SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-20 : GAP PotentialToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will present an opening price gap (in this case lower) and likely attempt to find support near these deep lows.
I really want to point out how my Anomaly call, nearly 45+ days ago, really played out perfectly.
It is so difficult for me to try to explain what I do with my research and analysis - but ultimately I simply call what I see based on the data.
The last few days have prompted me to really push my efforts to continue to deliver superior research and analysis for my followers and subscribers.
Ultimately, it is about helping people learn to become more profitable and learn to wait for the best trade setups.
Gold & Silver are moving into a CRUSH pattern today. This could be a BIG MOVE for metals - and I believe the move will be to the upside. Don't get married to this move yet. The bottom is still setting up for metals.
Bitcoin is collapsing through the EPP pattern. The ultimate low setup could still be a move below $90k, so be prepared for more downward trending throughout the end of 2024.
Get some.
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Spy!
IWM CORRECTIONAs we can see, there has been a correction since the presentation of the FOMC meeting, with a break in the bullish structure we had in the indices. IWM is one of the most bearish indices, breaking bullish structures in the 4-hour timeframe and losing strength in the daily timeframe. Although there hasn’t been a change in the daily timeframe yet, we are losing momentum and should recover the daily channel. In my view, it is the weakest index.
SPX 2025 Strategic Outlook 7150 points Wave Five Bull Market🔸Time to update the SPX outlook, this is 2D price chart, we are
currently entering overpriced zone and limited upside in SPX
going forward next few weeks correction / pullback.
🔸SPX price structure since 2023 is defined by a five wave impulse wave 3 completed already and currently we are in wave 4 pullback/correction until 5415 points. expecting wave four pullback to complete in January 2025.
🔸Wave 1 is 3600 to 4625, wave two 4625 to 4125, wave three 4125 to 6100,wave 4 pullback/correction now is 6100 to 5416, final bullish wave five is expected to start from 5415 to 7150 points (30% bull run). Wave 5 expected to start in January 2025 and complete sometime in Q4 2025. A/B/C 40% correction will follow as the market will enter extremely overbought zone.
🔸Recommended strategy position traders: wait for the wave 4 correction to complete at/near 5415 points in January 2025 and then BUY/HOLD into wave 5 final target is 7150 points in Q4 2025. Obviously, this is a longer BUY/HOLD trade setup and patience is required with this trade. good luck!
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What I Expect Through The New Year Absent A Government Shutdown.Traders, minus a government shutdown, I do expect another altcoin pump. However, the possibility of a shutdown is throwing a big wrench into my thesis. We'll talk about how price action would look in both scenarios as well as discuss the new crypto cycle rotation. You should get to know this new rotation to remain most successful in your trading.
As always, we'll start with the DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVDA and discuss future direction and what it means for our crypto space.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again.
I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward.
Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening.
I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend.
Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now.
Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern.
$95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move.
Get some.
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Weekly Indicator Panel WARNED last weekend...ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators.
You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough.
There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year. Furthermore, the year end and year start are keen indicators of the year ahead as well... so watch closely.
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest.
comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6050
bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood.
Invalidation is above 6100.
short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
SPY to $585?: EOY Price TargetUsing the Magic Linear Regression Channel on TradingView.com we look at some possible scenarios for SPY price movement. A shorter term regression channel shows SPY at the top of the channel and rejecting it today - even with more buyers than sellers in the TradingView Volume Footprint chart view.
The bottom of the channel converges with last pivot low near $584. It could conceivable go lower, but with lower volume likely during the holiday season, it would seem less likely for it to make any more big moves barring some major unexpected event.
S&P500 ETF SPY Testing Support📉 ** AMEX:SPY Testing Key Support!** 📈
The **S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY )** is pressing against a critical support level — the **green trendline** that's been a pivotal bounce zone for months. Will it hold or break? 🤔
🔍 **What’s driving the move?**
- 🔥 **Hawkish FOMC Outlook**: The Fed now sees **fewer rate cuts in 2025 (2 vs. 3 expected)**, keeping rates higher for longer.
- 📢 **Geopolitical Risks**: Powell noted some Fed members are factoring in possible **Trump-era policy risks** (think tariffs & deportation) into their forecasts.
- ⚠️ **Market Reaction**: Growth stocks are under pressure as higher rates impact valuations.
📊 **Why It Matters?**
- If AMEX:SPY holds the support, we could see a technical rebound. 🚀
- A breakdown below the green line could signal further downside risk. 📉
👉 **Traders, are you buying the dip or waiting for the break?**
Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
Why I think the SPX500 upside is now capped to 6285 maxIn this video, I have covered century long Elliott Wave counts briefly to present a case on why we are close to completing the upside and soon will be rolling over to the downside. Only one leg on the upside seem pending and that should not extend beyond 6285.
Watch the video for details.
P.S. - There is some disturbance in audio during start so please bear with me.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-18 : Gap Up LowerPay attention to the SPDR Sectors and how they appear to be moving downward (potentially rolling into a topping pattern).
I believe the US markets may roll into a topping pattern before the January inauguration. President Biden could throw a bunch of curveballs at the US before he ends his term.
I urge traders to stay agile and protect assets. We'll have lots of time to deploy our capital after the Inauguration event.
With only a week before Christmas, I urge everyone to start trading much smaller positions and prepare for a very light trading week through Christmas.
Remember, the markets typically begin to move more aggressively after January 7-10.
Get some.
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SPX 5500 BY 2025 ? REASONS WHY !!!
Optimistic Market Forecasts: Analysts and strategists, such as those from Deutsche Bank and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO, have made bullish predictions for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank's forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 5,100 in 2024, and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield anticipates the S&P to reach as high as 5,500 points by the end of 2024.
These forecasts indicate a strong belief in the market's potential to continue its upward trend.
Strong Earnings and Valuations: The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of 25.7 is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks, which could be a positive sign for further market growth.
Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has already hit 23 new records in 2024 and has been performing above average historical years. This indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence.
Cumulative Weight of Top Stocks: The cumulative weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 has hit a 50-year high. This indicates that the market's performance is being significantly influenced by the performance of a small number of large-cap companies, which could potentially drive the index higher if these companies continue to perform well.
Market Resilience and Recovery: The market has shown resilience and recovery from the economic downturn, with the S&P 500 already up by 9.6% this year, which is above the average year since 1950. This resilience could be a sign of continued growth throughout the year.
Positive Outlook from Analysts: Analysts like CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall predict that the S&P 500 will hit 5,400 by year-end and 5,610 within the next 12 months, indicating a positive outlook for the market's performance.
Potential Rate Cuts: The expectation of rate cuts by the European Central Bank could provide a boost to the global economy and the U.S. markets, including the S&P 500.
Positive Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment seems to be positive, with a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 from various analysts and strategists. This positive sentiment could drive further investment and growth in the market.
Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector has been a leading performer, soaring 50%, indicating strong growth in this sector, which could help drive the S&P 500 higher.
Economic Data Surprises: The U.S. economy has been showing positive surprises in economic data throughout 2023, suggesting that the economy is stronger than expected, which could support the market's growth.
TESLA 300 AFTER EARNINGS ? 3 STRONG REASONS !!
Strong EV Market Position:
Tesla’s electric vehicles (EVs) remain popular, with the Model Y and Model 3 ranking among the top-selling vehicles in the U.S. in 2023. Even as legacy automakers enter the market, Tesla’s success suggests continued consumer preference for its vehicles.
Cybertruck:
Tesla’s long-awaited Cybertruck could be a game-changer. Pickup trucks have high gross profit margins, and if Tesla prices the Cybertruck right, it could boost their overall profitability1.
Regulatory Credits and Rebates: As Europe tightens regulations on internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, Tesla may receive more regulatory credits (from competitors like Fiat) going forward.
Full Self-Driving (FSD) Technology: Analysts estimate that Tesla’s FSD technology could potentially raise earnings per share by $1-$2 annually through the end of the decade.