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2024-12-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Don’t short new lows because this is not a strong bear trend. Wait for pullbacks. I’d be surprised if we hit 6100 tomorrow but I can’t rule it out. My next bear target is 6035 for tomorrow and there is a good chance we print 6000 or lower this week. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Strongest bull bars that late in the trend? Tough. I have two higher targets still. First is the bull trend line to around 6160 and second is a measured move target to 6300. Bears are doing nothing but it’s also unlikely that we just continue higher in this tight of a channel on the daily chart. Market is on it’s last legs up and these windfall profits will get taken off the table before they disappear. You don’t get bullish this late in a trend, you get cautious. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6000 - 6170 bull case: Bulls did not much today to fight it. Profit taking was expected and I can’t see many bulls buying 6035 but rather waiting for 6000. Not much else to I can come up with here. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears want to test 6000 and the daily 20ema near the bull trend line. 3 Perfect reasons to expect 6000-6030 to be hit tomorrow/Wednesday. I do not expect market to just sell off but rather hurt many traders on both sides first, by chopping back and forth. Perfect for bears would be to stay below 6084. Invalidation is above 6120. short term: Not shorting the lows but looking for shorts on pullbacks. I want to see 6035 and 6000 or lower this week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Bar 13 - 23 was a good first leg and strong enough to expect some follow through. Bar 35 was a good signal bar and bar 38 should have been your entry bar, once it strongly broke below 6089.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
UPDATE for the Markets and Active H5 TradesUPDATE for the Markets and Active H5 Trades 🎂 Today is my oldest sons second birthday. We already celebrated this morning, had birthday donuts and opened gifts. Got my market time in and now... I'm logging off for the day and going to be with him on his special day. Especially after the scary times we've been through with him the last two weeks. Family First ♥️ See you all tomorrow! Here's a last minute 🎁 from my son to you. Updates👇
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RonnieV29
8
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-9: Nothing PatternI'm visiting family most of this week and will be disrupted from my normal schedule for another 3+ days. Please be aware I may not be as available for questions/comments as I usually am. Please watch how the markets are extremely overbought at this moment and will likely fall into a pullback mode. I don't expect this to be a big pullback - but big enough that you should consider locking in profits before the move plays out. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Short
by BradMatheny
Riding US Exceptionalism to 2025 with Long SPY & Protective PutsSize begets size. Records are being shattered. US Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have attracted >USD 1 trillion inflows YTD 2024 for the first time in history. Pro-business policies under President-elect Donald Trump continues to entice investors into US equities. US stocks are at record levels. Is that a concern? Yes. But, unlike other rallies which tend to be concentrated and narrow, this rally has been broad. Gains are visible across industries & segments. The “Trump Bump” has sent S&P 500 above 6,000 for the first time in history. It has attracted additional USD 140 billion of funds into US equities since US elections. Trump’s agenda promise – pro-growth policies, lighter regulations, & lower taxes continue to keep US equities buoyant. The risk of a fall gets elevated when soaring at heights. Long position in US equities pose risks. Among many alternatives, protective puts using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 options is compelling given sanguine implied volatility expectations. US EQUITIES EXPECTED TO DELIVER SUPERIOR EARNINGS In the short term, markets are a voting machine. In the long run, they are weighing machines. Regardless of which machine it is, US equities remain unrivalled now. Momentum and fundamentals both favour a long positioning in US stocks. Stock markets value growth in earnings and profitability. US firms continue to deliver superbly on both. Earnings have risen strong and expected to expand even stronger in 2025. US firms as represented by S&P500 stocks are expected to clock 14.8% in EPS growth (compared to 9.8% in 2024). In sharp contrast, the MSCI AC World ex-US is estimated to deliver 10.8% in EPS growth. ARE US EQUITIES OVERVALUED? Ramping up investments or buying into equities when valuations are soaring can give cold feet to any investor. Are we in bubble territory? Perhaps. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at record highs. But it is not without justification. Rising earnings, promise of artificial intelligence, and American Exceptionalism unleashes the animal spirits. For now, will the bubble pop? Perhaps not yet. Instead, the bubble may continue to grow in 2025. Timing the markets is hard. Timing a bubble pop is harder still. During such times, investors must navigate markets prudently with adequate risk guardrails. Significant capex is being poured into Gen AI investments. If commensurate results are not spectacular enough, stock prices could correct sharply to reflect that disappointment. US EQUITIES ARE EXPENSIVE. BUY THEM ANYWAY IS WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING. TINA is back in action. TINA stands for “There Is No Alternative.” Where else in the world, apart from the US, is an economy that is large enough, safe, resilient, and offers the greatest upside to growth. No where else. That is American exceptionalism. Solid earnings growth expectations, rising productivity, consumers in good health, pro-business policy expectations, and light touch regulations collectively contribute to analysts’ overweight rating on the US equities. Fund flows into ETFs vindicates market expectations. US equities are expensive. It may get even more expensive in 2025. WSJ reported recently that 12-month forward P/E ratios are at 22.3x earnings. S&P 500 forecasts for end of 2025 remain vastly bullish ranging from 6400 to 7000. In sharp contrast, Peter Berezin of BCA Research expects sharp correction with S&P falling to as low as 4100 by end of 2025. Source: The Street FEAR GUAGE REMAINS SANGUINE Rising asset prices are typically accompanied by elevated implied volatility levels pointing to mounting cost of securing downside protection. Intriguingly that is not the case for US equities for now. The Wall Street Fear Index – the VIX – hovers around multiyear lows. HYPOTHETICAL PORTFOLIO HEDGING SETUP Driven by American Exceptionalism, Earnings Growth Expectations, and the Promise of AI, US equities remain compelling. Risk hits hardest when one least expects it. Securing downside protection when it is cheap is what astute investors do. This paper illustrates method for hedging US equities portfolio represented by 50 units of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust holdings (SPY). For simplicity, this paper assumes that a portfolio manager acquires 50 SPY units at the closing price as of 6th Dec 2024 paying USD 608 per unit valuing the portfolio at USD 30,400. The manager is willing to accept a 5% drawdown and seeks protection for price corrections below. In this case investors can utilize a protective put, which is an options strategy where an investor buys a put option while holding the underlying asset. It acts as insurance, limiting potential losses if the asset's price drops. Portfolio manager buys protective put options using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Options (Micro S&P Options) to hedge downside risk. Deploying CME Micro S&P Options expiring on 20th Jun 2025, the portfolio manager buys protective puts at a strike of 5,850 which corresponds to approximately 5% below the underlying futures trading at 6,165 points. Based on the closing price on Dec 6, the portfolio manager will have to pay a premium of 124 points (USD 620 = USD 5/index point x 124 index points) for one lot of Micro S&P Options to protect a portfolio of USD 30,400. The pay-off for the portfolio manager under various S&P 500 levels as of 20th Jun 2025 are illustrated below: *Put options gain in value when the index drops below the strike price. If index remains above the strike levels, the maximum loss from put options are limited to the premium. This non-linearity in pay-off enables portfolio managers to limit downside even as they can continue to participate in the upside. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Hard to be bullish after this leg up but the structure is clear. We have two big trend lines running up to 6300 and a measured move target. I’d love to see a deeper pullback to at least 5900 but as of now that’s a pipe dream for the bears. The price is truth and it just screams bullishness. Last pullback was 170 points and that would bring us to 5940, so close enough. Can we really go up to 6300? I don’t know but it would be naive to say that we could not. We made 6100 and that already is the most overvalued the market has ever been. So obviously we can go further up. If we print 5900 on Monday, I would not be surprised one tiny bit but that is just much more unlikely than 6300 at this point. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs. comment : Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Bulls buy it all but it’s climactic. They still see multiple trend lines leading to even higher prices and as long as this keeps going, they keep buying. The first pullback will likely touch the daily 20ema soon and I do not expect it to just slice through it. Bulls buying any small pullback, made money for 3 weeks now, they won’t stop all of a sudden but at some point next week, they need to start taking profits to reduce risk. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Same as for dax. Until bears come around much stronger, everything in here is low probability. I would prefer a huge dip down to 5900 before we get another rally up to 6100 or even 6300. Next week will probably be the most important in December. Anything below 5900 would certainly put a huge limitation on targets above 6100. Invalidation is above 5900. outlook last week: short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear. → Last Sunday we traded 6051 and now we are at 6099. Good outlook. short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate. current swing trade: None chart update: Added a potential two-legged correction for next week but not later (my best guess as of now)
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Hey Spy Lovers check this Candlestick Scenarios for future move I suspect it’s time for a good pullback. As we can see, the price continues to fluctuate within the ascending channel, but there are two scenarios I anticipate where a pullback might occur in the coming days. Note: Every pullback is simply a very natural price movement. This does not mean that we are in a bearish market at the moment. If the overall structure is bullish, pullbacks are just part of the cyclical nature of price movement. Here are two potential scenarios in case the price decides to make this natural pullback: Scenario 1: If you compare the two types of candles I marked on the left, notice how the candle patterns have more volumetric, medium-sized bodies than the other. This indicates strength; however, we are not exempt from a natural pullback, which, to complete a trending cycle, broke the structure itself to the upside. Scenario 2: Let’s assume the price becomes quite exhausted and begins the pullback I am anticipating. I have marked two zones of great importance where the price will most likely rebound: First Pullback Zone (equivalent to a block order): Notice how, coincidentally, this zone touches the support of my ascending channel. Coincidence? Second Rest or Pause Zone: This zone must be considered because if there is a structural break, the price may drop lower to this point. Note: The overall structure remains bullish unless a lower structure or demand zone is broken, Until then, we can only consider pullbacks and impulses as part of the price cycle in its upward movement. Thank you for supporting my analysis. TRADE SAFE!
AMEX:SPYShort
by RocketMike111
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear friends, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 607.88 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 596.88 Recommended Stop Loss - 614.33 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
5