Here's what's happening early premarket $2.28 to $4.88 $STAFStarted with after hours pop right around market close, held support line all the way into after hours close and continued with another pop right at preamarket open to doubled level.
Spy!
S&P ES Short setup target 5811 / Put SPY target 574Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has already found resistance at the Fib level 78.6% (6057.75) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 7) has closed below retracement Fib level 38.2% (5963.75). My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (5811.50).
S&P CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 5811.50, Target 2 at -61.8% (5731) and Target 3 at -78.6 (5691.75)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (5991.25).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart (Down Fib from 602.48 to 580.50) shows price to go down to Target 1 at -27.2% (574.52), Target 2 at -61.8% (566.92) and Target 3 at -78.6 (563.22)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (591.50).
SPY & IWM H&S Retest before LOWER?!AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
👏 BREAKOUT 👏 RETEST 👏 LOWER
This correction or crash looks inevitable at this point, got to go with my strategy and where the probabilities are pointing friends.
Can always change but it's not looking good.
Not financial advice
Bull Market is about to Flip to Bear Market!AMEX:SPY
SO EASY A CAVEMAN CAN DO IT! 🤷♂️
It's the same thing on the NASDAQ:QQQ too
If we hold this month outside this WCB, it's over!❌
Not financial advice
Bull & Bear into the New Year | Week 1 2025 $SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY
Last week, our $585 PUT 1/13 was a killer, producing two daytrades that ran for 50% and 132%!
Here is what we are watching for this week:
We have reclaimed bullish trend and expect consolidation within this range from $584.59 to $607.45. Last two weeks have been low volume and profit taking. We are using this bullish trendline for confirmation using 15-30 minute candle closes.
$601 Call 1/24
Entry: Retest and hold of bullish trendline
Targets 🎯: $599, $601, $603, $608
$590 Put 1/24
Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of trendline
Targets 🎯: $590, $584.59
HUGE $1.69 to $9.50 vertical 462% by 10:15am $PHIO🚀 4 Buy Alerts sent out along the way up on NASDAQ:PHIO plus other stocks mentions which had solid moves
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-13-25 : Inside BreakawayToday's video highlights some of the deeper, more detailed research I do behind the scenes for all of you.
My SPY Cycle Patterns are just one part of what I attempt to develop to identify opportunities and to help guide all of you toward success.
And, trust me, creating and reviewing all of this data, creating all this content, and staying ahead of the markets is not an easy task. It takes insight, knowledge, and experience to be able to try to read these charts, plan for what the markets are likely to attempt to do in the future, and try to convey that information to you in a concise format.
You'll see my suggestion the markets will attempt to establish a new low early this week, then REJECT and move higher into the Inauguration.
I know it seems counter-intuitive to suggest the markets are breaking downward while telling you to expect a REJECTION and a brief move higher - but price moves in waves - not in a straight line.
Gold and Silver are pulling down as the initial selling pressure drives a bit of a panic in metals. This downward move should end with a strong rally where Gold attempts to move above $2800.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is the hard asset I believe will see the bigger decline - possibly targeting the $72-74k level before the end of February.
I believe the Excess Phase Peak pattern is confirming the move down to consolidation right now, and that low (possibly near $72-74k) will act as temporary support before a much deeper low is set.
Remember, we are just getting started into 2025. so we have lots of time to try to manage and trade our accounts into profits.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Strategy Winter — Spring 2025. S&P500 Index Choking DiagonalUS markets were shacked on Friday, January 10th, after the December NFP jobs report came in much stronger than expected.
The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, although it remains above its 6-month simple moving average.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
The strong payrolls report further strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates again until at least 2025.
The move in stocks and bonds is a continuation of what has been happening in recent weeks: After a period of mega-euphoric optimism, investors have begun to expect higher inflation driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade and fiscal policies. If bond yields continue to rise, Americans will feel the brunt of it.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets now expect just one rate cut of 25 basis points this year, down from as many as three at the end of last year. The odds of no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled to 28% on Friday morning.
The dollar index TVC:DXY skyrocketed to the Moon, while the yield on 10-year U.S. sovereign bonds TVC:TNX stays well above 4.5%.
Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such turbulence for a long time, as discussed in the previously published idea “Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point” .
I have to remind that the financial market had tough weeks in December 2024, but it could also face a tough year in 2025, as I noted then.
The market was on track for its worst weeks in years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market internals, it was clear that the damage had been done well before the December Fed meeting – and this signal was a historical indicator of tough times ahead.
Thus, Dow Jones Futures CBOT_MINI:YM1! ended 2024 with the 3rd RED WEEK in a row, forming the Bearish Candlestick Pattern "Three Black Crows" on the weekly timeframe, which developed, remarkably, from the all-time highs of the Dow Jones index.
Last week, Dow Jones Futures ended with the 6th RED WEEK in a row - and this is a rather rare event.
Historical backtest analysis over the past 25 years shows that this can lead to a further (at least) 10-percent drop for the Top-30 stock club.
Bulls have done a lot of work, advanced more than 2,000 points in 2023-24, for the S&P500 index. However they were unable to finalize their achievements confidently above the round 6-thousand mark by the end of 2024.
By the way, the same inability in Bitcoin to finalize 2024 above the round 100,000 mark is now repeatedly throwing the market back to lower price marks, as discussed in the recently published idea.
The main technical chart indicates a suffocating bearish diagonal in development for the S&P500 index, with targets for decline down to 5'250 points.
SPY Top: US Federal Reserve Emergency Rate Coming SoonI think it’s pretty clear we have avoided a recession (Jerome, Powell, 12/18/24).
One last final high on the stock market before the recession is coming in my opinion.
S&P 500 is gearing up for a drop to $348.11 or even $218.26.SP:SPX AMEX:SPY are gearing up for a potential crash. Markets and indices seem aligned for a downturn.
What will trigger it?
Hard to say, but watching the stock and crypto markets, it certainly looks that way.
My expectations for SPX / SPY:
➖ Fibonacci 161.80% targets have been reached.
➖ Key downside levels: $348.11 and $218.26.
TVC:DXY
The dollar index is leaning towards growth for now. I think it might follow this scenario. Let’s keep an eye on how things develop.
"Market Corrections Ahead of the Presidential Inauguration."Corrections are a part of the stock market, signaling moments of weakness and opportunity. Here's a breakdown of the current market decline levels, ranging from the recent 5% pullback to the potential 20% drop that defines a bear market. These are the levels that I will be watching to let me know the momentum of this current shorter term downtrend.
Historical Context:
Over the past 50 years:
5-10% declines occur about 3-4 times per year on average.
10-20% corrections happen roughly every 2-3 years.
Full bear markets (20%+ declines) are rarer but significant, averaging one every 6-8 years.
This chart visualizes the current levels, helping traders and investors understand where we stand in historical context and where the market could potentially head.
Always remember that as hard as some corrections and declines can be, they all create buying opportunities for long term investors.
Stock Market | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFTStock Market QQQ and SPY Analysis
Mag 7 Analysis | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFT
SPY: Bullish Continuation & Long Trade
SPY
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long SPY
Entry - 580.51
Sl - 574.58
Tp - 592.40
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPY H&S is breaking. The market may have just flipped!H&S Broke it's neckline and the overall $580 Support.
We are seeing this break of support across the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM as well.
This is all leading me to believe strongly that we are now in a crash or correction in these markets. I personally sold out of all my TRADES and am HOLDING and DCAing in all my INVESTMENTS.
The difference here is my Trades where to the upside and with the markets telling us where we are most likely heading now I am not staying in trades to find out if it will be for 5% or more to the downside from here as this would lead to all long trades getting pulled to the depths of hell.
There are no certainties, and before, based on what I was seeing, I said I believed we would bounce and hold this area (Which could still be the case), but all reasoning behind that has been ruptured, and I have nothing left to believe in that besides small criteria.
To be a good or profitable trader, you need to be not stubborn, follow a set trading strategy, and be reactive to the markets and what they are telling us—not go against the overall trend! All we have are charts and indicators to help us make our best assumptions of what will happen. More criteria pointing in one direction is the way you have to assume we will go...well we went from pointing up and for an imminent bounce to most criteria pointing down for what will either be one of the biggest fake outs ever's or a correction/ crash in the markets after a massive 2 year bull run. Only time will tell at this point, but I wanted to make this post to inform everyone here about what I personally did and what I'm seeing.
I DID TALK ABOUT A CORRECTION/ CRASH THIS YEAR IN THE MARKETS IN MY 2025 PREVIEW BUT SAID SECOND HALF AND THAT WAS MY BEST GUESS...
As always this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE and NEVER WILL BE!
Everyone needs to play their own book and make their own ADULT decisions.
SPY TARGET METGave my levels on SPY on the 4HR on Wednesday if 586 couldn't hold. Jobs report came out on the strong side, gave a great flush to the downside in the morning. 580 target met, buyers stepped in and SPY bounced off of that level to the upside. Pretty easy play to end the week.
SPY Hourly Insight 01/08Today SPY did manage to fall below that 586 level that I mentioned yesterday, and filled that gap below. Buyers quickly stepped in and defended that level again. I'm bullish only if we continue to defend that range. Today was definitely a scalpers paradise, on the hour we ranged and chopped all day. Tomorrow markets are closed in remembrance of President Jimmy Carter. We are double inside on the hour for all my straters out there, which could give us a push to those higher levels if we break out of that consolidation. These are the levels for Friday that I will be watching.
SPY DIRECTION FOR JAN 10THI think we push to 590.58 then once we see a rejection we can go to 587, 586.50 or 585.20.
If we break 584.40 we are going to 580.
Keep these levels on the watch.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024
📅 Fri Jan 10
⏰ 8:30am
💰 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.4%)
👷 Non-Farm Employment Change: 164K (prev: 227K)
📉 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (prev: 4.2%)
⏰ 10:00am
📊 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: 74.0 (prev: 74.0)
📈 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: 2.8%
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
The markets are very sensitive right now with the pause. I wouldn't bet that it holds this gap for long.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
A little more upside, and then markets will need the weekend to digest.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPY Next Move UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in a long-
Term uptrend and the
ETF is now about to retest
A strong horizontal support
Level of 584$ from where
We will be expecting a
Local bullish rebound
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Pre-Market Update: SPY - 01092025 - $586-$586.50 Support RetestWatching the SPY going into Premarket, it lost support at the $588.62 Levels, so we're looking for that $586-586.50 to gauge if the Markets will lose steam and pullback even more (providing better buying opportunities on our other Trade Analysis). The question is always, "How far are really pulling back though?"
Today's Economic Calendar:
Event Type Date Time Description
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Industrial Production
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Merchandise Trade
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Industrial Production
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Merchandise Trade
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 04:00 AM Retail Sales
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 04:00 AM Retail Sales
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM ECB Minutes
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM ECB Minutes
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 07:30 AM Jobless Claims
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 07:30 AM Jobless Claims
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 09:00 AM Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 09:00 AM Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 03:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 03:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 05:30 PM Household Spending
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 05:30 PM Household Spending
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 11:00 PM Equity Settlements
Stay tuned by connecting with us below to discover more at @MyMI Wallet!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 1-9-25 : Behind The Scenes ResearchMany of you are following my research and Plan Your Trade videos - watching my SPY Cycle Patterns play out as the markets trade through various phases/trends.
What you do not see is the extended research and predictive modeling that go into my deeper research, which aims to help traders.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are just one part of my extensive coded solutions related to cycles/trends/phases and other market conditions. Every week, I review and research dozens of market conditions, attempting to determine the current phase, setup, and conditions related to the market and what to expect in the near future.
That is why, in many cases, I will be ahead of the trends by 2 to 5+ weeks.
You may wonder why I'm able to draw future expected price action often so accurately. This is because of my extended market research (done behind the scenes). My work is not only about the SPY Cycle Patterns - it includes many other more detailed market analyses related to key fundamentals and cycle/phase market trends/setups.
In this video, I try to share some of the extended work I do to help traders so you can better understand how all of my research/work ties together to deliver the best information I can.
In my opinion, trading is about what is likely to happen now, and attempting to identify what is likely to happen in the near future - so we can prepare and trade efficiently through any market trend.
As we take a day off to remember President Carter, I thought you might be interested to see what I actually do every day/week in terms of research and software development trying to help you learn to become a better trader.
Stay safe & get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Arch up to 120 till the end 2025?So what is Arch Capital - its not an investment bank or fund or something else - lets say insurance company.
Why its so attractive for me right now: Some financial highlights
Robust Profit Growth: In Q3 2024, Arch Capital reported a net income of $978 million ($2.56 per share), up from $713 million ($1.88 per share) in Q3 2023, marking a 37% increase.
Increased Premiums: The company saw a 20% rise in gross premiums written, reaching $5.44 billion in Q3 2024, indicating strong demand for its insurance products.
Enhanced Investment Income: Pre-tax net investment income grew by 48% to $399 million in Q3 2024, reflecting effective investment strategies amid favorable market conditions.
Improved Combined Ratio: Arch Capital achieved a combined ratio of 80.8% in Q1 2024, down from 82.2% in Q1 2023, demonstrating enhanced underwriting efficiency.
Book Value Growth: The company's book value per common share increased by 5.2% to $49.36 as of March 31, 2024, indicating solid financial health.
ANR recommends mstly buy and medium target is near 120
Bulls and Bears zone for 01-08-2025Yesterday S&P 500 sold off and closed near LOD which could caution momentum traders.
Any test of ETH session High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5956 --- 5958
News to watch:
US FOMC Minutes --- 2:00PM EST
Wishing everyone Happy, Healthy and Wealthy Year !!!
