calculating so-called market "Total Return", when measuring the performance of financial markets.
As no single idea has been published for the S&P 500 Total Return Index ( SP:SPXTR ) neither on any local version, nor on the International version of the TradingView , to the author's surprise..
So.. Let's be the first 😀
What is Total Return, or "Total Return"?
In general, the Total Return is the actual value (or rate) of profit from investments for a certain evaluation period.
Total return in certain markets includes various categories: accrued interest (accrued interest in bond markets), capital gains (paper P/L based on the change in the market price of an asset), dividends, as well as other mandatory distributions due to regulation, for a certain period of time.
Main conclusions
👉 Total return is the actual return on an investment or basket of investments over a given period of time.
👉 Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions, calculated as a percentage of the amount invested.
👉 Total return has a stronger performance vs. Net prices performance, when the amounts that an investor earns on a security over a certain period (in the form of interest, dividends and distributions) are reinvested back into the purchase of additional securities, making higher investment returns over time, according to the principle of compound interest.
👉 Total return are more important when investing in dividend stocks/value investment assets, which have generally low capital appreciation potential relative to Growth assets. But still often outperform them, following a long-term capital reinvestment strategy.
👉 The total return can be formed by the investor both individually, that is through the purchase of additional securities (for the amounts of received interest, dividends and distributions), as well as through mutual and exchange trade funds (ETFs). Of course, bearing in mind and taking into account significant risks, common to all collective investment schemes.
Average annual total return
It is important to analyze the average annual total return for different periods. Comparison of returns against a benchmark of the risk-free rate and inflation shows how efficient or inefficient the issuer of the security has been vs risk-free investments (for example, banking deposits).
When analyzing the average annual total return, it is also important to remember:
👉 Even small discrepancies in the average annual returns on Net prices and Total return prices over time will significantly affect the overall result.
👉 The influence of commissions and exchange fees is also large, despite the fact that they often look like a small amount of a few tenths or hundredths of a percent.
Examples and General Meaning of Net Price Returns and "Total Returns"
👉 At 2.08 percent of the average annual dividend yield of the S&P500 Index over the past 35 years, the return of the corresponding "full return" index SP:SPXTR amounted to 35.98x during this time, while the net price index SP:SPX added only 17.11x, more than 2x down vs yielding of the reinvestment strategy.
👉 Full return reinvestment strategies are important in conditions where financial markets and securities are long-term settling in in wide price (zone) ranges, due to unfavorable or modest general market (macroeconomic) conditions that pushing down stock market and capital growth - for example like in the past 12 - 24 months in SPX as a result of upgoing inflation and Fed interest rates.
Boeing Company: The Underpressured PathBoeing results topped analyst expectations Wednesday thanks to a pickup in commercial aircraft deliveries as the manufacturer increases production, but losses in its defense and space businesses drove the manufacturer into the red for the quarter.
The company generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter, ahead of analyst forecasts, and reiterated its full-year guidance of between $3 billion and $5 billion of free cash flow.
Boeing shares surged 12.70% just in a week, and closed on Friday at $238.69, the stock’s highest closing price since November 2021.
Here’s how the company performed during the period ended June 30, compared with Refinitiv consensus estimates:
👉 Adjusted loss per share: 82 cents vs. 88 cents.
👉 Revenue: $19.75 billion vs. $18.45 billion
👉 Boeing and main rival Airbus have both struggled to increase aircraft production in the wake of the Covid pandemic as some airlines face longer waits for new jets, just as travel demand rebounds.
The company delivered 136 planes in the second quarter, up from 121 aircraft during the same period last year.
Meanwhile just a take a look what historically happened with Boeing stocks, almost every time after 10+ percent weekly advance. In simple words - that's been a flat, or even more than 10 percent decline.
Technical picture indicates that Bearish trend still is in power in NYSE:BA stocks, and 5yrs SMA is still a huge resistance.
SPX500 19/10 MovePair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Bearish Channel Pattern as an Correction in Long Time Frame and Rejection from Lower Trend Line and Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line. Completed " ABC " Correction.
Entry Precautions :
Wait until it Complete its Retest and Rejects
$SPX: The S&P 500's Key Yellow Resistance TargetIn my previous update I discussed that SP:SPX has lost a key support level in the orange support zone. SP:SPX was sitting under resistance as investors waited for Friday jobs data. The strong jobs data led to a spike back up and SP:SPX has successfully regained support at this orange zone again. My current price target for SP:SPX is the yellow resistance trend line.
A barrel of monkeys is no barrel of laughsI'm a bit worried about what's occurring on the 6 month of the S&P. we have made reversions to the 200 day and 200 week, we have found support, but are encountering the weekly ema band as resistance. if the reversion fractals into a monthly we may align w a trip to about 2100, if we are to continue into a 6 month reversion the 200 of the 6 month kind of cutely aligns with the 6 month vector breakout from July 95. This resides at about $600 on the S&P. which would more or less align with an 88% retrace from the highs we put in last year. There are many factors at play here, fed tightening of balance sheets can runoff liquidity that retail and institutions just can't absorb imho. I believe there is a squeeze into september, but I'm very worried what next year brings. A complete rebalancing of indices seems to be ready to happen. Technology needs to be broken into sectors, industrials aren't what they once were, energy will be revalued, precious metals may need new basis pricing, and the world has been put on hold as much as we have returned to "normal" I do think there is an economic boom like never before that comes out of this, but there is some real potential that this whole thing collapses first. Problem is this would just be a reversion to the mean as we have been extremely extended from the point of control. I don't even want to consider a loss of the 6 month 200, but it happens to all align approximately on pi day next year 3/14... go figure right... GL stay safe... def not financial advice
SPX medium term pathwayThis update will be quick, Im very lazy this weekend.
ES short term was already posted earlier today.
There are 2 pathways Im following:
1 - H&S pattern, visible on the chart. That pattern if triggered will make full 5 down into early next year low to finish the whole move down from Jan high.
(Fits perfectly with VIX sky rocket from its below 20 level)
2 - Finishing the C wave up with A being over and B about to start.
Im still looking for 3750 level being hit to close the gap and one more rally over 4200 from there.
This scenario should play out quick or I will take it off the list if B is not reached by mid Dec.
Then a good rally into Jan high above 4200, check the number of the C ending on the chart.
Fibs align perfectly with this pathway!
We have a full Moon on Dec 8th, usually markets tend to make a high or a low at or around the full Moon.
It seems we are going to get one here early next week.
My best pathway is down to 4k tomorrow and rally from there into Tuesday high. There is a huge SPY put wall at 400 for tomorrow, Im sure it will hold on any test tomorrow, so if tested it will be a perfect long entry with a 15-20 points stop.
Or if 4k is broken then we should see 3940-50SPX zone tested which is the strongest support for the whole bull move here, should hold on at least 2 tests imo.
Also VP (volume Profile) line is around 3960SPX level, a perfect magnet.
So my next week game plan is - buy tomorrow low, sell Tuesday high (might stretch to Wed am high), then down we go into a rabbit hole with ideal target at 3745-50SPX.
Main bear bull support line is at 3940-50SPX level for the next week! Below it and this move up is over and the price will retrace back to 3750.
Have a very profitable week!
SPX Must hold 3970 tomorrow am or its goneAs you can see there is a lot of confluence at 3970 level (This chart become quite busy with the trendlines)
If we do gap down tomorrow below 3970, I will be looking to buy 3928-39SPX level for a broken trendline test, if not more.
This chart is similar to the ES, but has a higher level of support, so they have a bit different short term look one from another to my eyes, but the main picture is the same.
I really dont have much of a support if 3890-3910.50 is gone till 3744SPX!
So it better hold that level and ideally the 3928-39SPX support box.
Same as the ES, SPX has its trading cycles bearish now, expect short the rips all the way till the 19th of Dec!
Have a good night