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[S&P500] 2008-Style Collapse in MotionI believe we are witnessing the early stages of a 2008-style crash, though this one will unfold more swiftly and catch many by surprise. The crash will likely test the COVID-era lows, and once the panic subsides, a recovery toward new highs will follow. FUNDAMENTAL REASONS After the COVID-crash recovery, the market became significantly overbought, and a pullback was inevitable—such is the nature of markets. Trump’s tariffs have provided a convenient excuse for profit-taking. While the tariffs didn’t directly cause the crash, they served as a much-needed catalyst. What might have been a typical bull market pullback, however, could escalate into full-blown panic. Why? Index funds. For the past decade, there has been near-religious advocacy for investing solely in low-cost index funds. This extraordinary delusion has overtaken investors’ collective consciousness—the belief that no one can beat the S&P 500, nor should they try. The most rational choice, then, becomes focusing on your career or business and parking your money in index funds. After all, if the game can’t be beaten, why bother playing? This logic resonates with rational index fund buyers—many of whom lack market experience and have never been tested in the trenches of a downturn. They assume they’re in it for the long haul, unbothered by pullbacks, confident they can hold through volatility. It’s a sound and logical stance. But will they hold? It’s easy to stay committed when the market is rising. When losses mount, however, the limbic system overrides rational thought, thrusting you into survival mode. You begin calculating how many years of work you’ve “lost,” lamenting that you could have bought a house if you’d sold at the peak, or watching your children’s college fund evaporate. Sleepless nights follow, compounded by a barrage of negative news. Eventually, exhaustion sets in, and in a desperate bid to salvage what remains, you hit the sell button. With so many unsophisticated investors—who have never endured a true market panic—holding portfolios dominated by index funds, a negative feedback loop emerges. The further the market falls, the more people question their strategy and sell. This cycle intensifies until the panic is overdone, weak hands are shaken out, and the market stabilizes. It’s a tale as old as markets themselves, though today’s index fund evangelists have yet to experience it firsthand. TECHNICAL REASONS On the monthly chart, a clear and potent triple RSI divergence stands out. This indicates the market is severely overbought and has been struggling to make new highs. While technical analysis rarely delivers definitive signals and can often be ambiguous, a triple RSI divergence on a monthly chart is as strong as it gets. Monthly charts of high-market-cap indices are immune to manipulation and short-term noise—it would take an infinite amount of capital to artificially “draw” such a pattern. The 2021-2022 pullback was an Elliott Wave impulsive wave down (a Leading Diagonal). In Elliott Wave Theory, impulsive waves mark either the final leg of a correction or the first wave of a new trend. A Leading Diagonal almost always signals the latter—meaning another impulsive wave in the same direction is likely to follow. The 2022-2025 bull market, meanwhile, has proven to be an ABC corrective wave up within the broader trend. This suggests the bull run wasn’t a continuation of the prior uptrend but rather an extended correction that pushed to new highs. Thus, the leading diagonal down foreshadows another impulsive wave lower, and the corrective wave up confirms this trajectory. Since March 2025, the market has entered free-fall mode—precisely what one would expect following an upward corrective wave. This sets the stage for a high-probability Elliott Wave Expanding Flat pattern. What’s unfolding now is an impulsive wave down that should, at minimum, retest the 2022 low. If panic takes hold, however, the decline won’t find a floor until it hits a major support level—namely, the 200-month moving average (MA200 Monthly), which sits precisely at the COVID bottom. Should that occur, the magnitude of the drop would rival the 2008 crash.
SP:SPXShort
by berightandsittight
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-8 : Absolute PerfectionThank you. Thank you to all of you who follow my videos and believe in my research. The last few days/weeks have been absolutely incredible. My SPY Cycle Patterns, on average, are about 70-80% accurate over a 12-month span of time. There are things, like news and big events (elections, outside forces, big news) that can disrupt any market trend and completely invalidate my SPY Cycle Patterns. But, when the markets are generally left to their own accord, the SPY Cycle Patterns play out almost perfectly. Yes, traders need to learn to adopt a PLAN A vs. PLAN B mentality with my SPY Cycle Patterns. If Brad is right - this will happen. And if Brad is wrong, the opposite will likely happen. But, the comments I've been receiving over the past 20+ days have been incredible. Thank you. Knowing that I'm reaching a larger group of people now (than when I started doing these videos about a year ago) and knowing that some of you are really seeing some BIG GAINS following my research is simply incredible. I started doing these videos to prove my research and tools were incredible solutions for traders. But, at the same time, I started doing this to combat some of the scammers that are out there. In my world, watching people (or hearing from them) after they've been scammed a couple of times is heartbreaking. Most people put a lot of time and effort into trying to become skilled traders. I get it. That's why I'm doing this - to show you the right path and to show you that price is the ultimate indicator. Again, thank you from the bottom of my heart. Keep sending me those success stories and... GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
19
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 4-8 : Counter Trend Bottom/RallyThis video was created to help you better understand why it is important to WAIT for the SPY Cycle Patterns to setup efficiently. It is critically important that all of you learn the three basic rules of trading. 1. Never try to force a position/trade. If your research tells you some type of price event/trend is likely - don't jump into the trade too early. Wait for confirmation and wait for price to confirm your analysis is correct. 2. Start with a small position. Never GO BIG on your initial trade. If you are wrong, you can manage the trade with a small win/loss. If price moves in the direction you expect, you can add more once you get confirmation the trend will continue (potentially). 3. BOOK PROFITS early and keep BOOKING PROFITS as the trend continues higher. You can always get back into the trade with CALL/PUT options - but if you don't learn to BOOK PROFITS EARLY (20-30% profits in the trade), then you'll very likely FAIL to build your account efficiently. (Trust me, #3 is VERY IMPORTANT) Beyond these three simple concepts, one of the most important aspects of trading with my SPY cycle patterns is to learn to WAIT for the pattern to setup efficiently. Today is a great example. The BOTTOM/Rally Start pattern was in Counter-trend mode. Thus, I expected it to be INVERTED - turning it into a TOP/Selloff Start pattern. In order for that pattern to play out, we needed to see the markets open higher (and potential trend higher for a bit of time), then roll over into a top pattern. After that tops pattern setup, the markets should continue to move into a moderate selloff trend (downward). Think about it. Were you smart trying to SELL INTO the rally this morning or were you smart to wait for the ROLLOVER and sell into the breakdown trend? IMO, smart traders waited for the top to setup/confirm and started selling as we got into the breakdown trend phase. Again, I'm trying to help you learn to become a better trader. I hope this video helps. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
13
SPY S&P 500 ETF Potential W-Shaped Recovery Forming We may be witnessing the formation of a W-shaped recovery on the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – a classic double-bottom structure that often signals a strong reversal after a period of correction or volatility. Let’s dive into the technicals and what this could mean in the sessions ahead. 🔍 The Technical Setup: SPY recently tested key support around the $485-$500 zone, bouncing off that area twice in the past few weeks. This gives us the left leg of the W and the first bottom. After a modest relief rally to ~$520, we saw another pullback – but this second dip failed to break below the first bottom, a hallmark of the W-pattern. As of today, SPY is starting to reclaim ground toward the $517-$520 resistance zone. If bulls can push through this neckline area, especially with volume confirmation, we could see a breakout that targets the $530-$535 area in the short term. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: Support: $490-$500 (double-bottom support zone) Neckline/Resistance: $530 Breakout Target: $550 (previous highs) Invalidation: A break below $490 with volume could invalidate the W-recovery idea and shift bias bearish. 📊 Momentum & Volume: RSI is climbing back above the 50 level – bullish momentum building. MACD shows a potential crossover forming, hinting at a shift in trend. Watch for increasing buy volume as SPY approaches the neckline – that’s where the bulls will need to step up. 🧠 Macro & Earnings Angle: Don’t forget – we’re entering a heavy earnings season and rate cut expectations are still a wildcard. A dovish tone from the Fed and strong corporate results could be the fuel that sends SPY higher to complete this W-shaped recovery. 🧭 Final Thoughts: This is a high-probability setup if neckline resistance is broken cleanly. Wait for confirmation before going heavy – fakeouts are common in double-bottom scenarios. If we do get the breakout, we may be looking at a broader market rebound going into summer. 🔔 Set alerts near $525. A confirmed breakout could mean the bulls are back in charge.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4/8 : Bottom/Rally Start - CounterFirst off, today's pattern is in a COUNTER TREND mode. Think of that as the pattern being INVERTED to the current price trend. Next, the Bottom/Rally Start pattern is usually a base/bottom type of pattern that prompts a fairly strong bullish/rally phase in price. This time, because it is inverted (in Counter-trend mode) and is forming within the broad consolidation phase of the current EPP pattern, I believe this Bottom/Rally Start pattern will really be a Top/Selloff start type of pattern. Where price will find resistance in early trading, form a rollover top, and start to move back downward towards the 500-505 level on the SPY. I don't believe this downward price move will attempt to break below 480-485 today. I believe today's move will be a moderate pullback in the trend. Although any BIG news could disrupt the current support near $480, so be aware that any big news event could crush the markets (again) and send the SPY trying to retest the $480 support level. Gold and Silver appear to be basing - perfect. I'm watching for Metals to really start to reflect the FEAR in the markets and rally above $3200 (Gold)/$39 (Silver). BTCUSD appears trapped in the breakdown stage of the current EPP Consolidation phase and the new CRADLE pattern. No matter how I try to identify if I'm wrong with BTCUSD, I keep seeing the breakdown as the more dominant trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
13
$SPY short term top downside from $521 to $481AMEX:SPY is looking like it put in a short term top here. I originally only thought that we had the potential to fall to $545 or so, but now looking at the chart, I think we have the possibility of falling farther. The two targets that I'm looking for on the downside are $524.35 and 481.18. Let's see if they get hit over the coming weeks. If they hit, it'll be the ultimate buying opp as I think from there, we're likely to see SPY over $700 in the coming year or two.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
3
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 8, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Release: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release its Small Business Optimism Index for March at 6:00 AM ET. This index provides insights into the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the U.S. economy. 🗣️ Federal Reserve Speeches: ​San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak at 8:00 AM ET. ​ ​Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver remarks at 7:00 PM ET. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00 AM ET): Forecast: 100.7​ Previous: 102.8​ Assesses the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the economy. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
S&P500 vs Unemployment vs Yield CurveI'd be surprised if that was the bottom in equities. 10yr/2yr is still coming out of inversion which historically is followed by a recession and a decline in equities, and we have unemployment remaining stubbornly low with only one direction to go from current levels. Market selloffs usually mean investors lose money while main street loses jobs so we should start to see the unemployment rate begin to rise from here assuming that the tariff war isn't over. Trump proved today that he has no intention of relenting on the new tariffs; when China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods, he immediately hit them with 50% tariffs. Not sure which side will cave first, but as long as there is uncertainty around US/China trade the risk for further declines in equities remains. The previous two times the yield curve inverted, we saw 50%+ declines in equities and rising unemployment when the curve came out of inversion. There was also a short-lived inversion in 2019 with a spike in unemployment and falling equity prices due to Covid, but the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to 0% and printing trillions of dollars kept that bear market short and sweet. We currently have a Federal Reserve that needs higher rates to fight inflation while at the same time we have a president who wants lower rates to stimulate growth. Catch-22 for the Fed: if they lower rates, they risk reigniting inflation. If they raise rates or keep them flat during a market decline it will speed up the decline in equities. Trump knows this which is why I don't think that the tariff war and market decline are over.
SP:SPXShort
by PrepForProfit
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Review : POP PatternToday's pattern played out perfectly. I'm really amazed that the SPY rallied up to my resistance level ($520-525) and stalled/bottomed exactly near my $480 support. Absolutely PERFECT reflection of the data I presented this morning and from my research over the weekend. Now, if my analysis is correct, we move into a sideways consolidation pattern for the next 3+ weeks where price will attempt to establish a range (moving slightly downward in trend) before we get to the late-June breakdown (setting up the July 2025 low), then another big breakdown in October 2025. I can't tell you how pleased I am with the comments and messages I get every day. Some of you are KILLING IT and I'm so happy to be able to help. Remember, we are all trying to find the best way to profit from these market trends. So remember to share your success with others and let them know how to find the best tools for trading (on TradingView). Now, let's get busy trying to get ready for the next phase of this market trend (which will come in June). I'll keep you updated. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
19
Bitcoin Retests 77k Neckline Support! This is huge!Traders, As we watch the tariff FUD destroy traders everywhere, I want you to be aware that we have just landed on something extremely critical for support, the neckline of our long-standing CUP and HANDLE that began forming at the end of 2021. The neckline currently stands at an approximate price of 76-77k. If you'll remember in my last post a couple of days ago regarding the SPY, I suggested that SPY could drop as low as 467 and Bitcoin could hit 76k. Bitcoin has arrived at it's 76k support and if this doesn't hold, crypto is in serious trouble. I am not trying to be an alarmist here. You all know that I am an eternal optimist when it comes to crypto, but in this case we have to prepare our trades accordingly. The break of 76k support could send Bitcoin and crypto down as far at 50k. I know this is hard to believe. Even as I am typing this I am having a hard time grasping that we'd get there, but this is what I am seeing and I have to inform you all accordingly. If we're lucky, that neckline holds. But plan accordingly. ✌️Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-7 : POP In Counter Trend ModeToday's POP pattern in Counter Trend mode suggests the markets will find support and attempt to POP upward a bit. I expect the SPY to attempt to reach levels above 505 today. Possibly trying to peak near 510. The same thing will happen with the QQQ - a potential rally (POP) higher targeting the 420-425 level. Watch this video TWICE if you really want to understand what is taking place in the markets right now. The tariff issue will settle over the next 15+ days. The SPY/QQQ are moving into the EPP Consolidation Phase (just like I've been telling you for months now). BTCUSD is moving into a BREAKDOWN phase and will likely target $63k over the next 30+ days. Gold and Silver reacted to the breakdown of the SPY/QQQ as they always do - PANIC SELLING. Now that the panic selling pressure appears to be subsiding, Gold and Silver should build a base and begin an explosive move higher - targeting $4200-4500 for gold and targeting $41-44 for silver. We live in exciting times and I still believe the US markets will DOUBLE or TRIPLE over the next 5-10+ years. Get Some.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
13
Some stocks do +1,650% verticals while the rest of market dropsNot all stocks follow overall market direction, just 80% of them. NASDAQ:AREB wasn't one of them. We focus on the other 20% which are having massive verticals no matter the overall market or economy situation. TOTAL Week: +121.4% realized profit from alerts posted in chat 💯 To good to be true? Been doing it for 20+ years. When should one beat the market with perfected strategy if not after 2 decades and nearly 100k hours invested? Ever heard of 10,000 hours invested to master something. Then what does 100k make you? Master Jedi? Sure feels like it if your 2 stocks are doing +70% +300% in a day while the world is crashing 🤷🏻‍♂️ All fully verified with timestamps, feel free to check and verify.
NASDAQ:AREB
by ProfitTradeRoom
Using Put Options to Protect Your Stock PortfolioCME: Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last week’s bloodshed of global financial market made history. Nearly all major asset classes fell into a market turmoil driven by tariffs and retaliations. Let’s focus on the US stock market: • Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.76% in the week of March 31st to April 4th, making it the 4th worst weekly performance on record • S&P 500 slipped 8.77%, the 4th worst week in history • Nasdaq Composite fell 9.18%, the 2nd worst week • Russell gave up 9.34%, the 3rd worst week All four stock index futures were in negative territory year-to-date. On Sunday evening, E-Mini S&P 500 opened 178 points lower to 4,932, losing 17.1% YTD. All parties ultimately come to an end. After two years of double-digit gains, the unstoppable US stock market finally cracked. As more tariffs and retaliations are expected to escalate, I am afraid that we are only seeing the beginning, rather than the end. For stock investors, this is a good reminder of market risk, something we always talk about but seldomly pay attention to. The “return of investment” should be focusing on the repayment of your money, a safety issue. Only after that should we talk about the gain from the investment. It is a necessity to protect your portfolio to achieve long-term growth. Trading with Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures For investors with a diversified portfolio, Put Options on the E-Mini S&P 500 futures are effective and cost-efficient tools. Investors who long the stocks will lose money, should stock prices fall. Put options would gain in value, providing a hedge to the portfolio. The following illustration shows a hypothetical example, given: • An investor has a $250,000 portfolio holding a diversified pool of U.S. stocks • CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ) have a contract size of $50 times the index value • The June contract (ESM5) was quoting at 4,935 Sunday evening Friday, making the notional value of 1 contract $246,750, approximately equal to our portfolio value • Assuming the portfolio moves closely in line with the S&P 500 • The investor wants to limit the loss of his portfolio to 12%. If the S&P 500 index is currently around 4950, a put option with a strike price of 4350 would roughly correspond to a 12% decline Hedging trade illustration: • The investor buys 1 put option on the June futures with the strike price of 4,600 • CME quote on that Put option is 223. As the contract is $50 times the index, the premium upfront for one put option contract is $11,150 (223*$50), ignoring any commissions • The put premium is calculated as 4.46% of the $250K portfolio If S&P drops to 4,200 (-15.15%) by the end of April: • Without the put, the portfolio lost $37,879, assuming the same loss with the S&P • The 4600-strike put is now 400 points in-the-money • The investor sells the put and receives $20,000 (= 400 x 50) • The loss of portfolio will be 37879+11150-20000 = $29,029 • With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29029 / 250000), which is 3.5% lower than the S&P loss and with the preset loss limit If S&P drops to 4,000 (-19.2%) by the end of May: • Without the put, the portfolio lost $47,980, assuming the same loss with the S&P • The 4850-strike put is now 600 points in-the-money • The investor sells the put and receives $30,000 (= 600 x 50) • The loss of portfolio will be 47980+11150-30000 = $29,130 • With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29,130 / 250000) As we can see here, when the S&P falls sharply, the investor will be able to cap his loss to 11.6%. In a “protective put” strategy, we would consider the option premium an insurance contract for owning stocks. If the index rises, the portfolio return would be lowered a little because of the premium upfront, that is, the cost of insurance. However, the protection is a lifesaver if the index falls. Before jumping into action, the investor needs to run a correlation analysis using the daily value of the portfolio against the S&P 500 closing prices. Here is how: • Some trading software has correlation feature built in already • If not, pull 1-year daily portfolio balance and 1-year S&P closing prices, export them to Excel. Run correlation test with these two data series using Excel data analysis tool. • Alternatively, we could drop the data into ChatGPT and ask AI to do the work for us. If the correlation is greater than 50%, it means that S&P 500 is a good fit to hedge the portfolio. If it is not, we could try the correlation analysis using the other stock index closing prices, such as the Dow, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000. Then replace E-Mini S&P 500 futures with the stock index futures contract best fit the portfolio. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 7–11, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 New U.S. Tariffs Begin April 9: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — 10% on all imports, 25%+ on key sectors — could stir volatility. 🇨🇳📦 China Retaliates April 10: A 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods raises trade war fears and inflation concerns. 🏦💰 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock will report. Markets will watch closely for financial health signals. 📉📊 March CPI Report Coming April 10: Inflation data could sway the Fed’s rate path. Forecasts call for a 0.1% increase. ⚠️ Volatility Alert: Piper Sandler projects a possible 5.6% move in the S&P 500 this week — up or down. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 7: 🗣️ Fed Gov. Kugler Speaks (10:30 AM ET) 💳 Consumer Credit (3:00 PM ET) — Forecast: $15.5B | Prev: $18.1B 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Biz Optimism (6:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 100.7 🗣️ Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks (8:00 AM ET) 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.4% | Prev: 0.8% 🗣️ Fed’s Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET) 📝 FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET) 📅 Thursday, April 10: 📉 Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 219K 📊 CPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.1% | Prev: 0.2% 🗣️ Fed Gov. Bowman Testifies (10:00 AM ET) 📅 Friday, April 11: 🏭 PPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.2% | Prev: 0.0% 🗣️ Fed’s Musalem Speaks (10:00 AM ET) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao