I suspect SPX will end up like BTCAnd I just need some indicator confirmation before pulling the trigger on some puts.
I don't want to crow too loudly, but lots of crypto analysts on Tradingview and/or YouTube have been posting temperamental TA when they wake up, see a candle, and feel compelled to post an update to their TA. Whipped around all over the place as BTC zig and zagged. Many did not zoom out and have forgotten how to look for bull traps. And a lot of these guys are good, I have seem then call bull traps before. Some of them even saw the bearishness but hand waved it away because "we are in a bull market" and a couple of them got liquidated due to stops being too loose. And I stood on my BTC short call, like I am standing on the over-all bearishness of the S&P and Nasdaq and everything else for the next while.
BTC on the right had a perfectly predictable bull trap due to wedge support support flipping as resistance and hidden bearish divergence on the histogram, and all the other stuff I went into on my linked ideas
Likewise a bull trap on SPXUSD can be very predictable. I have SPXUSD up because it has more price action than SPX or SPY. There are some dissimilarities based on percent gains and slope of the resistance and somewhat concerning, it doesn't look as "wedge-ie" as BTCUSD due to the whitespace. What is similar:
Rising wedge
broke down
Very similar resistance zone (in blue)
I will be watching for price action to go to the blue resistance zone and the wedge. I expect price action to thrash around there for a while and then dump. The most ideal thing I could see is there to be hidden bearish divergence from the peak that is about to form to the SPX all time high, and then! classic bearish divergence within the peak, such as a second retest of the wedge after a small dip. The media will be near schizophrenic trying to come up with news stories and will be contradicting themselves all over the place. But I am not going to be caught flat footed by some tweet by Elon or some bungling statement from the "President."
sidenote
I see a potential descending triangle on BTCUSD... It isn't the main point of the post but still, it means that BTC can bounce and meander around resistance for a couple of weeks even, alts can resume going crazy, and then the rug gets proper pulled. I did a quick skim of some of the BTCUSD ideas and could not see anyone eyeballing the same potential pattern, so I thought I would throw it out there.
SPXUSD
SPX500USD 2021 May 03 Week (Intraday)
OANDA:SPX500USD
SPX500USD 2021 May 03 Week (Intraday)
Weekly, Daily - Bullish, H4 = Bearish
Last week, tradeable days were only 29-30 April as market was mostly horizontal prior to 29 April.
Last 2 bars displayed good reversal volume, let's see if this intermediate support can be an indication
of demand coming in.
Caution though if long, keep stops tight because:
Bar 1 is weak given and 2 bars after it doesn't show demand for higher prices.
Possible scenarios:
1) With the trap up move on 1, market may be keen to test the green zone
2) Market in rotation phase between 4124 - 4220, trades would be executed at the boundary.
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Have a good trading week ahead!
S&P500 may drop -3% to -6%.Pattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and since December 21, 2020, every time the index broke below the 4H MA50 it dropped even lower to (or below) the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Target: Anywhere within a -3% to -6% from the recent High. -3% has more chances as as 3 out of 5 MA50 breaks resulted in a -3% drop.
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2021 is like 73s2021 is like 73s. let's see how this play. if it went well, buy dips at bottom if you can.
1. The four most expensive words in investing are: 'This time it's different. '” So said Sir John Templeton, the legendary investor and mutual fund pioneer. The phrase contains tremendous wisdom, but only if you truly understand what it means. ... “This time it's different” has become a ubiquitous phrase...
2. we will see increasing inflation & Covid case worldwide rising this year. they printed many trillions for check stimulus also fourth stimulus check again? also seems coronavirus won't go anywhere. you can see that Covid cases is still rising on worldometers site. Imagine 1-10 million cases daily? it's not great for economy & stock market. seems vaccine is still processing but not completely at all.
3. some investors will say " dollar is in bubble but stock market won't go down" they say same thing in 73s. that's not how this works. dollar inflation makes stock market volatility & shock..
4. The Buffett Indicator at All-Time Highs Is This Cause for Concern?. it shows 223% radio of market value GDP, 79% higher than long term trend line not internet bubble.
seems too higher.
5. 2021. many poor & middle bought stocks & meme from check stimulus while rich people buying at same time. this doesn't age well. "BUY, BUY, BUY" poor getting rich, rich getting richer? nah.
that's not how this works. 2008 & 2020 was different because market was bottom but 2021 Is top not bottom. that's why. Illuminati stays. in 2030, we will see 0.1% top getting richer ever while poor & middle bottom.
my prediction could be wrong or right.
Thank you. Sorry For My Bad English. Enjoy.
RSI bullish divergencePattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price made a bottoming Lower Lows sequence similar to that of January 29.
Target: 4020 - 4050 (the zone around the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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SPX: market feeling toppy, decent opportunity for a short scalpJust as the title says, the market is feeling toppy here (the past 3 daily closes looking a bit like 3 black crows). We are coming into some serious psychological resistance around 4000
let's take advantage of some of this volatility! Depending on how futures play out tonight, I will very likely open some 0dte puts tomorrow (Note that if you were in the money on this kind of thing, don't get cute with it, take your profits when you can)
disclaimer: This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk, etc
good luck everyone!
SPX500USD 2021 Feb 15 Week
OANDA:SPX500USD
SPX500USD 2021 Feb 15 Week
Red/Green zones = preferred entry
Grey = price rotation zones
Last week's long targets
3938 = reached
3913 = reached
Support1 = 3905
Support2 = 3885
Support3 = 3868.8
Demand has come in, will maintain long on dip as long as buy volume can be sustained,
or on rest of 3931 level.
If in the near future reversal price action occurs and close below 3930.90,
then will consider change in direction to short.
Have a safe and profitable trading week.
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Gong Hei Fatt Choi & Happy Chinese New Year to my Chinese friends!
SPX500 - distributionBefore the Chinese New Year.
I think we will go for a correction.
China is the engine of the global economy.
After the Chinese New Year I expect growth in all markets.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analysis.
Write your comments and questions here!
Thanks for your support!
S&P aiming for 4070 - 4200 by MarchPurely RSI and Fibonacci extension based analysis. As you see since the March bottom every Higher High is on a higher Fib extension (0.382, 0.618). Similarly, the Higher Lows have so far followed a 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 Fibonacci retracement sequence.
The RSI is currently trading sideways since mid November. In the previous two Fib cycles, this RSI consolidation came before the new Higher High. Assuming this sequence is extended, then S&P should soon make its new Higher High within the -0.786 - 1.000 Fibonacci zone, which is within 4070 - 4200.
Most recent S&P signal:
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S&P500 aims at 3800Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy (a) if the MACD makes a Bullish Cross (every prior 1D Bullish Cross has delivered an extreme rise), or (b) if the RSI approaches its Higher Lows trend-line.
Target: (a) 3880, (b) 3800
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