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2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is valid so far. Big red box is the open bear gap on the daily chart. 5500 would be a very good place for the bears to step in and make it resistance. I expect 5462 to be tested tomorrow and hopefully 5400 also. Odds favor the bears as long as we stay below 5540. current market cycle: trading range - if we drop below 5390, we are in a bear trend inside the big trading range. key levels: 5400 -5540 bull case: Bulls had a decent pullback today but it was still an inside bar. They need follow through and prices above 5540 to make more bears cover their shorts. Bulls had 3 good legs up today but bears were equally strong. Most of the move upwards was during the Globex session. Until bulls break strongly above 5500, they don’t have many arguments on their side. Invalidation is below 5460. bear case: Bears sold the rips today and kept the market mostly in balance around the open price 5462. They need to step in to keep the market below the current bear trend line and the 4h ema. Since we have formed a triangle, market is in balance between 5450-5500. The higher time frames support the bears for a second leg down. For tomorrow I expect the triangle to continue some more until we get a breakout and odds favor the bears. I think 5500 is a decent place to short with SL 5540 or 5560. Invalidation is above 5540. short term: Bearish as long as we stay below 5540. I want at least a retest of the lows 5400 but I hope for a bigger second leg down to 5000/5100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Not yet. Will watch tomorrow’s price action and short on weakness. trade of the day: Longing 5450 was good all day and shorting above 5480. Looks way easier on the 15m tf than it was. Almost always is.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for Sept 9 : GapUp-Higher Counter TrendPay special attention to this video and prepare for what I believe will be a type of Flash-Crash event starting near Sept 20-24. Now is the time to start moving more capital into CASH. Prepare for this potential downside price move of -9-14% by protecting your capital. Yes. There will be bigger opportunities near the bottom of this moderate Flash-crash event. No, you don't want to watch your assets fall 10-15% over the next 60 days. The solution is to move into a more protective allocation mode (70~80% CASH) over the next 5 to 7 days and then ride it out. Remember, I'm here to try to help you become a better trader. I tell you want I see and I live or die by my output. I'm not always 100% accurate. But I do believe the markets are going to move into a type fo Flash-Crash event over the next 45+ days and I believe the best way to prepare for this event is to load up on dry powder, trade smaller amounts for now, then look for opportunities near the bottom. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024. Quote from last week: comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows. Invalidation is below 5390. bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out. Invalidation is above 5540. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. → Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday. short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
SPYLOVERS ! The Pullback is here ! What to do next.... Good morning everyone and welcome to another weekend session. For those following the SPY, we can see that the institutional rejection did indeed occur with a double top, and it was unable to break the Al Time High (ATH), leading to a pullback that we had already predicted weeks ago. The question is: How far will the pullback go? I have two levels: a liquidation zone limit and a historical demand zone. Warning: DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE ! The idea here is to let the price do what it needs to with this drop. Once it reaches one of these two zones, we will start to see bullish volumetric candles indicating the beginning of an upward trend. For now, this analysis has been unfolding as we have been forecasting the movement. Let the price fall, and be very alert to determine whether this is just a small pullback or a longer one. We already know where the price will likely land. Sending greetings and thank you for supporting my study.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111
SPY My Opinion! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the SPY next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 540.43 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 552.17 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
1
Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. During 1920s - 1930s we experienced a "pandemic event" in both scenarios *odd*. It created a shock crash followed by a pandemic rebound that the masses called "bubble" this is where valuations broke due to a black swan event. We use the SMA 2D (200) that shows the larger trend of the market and we see similarities of this "bubble" crash bounce in 1922-1924, oddly similar to 2022-2024 right?. What's even more dangerous about today is the market in the roaring 20s was held back by the Gold dollar peg, today? we don't even have that. We just have interest rates. Following the 1924 situation the New York FED cut funding rates to avoid a "unemployment crisis" and it began the fueling of the final stage of a major bubble. Differences? during the pandemic in the 2020s Governments forced central banks to print trillions and trillions and enforce lock downs to stop the circulation of the currency. Following this they then raised interest rates globally sucking capital back into "bills" "Money Market Funds". What happens next?, the FRED will cut interest rates aggressively to avoid unemployment spiking trying to front run the future and in return these rates being lowered will rally bonds and release capital and new leverage back onto the market based on the debasement of QE we experienced. Yes the QE during the pandemic barely touched the markets where people were calling 2022 a "bubble". SPX/USM2 has broken out of a major trend while the FRED aggressively raised interest rates indicating this new "trend" cannot be contained without raising rates higher and its impossible to do so with the Government debt interest. A new bubble fueled by "Artificial Intelligence, Bitcoin, Electric Cars, Robotics, Biotechnology" could be rivalling the "automobile, radio, and electricity" fuel of the 1920s. The big question is does it end in a giant crash without a depression? and the answer will ultimately be how well the leveraged is contained in the later stages of the market.
TVC:DJILong
by SatoshiInsight
DIA $392 PT Sep '24 (Repost)Reposting my DIA $392 target price for September (my previous chart was too messy). It's been in a very consistent channel all of 2024. This means SPY should continue lower towards the $500 level through this week. We will need to see DIA hold the $392 level and SPY to stay above $500, which I think is very likely the case as we go into rate cuts 9/18. The rate cut on 9/18 will very likely add much needed boost to equities to go back to highs before a full on market crash.
AMEX:DIAShort
by ARX713
US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week. 10 year average for September is -.9% 70 year average for September is -.7% We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment). This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year. Long-term investors the game is simple Short-term investors are all over the place Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly. Enjoy the weekend!!!
NASDAQ:TLT
by ChrisPulver
3
SPY 30-Minute Chart Analysis: Bearish Channel FormingLooking at the SPY 30-minute chart, the price is clearly in a bearish channel, with each rally getting rejected and lower lows being made consistently. Let me walk you through the key details. What’s Happening: Downward Channel: The price is following a downward-sloping channel, which began forming at the peak near $563. Since then, the price has been steadily declining, with lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off the upper and lower trendlines. Resistance at $546.70: There was a strong rejection from the $546.70 level, further confirming this area as a key resistance. Every time the price approaches this level, sellers step in aggressively. Key Support at $539.60: We’re currently hovering just above this level. If we break through $539.60, the next key support zone lies around $528.44, which could be the next target for sellers. What I Expect: Bearish Continuation: Given the strength of the downward channel, I’m expecting more downside. If $539.60 fails to hold, we could see a further drop towards the $528.44 level. Possible Bounce: On the other hand, if the price finds support around $539.60, we might see a short-term bounce back toward the upper trendline, around $546.70, before more selling pressure sets in. Final Thoughts: Right now, SPY is clearly in a downtrend, and I’m watching the $539.60 level closely. A break below it could open the door for further declines, but a bounce from here could present a short-term trading opportunity. Stay cautious as the bearish momentum continues!
AMEX:SPY
by Deno_Trading
E.L.E.2Just another day at the office... Plotting the SPX median line shows something quite ordinary. No problem is apparent. All is well in the financial markets. Classic candle charts hide the truth, as I have many times explained. SPX now prints a bear 2M bar on the 3-line-break chart. This simply means that a bearish engulfing has taken place on a significantly large timeframe. These things come up rarely. They must not be ignored. ... Extinction Level Event 2 On the main chart we see a massive RSI divergence taking shape. Coupled with a massive bearish engulfing, fear is beginning to hit. Too much has accumulated in Big Tech. (Notice the bull confirmation) SPX Democracy is at a multi-year low. The XLK vs SPY ratio has reached the 2000 levels. (Notice the bear confirmation) The .com bubble burst is coming again. No big stock is safe from this event... MSFT META There is really no point showing more. If you get it, you get it. Mayday Mayday Mayday Brace for impact
SP:SPX
by akikostas
SPY 5-Minute Chart Analysis Targeting Opening Range BreakoutLooking at the SPY 5-minute chart, we’re seeing some clear bearish signals after what seemed like a potential recovery. Let me walk you through the main things that stand out. What I’m Seeing: Resistance at $554.41: The price reached a high of $554.41 but failed to hold, showing clear rejection at this level. This resistance has become a key point, as each attempt to break above it has been met with selling pressure. Drop to $541.77: We’re now seeing a sharp decline, with the price currently sitting around $541.77. This steep drop indicates that the sellers have firmly taken control. Failed Support at $548: Earlier, $548 was providing some support, but once that level broke, it led to a cascade of selling down to the $541 - $542 zone. What I Expect: Further Downside: Given the current momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised if we test the $540.97 level soon. If this level breaks, we could see a deeper drop, potentially targeting the $540 psychological level or even lower. Potential Bounce: If buyers step in around this $541 zone, we might see a short-term bounce. But unless we reclaim $548, I’m not convinced that a reversal is coming. My Takeaway: Right now, the price action is heavily favouring the bears. The failed break above $554 and the sharp drop tell me to stay cautious. If I were trading, I’d lean towards short positions unless we see a strong reversal above $548. Let’s see how it unfolds!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Deno_Trading
YENOCALYPSE. TO BE CONTINUE...The yen has posted several outsized moves in recent days, appreciating sharply on Thursday and Friday from 38-year lows of 161.96 per dollar, sudden rallies that market participants said had the signs of currency intervention. Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday suggested Tokyo may have spent 2.14 trillion yen ($13.5 billion) intervening on Friday. Combined with the estimated amount spent on Thursday, Japan is suspected to have bought nearly 6 trillion yen via intervention last week. In technical terms, USDJPY Fx pair has broken its major Bullish 7-months trend. What is next? I think retrace is possible.. But just to deliver much more to 152nd ground. // Mega stocks are in ruins..
by PandorraResearch
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-6 : Blended Top/Flat-DownHappy Friday. I believe today's pattern is a blend of yesterday's Top-Resistance and today's Flat-Down pattern. Because of this belief, I think we will see a moderate rally in early trading leading to a peak in price, then followed by a moderate flat-down type of price trend. This week has proven to be a bit more volatile than I expected, but it has not changed my expectations much in terms of where I believe the markets are headed over the next 90+ days. Price is dynamic and reflects not only fundamental economic expectations but also future performance expectations. This pullback in price is somewhat healthy (closing the gap) on the SPY chart to clear the way for further upward trending. Let's see how things play out today. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY recent rally failed to make new highsLooking back at the last two major rallies we see that the latest one has not broken above to new highs. Raises concerns of longer term rallies less likely to happen SPY is forming double top reversal pattern Longer term future rallies called into question More defensive sectors are experiencing rallies over the past year (XLU for example) Defensive sector long term rallies shows rotational shift from risk assets (tech) to safer assets (utilities, healthcare, gold) Seeing signs of late cycle investing 2025 could be a rough year for SPY and especially tech Bullish purchases should be done with caution
AMEX:SPYShort
by ratchet-mint
Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
1