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#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend. key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. → Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024. current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500. chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
7
SPY On The Rise! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 532.98 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 543.88 My Stop Loss - 526.43 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
4
$SPY Sharp Decline?! $503 Target, $493 possible 8/21, then $520Thats right folks. Your's truly with another quick thought on where I think we're headed, and FAST!! Assuming we repeat the First Half of 2022, I want to say that the next 10 days will produce a dump and a bounce. Do be careful if you're long this market. All signs point to a flash crash to $493 and then a mean bounce to retest $520. Don't forget, cash is a position. I like to keep things simple with my charts for the most part. ATM, I am looking at the 10D chart. I like the 10D chart because it has hidden divergences on RSI that prove extremely useful. As the days go on, it will get easier. Those that doubt will always learn the Hard way. Paytience will always prevail. After $520 bounce, I would assume a slow bleed to $480 into the election for a new low, followed by an Election Rally back to $530 before we come back crashing down. All of this will come with time and I'm writing it down so you can see my thought process. Everything takes time. Drop to $503-$494 Hard Bounce to $520 Slow Bleed to $480, Previous ATH Winter 22' Bounce to $530 for a Retest of Previous Support should we break. Good Luck out there
AMEX:SPYShort
by TazmanianTrader
Combined US Equities - D-Day +1on 31 July, heads up given about D-day. That was based simply of a few compelling technical factors observed. Outcome was that there was a blow out rally, followed by an awesome Dark Cloud Cover and then a confirmation bearish candle that gapped down and tanked the week to a low. The spike in volatility was just so awesome and it caught many off guard, unfortunately. Technical indicators were previously mentioned to be bearish already and now it is very evidently so. Projecting further using supports and TD Sequential, it is also evident that by breaking below the support that closes the gap too was so critical... it broke the TDST support as well. This means that the TD Sequential trend is now bearish, with an expected one bearish week to go. So all together... a significant technical breakdown. Some bounce expected, but week ahead looks bearish. Projected target marked (red ellipse). Take care!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
ALERT! Healthcare Stocks? $UNH 70% decline! Sub $200 possible. I've been watching and keeping this quiet for a while now and I am now extremely confident of this trade. NYSE:UNH headed for the dumps as technicals show signs of a 70% decline ahead in the next year. This is a developing trade and I do not have any news to support this drop however, I am certain. The Weekly is currently in a bear flag the same exaact way. After a huge run, UNH looks to be running out of steam. The RSI matches around 70 on the 10D timeframe and the MACD is also coming from a negative area into bullish territory, yet the bearish divergence is clear imo. I will be glady entering long puts up here. I will continuously update this trade. See you Next year. Use this chart as a reference to current chart.
NYSE:UNHShort
by TazmanianTrader
$SPY $537 Fair Value Gap fill incoming imoFVG sits below at $541.61-$536.89 ..... Current 6 count could prove bearish into the 7th count on 10D chart. Very interesting chart showing what would essentially be a Bearish Harami off this Inside Doji. The 10D candle starts tomorrow 7/23 and ends 8/7 so basicaally accumlate as many puts as possible between then and now. If we move above the Open on the Doji at $554.54, then we can start talking about bullish behavoir. For now though, the gap above at $566.7 was rejected and I will be looking for a downside move from here to $540 as previously noted in a recent session. Chao.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TazmanianTrader
2
VIX | Economic, Geopolitical, and Market DevelopmentsTVC:VIX Key Points: FOMC Decision: Rate Hold: The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, indicating caution due to persistent inflation​ (Home)​​ (Home)​. Market Volatility: VIX Surge : The VIX rose to 23.38, reflecting increased market fear and uncertainty driven by economic and geopolitical factors​ (Home)​. Japan's Economic Challenges: Policy Adjustments : The BOJ raised rates and ended yield curve control but maintained a relatively accommodative stance due to muted inflation​. GDP and Inflation : Japan's GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2024, and core inflation stood at 2.5% year-over-year​. Europe's Economic Landscape: ECB Rates : The ECB's interest rate is at 3.75%, with slow growth expected amid ongoing inflationary pressures​. Geopolitical Tensions: Iran-Israel Conflict : Escalating tensions impact global oil prices and market sentiment​ (Council on Foreign Relations)​. Russia-Ukraine War : The conflict continues to pose significant geopolitical risks, affecting global markets and humanitarian conditions​ (S&P Global)​. US-China Relations : Ongoing strategic competition and trade tensions shape global dynamics​ (EL PAÍS English)​. Cybersecurity Threats : Increasing frequency and severity of cyberattacks threaten national security and financial stability​ (S&P Global)​. Global Elections: 2024 Elections : Major elections in the US, UK, and EU contribute to geopolitical complexity, potentially reshaping policies and market responses​ (EY US)​. Summary: The global economic and geopolitical environment remains volatile. The FOMC's decision to hold rates reflects caution amid persistent inflation. Market volatility, indicated by the VIX surge, is driven by economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, and mixed corporate earnings. Japan faces economic challenges despite policy adjustments, while Europe contends with slow growth and inflation. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, alongside significant upcoming elections, add layers of complexity for investors and policymakers.
TVC:VIX
by shkspr
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade 8-2 - The Kamala-Crush ContinuesIt's been quite a while since I've seen -3%, -4%, or even -6% on my screens. These are HUGE price swings, and I'm still having trouble identifying why the global markets feel a major crisis has suddenly hit (unless it is all related to Kamala Harris). This update shows you why I believe the US markets must attempt to find support near this 50% pullback range. If we can't find support at the levels I highlight on this video - then all bets are off and we could enter a much deeper price correction. I'm still looking at the data, earnings, and other news. I see nothing that says CRASH. I see US companies preparing for a tough summer - but still making profits. I see the US moving into a hotly contested election. I see consumers still spending (moderately). I just don't see a CRASH event yet. So, I believe this is all a large panic move. More later. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPX 666The S&P has proven itself a safe haven over the years and will likely continue doing so. There are a ton of reasons why the markets should collapse, nonetheless here we are rallying into the sunset. Taking a step back on the logarithmic scale we can see the pattern clearly. We are in the midst of a 3rd wave up with plenty of room to run... but where to? Near term and long term targets below. Using the Fibonacci extension tool we can overlay a road map to the next destinations. No surprise there is a near perfect match. The Near Term Top The 2.618 level above at 4,500 is an area to pay attention to and is the current near term target. My strategy continues to be 'buy the dip' all the way up to these macro levels using the 1 hour chart with an RSI set to 10. However, 4,500 on the S&P does not look like the end of this cycle. The Long Term Top My long term call for the top is around 6,660. Not only is it sandwiched in between the last fib extensions. It is a historically significant pivot point. No, I'm not a conspiracy guy but I do think it's hilariously entertaining that the major pivot points all happen near 666 levels. Looks to me as if the market is flying towards 6,660 like a bat out of hell. Trading is risky. Don't do it. Live trades with entries and exits will be updated on the post linked below titled "S&P 5,000,000" Long: MES futures + a basket of other equities
SP:SPXLong
by trade-God
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-2 : Breakaway In Carryover ModeAs we have all experienced over the past 6+ days - outside news events can (and often do) disrupt my SPY Cycle Patterns. I've talked about the Kamala-Crush event (just 10+ days ago) that disrupted market trends after Biden stepped down from running for POTUS in 2024. I've talked about how capital would shift away from risks because of the sudden shift in expectations. I've talked about how this shifting capital would likely benefit the US market and what I call (major global economies) - where capital may rush into areas considered safer than most of the rest of the globe. Then, we saw a bloody attack on Israeli children turn the world upside down with the threat of an Israel/Iran conflict. We are now seeing Japan really become an issue with the BOJ attempting to manage risk factors related to their economy. In my opinion, the past 10+ days have been a series of minor crisis events (some a bit more major than minor) that have played out to disrupt the US/Global markets with huge volatility. We don't normally see 2.5 to 5.5% price swings - EVER. These types of price swings are MASSIVE. We are living through a disruption that may go down in history related to a global shift in expectations. But, at the same time, we've only seen the US markets fall 3.5% from the recent highs. Certainly not a CRASH event (yet). Honestly, I don't expect my SPY Cycle Pattern to play out very well today. I believe these outside factors are really driving price action and I've clearly tried to highlight that in this video. If & when the markets settle and move back into more normal types of price trending (away from outside factors driving price trend) - the SPY Cycle Patterns will likely fall back into a better predictive mode. As I stated, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not 100% accurate all the time. The past 10-15+ days have been very unusual (to say the least). We've seen a series of events that are really unprecedented (starting with the Kamale-Crush). Buckle up. Today could be a very interesting day if support holds. We may see the SPY attempt to rally back above $552-554 at some point. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Full Send Incoming - Through The Van Allen Radiation Belt We Go!Put on your oxygen masks ladies and gentlemen. The U.S. stock market is about to go ballistic. You all know from my daily chart, we nearly hit the target of my inverse head and shoulders pattern to the dollar. Target was 570. One of my recent posts indicated that I was selling half at 560, taking my profit, and parking it in cash. But now, I will take that cash and pack my bags again as the market is getting ready to blow minds. Literally, everyone is predicting a market crash soon. And that may happen. But not before a rocket launch to the moon that will rip faces off. Pack your bags and BTFD folks. Ticket sales will be on fire for this rocket ride.
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-1 : Where's the BaseRally301 PatternI know. I'm asking the same question. Today's move is not normal. The US markets don't move 1.5 to 3.5% on normal days. This is something bigger - outside the normal scope of market data. It could be the election conflict in Venezuela. It could be the US POTUS election news. It could be what appears to be a collapse in Asian markets. It could be that European markets fell hard today. It could be anything that is related to forward expectations for the US/Global markets. My data is still showing this is a DIP in a bullish trend (a BUY THE DIP opportunity). My data shows the following: - Europe & Asia are trending downward. - US is following Europe/Asia. - US-Dollar Demand (SPY BASE TREND) is flat - but still strong - Hedge Assets (Gold/Silver/BTCUSD) are holding up well in the face of this move. - The MRM system has not turned BEARISH yet (that's good). - Major Markets To Metals (hedge instruments) are much weaker. - The Volatility Index is at 15.51 (still above the <12 level for a bearish trend). - The Leading Index is lower (showing Volatility near a Flag Apex). - The Market Ratio index is higher (showing reflation strength). - The US to Global Index is still showing the US markets are stronger than the foreign markets. - The US Valuation Trend index is at 240 (reflating strongly compared to foreign markets). After watching the price trend all morning with my new MENT Pressure System (including the Fibonacci Price Theory model), I really do believe this is a FLUSH-OUT LOW setting up which will revert back into a bullish price trend (the Vortex Rally phase). Nothing seems broken to me (yet). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Alphabet & Tesla push All The Bigtech into Bearish MarchIndexes end lower as investors brace for major earnings results After the closing bell, Tesla and Alphabet released their second-quarter performance. Investors were especially attentive to the carmaker, looking to see if its performance has improved since the start of the year. Tesla was battered by a slew of headwinds in the first quarter, but investors have since grown bullish on the flagship EV manufacturer. The two firms are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks to release their earnings. Unfortunately they both did not deliver strength, so it breaks the momentum to the tech rally. Tesla shares fall nearly 9% in premarket trading after earnings miss Tesla shares dropped in premarket trading in the U.S. after the electric car maker reported second-quarter earnings that missed expectations, as its auto business continued to face pressure. Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company reported that automotive revenue declined 7% year on year in the June quarter to $19.9 billion, while its adjusted earnings margin also fell. Bulls and bears have been in a grapple over the stock, with some believing the company’s core car business is under pressure, while others held hope about a future Musk has promised around autonomous driving. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) shares fall nearly 4.5% in premarket trading after earnings report Alphabet earnings top estimates as cloud business gains steam, AI losses grow. Google parent Alphabet reported its fiscal second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines as its cloud businesses continue to pick up steam, topping the $1 billion mark for operating profit for the first time. For the quarter, the company saw earnings per share of $1.89 on revenue of $84.7 billion. Analysts were anticipating earnings per share of $1.85 on revenue of $84.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's a jump from the same period last year of 31% and 14%, respectively, when the company reported earnings per share of $1.44 on revenue of $74.6 billion. Advertising revenue topped $64.6 billion versus analysts' expectations of $64.5 billion, and up from $58.1 billion last year. YouTube ad revenue, however, fell short, with the segment bringing in $8.66 billion versus expectations of $8.95 billion. Technical thoughts What is next? Hmm.. I think more Bulls & Bears are to run. The main graph Nasdaq-100 Sept'24 Futures contract (NQU2024) indicates on strong Bearish Momentum. This is all because of 50-Day SMA breakthrough, as well as breakthrough of major 3Mo old upside channel.
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by PandorraResearch
4