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Bear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This WeekBear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This Week | SPX Analysis 31 Mar 2025 Well, it’s officially the start of a new week... and the end of the month. A time when markets often go a bit boing-boing as portfolio managers do their monthly “window dressing.” But let’s not get distracted by the glitter - Friday’s price action just ripped the rug out from under the bulls. My SPX slippers barely had time to get comfy before I was forced to swap them for spiked bear boots. Again. Friday’s break through my bear hedge trigger flipped the script, and now I’m locked into bear mode until the charts convince me otherwise. And right now? They’re not even trying. --- Bear Flag Breakdown: What the Charts Are Screaming 🐻 Let’s break it down trader-to-trader... Friday’s move confirmed the break of a textbook bear flag. My target for this bear swing now sits at 5140, and unless we break above 5700, the bear case remains fully intact. Short-term? I'm bearish through 5500, watching 5555 as a gamma inflection point which could accelerate the bear move. Here’s what makes this particularly spicy: Overnight futures are down nearly 1% - not the Monday morning bounce you’d expect if bulls were in charge. GEX is stacked with puts - if we breach 5555, market makers may accelerate the drop by hedging and reducing positive gamma exposure. Momentum is gaining. And it feels like we’ve seen this film before... 🎞️ Rewind to 2022… Remember that slow grind lower in 2022 where every bounce got sold, and traders kept trying to “buy the dip” only to get steamrolled? Yeah. This move is shaping up the same way. A pattern break. A bearish continuation. And if we follow the 2022 script... buckle up. The bears may just be getting started, and the rest of the year could get nasty. --- Expert Insights: Avoid These Bear Market Mistakes 🔻 Mistake #1: Trading What You Hope Will Happen Stop “buying the dip” because you want it to bounce. Trade what’s in front of you. 🔻 Mistake #2: Using the Wrong System for This Environment Bullish systems don’t work in bear trends. You need a mechanical system that thrives on volatility (like mine). --- Fun Fact In 2018, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 20% in December alone, marking one of the worst year-end sell-offs in history. The culprit? A mix of Fed tightening and market-wide panic. 🧐 Fast forward to today… and while the catalyst may differ, market structure patterns have a funny way of rhyming, don’t they?
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
$KRE CRASH COMING ... Not yet tho..we'll find out..Regional Banks seem to be heading on a slippery path identical to the most previous crash pattern back when they needed all the loan Bailouts. Now that all the loans have stopped, I'm sure some banks may be heading towards loan restructuring perhaps, maybe defaults, I'm not sure honestly. I just know that the chart never lies and I've been watching and waiting for a long while. I predicted the first crash back then and I currently have no doubts with the current chart ahead of me. As always, I will do my best to provide the best insight possible into these speculations. Currently we have the Daily breaking trend and the bar count getting close to the previous 141 bars. The only difference is that we bounce off the 100% retracement. If we continue to lose the 1.27, we'll be headed for the 1.61..... updates soon.
AMEX:KRE
by TazmanianTrader
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 31 – April 4, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report: The March employment data, set for release on Friday, April 4, is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with forecasts predicting an increase of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%. This report will be closely monitored for signs of economic momentum and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy. ​ 🇺🇸💼 President Trump's Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his "reciprocal tariffs" plan on Wednesday, April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement is anticipated to include a 25% duty on imported vehicles, which could significantly impact the automotive industry and broader market sentiment. Investors are bracing for potential volatility in response to these trade policy developments. ​ 🇺🇸📊 Manufacturing and Services Sector Updates: Key indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, April 1, is expected to show a slight contraction with a forecast of 49.5%, down from 50.3% in February. The ISM Services PMI, set for release on Thursday, April 3, is projected at 53.0%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. These reports will provide insights into the health of these critical sectors. ​ MarketWatch 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, March 31: 🏭 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 45.5​ Previous: 43.6​ Measures business conditions in the Chicago area, with readings below 50 indicating contraction.​ 📅 Tuesday, April 1: 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Indicates the total amount spent on construction projects, reflecting trends in the construction industry.​ 📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 7.7 million​ Previous: 7.7 million​ Provides insight into labor demand by measuring the number of job vacancies.​ 📅 Wednesday, April 2: 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.6%​ Previous: 1.7%​ Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, indicating manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Thursday, April 3: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 226,000​ Previous: 224,000​ Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into labor market conditions.​ 📊 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -$123.0 billion​ Previous: -$131.4 billion​ Indicates the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​ 📅 Friday, April 4: 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: 0.3%​ Measures the change in earnings per hour for workers, indicating wage inflation.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
The Greatest Opportunity of Your Life : Answering QuestionsThis video is an answer to Luck264's question about potential price rotation. I go into much more details because I want to highlight the need to keep price action in perspective related to overall (broader) and more immediate (shorter-term) trends. Additionally, I try to highlight what I've been trying to tell all of you over the past 3+ years... The next 3-%+ years are the GREATEST OPPORTUNITY OF YOUR LIFE. You can't even imagine the potential for gains unless I try to draw it out for you. So, here you go. This video highlights why price is the ultimate indicator and why my research/data is superior to many other types of analysis. My data is factual, process-based, and results in A or B outcomes. I don't mess around with too many indicators because I find them confusing at times. Price tells me everything I need to know - learn what I do to improve your trading. Hope you enjoy this video. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
SPY Price Projection: Mid-2025 TargetRevealing Market Trends: Logarithmic Regression Analysis Indicates Bullish Path for SPY In the ever-evolving realm of financial analysis, the search for reliable predictions remains ongoing. Logarithmic scale regression analysis, coupled with potent indicators, has emerged as a promising tool for discerning trends, particularly regarding assets like the SPY. This analysis delves into the utilization of logarithmic scale regression alongside two robust indicators, offering insights into the potential trajectory of the SPY's price movement. It's essential to note that the interpretations and predictions presented are based on my analysis alone and should not be construed as financial advice. As with any market analysis, uncertainties persist, and actual outcomes may diverge from projections. Logarithmic scale regression accounts for the exponential nature of price movements, providing a nuanced perspective on long-term trends. When combined with indicators such as moving averages or momentum oscillators, the analysis gains depth, revealing not only the direction but also the strength of the trend. After meticulous examination of historical data and the application of analytical tools, our analysis suggests a bullish trajectory for the SPY, with a projected price nearing 620 EUR by mid-2025. This projection implies a significant uptrend from the current date, with a potential increase of approximately 20% over the specified timeframe. However, it's crucial to approach such forecasts with caution, recognizing the inherent risks associated with financial markets. While our analysis indicates a positive outlook, market conditions can change rapidly, leading to deviations from expected trends. In summary, logarithmic scale regression analysis, supported by robust indicators, offers valuable insights into market trends and potential price movements. While our analysis suggests a bullish sentiment for the SPY, investors should conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is based on personal interpretation and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in financial markets carries risks, and actual outcomes may differ. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Julien_Eche
4
SPY Set To Grow! BUY! My dear friends, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 555.80 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 569.99 Recommended Stop Loss - 549.79 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
1
SPY is still on thin iceA month back I wouldn't have believed this post though I did expect 10% correction and exited my major position at the top. I post this as pure academic purpose and my own record. I find volume profile the most important tool in technical analysis. Whatever I present here is an educated guess and not pure speculation. Before doing the profile I did a VP study on major stocks, since VP shows more clarity on the stocks Based on Volume profile the sellers will have little resistance breaking through thin ice zone. We could still be looking at 514 easily. Then it starts facing some resistance Market is still breaking through bubble territory. The reason I call bubble territory is because the volume became significantly lower after May 24. Most of the large investors and funds had bought their major holding by then. If fact based on news Warren Buffet and Michael Burry started selling USA market in August and kept selling till end of Dec. WB sold his entire holding of American express, one of his favourite company Berkshire was holding largest cash balance in is history by Dec. Smart guy. So I just followed him. Then I ask If these heavy weights are selling will they back after 10% correction? No way, they would wait for at least 20% or more markdown This give me confidence in my analysis and economic environment supports that too The market will quick fall through low volume region or imbalances. These act like magnets for the price and stop or pause for a breath at High volume nodes and even bounce back to take back some the low volume nodes. These can create a flag structure. This what happened when the market bounced back from 5500 to 5790 and reversed again. I correctly said in a previous post it was a bear flag When the market is euphoric and in FOMO stage it will leave lots of volume gaps which attracts the market back to those levels
AMEX:SPYShort
by krisoz
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$537.50 Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: Energized As mentioned in our trade recap video yesterday, today was suppose to be really bearish and go down more, However, the inflation report ended up being really bad and that just crashed the market all day. I was expecting to see some bounces here and there along the way but it was just straight drill with no buyers in sight. Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System 8:24 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! Look to STR at 1 min MOB or resistance. 11:10 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal 3:36 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-28-25 EOD Review : Brutal SellingI sure hope all of you were able to profit from this big selling trend today. And I also hope you didn't get trapped in the potential for a base/bottom rally off the recent lows. This move downward reminds me of the 2022-2023 downward trending pattern when the Fed was raising rates. What Trump is doing with tariffs is very similar. It is slowing the economy in a way that will not break it - but it will result in slower, more costly, economic function. Watch this video and I sure hope all of you have great (profitable) stories to share with me today. I know I do. And, I'm positioned for the weekend. Ready to profit no matter what the markets do. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
20
SPY Bearish wave count The only one !The chart posted is that of the spy updated for the bearish wave structure . I have now exited my 125 % long position as the formation is forming SO FAR an ABC rally up with two legs if equal we should top today in cash at 5796 5805 in spy 575/577.9 IF the beasish count is correct we should see a 3 wave drop to retest the low or make a small new low for wave B then I will enter the long calls once again for a 5 wave rally under the bearish count the limit is .786 but based on history dated back to 1902 we should peak at .618 to .66 if The bearish wave count is were we are in the Cycle . But if we rally from here and close above 5805 I would see the market making New all time Highs .Best of trades WAVETIMER 1
AMEX:SPY
by wavetimer
1
DJI US stock market forecast 2025-2026Assumption: oct-22 — nov-24 (1-2-3-4-5) wave is over. correction (a)-(b)-(c) is expected. likely structure is a 3 wave regular flat. Time: the correction is expected to last until at least sep-25. Price: it's too early to predict final price for wave (c). anticipated range is 35000-39000. wave (a) shall reach 39600. Long term waves: Major uptrend lasts 25 years. Major correcting downtrend lasts 9 years. Next major downtrend is expected to start in 2033-2034.
FX:US30
by OleksandrSnitko
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-28-25 : Carryover in Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward in early trading. The SPY may possibly target the 564-565 level before finding support. The QQQ may possibly attempt to target the 475-476 level before finding support. Overall, the downward trend is still dominant. I believe the SPY/QQQ may find some support before the end of trading today and attempt to BOUNCE (squeeze) into the close of trading. Gold and Silver are RIPPING higher. Here we go. Remember, I've been telling you of the opportunities in Gold/Silver and other market for more than 5+ months (actually more than 3+ years). This is the BIG MOVE starting - the BIG PARABOLIC price rally. BTCUSD has rolled downward off the FWB:88K level - just like I predicted. Now we start the move down to the $78k level, then break downward into the $58-62k level looking for support. Love hearing all of your success stories/comments. GET SOME. Happy Friday. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
7
Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait...Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait... | SPX Analysis 28 Mar 2025 Imagine the market dressed like Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest—slack-jawed, glassy-eyed, and strapped into a straightjacket made of indecision. That’s been the vibe all week. SPX continues to shuffle back and forth around 5700 like it's lost its meds and forgot where it was going. But if you’ve been following the plan, none of this should be surprising. We mapped it out on Monday, discussed it live in our Fast Forward mentorship call, and here we are watching it all play out with popcorn in hand. Today’s action may seem like “not much ado about anything,” but if you know what to look for… there’s gold in this grind. --- The end of March has the feel of a market that’s had one too many – not enough to fall over, but just enough to slur its way through price action. All week we’ve been dancing around the 5700 level – and for good reason. It’s acting as a triple threat: The GEX Flip Point The prior range high And now, the Bollinger Bands have closed in to confirm this as a possible launch (or rejection) zone. Add in the emergence of a pinch point, and what we’ve got is a market that’s coiling like a spring… but refusing to actually bounce. 📈 Bullish Swing Activated: During Monday’s Fast Forward group session, we mapped out a key level to watch for pulse bars. Lo and behold, the market obliged. I entered a bullish swing trade after seeing those bars fire right at the expected spot. No surprises, no panic – just execution. 🐻 Bear Swing Trigger Set: If the market does decide to do a dramatic nosedive, I’ve marked 5675 as my bear/hedge trigger – just under Thursday’s lows. Until then, it’s a game of “wait, watch, and get ready to stack the next trade.” 💤 Nothing Much? Still Profitable: Look, I get it – this week’s been slower than a BBC period drama. But just because things move at glacial speed doesn’t mean there’s nothing to do. As always, it’s about planning the trade, then trading the plan – not reacting to every twitch like a caffeinated squirrel. And if you’re wondering how the market feels… Let’s just say the “moves” this week have been scratchier than usual, so I’ll be looking for a special cream over the weekend.  --- The first “stock ticker” was powered by telegraph wires and clock springs. It was invented in 1867 by Edward Calahan… who was just 22 years old at the time. Before computers, before real-time data feeds, and way before Robinhood traders turned market moves into meme fodder – we had the ticker tape. Edward Calahan, a young telegraph operator, created the first stock ticker machine using the same tech that powered telegrams. It printed stock prices on a long ribbon of paper, allowing traders to see “live” quotes for the first time. This primitive marvel revolutionised Wall Street – traders no longer had to wait hours (or days) for price updates. And now here we are, trading from our phones while sipping lattes and watching pulse bars ping in real-time. Technology, eh? -- Happy trading, Phil Less Brain, More Gain …and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits? If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure. 🔥 Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's 📺 Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action. No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 28, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Core PCE Inflation Data Release: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February is set to be released. Economists anticipate a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year growth, aligning with previous figures. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, this data could influence monetary policy decisions.​ 🇺🇸🛍️ Consumer Spending and Income Reports: February's personal income and spending reports are due, with forecasts indicating a 0.4% rise in personal income and a 0.5% increase in personal spending. These figures will provide insights into consumer behavior and economic momentum.​ 🇺🇸🏠 Pending Home Sales Data: The Pending Home Sales Index for February is scheduled for release, with expectations of a 2.0% increase, following a 1.0% rise in January. This index offers a forward-looking perspective on housing market activity.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, March 28: 💵 Personal Income (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.4%​ Previous: +0.9% Measures the change in income received from all sources by consumers.​ 🛍️ Personal Spending (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.5%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Tracks the change in the value of spending by consumers.​ 📈 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year​ Reflects changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.​ 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: +2.0%​ Previous: +1.0%​ Indicates the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$786.25 Sleep: :ok: Overall health: Day 1 of fasting, edgy as f I finally got to test Caffeine and lions mane on an empty stomach and it was crazy, really sharp focus but jumpy as well. We started the day off pretty scary, Huge drop to 5720 and instant recovery to the top. Traded a bit on one of my APEX evals that renewed today but Didn't really touch the funded account until 11:20 when we hit the 48m resistance and got a 10m signal. Overall day was pretty decent, 10m and 5 m chart worked really well. Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System 9:50 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal 2x 11:10 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Sell Signal 2x 12:24 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007