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Gold topped $2500 per ounce psychological high. Here's whyThe price of spot gold climbed $2500 per ounce to a new record high, by mid-August, 2024. The Yellow metal has rallied 21.5% this year, and this is the best result in this time against Top 4 american indices - Dow Jones Industrial Avg (DJIA), SP500 (SPX), Small cap Russell2000 (RUT) and full of tech stocks Nasdaq-100 indices (NDX). Gold jumped as much as 1.8% on Friday, as investors inflation expectations are still extremely high, and still there're no convincing sign that major Russia - Ukraine conflict as well as Israel - Arab conflict are near to be settled. Even recent weakness in US labor market and new-home starts fall to the lowest level since 2020 give no power to Federal Reserve (US Central Bank) to cut an interest rate even to 1/4 per cent. Last 2 years, a lot of banksters forecasted that Fed will cut interest rate. In fact - it still didn't. Just blah-blah-blah and super-duper AI hype, which based on nothing. In technical terms, spot Gold breaks its $2500 psychological high, ready to go further, up to 3k.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PandorraResearch
Mag 7 Earnings - Something will Break (Ceiling or Floor?)797 stocks reporting earnings next week Notables include GOOGL LLY CAT META MSFT COIN AMZN AAPL XOM CVX MA V $15 trillion in market cap at play as the US markets are still very close to all-time highs with a melty-uppy vibe. I'm cautiously bullish and could certainly see the highs get blown off with strong earnings momentum dominating the sentiment. I could also see Mag 7 disappoint investors with "not enough growth" and any pullbacks on Mag 7 will certain drag on the entire market. Survive next week, then it's onto the US Election, FED, Non-Farm Payroll. No big deal, it's just trading :) Thanks for watching!!!
HKEX:HSI1!
by ChrisPulver
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February. These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table. Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2. The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/ With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature. Fears & Greed Awakening. 👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively. 👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero. Technical observations 👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough. 👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark. 👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
AMEX:AGG
by PandorraResearch
Understanding The Basics Of AI/Inference Engine ConstructionRecently, there has been a lot of discussion related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work. In short, without disclosing proprietary code/quants, I built an inference engine based on Fibonacci, GANN, and Tesla theories. Part of this inference engine is to identify the highest probable outcome related to the patterns. This is not rocket-science. This is the same process your brain does when determining when and what to trade. The only difference is I'm doing a bunch of proprietary calculations/quants related to data and price theory in the background, then the inference engine determines the best, most likely outcome. Take a few minutes to watch this video and try to understand the difference between static and dynamic modeling. Again, my objective is to help as many traders as possible. My Plan Your Trade videos are my opinions based on my skills, knowledge, and proprietary modeling systems/tools. None of my tools are 100% accurate all the time - nothing is. But, I do believe the quality of information and instructional information I provide is invaluable to most traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by BradMatheny
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-25: Rally111 PatternHappy Friday, Today is potentially the start of a moderate rally phase in the SPY/QQQ headed toward my predicted peak level near October 30-31. Although this week has had lots of rotation, we've seen the markets hold up pretty well. Tesla surprised with earnings recently after Boeing and other issues prompted a bit of panic selling. My research suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher over the next 3-4 days - attempting to setup a peak just before the election. The 3-4 days prior to the election are likely to be very volatile as liquidity dries up. Traders need to stay keenly aware of risks over the next 15+ days - even after the election day. Whatever happens on election day, we are likely to see some moderate level of unrest and challenges related to who won. I believe the current election will be the most watched and validated election in US history. Everyone is watching for errors and shenanigans this time. As traders, our #1 job is to protect capital. That is why I suggested traders more to 80-85% CASH over the past 2+ weeks. There is no reason to be engaged in this market at full allocation levels when I expect the markets to become extremely volatile (and potentially prompt a flash-crash type of event). Remember, lack of liquidity means extreme price volatility. Gold and Silver are moving into another rally phase. Get ready to see Gold above $2800. Bitcoin is still consolidating - just as I expected. This is the time to play it smart. Trade smaller allocation levels and prepare to hedge against risk factors over the next 2-3 weeks. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
$BOX Consolidating – Coiling?I have had my eye on Box, Inc. since its last earnings. It has spent most of the time since then consolidating and letting the 50 DMA (red) catch up. I have also been looking at the AVWAP(s) from both earnings date and the 52-week high on Sept 17th (both light green). I have an alert set for a break above that tight area (both light green) where I will look for a low risk / reward entry. I am looking for this to rally into earnings, about a month away. All TBD. NYSE:BOX : Box and AWS partner to bring powerful generative AI models and capabilities to enterprise content. Briefing.com
NYSE:BOXLong
by jaxdog
Working To Unlock The 3-6-9 Secrets Of The MarketRecently, there have been a lot of questions related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work. I've often stated that these patterns are based on Gann, Tesla, and Fibonacci's price theory. However, underlying all that is a core component related to the 3-6-9 (secrets of the universe) theory. This video tries to introduce you to the concepts of the 3-6-9 theory and how it overlays with Gann, Tesla, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlesticks, and more. My focus for the past 24+ months has been to unlock this theory's secrets and develop a practical use component (code) that attempts to provide very clear future trading/price predictions. Spend some time watching this video. See what you think and open your mind to the concept that price moves through construction and destruction phases (likely based on the 3-6-9 concepts). At the end of this video, I share some practical knowledge/examples showing why I believe the 3-6-9 theory is critical to unlocking the true secrets of market price action. I may never be able to unlock all of it, but I'm dedicated to trying to unlock as much as I can within my lifetime. This drives me to build code solutions and attempt to improve my skills. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
7
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-24 : Breakaway PatternToday's trading should begin to resolve as a reversion back to the upside after yesterday's panic selling. I spend a lot of time going over what happens when news or outside events disrupt price action and sometimes disrupt my SPY Cycle Patterns so everyone can try to understand how the SPY Cycle Patterns work. My SPY Cycle Patterns are not immune to news or outside events. They attempt to predict what price will "most likely" try to do for a day based on Fibonacci, GANN, Tesla, and Rodin Vortex Math concepts. They don't attempt to predict or address any outside news, geo-political, earnings, or other external data. As I like to describe them.. They represent price characteristics, showing what price would most likely attempt to do if no outside event disrupts the markets. Given yesterday's panic selling and the fairly strong recovery/reversion we are seeing in early trading, I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move into a moderate rally phase lasting till October 30-31, then move aggressively downward just before the US Elections. Gold and Silver will follow roughly the same path but may become even more volatile just before the elections. Bitcoin is still consolidating sideways - just as I expected/suggested. Please pay attention to my comments about HEDGING and POSITION SIZING over the next 3+ weeks. These market trends (with lower liquidity) can often be very difficult for all traders. It is better to cut your trading allocation down to 20-25% of normal sizes throughout these election cycles (especially so close to a hotly contested election). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
2
10/23 5th time BTC rejected from 70k. Bullish? Overview: The AMEX:SPY saw a healthy pullback of 0.9%, with a long wick touching levels last observed on September 26th. The index trended downward from the start of the trading session but rebounded sharply in the last two hours, doubling the volume seen earlier in the day. This surge formed a hammer candle—a bullish indicator, particularly when accompanied by increased volume. Existing home sales in the U.S. dropped 1% from the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September 2024, marking the lowest level since October 2010. Today, new home sales and initial jobless claims are expected, with forecasts set at 245k, slightly above the previous reading of 241k. If the numbers come in lower than expected, it would suggest the economy is not cooling sufficiently, potentially extending inflation. This decline could be attributed to a rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which jumped 14 basis points to 6.82%, the highest since July 26 and a 71-basis-point increase since the Fed’s last major rate cut. The likelihood of a rate cut in November has now dropped to 7%, influenced heavily by the Fed's upcoming reports. Given the weakening housing data, a rate cut may still be necessary to support the economy. The recent market correction has exposed different strategies among ETF managers. BlackRock continues to buy aggressively, maintaining its purchase levels even after a 5% correction, keeping its stance bullish. Fidelity has remained neutral, staying on the sidelines since the peak of the current bull wave. ARK Invest, however, bought heavily at the top but is now selling during the correction, realizing losses. In summary: BlackRock is bullish, Fidelity is neutral, and ARK is bearish. BTC TA: W: BTC is slowly forming this week's red candle, but bullish hopes persist. D: A significant correction unfolded, as the triple divergence likely completed. The day's wick dipped below $65.8k, then bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level, calculated from the bullish pump that began on Monday, October 14th. Despite the pullback, BTC showed higher volume and managed to recover. The final daily candle formed a bullish hammer, although the volume wasn't notably higher than the last two bearish days. As previously mentioned, as long as $62.7k holds, the bullish outlook remains intact. Drawing trendlines for BTC this year shows the current upper boundary is slightly sloped downward—forming the top of what appears to be a bullish flag. It follows a large rally, with a slight pullback and consolidation, setting up for another potential breakout. Last Friday, on the 18th, the trendline was broken, suggesting a bullish confirmation if retested. However, yesterday’s price action pushed BTC below this trendline. Of course, the trendline could be adjusted to fit the bullish narrative, but the key level to watch is $66.5k. 4h: A sharp drop occurred yesterday, but most of it was recovered in the latter half of the day. This dip seems correlated with the S&P 500’s drop. BTC lost the local point of control at $66.8k but regained it. If bearish momentum continues this week without positive news, and if BTC falls below $65.8k, the next critical support is the yearly level of $62.7k. However, this would be the fourth or even fifth time this year that BTC has been rejected from $70k. If that happens again, will there be enough bullish momentum left to hold $62.7k? The candle that bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level formed a green hammer with above-average volume—a bullish sign. 1h: The hourly chart shows a V-shaped recovery, an uncommon pattern in market behavior. Beyond that, no additional insights. Alts Relative to BTC: Interestingly, SOL has been rising while the rest of the market declines. Some attribute this to renewed interest in memecoins. However, popular Solana-based memecoins like WIF, BONK, and MEW are down, with only Popcat showing gains. Bull Case: BTC faces rejection at $70k, followed by a deep pullback, and the Fed decides not to cut rates in November. Bear Case: The Fed cuts rates, and BTC rallies. Fear and Greed Index: The index is at 52, continuing its downward trend this week. Opportunities : Check BINANCE:APTUSDT for a possible short opportunity. If SUI and TAO already corrected after their big pump, APT still wobbles at the top and recently posted bearish shooting star daily candle with high volume.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
AWS growth fuels long-term potential despite uncertainties.I significantly increased my AMZN position ahead of earnings, as AWS is seeing astronomical growth and is set to be the standout star of this decade. With its high Beta and growth potential, AMZN deserves a large portion of my portfolio. I find Wall Street’s $220 price target reasonable. Short-term, we’re trading sideways, and with MACD indecisive, my first buy zone is around $180 during pullbacks. If it reaches $166, which I doubt, that’s where I’ll go all in. For now, it seems to be pulling back from resistance, but I’m not concerned.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Tolgaun6
Index struggles at Fibonacci resistance amid concerns.The index appears unable to break through its Fibonacci resistance, which is expected given the prolonged impulsive trend and upcoming elections, alongside rising 'no landing' fears. Earnings reports are solid, and with financials (XLF) looking strong, I'm not concerned. The financial sector often serves as a leading indicator for the broader index, so I view the current 2-3 week stagnation as normal. I still see the biggest opportunity in the AI narrative, and will look to buy during pullbacks.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Tolgaun6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-23 : Gap/Breakaway PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to move higher in a potential Gap/Breakaway mode. I read this as a potential for an opening price gap (likely higher) and trending upward throughout most of today. I will point out that I believe the QQQ will not follow this same pattern. The expectation I drew earlier with my SPY Cycle Patterns suggests the QQQ will attempt to consolidate today - possibly moving slightly downward. This can, and often does, happen when we get a divergence between the SPY & QQQ. Gold & Silver appear to be moving into my expected Rally phase over the next 4+ trading days. I believe Gold and Silver will attempt to rally about 2.5% to 3.5% higher before reaching a peak near 10-29~10-30. Bitcoin is consolidating in the Phase #4 Excess Phase peak pattern - just as I suggested. Watch for support to form near 65,600 or slightly higher. I believe this congestion phase will last until after November 2-4 - be aware. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
26
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Rally ContinuationThis quick update related to my SPY/GOLD cycle patterns, and other research/predictions, is to help you plan and prepare for the pending rally phase in the markets. Based on my research, the markets will likely pause a bit tomorrow, Wednesday, and move into a basing/bottoming phase - where price will attempt to develop support. From that support, I see a fairly strong rally taking place on Thursday and lasting into late- Monday/mid-Tuesday next week. As I have urged traders to stay cautious over the next 15+ days (elections and liquidity issues), this may be a great time to play the last rally phase before the 3-5 day pullback just before the US elections. Watch this video. Follow my research. If you are new to what I'm doing, then watch my Plan Your Trade videos for a week or two. See if you like my style of analysis and if it helps you improve your trading. My objective is to help as many traders as possible. I'm not 100% accurate in my predictions - but I believe my research is uncomparable to others in what I'm capable of presenting/sharing with all of you. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 10-22: Gap Reversal In Counter-TrendToday's Gap Reversal in Counter Trend mode should resolve as a moderate downward early price trend - possibly transitioning into a base/bottom and turning higher near the end of the trading day today. Looking at the charts, it appears price is actually leading my SPY Cycle Patterns by about 12+ hours right now. Why?? I don't actually know why - but it appears price is anticipating the cycle patterns a bit early. Given the heightened sense of concern related to the elections, price may be rolling through stages of liquidity and volatility with only about 15 days to go before the elections. Either way, as I suggested, this week is going to be tough to trade with the markets moving into a pause phase ahead of the elections. Most traders are trying to position assets away from the markets or are planning on riding things out past the elections right now. I continue to suggest traders scale back allocation levels this week and next because of the issues related to liquidity in the markets. Look for the SPY/QQQ to attempt to find a base and try to melt upward near the end of trading today. Gold & Silver should stay rather muted today. Bitcoin is consolidating - just as I suggested. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
16
10/22 Triple divergence is playing out. How deep?Overview: The AMEX:SPY closed down by only 0.16%, despite opening lower than Friday’s close. During the second trading hour, the index dropped 0.5% but managed to recover the losses throughout the day. Only a few AMEX:SPY stocks ended in the green, with Nvidia gaining 4.14%. Despite this minor pullback, the index has seen six consecutive weeks of growth, and one red weekly candle wouldn't derail a bull run that has gained 23% since the start of the year. The tech-heavy NASDAQ:QQQ also closed in the green, up 0.19%, thanks to Nvidia’s boost. The U.S. Leading Indicator Index (LEI) fell by 0.5% month-over-month to 99 in September, a steeper decline than the expected -0.3% and more significant than the -0.2% drop in August, according to The Conference Board’s report on Monday. From March through September 2024, the LEI dropped 2.6%, exceeding the 2.2% decline in the previous six-month period. "Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid." This index has been decreasing since March 2022, and Monday’s reading officially places it below its lowest point during the COVID-19 period in April 2020. However, the rate of decline appears to be slowing. Meanwhile, companies are still reporting better-than-expected earnings. Some well-known names reporting today include GE Aerospace (Boeing's engine supplier), Philip Morris, Verizon, General Motors, 3M, Enphase, and Invesco (owners of the QQQ ETF). The CME Watch Tool now shows an 11.1% chance of no rate cut on November 7th, up from last week’s 9.3%. While BTC dropped 2.40% on Monday, BlackRock still bought $329 million worth of BTC ETFs. It’s almost amusing to think that BlackRock could be acting as someone’s exit liquidity. The firm now owns 362,192 bitcoins, valued at $23.169 billion. BTC TA: W: Unfortunately for the bulls, BTC closed last week at $69k, which is below the highs of the last two bullish waves in late March and early June. D: Monday ended with a 2.40% correction—much needed after last week's strong rally. A timely release of pressure increases the likelihood of the bull run continuing. An important level to maintain is $66.9k, as it’s the point of control for this recent rally starting from October 10th. The next support levels are $65.8k and the key yearly support at $62.7k. Breaking below $62.7k would invalidate the current bullish wave. On the bearish side, Monday’s candle engulfed the previous five trading days (including the weekend). Before the pullback, the RSI hit 70. 4h: As we spotted and wrote about in our previous letter - the 4-hour chart showed MACD, CVD, and RSI divergences, with three consecutive declining peaks as the price continued climbing. The correction began on Sunday evening, and it may take more than a day to fully play out. The key level to hold now is $66.8k—if it breaks, the price may fall to the daily level of $65.8k. So far, it’s holding. 1h: The 1-hour chart looks bullish, as the $66.9k level is holding, with some bullish MACD and RSI divergence showing. Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR have not declined as much as BTC. However, SUI has dropped more significantly by 5%, and TAO by 9%. APT is unexpectedly pumping, while DOGE is up by 27.30%. Seems like alts are diverging from BTC correction. At least the aren't collapsing 7 - 10%, which was the case in the past with BTC falling by 2.4%. Bull Case: BTC could be correcting slightly before resuming the bull run. If a recession is avoided, Trump wins the election, and rates are cut, the outlook remains positive. Bear Case: BTC may have reached an old resistance level without breaking it, confirming it as a solid resistance, and initiating a deeper correction. Fear and Greed Index: The index is back to Neutral at 57, down from the Greed territory of 60 over the weekend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital