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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Bear Market Concerns Emerge Veteran investor David Kotok warns of a potential bear market, projecting that tariffs could reduce S&P 500 earnings per share from $260 to $230 over the next year. This outlook suggests a possible decline of the index to the 4,000–4,400 range, with elevated Treasury yields further pressuring valuations. 🚢 Retail Inventory Challenges Amid Tariff Uncertainty The Port of Los Angeles reports potential lower inventories for retailers due to ongoing U.S.-China tariff uncertainties. Despite a temporary 90-day tariff reduction, complexities in forecasting cargo volumes persist, potentially leading to fewer product choices and rising prices for consumers. 🛍️ Retail Earnings Spotlight Major retailers, including Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ), are set to report earnings today. Investors will closely monitor these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid economic uncertainties. 💬 Federal Reserve Officials Scheduled to Speak Federal Reserve officials, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, are scheduled to speak today. Their remarks will be scrutinized for indications of future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 20: 10:00 AM ET: Labor Force Characteristics of Foreign-born Workers (Annual 2024) 10:00 AM ET: State Job Openings and Labor Turnover for March 2025 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Rising wedge on SPY - Melt up? or Next leg down? Immediate Bias (Tomorrow): Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Low Probability unless there's a macro catalyst): Breaks above ~$596–$598 cleanly Retests that zone as support (watch 595.50 intraday) Then targets: 600 psychological 604–608 upper resistance channel Possible end-of-month blow-off top: 612–618 Scenario 2 – Pullback / Rejection (More Probable Setup): Rejected at ~596–597 zone (which aligns with upper wedge resistance) Breakdown below $590 intraday Then targets: 587.80 EMA cluster (20/50) If lost → 576.44 next EMA + demand level Followed by major support at 565.87 / 563.43 🔥 Week Ahead Trade Plan (May 20–24) ✅ Bullish Possibility: If NVDA earnings, FOMC minutes, or macro data surprise to the upside Watch for breakout above the red wedge and hold above 600 Target range: 604 → 612 max upside 🚨 Bearish Scenario: Wedge breakdown below ~$590 Momentum cracks down to: 587 576 (watch for bounce) If panic selling → 565–563 (larger time frame buying zone) Volume divergence and overbought EMAs support a potential cool-off. 📅 Monthly Projection (End of May): If wedge breaks down → consolidation range between 563 – 587 If wedge breaks out → blow-off rally up to 612–620, but likely to fade quickly Fed commentary and NVDA earnings on May 22 will be major catalysts 📌 Key Levels Type Price Notes Resistance (R3) 612–618 Final upside blow-off zone (channel top) Resistance (R2) 604 Overhead channel line Resistance (R1) 595–598 Wedge top + major resistance Support (S1) 587 EMA cluster + strong local demand Support (S2) 576 Clean structure + prior breakout Support (S3) 565–563 Confluence of long-term EMAs + trendline 🎯 Trade Setups 📉 Bearish (Favored if no breakout tomorrow): Short 595–597 with stop above 600 Targets: 587 → 576 Optional: Add below wedge break (~590) 📈 Bullish (Confirmation-based): Break + retest of 597–600 Target: 604, then scale out at 612 Avoid front-running long unless you see volume + price close outside wedge
AMEX:SPY
by wesu7gcs
2
THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!🔥 THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT! 🔥 Can you see the shift?! VOLUME IS HERE—AND IT'S MASSIVE. 💪💰 Unlike those weak, fleeting rallies that got crushed under waves of red, this one is packed with bullish buyers and offside hedge funds READY TO SEND IT HIGHER. 🚀📈 Not to mention the last time we had this level of above average volume for this long was in October 2023 when we were coming out of a bear market and it was only the beginning of our ascent higher! I'm not saying we can't have a pullback soon...I'm just simply saying the volume is here and it looks like dips will indeed be shallow. ATH retest INBOUND! Are you positioned for the move? 👀 AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-19 : Gap Breakaway In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will start with an opening price GAP (downward in this case) and could continue to move into a Breakaway pattern. Given the recent news of a US Credit Downgrade, I'm suggesting all traders prepare for what may become a period of sideways price volatility over the next 3-5+ days. I've highlighted a potential breakdown range on the SPY/QQQ on my charts that I believe acts as a solid confirmation level related to any potential reversal/breakdown in trend. Currently, the trend is still BULLISH. If price falls below my breakdown range (the angled rectangle on my charts) - then I believe price will have broken this upward FLAGGING trend channel and will begin to move downward - targeting lower support levels. This is a critical time for the markets. If we fail to move higher at these levels, we have a long way to go (downward) before we attempt to find any support. Gold and Silver appear to be attempting to break the FLAG HIGH of an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. This could prompt a strong rally phase back above $3300/$33 for Gold/Silver over the next few days. Time will tell how things play out. BTCUSD appears to be REJECTING the recent highs within a consolidation range. If this rejection continues, I see BTCUSD moving downward - trying to reach the $95k (or lower) looking for support. Remember, we are still generally BULLISH and moving upward within the FLAGGING channel. If we do get a breakdown in price over the next few days, it will become clearly evident on the charts and we'll have to begin to change our expectations. Right now - HEDGE. Get Some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK): FAQ guide before investing🚀 Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK): A Deep Dive into Holdings and Hypothetical Returns 🌟 The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is a popular exchange-traded fund offering investors access to some of the largest and most dynamic growth-oriented companies in the U.S. market. MGK closely tracks the CRSP US Mega Cap Growth Index, emphasizing mega-cap stocks. 🎯 Key Features of MGK 💰 Expense Ratio: 0.07%, a cost-effective choice for investors. 📊 Assets Under Management: Around $25.42 billion. 💵 Dividend Yield: 0.44%, distributed quarterly. 🏆 Top Holdings: 🍎 Apple Inc. (AAPL): 14.34% 🖥️ Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): 11.93% 🎮 NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): 10.70% 📦 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): 7.63% 📱 Meta Platforms Inc. (META): 4.33% 🔌 Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 3.54% 🚗 Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 3.22% 💊 Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY): 3.20% 💳 Visa Inc. (V): 2.76% 🔍 Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): 2.31% 📌 Sector Allocation: 💻 Technology: ~52.8% 🛒 Consumer Discretionary: 15.9% 📡 Communication Services: 11.0% 📈 Performance Overview MGK has consistently demonstrated strong returns: 🗓️ Year-to-Date (YTD): 0.96% 📅 1-Year Return: ~21.09% 📆 3-Year Return: ~23.26% 📊 5-Year Return: ~19.26% 💸 Hypothetical Investment Scenarios Assuming an average annual return of 19.26%, here's how various investments might grow over five years: 💲 $10,000 Investment: Year 1: $11,926 Year 2: $14,219 Year 3: $16,951 Year 4: $20,207 Year 5: $24,070 💲 $100,000 Investment: Year 1: $119,260 Year 2: $142,190 Year 3: $169,510 Year 4: $202,070 Year 5: $240,700 💲 $1,000,000 Investment: Year 1: $1,192,600 Year 2: $1,421,900 Year 3: $1,695,100 Year 4: $2,020,700 Year 5: $2,407,000 ⚠️ Note: These returns are hypothetical and assume consistent annual performance, which may not reflect actual market volatility. 🔑 Considerations for Investors 🎯 Concentration Risk: MGK heavily invests in technology and a few major stocks, tying its success closely to these specific companies. 📉 Market Volatility: Although historically strong, MGK can be highly volatile, particularly during tech-sector downturns. 📈 Long-Term Growth: Ideal for investors seeking significant long-term capital appreciation through prominent U.S. growth firms. 📌 In Summary: MGK provides focused exposure to U.S. mega-cap growth stocks with a strong track record. Investors should consider portfolio diversification carefully due to its sector concentration.
AMEX:MGKEducation
by ProjectSyndicate
28
ES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) - Support Trendline Price Test -DailyES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) price is currently testing a support trendline around $5900. If several daily Price candles close below $5865 this month, a pullback in the price can occur (rising wedge pattern). Volume has been decreasing in May 2025, compared to March and April. Finance and Technology corporate earnings season has passed. The U.S. government 90-day tariff pause is set to expire in early July (pending trade deal negotiations with other countries). Tariff and trade deal news, breaking news, corporate earnings, government law changes, consumer sentiment, inflation data, the FOMC, and presidential announcements can all affect the prices of stocks and ETFs.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by NoFomoCharts
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 19–23, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 19–23, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Moody's Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over rising national debt and interest payment ratios. This move aligns Moody's with previous downgrades by Fitch and S&P Global, potentially impacting investor sentiment and increasing market volatility. 🛍️ Retail Earnings in Focus Major U.S. retailers, including Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ), Lowe’s ( NYSE:LOW ), Target ( NYSE:TGT ), TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), Ross Stores ( NASDAQ:ROST ), and Ralph Lauren ( NYSE:RL ), are set to report earnings this week. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing tariff concerns. 💬 Federal Reserve Officials Scheduled to Speak Several Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak this week. Their remarks will be scrutinized for indications of future monetary policy directions, especially in light of recent economic data and market developments. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 19: 8:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks. 8:45 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams speak. 10:00 AM ET: U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for April. 📅 Tuesday, May 20: 8:30 AM ET: Building Permits and Housing Starts for April. 10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks. 📅 Wednesday, May 21: 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales for April. 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report. 📅 Thursday, May 22: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims. 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI for May. 📅 Friday, May 23: 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for April. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY Daily Chart Taz Plan - May 2025 into June-July Breakdown📉 SPY Daily Chart Trading Plan — May 2025 Thesis: Price has returned to the exact level ($594.20) where the February impulse breakdown began. This zone is acting as a Lower High rejection within a broader bearish structure. A clean rejection here opens the door to multiple inefficiency fills below. 🔍 Structure Breakdown: Feb High (ATH): $613.23 Feb Open: $592.67 Feb Close (last green candle before impulse): $594.20 Current Price: $594.20 Marked LH: $592.50 This is a rally back into rejection, not strength. 📉 Key Zones & Gaps: 🔺 Gap Supply: $566.48 – $578.50 🔺 Wick Gap: $558 – $566 → Needs a full-body candle to initiate fill 🟥 FVG (4/22): $528 – $541.52 🧱 Major Support: $481.80 🧠 Trade Plan: Short Entry 1 (Confirmation-Based): 🔻 Red candle rejection under $592.50 = starter short 🔻 Watch RSI and MACD for momentum fade Short Entry 2 (Gap Breach): 🔻 If $578 is broken and retested → scale in 🔻 Gap fill expected quickly once triggered Short Entry 3 (Wick Gap): 🔻 Body close through $558 = last add 🔻 Sets up for final flush to FVG 🎯 Targets: $578.50 → $566.48 (Gap Fill) $558 → $541.52 (Wick Gap & FVG Top) $528 – $530 (FVG Close) $481.80 (Long-Term Panic Target) ❌ Invalidation: Daily close > $595.50 = Pause thesis Weekly close > $600 = Structural shift, short squeeze zone 🧠 Final Thoughts: This isn’t just a gap fill play — it’s a structural fade from a lower high back into memory. The Feb impulse wave left behind layers of inefficiency, and price just tapped the origin of the breakdown. Momentum is peaking. If this is a trap, the downside should begin immediately. Let the chart prove it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TazmanianTrader
3
US Downgrade, 3-5-10% Pullbacks But Still Bullish on S&PHappy Sunday!!! US Futures open lower after Friday's close and Moody's downgrade. Last time this occurred in 2011, the S&P dropped around 10% from the "news." This is all interesting timing but I'm still liking pullbacks for opportunities to position bullish in the US indexes (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow) Because the melt-up continues to run (US/China gap last week and drift higher), I'm trying to stay patient for a pause or pullback Trump and Bessent are still chirping about Tariffs and a government "detox" so a round of trade war related news may help calm the market's red hot advance post April 7 lows I'm selling calls on owned positions for income. I'm waiting for more favorable levels to add new positions, but within 3-4% of all time highs for the S&P and Nasdaq I don't think anybody will be surprised to see the all-time highs revisited in the near to medium-term Let's have a great week - thanks for watching!!! -Chris Pulver
AMEX:DIA
by ChrisPulver
Buyers Stand By And Be Ready! In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 18 - 24th. The Stock Indices remain bullish. So buys are warranted for next week. Gold and Silver pulled back last week on news of Trump's deals and sanction relief. But Gold is at support now. Watch for bullish setups for buys or a bearish market structure shift before seeking sells. Crude Oil is near buy side liquidity. Look for short term buys before a longer term, high probability sell setup to form. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
$MSTR Monthly Top Form: “Backwards 4” + Multi-TF RSI DivergenceBefore we begin... trading view is restricting my post for an indicator.. maybe someone reported it... not sure... doesn't seem like a problem... it's a TD Sequential ... 🔍 The Setup — Monthly “Backwards 4” Pattern + Multi-Timeframe Breakdown We’re now forming the 5th candle in what I call the “Backwards 4” formation, or the upside-down lowercase ‘h’ — a recurring reversal structure I’ve tracked at macro tops. Structure breakdown: ✅ Strong monthly green candle 2–3. 🔻 Two red candles that retrace the body but don’t break it ✅ A second green candle that re-tests the highs and baits breakout buyers ❌ Final candle closes red → confirms exhaustion → multi-month drawdown begins We saw this exact setup in early 2021 before MSTR collapsed from $1,000+ to $134. The pattern is now repeating — but this time it’s backed by RSI + MACD divergences on all major timeframes. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown 📆 Monthly Inside the “Backwards 4” zone now (candle 5) RSI Bear Divergence: price made new highs but RSI keeps printing lower highs MACD flattening after extended expansion Volume fading for 3 months straight 📌 Momentum is dying while price floats. That’s not strength — that’s late-cycle distribution. 📆 Weekly TD9 printed this week at the top of a tight 5-month box RSI rejected at 63.61 — exact same rejection level as last cycle highs MACD histogram curling while price stayed flat Range: ~$338–$430 → energy has been spent 📌 This isn’t breakout behavior — it’s a liquidity trap. 📆 Daily Double top attempt failed at $406 MACD crossed bearish, histogram turning red RSI Bear Divergence Confirmed: Price made higher highs from April to May RSI made lower highs, tagging 66.90 vs. 74.70 earlier this year 📌 Daily has now logged 3 bearish RSI divergence peaks since February. 📋 Trading Plan (as of May 17, 2025) Position: No current short — stalking ideal entry Entry Zone: $406–$410 rejection zone (upper box resistance) Trigger: Daily close under $390 confirms failed breakout Add Confirmation: Weekly close under $375 = trend shift Stop: Above $430 monthly high (invalidates breakout fade) Target 1: $320–$290 (May red close zone) Target 2: $262 (range midpoint / fib retrace) Target 3: $240 (prior base support) Stretch Targets: $175 and $102 if macro breaks down Waiting for clean structure breakdown before initiating core position. This is a setup worth being early but precise on. 🧠 Final Thoughts: This is one of my highest conviction macro top setups. The “Backwards 4” is showing up again with RSI and MACD fading across the board. Price is floating under resistance on weakening momentum, and volume confirms it. If May closes red, we likely begin a multi-month correction. I’m watching for the breakdown trigger under $390 to begin building short exposure, targeting sub-$300 by month-end and lower into summer if momentum continues to unwind. 📉📦 Let’s see how it finishes.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by TazmanianTrader
3
Time to short MES (S&P500) - CRASH in comingThe assumptions are: 1) The economy is slowing down. Employment data will show it shortly and convincingly. Therefore a summer or fall crash is very likely. 2) The top for S&P 500 is already in. There is always the possibility for a melt up before the crash but I think the melt up has already occured. 3) The next drop will fall below the 2022 low and above or near the covid low. 4) This is obviously not going to be as clean as depicted but the drop is going to be fast and between 40 to 50% from the 2024 top. 5) This is a swing trade over a 6 months to 18 months timeframe. 6) Trump is going to keep messing with the tariffs until the damage to the economy takes a very long time to recover. Markets will discount this at a higher interest rate which will be very harsh for the markets. I am starting to take positions now and will add if it moves up.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by adventurous51
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-16 : Gap Potential PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to GAP at the open. The current price structure suggests the SPY/QQQ are in an upward FLAGGING formation related to a broad Excess Phase Peak pattern. I believe this upward trend will continue until price attempts to break either the upper previous Ultimate High pattern or break the lower channel of the current FLAGGING formation. The wonderful thing about these Excess Phase Peak patterns, and other techniques I'm trying to teach you, is that they provide very clear triggers/directions/opportunities for traders who understand these patterns. Today, I highlight my SPY Bias (Primary & Secondary) trending system that shows the SPY is much weaker than many people believe. Because of this, I believe we are potentially nearing an Exhaustion Peak in the SPY/QQQ - time will tell. The use of my extended Biasing systems and Custom Index charts helps me understand what is taking place behind the SPY/QQQ price action. It's like peaking behind the curtains in terms of what my Custom Indexes and other specialized data can provide. I can see what is really taking place related to price action - moving beyond the simple SPY/QQQ charts. Gold and Silver appear to be setting up an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern off a potential Ultimate Low in price. It will be interesting to see how this downward price flag plays out over the next week+. If this pattern holds, we should see the FLAG end and price should rally up into the consolidation phase. Very exciting for metals. Bitcoin, which tends to lead the SPY/QQQ, is stalling near a peak. Keep your eyes on BTCUSD over the weekend as I believe we may be able to identify how the SPY/QQQ will react on Monday by watching what BTCUSD does. Thanks for being patient and understanding my schedule over the past 30+ days. I've had multiple family member visit the hospital over the past 5-6+ weeks and my world has been filled with doctors, hospitals, follow-ups, work, and trying to keep everyone healthy and away from trouble. It appears these issues are starting to get more settled - which means I'll be able to stay more focused on work - instead of driving around everywhere and waiting for appointments. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-15 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern could play out as a very big downward price move if the 578-580 level is broken. CRUSH patterns are usually very large-range price bars. Yes, they can be to the upside as well (depending on recent trending). A CRUSH pattern is usually in the opposite direction of recent trends. Thus, I believe today's CRUSH pattern will be to the downside. Although I believe today could be very exciting for traders, I urge all traders move with caution in the early 30min to 60min of trading today. I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to establish a range (early trading range), then work to break away from that range. Traders should be very cautious of getting married into a direction/position in early trading. Let the market tell you where it wants to go. Gold and Silver appear to have setup the Ultimate Low overnight. Now, we'll see if metals can move higher throughout the rest of this week and build a base for the next phase higher. BTCUSD seems to have started to roll over (top), but I urge traders to stay cautious of the current upward FLAGGING trend. Until BTCUSD breaks below $96-97k, I would still consider it to be trending upward. Going to be a busy day for me. Stay safe as I'll be on the road most of the morning. GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
10
Gold Market Update: Bears will target 3150 USD🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update 📉 Gold Drops: Prices dip as risk appetite grows and profit-taking kicks in. 🤝 U.S.-China Deal: 90-day tariff pause boosts USD, pressures gold. 📊 Tech Watch: Key support levels eyed by traders for entry points. 🔮 EUROTLX:4K Forecast?: Analysts still see path to $4,000 amid uncertainty. ⚠️ Recession Signal: Oil-gold gap hints at slowdown—bullish for gold. 🏠 Investment Shift: Gold now 2nd-best long-term U.S. investment (after real estate). 🌍 BRICS Buying: Emerging nations hoard gold to ditch dollar. 🛡️ $3,200 Holds: Gold maintains key support despite volatility. 📈 JP Morgan Bullish: EUROTLX:4K gold possible even with growth. 💰 Live Price: Gold at $3,253.40 (+0.52%) today. 📊 Technical Outlook Update 🏆 Bull Market Overview ▪️pullback in progress still ▪️3300 USD cleared by the BEARS ▪️market gapped down at open ▪️3300 is heavy resistance for now ▪️Compression on lower timeframes ▪️Flag on Flag Bearish pattern ▪️short-term expecting more losses ⭐️Recommended strategy ▪️Short Sell Rips/Rallies ▪️TP Bears 3150 USD
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
19
May 14th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +452 Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: 👍 Been super chillax, having some great trading days 😄 Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 10:37 AM SMH/Chip Stock Sell Signal X10 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 2:34 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 3:01 PM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! Next day plan--> Under 5875 = Bearish with X7 sell signal, Over 5900 = Clearly bullish breakout Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025 The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50). This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy · The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500. · Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data · CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling. · Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower. · Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy · On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July. · Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000. 2. Technical Analysis · The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others. · Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway. Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline: ➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00 ➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors 3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally · The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges. · The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets. 3.2. Global Market Correlation · Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure. 4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish. Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears. 4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500 · I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. · There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: 4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SergioRichi