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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its meeting on May 6–7, despite political pressure to lower it. Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Economic Indicators on Tap This week brings several important economic data releases, including the U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, consumer credit, and wholesale inventories. These indicators will provide insights into the health of the economy amid ongoing trade tensions and concerns over consumer confidence. 💼 Corporate Earnings in Focus Major companies such as Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Walt Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Ford ( NYSE:F ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. Investors will be watching these reports for signs of how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 🌐 Global Events and Leadership Changes Europe is set for significant leadership changes, with Friedrich Merz expected to be confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. Additionally, the Vatican’s conclave to elect a new pope convenes on Wednesday. These events, along with the 80th anniversary of VE Day, may have broader implications for global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 5: 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Composite PMI (April Final) 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April) 📅 Tuesday, May 6: 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March) 📅 Wednesday, May 7: 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 📅 Thursday, May 8: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March) 📅 Friday, May 9: 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
If you think the 2025 bottom is in you couldn't be more wrongIf you think the bottom for 2025 is in and it's only up from here let me have what you're smoking. Just a puff, please! About 80% of social media retail traders are confidently calling a bottom, that's a major contrarian signal. Herding equals danger! If everyone is bullish, most are already positioned long leaving a few buyers to push prices higher. It's known as "pain trade" where markets often move in the direction that causes the most discomfort. Many of loudest voices are retail traders influencers chasing engagement, not portfolio managers or data driven strategists. AMEX:SPY SP:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN
A
by ProfitTradeRoom
7
S&P Melt-Up, FOMC, Gold, Bitcoin - Key Levels and OutlooksHappy Saturday!!! I just finished a live roundtable session so charts and analysis was fresh on the mind. S&P just closed 9 consecutive days higher S&P Futures 9 green candles The melt-up has been slow and steady, but persistent Markets are now "repaired" back to or above the US Liberation Day break levels on April 2/April 3 I see some near-term resistance in the S&P with FOMC coming this week. There are some reasonable gaps lower for some pullbacks, but the PAIN trade persists. The "pain" trade now is higher highs because sentiment is so bearish. The "pain" trade if we see all-time highs would be a bull trap. FED is likely staying paused for May and June per the FED Watch Tool and the first rate cut may start in July 2025. But I'm watching US Yields to see if they persist higher because that may ruin the FED's plan and power and 40+ year correlations. Eyes wide open and small risk. Short-term strategies are doing well in this environment. I'll continue to grind. Thanks for watching!!!
CBOE:XSP
by ChrisPulver
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 566.62 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 542.79 Recommended Stop Loss - 579.54 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AShort
by AnabelSignals
2
May 2nd Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** May 2nd Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** EOD accountability report: +821 Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup: Another great day in the market, Signals worked decent. **Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System** — 12:50 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :check: — 1:12 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal :x: — 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
3
$RDDT Earnings Beat 30% / Earnings Growth 101.6%I have taken a position in NYSE:RDDT at $120.50 and I will put my stop on a definitive close under the 21 EMA (blue). At the current price that would be about an 8% stop. (Sometimes I take positions off before they hit my stop loss if it is not acting well.) I am looking for this to retake its prior leadership but it may not. From ATH to lowest low was a 65% drop. It has gained about 26% of that back. If you like this idea, please make it your own trade that fits with your trading rules. Reddit Beat Expectations Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 4:06 PM ET Reddit (RDDT) reported earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $392.36 million for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.02 per share on revenue of $373.33 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.10 per share. The company beat expectations by 30.00% while revenue grew 61.49% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects second quarter revenue of $410.0 million to $430.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $399.36 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2025. Reddit is a community of communities built on shared interests, passion, and trust and is home to the most open and authentic conversations on the internet.
NYSE:RDDTLong
by jaxdog
Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Max Profit: 5.13 ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04% Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
ALong
by NaughtyPines
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-2-25 : Major CRUSH PatternToday's pattern is a Major CRUSH pattern in Counter-Trend mode. These types of patterns (CRUSH patterns) are usually very large range bars that move against the current price trend. A Counter-trend Major CRUSH pattern would likely be a huge bar that moves counter to a counter-trend - thus potentially BULLISH. Today, I have my reservations related to how this Major Crush pattern will setup. As I stated in my video, yesterday's price bar setup an Island type of bar (in an Evening formation) which is very typical of a topping pattern. Today, I'm expecting the markets to sell downward into the Major CRUSH pattern. I believe the move of my MRM system into Bullish Trending yesterday sets up a perfect opportunity for the markets to shake out the longs on a big CRUSH pattern today. But, I've also highlighted bullish breakaway levels on the SPY/QQQ chart for traders to be prepared for any outcome today. In short, I believe the May 2-5 Major Bottom aligns with this Major CRUSH pattern as a downward price trend today. But, I'll be prepared to take my lumps if I'm wrong and the markets rally straight upward. Over the past few days, we've seen some interesting developments in China and other places. I do not believe the US market is immune from the global slowdown which is taking place right now. Therefore, I urge traders to continue to stay protected from risks and to keep allocation levels rather small. It may seem like a fantastic time to throw out some big trades - but it is still very dangerous in this extreme volatility. I see Gold and Silver trying to base/bottom near recent lows over the next 5+ days. I still believe Gold will be trading at or near $4100 before the end of May. Bitcoin seems to have followed the SPY/QQQ upward since April 21. I believe this is pure speculation. I'm still very cautious of a breakdown in the markets right now. Let's see how this Major CRUSH pattern plays out. It should be interesting - one way or the other (again, I'm still leaning toward a BEARISH breakdown in price today). Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
20
May 1st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**May 1st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** EOD accountability report: +441 Sleep: 7 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup: Signals were pretty solid today, but there's heavy MM manipulation in the market so be careful trading funded accounts. Walk away if you get tilted. **Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System** 9:51 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 11:31 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal 12:08 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 1:47 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! Next day plan--> Over 5600 = Bullish, Under 5600 = Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Behind The Scenes ResearchI want to say thank you to all of you and to share with you all the work/resources/servers/and other data I maintain to help me identify where and how the markets will present opportunities to all of us. This video shows you a bit of the behind-the-scenes work I do and some of my proprietary modeling systems. I'm not sharing this with you to try to win you over or to tell you I do more than anyone else in terms of research. I'm sure there are many others who go much further than I do in terms of trying to dissect the markets and the opportunities available. But I do believe I deliver very unique research, which is a one-of-a-kind solution for traders. Again, I'm not 100% accurate (I wish I were). But I am trying to share some of the decision-making solutions I use to understand where the markets are likely to move over the next 2- 4+ months and how traders can profit from my research. Remember, you are only seeing about 10% of my total research, tools, modeling systems, and capabilities in these Plan Your Trade videos. I want to thank all of you who continue to value my work. It is not easy. It takes money, time, and resources to continue to monitor all of these systems/algos. The end result, I believe, is one of the most unique future/current modeling system resources you can find anywhere. Again, thank you for making my research a success. I promise to do more and improve my tools over the next 12+ months for everyone to find better profits. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AEducation
by BradMatheny
2
Elliott Wave top on SPY’s monthly chartTechnical Analysis: Wave Structure (Elliott Wave) • Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom. • Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven. • Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure. • Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out). Bearish Signals: • Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior. • Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion. • (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows: • Wave A targeting ~$420–440. • Wave B dead cat bounce. • Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement). Fibonacci Confluence Zones: • 0.382 = ~$450 • 0.5 = ~$390 • 0.618 = ~$340 These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing. Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative: • Sticky inflation • Rising interest payments on U.S. debt • Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime) • Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
AShort
by graphsandcoffee
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 2, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Rising Unemployment Claims Signal Labor Market Softening Initial jobless claims increased by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, marking the highest level since late February. Continuing claims also rose to 1.916 million, indicating potential cracks in the labor market. 🏭 Manufacturing Sector Contracts Amid Tariff Pressures The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, indicating a second consecutive month of contraction. Tariffs on imported goods have strained supply chains and elevated input prices, contributing to the downturn. 📉 Construction Spending Declines Construction spending decreased by 0.5% in March, reflecting reduced investments in both residential and nonresidential projects. This decline suggests caution in the construction sector amid economic uncertainties. 📊 Mixed Signals from Manufacturing Indices While the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates contraction, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 50.2 in April, suggesting stability in some manufacturing segments despite broader challenges. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, May 2: 💼 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) Provides insight into employment trends and overall economic health. 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) Measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. 💰 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) Indicates wage growth and potential inflationary pressures. 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing sector strength. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AShort
by TrendTao
SPY at 3 important event! POC, 200 ema and 30 days reversalHi All SPY is at an interesting intersection: 1) a month from where it crashed and reversed entirely 2) At point of control (POC) from the top in Feb 3) at 200 ema In Aug 22 SPY reversed from POC, at other times it found support or broke out with a gap My opinion is, it will continue going up till 13th May (date when CPI is published). Nobody knows for sure how much tariff will impact CPI. It cannot as bad as we had during covid.
ALong
by krisoz
Today is oct 14th 1929 I have moved back to Long puts at 105%The chart posted was in the forecast written dec 8th 2024 We have now reached my targets of 5669 area I have been buying the dips in calls and made $ I am now 105 % long in the money puts and I do Not see a bottom until july once we break and a second bottom mid oct The market should see a drop of 38 % into july and form a small double bottom in oct at 41 % off the highs . I will move to 125 % long puts on a sell stop at 5300 even the math at 5334 is key Best of trades WAVETIMER
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
11
Nasdaq-100 Goes Back to 'PRE-PAIN' 20 000 Level. Series IIApril has gone.. Wow.. Duh..!? ..really? ... or still not!? Briefly a month ago or so, we have examined at our wonderful @PandorraResearch Team what is 'Revenge Trading', watch our recent 'Educational' idea right here (if you missed one), to learn what sort of lessons we should know about it. Indeed, it was a really bad story, to purchase in late March 2025 most-hyped so-known Mag Seven stock that came flagships of the recent stock market collapse. First of all, watch how it's been below (late March 2025) 👇👇 What's happened next just in a week or two since our publications has been made? ⚒ Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT 95% stocks were: DOWN ⚒ S&P500 Index SP:SPX 96% stocks were: DOWN ⚒ Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX as well as Dow Jones Industrial Averages DJIA indices: 97% stocks were DOWN ⚒ Magnificent Seven: ALL STOCKS WERE DOWN Since Nasdaq-100 went back to pre-pain 20'000 Level, lets repeat some lessons. Revenge trading is DANGEROUS AND HARMFUL pracrice where traders, after suffering a loss, attempt to immediately recoup their losses by making impulsive, emotionally-driven trades. This behavior is widely recognized as one of the major reasons traders lose significant amounts of money and often blow up their accounts. Why Revenge Trading Is Bad 1. Emotional Decision-Making Replaces Strategy When traders engage in revenge trading, they abandon their carefully crafted trading strategies and risk management rules. Instead, trades are made based on anger, frustration, or the desire to "get back" at the market. This emotional state clouds judgment, leading to irrational decisions such as increasing position sizes recklessly, disregarding stop-loss orders, or chasing trades without proper analysis. As a result, the likelihood of making successful trades plummets. 2. Escalating Losses and Account Blowups The urge to recover losses quickly often leads traders to double down or over-leverage their positions, exposing a large portion of their capital to additional risk. Statistically, 80% of revenge trading ends disastrously, with only a small fraction experiencing temporary success before ultimately facing larger losses. This cycle of chasing losses can rapidly erode trading capital, making recovery increasingly difficult. 3. Psychological Burnout and Stress Revenge trading is mentally and emotionally exhausting. The constant cycle of loss and frantic attempts to recover can lead to stress, depression, and burnout. This further impairs decision-making, creating a vicious cycle of poor performance and deteriorating mental health. 4. Long-Term Damage to Trading Habits Repeatedly succumbing to revenge trading ingrains bad habits, making it difficult for traders to maintain discipline and consistency in the long run. This lack of consistency undermines the potential for sustainable profitability and can end trading careers prematurely. Recent Real-World Examples Recent years have seen numerous cautionary tales illustrating the dangers of revenge trading (all links are from r/wallstreetbets subreddit for learing/ educational purposes only): $40,000 Lost on NVDA Options (2024). A trader repeatedly doubled down on Nvidia (NVDA) put options during its price rally in mid-2024. Despite initial small wins, the trader, driven by the urge to recover losses, continued to increase his position size, ultimately losing over $40,000. $26,000 Lost in 20 Minutes on SPX. A Reddit user reported losing $26,000 in about 20 minutes trading the S&P 500 index (SPX) after prices dropped sharply. The loss was the result of impulsive trades made in an attempt to quickly recover from earlier setbacks. From $27,000 to $0 in Three Days. Another trader turned $500 into $27,000 in just a few days, only to lose it all within 48 hours after a market reversal. Instead of taking profits or stepping back, the trader kept chasing losses with increasingly risky trades, ending up with nothing. $100,000 Loss on a Yen Carry Trade. A trader, influenced by news of geopolitical tensions, made a large leveraged bet on the yen. After an initial loss, he refused to cut his losses and doubled down, ultimately losing $100,000 instead of accepting a smaller $30,000 hit. More juicy stories are to be collected... These stories are not isolated incidents. They are echoed across trading forums and social media, serving as stark warnings of how quickly revenge trading can destroy even substantial gains. Conclusion Revenge trading is DANGEROUS AND HARMFUL because it replaces rational, strategic decision-making with emotional reactions, leading to escalating financial losses, psychological distress, and long-term damage to trading discipline. The real-world examples from the past year underscore that no trader-regardless of experience-is immune to its risks. The best defense is to recognize the urge, step away, and return only with a clear, objective mindset and a disciplined strategy. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CME_MINI:NQM2025
by PandorraResearch