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9/13 Will BTC Hold the Line? Eyes on Rate Cut and Reversal!Overview: Phone vibrates... Voice: "Bogdanoff, he panic sold." Bogdanoff: "Temporary bottom, reversal." Voice: "He’s not biting." Bogdanoff: "Pump it and paint a bull flag." The VANTAGE:SP500 has posted five consecutive days of gains, stopping just 0.71% short of its all-time high. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:QQQ still needs to rise another 5.84% to match its previous peak. However, both indices have seen declining volume for the past three days, signaling that market participants are bracing for Wednesday’s rate cut. Whether it will impact crypto positively or negatively is the big question. Given the meteoric rise this week, Monday and Tuesday are expected to be flat or slightly negative as traders take profits ahead of anticipated volatility. ETF flows are showing signs of divergence. On Friday, Fidelity retail traders loaded up on COINBASE:BTCUSD while Blackrock sat on the sidelines once again. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to be ignored, with Grayscale Trust even selling. Are altcoins really that depressing? W: Bitcoin broke through the $58.4K weekly level but still has a long way to go before signaling a trend reversal. BTC needs to cross and hold above the $63K level to confirm a weekly uptrend. This week will likely close with a solid green candle, although a Sunday evening sell-off could bring the price back to the moving average around $58K. D: As we mentioned yesterday, "This is either a chance to enter at the beginning of a new bull wave or the highest BTC will be in a long time." BTC crossed the Bollinger Bands’ moving average and the weekly level, moving into a new range between $58.4K and $61.47K. 4h: The price is now at an overbought RSI level of 70.89, signaling short-term bearishness. 1h: RSI is even more overbought at 77.06. Alts relative to BTC: As noted earlier, the BTC vs. alts divergence is currently unfolding. Of the major coins, only BINANCE:TAOUSDT has outpaced BTC’s 4% rise, with a 9% gain. Still, there's no sign of TAO being listed on Coinbase. Bull case: If Jerome Powell manages a smooth landing, we could see gains from big tech stocks like Nvidia being recycled into small-cap tech and crypto. Following the first couple of rate cuts, if inflation remains under control and employment stable, the Fed could continue its policies, boosting global liquidity and fueling the final phase of the 2024 crypto bull run. Bear case: ..phone vibrates. Voice: "Bogdanoff, he bought." Fear and Greed Index: 38.35, still in Fear territory. The last time BTC was at $60.3K, the Fear and Greed Index was between 43 and 55. Could this be another divergence? Prediction: Expect a short-term correction to $58.4K, followed by rate cut-induced volatility next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
SPY 09/12Well on track for the big blow-off top idea. Expecting to see 565 in the next few days, then potentially higher to new ATH Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:SPYLong
by variable_not_defined
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-13 : Rally DayPlease take a minute to watch this video, and possibly some of my earlier videos from this week, as we continue to see the SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin continue to move through an Excess Phase Peak pattern. It is very important for traders to understand the eventual A/B outcome of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. For the SPY/QQQ, we are still flagging into what is very likely to be a rolling top pattern - setting up a broad downward price trend in the near future. The only thing that can stop that rollover top is a rally to new ATHs (which can happen to invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern). Because of these pattern setups, it is important to see were the SPY ends this current rally phase and if the SPY can rally above the recent ATH levels or not. Gold is moving into a temporary topping pattern above $2600. I would think the 2613 level would be the ideal topping level for Gold - but I would expect Gold to struggle to move up to the 2613 level at this point. Bitcoin is showing an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. I go into detail about this pattern and what we need to look for over the next few weeks. Ultimately, I believe the markets are moving into a transitional price rollover ahead of the election. Plan, prepare, and Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY Daily Chart Analysis: Approaching Key Resistance at $564Looking at the SPY daily chart, the price has recovered well from its recent pullback and is now approaching a significant resistance level around $564. Key Levels: Resistance at $564: The green dashed line highlights this key resistance zone. SPY has tested this level multiple times, and we’re nearing another test. Each time the price approached this zone, it faced rejection, making it a critical level to break for continued upside. Support at $552.49: This is the immediate support zone, and it’s holding strong. Any pullback towards this level would be a natural correction but as long as we stay above it, the bulls remain in control. What I Expect: Potential Breakout: If SPY manages to break and hold above $564, we could see a significant rally, possibly testing higher resistance levels around $570. However, failure to break this resistance might lead to another pullback, with $552 acting as the first major support. Sideways Action: There’s also the chance that SPY could consolidate in the $552 - $564 range before making a decisive move in either direction. This would create a buildup of momentum before the next big breakout or breakdown. Final Thoughts: We’re at a critical juncture. If the bulls can push through $564, we might see a continuation of the larger uptrend. However, resistance here has been strong, so I’ll be watching closely for either a breakout or a rejection at this level. Stay cautious and watch for clear confirmation before making your move.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
$SPY Ranges Playing Out Perfectly - Expectations for 9/13/24For tomorrow - Above $559.60 -> $562 could be hit on AMEX:SPY There is significant resistance at $559.60, so it could be a reversal point to watch for a bearish trade back down through the channel. We have trend support that has become resistance at $562, which will be a mountain to climb and I don't expect that to happen tomorrow. Today's Recap - We did great trading the bullish breakout on $556C for 100%+ (overall). We caught the wick down on entry one, then the breakout entry on entry two. Map out your pivot points, trade smart, and execute within your plan! We will be going LIVE at 2:30 on our private community stream to discuss the week in review, map out some trades, and set ourselves up for clear profitability into next week!
AMEX:SPYLong
by PennyBois
Markets Finding Equilibrium Before FOMCAll major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff. Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again Sep 3-6 and after. I hope you enjoy today's video. Friday's close for the day and week will be important and perhaps it's all quiet on the western front heading into FOMC next week where price can be excitable and volatile, but we'll do our best to navigate everything. Thanks for watching!!! See you in the markets.
AMEX:XLRE
by ChrisPulver
1
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again. current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs key levels: 5400 -5650 bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : GOLD Breakout WINNERGetting through my morning with phone calls and coding - I took a break to check on the markets and what did I see? A huge breakout rally in GOLD. This huge move higher (+$40) is a massive win for those who followed my Plan You Trade Videos. I've been saying any price move above $2565-$2575 would be a gift and traders should attempt to BOOK PROFITS as Gold moves above these levels. I warned not to hold positions above $2585-2593. In fact, I'm expecting a bit of a metals flash-crash event to take place near mid-October. But, today is a winner day for gold traders. A HUGE WINNER day. I'm so happy to hear from all of you about your success with my Plan Your Trade videos. This is what it is all about - help you become a more skilled trader. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-12 : BreakAway PatternMuch like yesterday's pattern, today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I believe today's price move will be more muted than yesterday's big rally off the 540 lows. Combining the 830 jobs data with price expectations is difficult. I believe jobs data will be relatively soft, and traders will interpret that as the Fed may decrease rates before the end of this year. But I believe traders will be wrong, and the markets will flatten out this afternoon (after some morning volatility). Ultimately, the Fed is very confident that it will leave rates where they are unless something breaks. And because of that, I believe traders are trying to WISH the Fed into making a move. Because of this dynamic, I believe hedge assets will continue to melt upward and we will move into a fairly consolidated price period between now and the Nov 5 election. Overall, I believe most of today's price action will take place before Noon ET. Buckle up and prepare to take the afternoon off if my research is correct. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
SPY breaks key resistance with momentumAfter the cpi report SPY went from selling off dramatically in the morning to turning around rallying with strong momentum and volume. CPI report brought a lot of volatility to the market today SPY started selling then turned around quickly to break resistance We note the increasing volume as the rally continues The final period did end with rather undecided candle giving a sense of pause to direction it may go tomorrow The strong volume on final period does indicate price exhaustion, we may experience pull back tomorrow. Multiple down beaten stocks from previous sell off trend are now experiencing a massive rally breaking their trend and reversing to the upside.
AMEX:SPY
by ratchet-mint
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-11 : Inside BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open within yesterday's price range and attempt to "break away" from yesterday's range. I still believe we are moving into a secondary Excess Phase Peak pattern (flagging higher), which will prompt the SPY to attempt to rally to near 560. Because of this, I'm expecting a continued upward push toward the 558-560 area before it stalls and tops out. I suggest traders prepare for a lot of morning volatility today in early trading, followed by a strong push into higher price trending (upward) as today's BreakAway plays out. Gold and Silver are making a decent move higher - as I suggested. Remember, Gold and Silver will peak out within the next 4~5 days and will likely reach a sudden peak/top after Sept 20th, resulting in a quick, deep-V type collapse. I expect metals to move into that Deep-V base/bottom before October 11~14 (roughly). The US markets and Metals will suddenly flash-crash as we move closer to the US elections. This move will likely be news or event-related. But I feel it is inevitable at this point. Bitcoin will likely follow gold/silver and move into a moderate flash crash mode nearly simultaneously as metals. Get ready. This flash crash trend should be a great opportunity for skilled traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY Daily Chart Analysis: Trendline Support Holding with LevelsLooking at this SPY daily chart, I’m seeing some promising signs for a potential bullish reversal. Here’s what I’m focusing on: Key Levels: Support at $542: The price recently bounced off a significant support zone around $542, which also aligns with a long-term upward trendline that has held multiple times in the past (marked by the orange circles). This suggests strong buyer interest in this area. Resistance at $564.78: If the bullish momentum continues, the first significant target is around the $564.78 resistance. This has been a major resistance area previously and would be the next hurdle for the bulls. What I Expect: Potential Bounce: Given the bounce off the trendline and support zone, I expect SPY to test the $548 - $550 region next. A successful break above this could lead to a move towards $564.78. Trendline Strength: The upward trendline has held multiple times, as shown by the previous touches, indicating that buyers continue to defend this level. If we stay above this line, the bullish case strengthens. Final Thoughts: The chart is indicating that SPY could be gearing up for a bounce, especially if it holds above the $542 support. I’ll be closely watching how the price reacts around $548 and whether it can break higher toward $564.78. If the trendline continues to hold, we may see a continuation of the broader uptrend.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
$CSLR Looks to be a “W” Bottom FormationI have posted about NASDAQ:CSLR before (link below). Just based on technical signals it looks like this one may be ready to pump up to around $2.40 a share. From yesterday’s close of $1.78 that is a $0.62 move or 34.8%. That is the initial target price. If all goes as planned by the company this has the chance of being a $6 or $7 stock in the next 12 to 24 months. There are fundamental reasons for this pattern: 1. This is a turnaround story. They themselves were rescued from the hands of bankruptcy last April by T. J. Rogers, Cypress Semiconductor Founder and Billionaire and spearheaded a turnaround of NASDAQ:ENPH and early backer of SunPower. 2. As luck would have it, SunPower CAPITALCOM:SPWR is now headed to bankruptcy and NASDAQ:CSLR is the stocking horse bidder to acquire their best assets. 3. As of yesterday, Sept 9, 2024, they have secured the $40mm needed to fund the assets of SunPower. But, getting back to the technical, when measuring how far one might expect the stock to rise here, you take the price of the first bottom to the middle top then add that price to the middle top. See chart for more details. This is a low float stock for now and price can and will jump around. I have been up over 60% on my shares and down as much as 20% since I started positions back on May 7, 2024 (I have added 5 times since then and have a good sized position overall). Keep that in mind if you think this is one you want to participate in. They are not yet out of the woods but they do have big investors that are taking this chance too. As always, these are my ideas, and this one has greater risk than most. A traditional stop loss is not recommended but you should have one. If I were just getting involved mine would be around the 50 DMA (Red). Ideas, NOT INVESTING ADVICE.
NASDAQ:CSLRLong
by jaxdog
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Sept 10 : Consolidation CarryoverToday will likely be similar to yesterday - but slightly more consolidated overall. I belive the markets are struggling into a dual Excess Phase Peak Flag (Step #2) and the SPY/QQQ show this very clearly. This dual Excess Phase Peak pattern will result in either a breakdown in price (starting after Sept 20th or so) or a continued rally phase breaching the Unique & Ultimate Fibonacci High price levels. Ultimately, I believe the breakdown potential is higher at this point than the continued rally phase. That is why I'm asking traders to prepare for a top near Sept 20-25 and to move assets into CASH as we melt upward over the next 5+ days. If my research is correct, the second Excess Phase Peak pattern will prompt a breakdown in price - resulting in an attempt to find support above recent (60-90 day) lows. And that will reflect a -9-14% drawdown in price. If I'm wrong and we don't see this breakdown in price, then we'll see price struggle to move higher and eventually break the recent ATH levels. Watch this video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak patterns setup. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
SPX500 H4 | Overlap resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,520.41 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,580.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 5,388.72 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
$SPY Weekly Options | Bull or Bear? We got both covered!AMEX:SPY We are seeing a clear technical pullback, but nothing trend breaking. 21EMA on the weekly is our guide. We are watching $550 as our pivot this week for our options contracts. For these contracts, we will be using the 15 or 30 minute chart and candle closes for confirmation. $555 Call 9/27 Entry: 30 minute close OVER $550 Targets: $555, $559.58 Stop-loss: 15 or 30 minute close UNDER $550 $545 PUT 9/27 Entry: Break above $550, 30 minute close UNDER Targets: $545, $540 Stop-loss: 15 or 30 minute close OVER $550
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois