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Combined US Indexes shows imminent troublesThe week earlier saw the combined index chart log a double top, where last week started to break down. By midweek, the gap (from the previous rally after a breakout) closed. The week ended with a gap reopening. On Friday, this would normally signal a reversal and a bullish reopening of the gap, but it looks a lot less likely given that the MACD is clearly downtrending, as well as the VolDiv confirming bearishness in more ways than one... going below zero line, etc. So, for what it is worth, the reopening is likely to be a flash in the pan, and once it makes a lower low next week, it would really let it go - DOWN
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-26 Base/Support Rally PatternThe markets are struggling to break away from the morning congestion. I, personally, want to see the SPY move above $550-551 (filling the gap) before I'm going to consider any potential upward trend. The past few days have been frustrating for me and my Cycle Patterns. The Kamala-Crush, as I call it, came out of nowhere and crushed the market trend. The SPY was holding up fairly well on Monday/Tuesday this week but was crushed on Wednesday - the Day of Biden's resignation and Kamala's take-over. I see this as traders/investors actively moving capital away from risks and profits. Now that we are nearing the end of the week, the dust will settle, and we'll move back to more normal types of trading/trending. In the next few weeks, SPY Cycle Patterns show moderate upside trending. It should be fun. Remember, stay focused on your objectives and learn to develop proper risk containment for your trading. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-26 - Top/Resistance Counter-TrendToday's Counter-trend pattern is a Top/Resistance pattern. This pattern usually reflects a price peak setup - rolling into a downward price trend. But it is in a Counter-trend formation today - so we should expect a base/bottom setup rolling into a bullish price trend. This video covers the SPY/QQQ/Gold, and I expect the "Kamala-Shakeout" may be nearly over in terms of market disruption (at least for now). I strongly believe this is a moderate price shakeout. Traders are reacting to the new Democratic nominee (Kamala Harris) and the sudden change in expectations related to the Presidential election outcome. I could be wrong, but it makes sense to me that this sudden change would be reflected throughout the global markets as a repositioning of capital (related to risks). Let's see if the markets can hold this base/bottom setup over the past 2 days. I really want to see the SPY above $550~551 to settle above my A/B level related to risks. A move back above $550-551 would indicate price has rejected the current downward swing. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 21st —>July 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/21/2024) **SPX**-Rotation into small caps and industrial stocks continue, which led to more sell off in SPX We have a lot of earnings coming up this week so that can shift the direction of the market as well. Next resistance $5655and $5688 Next support $5521 and 5428 Weekly Sentiment = Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- Looks like the dollar index found support as the euro weakens. Which means we could see further drop in SPX. Next resistance $105.90 Support $104 Sentiment = Crossover to upside **Put to call Ratio: 1.31 —> 1.15 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 56—>49**
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Is the market crashing? The SPY and IWM have completely diverged. On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names. A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off. The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below. Although this is typically bearish, we are getting into an area of oversold support. If the SPY gaps down tomorrow, I think traders will be buying the dip with both hands. The IWM has blasted above the 50MA, basically moving the exact opposite of the S&P500. The question remains....are small caps going to hold their gains inside of the weekly topping tail?
AMEX:IWM
by Trading-Capital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 EOD Wrap-up - Kamala-CrushThis is an End Of Day wrap-up related to the continued downward price trends the US markets are experiencing. As I continue to research why the US markets are contracting so suddenly, the only thing that makes sense to me is what I call the "Kamala-Factor." Suddenly, last weekend, Kamala Harris went from the sidelines to front-n-center. Monday, everyone talked about Kamala Harris as the new Dem candidate after Biden pulled out of the race. By Tuesday night, Kamala Harris had secured enough delegates for the Dem nomination. Wednesday morning - the markets CRASHED. Today, we saw a little bounce near support, but the markets continued to sell downward into the close. As far as I'm concerned, this is actually FEAR related to Kamala's policies, plans, and leadership. Traders/investors are suddenly moving capital away from sectors they believe could be at risk of a further collapse. This is the only reasonable response to the sudden collapse of the major US indexes—gold, Silver, Oil, Transportation Index, and others—while the VIX suddenly shot up to 18+. The short story Kamala Harris scares people, particularly investors/traders and large investment firms. As a result, they are moving capital away from risk factors before the US POTUS election. We need to see the US markets find support, or we could be in for a deeper market downturn. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: A trading range after a strong move is more often than not the final flag. Yesterday we formed a late trading range and bulls had a strong move up today, which makes me believe that the sell into the close was the final flag, rather the start of another leg down. Market is at huge support with the bull trend line from October and no one expects it to break on the first try. Can we dip below before a stronger pullback? Sure. Odds still favor the bulls for a pullback, at least to the 4h again, like the bull spike today. I have drawn 2 potential paths forward but as always, wait for the market to show its direction and not guess it and most certainly do not trade before it’s happening. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped. Enjoy the ride down. key levels: 5400 - 5560 bull case: Bulls got a strong bounce to the 4h 20ema today. Tomorrow they want to defend the bull trend line from 2023-10 and keep the market above 5500, which is still max bullish if you look at higher tf. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are in control of the market and in full STR mode. The bounce today was strong but bears reversed it even harder. They are trading below all important ema and their only target for the rest of the month is to break the big bull trend line, which would put bulls in panic mode. Such important trend lines mostly have to be poked at a couple of times before market can break through. If they step aside for another pullback higher, they need to keep it below 5533 or market will test 5560/5570 again. Invalidation is above 5533. short term: Slightly bullish with a clear invalidation price of 5430. Odds slightly favor the bulls for a second leg up and go sideways around 5500. If bears manage to break below the bull trend line, next support is at 5300. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Closed my swing short from 5700 at 5450. I expect a pullback and will short it again. trade of the day: Buying the opening reversal from 5432. On the 5m chart bears just quickly gave up and market made 97 up. Very strong 3 bar reversal and difficult to take after the 40 point drop from the open. Taking the short afterwards was probably easier and better. Market turned at the 4h 20ema and only spent 1h at around 5520 before bears printed a strong 15m bear bar which was strong enough to go short as it closed. On the chart it was bar 13
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
MidCap vs. LargeCap. Technical & Fundamental Levels to WatchThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024. As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD is about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50 gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC). By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500. Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999. As of June 30, 2024 small caps price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.10, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet, while Total US Market (Russell 3000) P/B ratio is 4.42. I'll be brief. Perhaps it will be the briefest brief over the past ten god years I'm here on TV. DON'T MISS IT, AS IT ONE PER LIFE OPPORTUNITY. The main technical graph is ratio between RUT (Russell 2000 Index) and S&P500 Index, and it back to support that was never seen over the past 25 years, since March 1999. What's happened with market at these times? ⭐ Nasdaq Composite Index doubled in price over the next 12 months (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 4x down. ⭐ S&P500 Index printed +20 per cents (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 2x down. ⭐ March 1999 was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for Small caps vs Large caps. Will history repeat itself..? Who knows... But personally I believe - Yes, it can.
TVC:RUT
by PandorraResearch
Crowdstrike May Signal Stock Market Top But Crypto Trump Pump!Traders, I tried very hard to upload a video to the TV platform today but was unsuccessful. It may be that TV is also affected in some ways by the Crowdstrike update, I don't know? Needless to say, my video will not be shown here and due to house rules I am unable to say where you might find it or if it is even available. So, in keeping with those rules, I will only give the written preview of what the video will be when/if I can eventually upload to Tradingview. Sorry for the inconvenience. Here is my prelude to the video that I made for this post. ----- To help us understand the broad, over-arching view and where our economy may be headed, both in the U.S. and abroad, we must sometimes tackle some subject matter that appears to be political on the surface and makes some people rather uncomfortable. But if we are going to be accurate traders, then we also need to be honest. Being honest involves setting aside our political dogma and preferences and viewing current events with as little bias as possible. Removing bias involves removing emotion. Let's attempt to do that today as I dive in with a closer inspection of the Crowdstrike-caused Microsoft BSoD outage and discuss Trump's recent assassination attempt. We are going to cover how each of these recent events has impacted the stock market and our crypto space. If this subject matter makes you uncomfortable, you may want to skip this video. I'm cutting straight to the chase here and I'll explain why it matters. You see, I learned the hard way a long time ago that if you want to make money in this market then you have to understand what the world rulers are up to and what their end game might be. It's often uncomfortable to explore motives here because they appear to be so uncompassionate, calloused, and uncaring, but we must put them on the table as options at least if we are going to determine market direction and become the best traders that we can be. Following the money and potential motives of the deep state(s) can help us win. This is what we'll do a bit of in today's video. Enjoy.
NASDAQ:CRWDShort
by stewdamus
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 : Temp-Bottom UpdateGood afternoon everyone, Today's Temp-Bottom pattern played out perfectly after what I'm calling the Kamala-Shakeout on 7/24. The SPY price is struggling to find support near the 2x StdDev lower channel and appears to have bounced higher into a new short/intermediate-term Bullish price trend. If you've been following my research, you already know how powerful and accurate my SPY Cycle Patterns are and how they do not take into account news, politics, or other outside crisis events. They are psychologically reflective of Fibonacci/Gann price cycles/structures—nothing else. I believe the SPY will attempt to squeeze higher into the close today, setting up another bottom-reversal pattern tomorrow (a counter-trend Top Reversal). The Counter-trend type suggests the pattern will be inverted. If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY move into a more solid Bullish price trend by tomorrow and then continue to try to break above the $560 level again. Here we go... Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY on weekly stays the course LONGSPY on the weekly chart is up 25% in the past six months. This is beyond its historical norms even during a presidential election year. While there has been some volatility in both directions the climb is consistent and persistent. The indicators serve to document this. The predictive algo predicts more of the same. A price cut when the fed gets around to it will serve to sustain the trend. Lack of it through the summer may cause a fade of momentum. Make hay while the sun shines.
AMEX:SPYLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
QQQ rangbound bearish bias SHORTQQQ on the daily chart hit a hpivot high on 3/21 followed by a slight downtrend of 1-1.5 % overall this past week. Buying volumes are low. The Price Momentum Oscillator has reversed to bearish and the Raltive Trend Index has entered the chop zone and is heading bearish. Price is presently one standard deviation above the intermediate-term anchored VWAP. Reversion to the mean suggests another 1% move downside before VWAP support exerts itself. Price is compressing in a symmetrical triangle. Accordingly, I am expecting a move down before a potential reversal in a VWAP bounce from that support.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AwesomeAvani